PricedOutNative
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Posts posted by PricedOutNative
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Sorry to read that. Always enjoyed and frequently found your posts most interesting.
+1 I’ve been an avid reader back from your days at HPC!
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I take it ChinaDaily are state controlled? Why are they publishing an article like this?? Why are they undermining their own currency?
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2011-02/...nt_12085402.htmMalls witnessing gold rush as shoppers fear inflation
By Xu Fan (China Daily)
Malls witnessing gold rushas shoppers fear inflation
Jewelers at shopping malls across the capital are witnessing a gold rush as residents spooked by inflation fears look to protect their money.
Statistics from Beijing Caibai, the city's largest jewelry store, show sales of gold and other jewelry have totaled about 4 billion yuan so far this year, a 70-percent increase year-on-year.
Wang Chunli, general manager, told METRO that hundreds of customers are lining up outside every day to buy gold accessories, such as necklaces and rings. To cope with demand, the store has even introduced a string-weave service, she said, adding: "We've also arranged experienced staff to be on duty and increased the number of security guards."
After seeing the enthusiasm for gold investment, insiders predict prices will continue to rise this year.
Zhou Xiangrui, deputy general manager of Guo Hua, an established gold and jewelry store, even suggested that the surging demand could set a new record, saying: "The price is estimated to increase by 10 percent this year."
The price has already reached 338 yuan a gram at Caibai and 375 yuan a gram at Beijing branches of Chow Tai Fook and Chow Tai Seng, according to data from cngold.org, a popular gold investment website.
Concern over the volatile conditions in the Middle East and the debt crises in Europe could also impact gold prices, said Ji Zhiguo, an analyst the Beijing Gold Trade Center. "This year we might see some investors purchasing more than 10 kilograms of gold bars again," he said. "A booming gold market coupled with a stable price increase could prompt more individuals to rush in and invest."
Gold sales in large shopping malls citywide increased by at least 40 percent year-on-year during the first two months of 2011, Legal Mirror reported.
According to China Central Television, about 40 investors are rushing to purchase gold bars every day at the Wang Feng shopping mall in the Xinjiekou area, with most snapping up several kilograms at a time.
Wang Qiming, 34, who lives in Haidian district, said he has purchased both gold bars in malls and paper gold online. "The capital has limits on house and car purchases, and it might be hard to preserve the value of my assets if I save cash in a bank account. So, I've started to focus on gold investment," he said, explaining that he plans to spend 300,000 yuan on 100 grams of gold bars.
"Stock markets change very fast and are not stable," said Wang. "Gold investment seems much safer."
A report released by the World Gold Council at the end of 2010 said China is the strongest market for gold investment and gold accessory purchase.
China Daily
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He’s an engineering graduate, which IMO gives what he says more credence.
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Anyone know what caused today's spike?
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Good work!
It’s nice to have all that info on one page.
Have to say I’m impressed with the effort you put into your online presence!
New GoldStock-beta website !I have just finished a Beta version mock-up of the new GS website
Please have a look :: http://goldstock.co.uk/gsnew.htm
I have included loads of charts that should be interesting to many GEI posters.
COMMENTS are most welcome please
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OK the amounts per DVD are tiny but there are a lot of DVDs produced. I also like the idea of PMs in my DVDs
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Only 75% up.... I was expecting 750% at least!
I thought articles like yesterday's FT front page would increase gold holdings dramatically but I guess most people still put their faith in sterling as most things are fairly stable in price.
People are very slowly starting to wake up to the monetary holocaust that is waiting for them. -
Any idea what caused today's sudden fall?
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Catching falling knives is risky..
Gold on sale today at £633 per Oz!!! -
The end of the financial year is approaching, if one wants to use up their capital gains tax allowance for this year, do they have to sell as much of their gold to provide them with a profit that matches the current capital gains tax threshold which I believe is 7000 GBP?
I take it you then have to wait till April to re invest that money?
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So what currency is it going to accept in return for the gold?
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Do you really exist or are you purely figments of my imagination?
In my experience it is very wise to pay attention to seemingly random or inexplicable events like this. There is no such thing as coincidence. -
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Financial Planner over at HPC thinks the stock market will rally over the coming months!
