ologhai

GBP. I'm sure it would if I understood it! So, the blue line is just CPI (or perhaps RPI looking at the 4%-ish it's at now), but I don't understand the red line. '10-year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate'? Talk about out of my depth!

Thanks for your level-headed advice, Steve. As you can see from my post to HPC's Gold thread last Friday[1], when I'm not panicking, I feel the same way! From my point of view, there are two main positions; one seems 'rational', the other less so, as follows: 1. Rationally, "the world is collapsing around our ears", and it seems as though there's a sense in which precious metals are deemed to be one of the few remaining oases. It seems as though this isn't likely to change in the short- or medium-term. So, as you say, it may be safe to assume that gold is heading for £1650/oz or more, therefore, just buy and hold. 2. More irrationally (maybe), I'm aware that I might be exhibiting somewhat herd-like tendencies. Lots of folks are (clearly) piling into gold, and -- whadya know? -- that's just what I'm in the process of doing (or dithering about). Uh-oh, alarm bells... So, that's it -- it's a battle between doing what seems patently logical over the sense that, 'of course it's patently logical -- that's why the herd are heading that way!' [1] I tried to link the post in question, but the URL that HPC generates doesn't seem to point to the correct one. Here's what I wrote (post #9338 of the Gold thread):

I find that I don't really know what to do... I bought a little gold about a week and a half ago (the Friday before last), using only about 10% of the money I have 'put aside' for purchasing gold and silver. I had imagined spending about 10% each on gold and on silver for about five weeks[1], and perhaps piling in (i.e. not waiting for the weeks to tick by) if a substantial correction took place before the five weeks was up. Given that we crossed the psychological $1000/oz barrier for gold on Friday (if not Thursday), I decided to hold off on the 'weekly' purchase, thinking that there might've been more of a struggle around that price, and perhaps a sizeable fall again. Are we still expecting some kind of correction (not only back below $1000, but maybe quite a bit lower -- sub-$950, say) in the shortish term, or do we think that it's time to jump aboard before the PM Express leaves the station heading for new and even more fantastical pastures? [1] The silver is lagging because of waiting for my GoldMoney account to be set up -- I still haven't bought any.

I think it was an error on my part to post a vaguely musing semi-question post before you'd finished masturbating... But, by the look of it, climax was achieved! *coughs*

Watching gold and silver prices is pretty entertaining, but I assume that if one's intention is to buy gold and silver and hold them for, say, at least a year or two, to some extent, it doesn't matter all that much when it gets bought. Obviously, it's nice to buy in relative dips where possible, but I suppose it won't make all that much difference for the sake of a fistful of dollars (or pounds) per ounce...

Well, perhaps today isn't such a good day for buying gold, then...

Once again, the story in UK£ is entirely different! Someone should put up that picture of the plane made from dollars in flames once more... EDIT: Oops -- I take that back now that one chart has caught up with the other...

Well, it didn't seem to do them any harm being several years ahead on the HPC! But, I really would like to know why people here think that what they said is incorrect. I'm not nearly knowledgeable enough to argue one way or the other really, but I can see how gold's recent bull-run might be deemed to be a bubble.

What (specifically) makes you believe that HPC.co.uk is wrong when they say the following?

Lately, I've been watching the gold price in UK£ more than in US$, and, having just flicked back to US$ on the BV chart, I'm amazed at how different the graphs look between the two currencies. It seems the gold price in UK£ and US$ mostly follow each other more or less, but comparing the activity this week, in UK£, the price (although as volatile as usual) isn't really going anywhere, but, in US$, there's a very definite climb! Just a further weakening of the US$?

What effect, if any, should we expect today's Budget to have on the price of gold? EDIT: Thinking about it, this may seem (and, indeed, actually be) a stupid question. First of all, the price of gold seems to be a global affair perhaps hardly affected by some piddly little country's annual economy-related PR exercise! For another thing, I know many of you aren't from the UK anyway, so may not even be really aware of 'The' Budget. Lastly, The Budget, as hinted, may actually be nothing more than a PR exercise for the public's benefit, while the folks who really have the power to affect the price of gold will learn nothing they didn't already know anyway! I'll shut up now!

There really is no hope for some people...

So, presumably, when this graph hits its next trough (or a little before), would be the end of gold's bull run, and the dawn of a new era where, once again, even money carelessly invested in stocks will do reasonably well?