Who's going to be correct?
If money in printed it may encourage people to invest in stocks, then again I can't see too many firms doing well over the next few years.
(Jan. 6th)A new president will soon be sworn into office, markets are recovering and there is an emerging optimism that the worst may be over. I'd be so happy if that were true. NEoWave structure, unfortunately, tells me the worst is just about to begin. Within less than two months (it could be as soon as a few weeks or even less), the S&P should embark on one of its most violent, scary declines in market history. Wave structure currently suggests a 50% decline (from current levels) is possible in 1-2 months!
The markets are not prepared for this; the world is not prepared for this, but we will have to deal with it. The only way this will not occur is if the cash S&P is able to exceed 1006 before breaking last year's low. If 1006 is exceeded, then the future is not clear and I will have no opinion for a while. As long as 1006 is not exceeded, the outlook is dire.
As most of you know, I turned officially bearish on the U.S. stock market in mid January 2008. From that point forward, the S&P moved almost exactly as expected all year. Unlike the last 12 months, the next 12 months will be the most treacherous we've ever seen. The only good news I have to report is that, after the big drop, the bear market will be over; but, by then, no one will believe me and the majority of the public will no longer be interested in the stock market. Mutual fund redemptions will reach historic levels - within 1-2 years, financial business and radio shows will start to go off the air and the public's disgust with Wall Street will be so high that a pandemic of law suits will breakout.
I do not like being the purveyor of bad news, but wave structure tells me 2008 was just the warm-up for what's coming. Please do everything you can to prepare for this major, financial storm.
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As of last night it started working again, I can only suspect that they fixed it to work with the latest Java VM as my lap top on which I'd not upgraded my Java version never had a problem while my two other machines on which I'd upgraded had a problem for a day or so.
As a general comment maybe it would be better for them to use Flash or Silverlight for their graphs as a number of workplace firewalls block Java.
I had an issue with the iced-tea implementation supplied with Fedora 8.(Applet not initialised).
The fix is to uninstall iced-tea packages (but due to the large number of dependencies
it will remove a lot of other stuff). Install the sun JRE/JDK, reinstall things like Open Office etc.
ABB
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Same problem on Firefox as is makes use of the same Java Virtual machine, I've tried another PC that's not had the Java upgrade and it works, I'll contact Bullionvault about this issue; cheers for the advice.
what browser are you using ?get firefox in the meantime if you are on IE, remember to browse the addon page though for flash etc...
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Since updating my Java version the Bullionvault chart does not work! Anyone else had this issue?
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Come on, which one of you was it?
Someone is withdrawing 60kg of gold from BV. There’s a public notice on the BV website -
All this talk of the gold price falling seems to follow on from the reported saving of the banking system; most experts have now jumped on this standard mantra.
What I don’t understand and it’s a pity we have no bulls on this forum to put the case but is it wise for the UK to get even deeper in debt when it’s got the following problems:
- Over reliance on a shrinking financial sector
- An aging population
- An overpriced workforce
- A large benefit dependent population
- A large military commitment relative to its size
- An overly large service based economy built on debt based purchases
- Young people with the wrong skill set and attitude to work
And thus its ability to pay back the debts must be in question!
Would you give a massive loan to someone about to retire?
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Gold Set for 2-Year Low as Deflation Trumps Inflation
So boys, it looks like you should sell your gold!
(or so the 'experts' think)
Gold Set for 2-Year Low as Deflation Trumps Inflation (Update1)By Pham-Duy Nguyen
Enlarge Image/Details
Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Gold, the metal that rallied during every U.S. recession in the past three decades, may drop to a two-year low as the threat of deflation curbs bullion's appeal.
The number of gold futures held in New York plunged 48 percent since its Jan. 15 peak, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Prices fell 17 percent last month to $724.55 an ounce in London. The metal may drop to $600 by yearend for the first time since 2006, said Joel Crane, a Deutsche Bank AG strategist in New York.
While gold rose since 2000 as the world economy expanded and the dollar weakened for five of the past six years, the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities lost 43 percent since reaching its peak in July as the seizure in credit markets caused economies around the world to slow and the U.S. to contract 0.3 percent in the third quarter. Rather than providing safety for investors, gold declined almost 31 percent since reaching a record $1,033.90 an ounce in New York on March 17.
``Gold is not considered a safe haven because investors are viewing it as part of the commodity class,'' Crane said in an interview. ``Commodity is a bad word right now. Through this whole credit crisis mess, cash has been king.''
Deutsche Bank expects gold, down 13 percent this year in London, to average $861 in 2008 and $750 next year. UBS AG last week lowered its 2009 forecast to $700 from $825. Gold for immediate delivery averaged $887.31 this year.
End of Rally
Gold rose about 220 percent this decade through June as expanding economies, especially in emerging markets, spurred demand for commodities and increased risks of inflation. While the CRB index rose more than 125 percent during that period, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 13 percent and the U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the currency against six of its biggest trading partners, weakened 29 percent.
Demand for gold waned amid speculation that U.S. government efforts to rescue the banking system and the Federal Reserve's decision to lower its target interest rate for overnight loans between banks to a 50-year low of 1 percent will help the world's biggest economy recover faster than Europe. The combination of falling commodities and rising demand for dollar- based assets ended gold's bull market.
Dennis Gartman, an economist and editor of the Suffolk, Virginia-based Gartman Letter, exited all his gold positions, except for coins he purchased at the end of September. ``I feared the whole financial system was coming to a halt, and you need a little gold in that case,'' he said. ``I doubt it will anymore. But it sure felt like it a month ago. There's no value in gold right now.''
Gold Buyers
That hasn't stopped some investors from pouring money into gold. The SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund for the metal, climbed to a record 770.6 tons on Oct. 10. A one- ounce Krugerrand coin from South Africa cost almost $29 an ounce more than the spot price of gold Oct. 27, compared with a less- than-$5 premium at the start of the year.
Zuercher Kantonalbank, which manages about $107 billion in Zurich, said Oct. 15 that its gold vault was full after a surge in demand.
``The wonderful thing about gold is that you still have willing buyers,'' said Paul Sutherland, chief investment officer for Traverse City, Michigan-based Financial & Investment Management Group, which manages about $540 million and has 5 percent of its assets in the metal. ``One of the first things people will buy once they take their heads out of the foxhole is gold. It can take on a life of its own and go to $1,000, $2,000.''
Commodity Slump
Gold in New York was the sixth-best performer in the CRB Index. Nickel fell 54 percent and oil dropped 29 percent. Only sugar and cocoa are up for the year.
``Gold's being treated like any other asset right now, it's deflating,'' said Ralph Preston, a futures analyst at Heritage West Futures in San Diego who had predicted a rally to $1,150 by yearend. ``I'm exercising patience and looking over a longer time horizon for gold to regain, in the eyes of the market, its status as a safe haven.''
While gold may drop as low as $600 next year as investors raise cash to cover losses in other markets, a record $1,500 an ounce is likely in three years as central banks spend more than $1 trillion to end the credit crunch, setting the stage for faster inflation, said Peter Tse, head of precious metals trading at ScotiaMocatta in Hong Kong.
Gold for immediate delivery traded at $732.79 an ounce today at 4:37 p.m. in Singapore.
Revised Forecasts
Mario Innecco of MF Global U.K., who in March expected gold at $1,200 by yearend, said the range now is $850 to $950. ``All the Western central banks have guaranteed the banking system,'' Innecco said from London. ``The cost is going to be higher inflation and paper currencies will be worth less.''
In past recessions, investors found value in gold. The metal gained 78 percent from November 1973 to March 1975; 20 percent from January to July 1980; 2.3 percent from July 1981 to November 1982; 1 percent from July 1990 to March 1991; and 2.7 percent from March to November 2001.
For now, investors prefer paper. Foreign accounts, including central banks, raised their holdings of Treasuries to $1.6 trillion in the week ended Oct. 29, up from $1.5 trillion at the start of the month, Federal Reserve data show. U.S. debt returned 4.6 percent in 2008 and the dollar is up 15 percent against the euro, heading for the biggest annual jump since the European currency's debut in 1999.