This is about ecology, at least ostensibly. It seems plausible that it is more ecologically sound to encourage people to use tap water rather than bottled -- given that there is a choice. It would be harder to ban all other bottled drinks as the general public don't at present have any other way to get them. My point was only that the non-banning of other bottled drinks isn't necessarily good evidence of a conspiracy, which is what you seemed to be saying originally, i.e. 'why not ban all bottled drinks if it's not a conspiracy?' was more or less what you were saying. EDIT: Just to add that I like a good conspiracy theory as much as the next person, but I think that when people scratch desperately around for any conspiracy evidence, however flimsy and unlikely, it only helps foster the view that conspiracy theorists are nut-balls. If there really are lots of conspiracies, any carelessly constructed conspiracy idea must cause the conspirators to rub their hands in glee because, in my view, it just discredits the whole notion of there being a conspiracy at all.

Water, even if it's of questionable quality, is available from the tap in every home. It would be infeasible for that to be true of every other drink that comes bottled, unless people have dozens of taps (not to mention the infrastructure)! There may reasons to consider the banning of bottled water as sinister, but I don't think the non-banning of Tizer at the same time is one of them!

Isn't it pretty much the answer to when everyone should start selling anything -- when they think they can do better?

I started a Buying Woodland thread on HPC.co.uk which became a growing vegetables/becoming a hermit thread! Having said that, I feel that I owe HPC.co.uk a great deal[1] for opening my eyes, and for putting me in what I believe to be a stronger financial position. So, I do still like to hang out there and post. As far as I'm concerned, life's too short to concern myself with how others wish to run their forums. As long as I still feel as though I have something to learn from HPC.co.uk[2], I intend to continue visiting. And I'm sure as long as I'm not deemed to be making a nuisance of myself, I'll be allowed to continue visiting and posting. So, for now, I continue to learn a few things, and they get someone contributing to their website-hit figures. To some extent, it's just tit-for-tat... Okay, so I'm a hippie too! [1] Not least of which was finding GEI many months ago! [2] Which, when you know as little as I do, could be for quite some time to come!

I had a dream last night that I was chatting with a few other people about gold and gold prices. I can't now remember who most of the people were, but one was Margaret Thatcher, and she said that the £ was strong and she didn't expect that the gold price would go up much more. So, now you know!

A quick newbie sort of question: I'm still a little confused about whether there are really any advantages to using PM-related ETFs over buying physical. For example, if someone decides to invest a certain amount in silver, is there any reason not to simply use it all to buy physical (e.g. using GoldMoney)? Or, is it better to only put a portion of that amount into physical, and put the rest into an ETF that tracks silver? Is there really any difference in the end? Thanks in advance!

I'm still waiting to become 'CAP Verified' with GoldMoney. Do you recall how long this took? I think I sent my documents off last Monday-ish. On a (hopefully) positive note, I actually bought my first gold yesterday...

Whistling on a Tuesday? "You b4stard."[1] [1] If you don't recognise the quote, never mind!

"Physicists at the Georgia Institute of Technology have made two important findings regarding gold on the nanoscale." Article at Georgia Tech.

Just because it's only been in recent weeks that I've felt I have enough spare cash to consider buying some gold and/or silver, I don't have any so far, which of course means that, if I were to choose to buy some today (for example) all of my holding would be at today's prices. It feels as though buying into gold when it's had several months of good, solid bullishness is the behaviour of the herd, and I'm trying to avoid that, especially when (a ) I don't feel sufficiently well-informed to work out the odds of continued short-term bullishness, or (b ) it seems that a number of commentators for a while now have been suggesting a correction in gold's price in fairly short order (not least of which are Frizzers' own thoughts as in today's Money Morning). Given that I'm looking towards at least medium-term investment (say no less than a year, and possibly quite a bit longer), would you consider it best just to buy some gold in light of its slight correction in the last day and to weather the possibility of greater short-term corrections soon, or perhaps await a greater correction in the coming days and weeks, then jump in, again for a medium-term period? I accept that any replies won't count as investment advice, but I'm aware that many of you may speak from the stand-point of already having significant holdings (which, of course, were purchased at a cheaper price), rather than considering the position of currently having no holding at all. Thanks, as ever, for any thoughts!

Shouldn't this thread be in the Mining and Precious Metals sub-forum? *hides*