``Under deflation, cash and highest-quality bonds are the asset class of choice,'' said Marc Faber, publisher of the ``Gloom, Boom & Doom Report.''
Deflationary Recession
Gold rallied 31 percent last year as the U.S. inflation rate reached 4.1 percent, the most since 1990. The threat of accelerating prices moderated as commodities from oil to corn to rice plunged from records in the past four months. The Labor Department's consumer price index was unchanged in September after a 0.1 percent drop in August.
Commodities producers are among this year's worst- performing U.S. stocks. The materials group in the S&P 500 fell 40 percent this year while the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold & Silver Index of 16 mining companies plunged to a five-year low on Oct. 24.
Toronto-based Barrick Gold Corp., the world's largest producer, fell 29 percent on the Toronto Stock Exchange in October, the worst month in 21 years. Phoenix-based Freeport- McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. plummeted 49 percent.
``We haven't had a deflationary recession since the 1930s,'' said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Illinois. ``Equities will fall, consumers will spend less, and demand for commodities will just keep going lower.''
To contact the reporters on this story: Pham-Duy Nguyen in Seattle at pnguyen@bloomberg.net.
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So Why the spike on NY opening?
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Thanks! I thought something had changed.
I can easily Imagen trying to log onto the site one day to discover it no longer works, just like Icesave ( which luckly I got out of over a year ago due joining HPC).
Bullionvault need to make these terms clearer as people are flocking there for safety...
I have to say that I remembered BV as promising physical delivery on demand. That statement above is far more hedged than that, it only seems to guarantee delivery if you can prove special circumstances. -
I think this may have changed since I joined over a year ago, or is it just me getting paranoid?
http://www.bullionvault.com/help/?FAQs/FAQs_whyBV.htmlCan I get physical custody of my gold?
Yes - BullionVault allows physical withdrawal of gold, but only in special circumstances. The most likely case is when your bank is no longer a practicable recipient of your funds - as might be the case after political or economic upheaval in your country of residence.
It is to guard against those types of circumstance that some gold buyers seek immediate personal custody of their gold. The supposed security may be an illusion. Gold is commonly unusable when stored in the country where it is needed, because use of it exposes the owner to great risks; either through confiscation, personal safety or physical loss.
To be useful as a store of value in uncertain times gold works best when held in a place which consistently recognises foreign ownership rights and is not itself in crisis. Then it can be sold for full value. Its owner will generally find the proceeds are welcome all over the world - even at home.
Since nowhere can guarantee to remain permanently immune from crisis it is also sensible to retain a degree of flexibility, and this is why BullionVault offers a choice of storage locations. We also use a vault manager and technology which allow the choice of storage locations to be extended by us as geopolitical circumstances change.
In addition to these strategic reasons for avoiding personal custody of gold there are tactical ones:-
Privately held gold is not fully trusted when sold back to bullion markets, and loses value proportionately.
Privately held gold is physically less safe than vaulted gold, and very much more expensive to insure.
Upon taking private custody bar buyers must still trust the gold content unless they are competent to assay.
These are the reasons BullionVault offers private custody only as a last resort in cases of unavoidable emigration.
Me too, I'll have to check what denominations of gold you can get physically from their vault, if the price really does start in increase say more than 3X I think I might have to get on down there before it somehow disappears.. -
Me too, I'll have to check what denominations of gold you can get physically from their vault, if the price really does start in increase say more than 3X I think I might have to get on down there before it somehow disappears..
Is anyone else getting nervous about holding anything else but physical? I'm seriously starting to reconsider my position with bullionvault.
Someone is withdrawing 60kg of gold from BV. There’s a public notice on the BV website
GOLD
in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
Posted
Hang on…..
I’ve just visited a couple of websites that sell gold coins and there seems to be no problem buying…???
I’d have thought that considering we are constantly being told by the media that we are ‘standing on the precipice’ etc… that there would be a massive shortage of physical gold and you’d have to sign up on waiting lists etc… Gold is being talked about more now than at any time I can remember but still there seems to be an abundant supply…