lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)

Sure it could.. Obviously, leaving the overleveraged western economies to their own devices, deflation is most definitely what would happen. Question is, will central banks and governments be able to turn a deflation into a stagflation or hyperinflation through goosing the money supply, or is deflation inevitable?

 

..hopefully here we can talk about the arguments in a rational way without the vile and viscious attempts at character assassinations that are becoming commonplace over there, it seems.

can the central banks act fast enough though, to avoid the initial deflation in everything that is.

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=2940

hahaha i was thinking exactly the same thing! I wouldn't be touching a credit card company with a bargepole right now!

 

Today is a great day for Commodity bulls. They are dumping some GREAT miners (such as AEM) with reckless abandon, not to mention the Agriculture stocks, and NatGas stocks and of course physical PMs.. its gonna be fun relieving them of their holdings they are in such a hurry to dump.. all while the Fed is monetizing like CRAZY!!

 

 

..Ahh feels good to put in my first post on the new gold forum. OMG the 'other' forum has become SOOOO hostile to anyone who mentions gold or inflation at any time.. the deflationists over there are really bullying anyone with a view that challenges the new 'consensus' out of the forum altogether.. So much for learning or rational debate!

Deflation could happen ((short term) - and longer term for overpriced assets - houses etc)

is Silver any good against Blue Tongue

seems like everyone is getting on board with the boxing analogies from yesterday

Another good analyst

That is right, the markets are now pricing in a dramatic 100 basis point cut by the FOMC at today's meeting. The official estimate remains at 75 bps, but just about every story I read is predicting a full percent move. This would be the deepest rate cut in a generation. Paul Volcker was in charge of the Fed the last time we got such a big move back in 1984 and that was from a base of 11.75%. This cut would bring the benchmark interest rate down to just 2 percent and doesn't leave much room for further cuts.

 

This is the problem with such a big move, the FOMC is using up all of their ammunition in their fight with the credit markets. They have been aggressively throwing money at the banks and credit markets, but to no avail. Credit is still very tight with everyone afraid to lend to the "next Bear Stearns." I'm afraid at some point the Fed may just have to throw in the towel like Duran in his famous fight with Sugar Ray Leonard, crying "No mas, no mas!!"

 

I read an amusing article which compared the Fed's recent actions to the Whack a Mole game. As each credit crisis has popped up, Ben Bernanke has whacked it back down with a fistful of dollars. But the big concern is that just like in the game, credit problems are now popping up at a quicker pace, and the Fed is quickly running out of cash to whack them back down.

just bought some more silver

Beware the ides of March

I am sure CGNAO would like this quote

Walter Bagehot a 19th century British financial journalist wrote in his book “Lombard Street”, “Every banker KNOWS that if he has to prove that he is worthy of credit, however good may be his argument, in fact his credit is gone”. Bear Stearns’ Chief Alan Schwartz learned this lesson again this past week as did Ken Lay of Enron and Bernie Ebbers of MCI. All men uttered these words right up to the demise of their firms.

 

Think about the words now coming out of mouths of Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke in the United States, Alistair Darling and Mervyn King of the UK, and Jean Claude Trichet of the European Central Bank. Their credit is increasingly GONE and only the printing presses remain to fill in the rest. So it’s off to the printing press they will go… I am expecting a lightning strike somewhere in the markets before the end of the month and quarter; stocks could easily decline dramatically 10 to 20% down in the NEXT WEEK! The fear is reaching a crescendo! Beware the Ides of March! And turn it into an opportunity!!! Got gold and commodities anyone?

RGLD down another 60 cents. If this goes on much longer Bernanke will have to bail ME out.

GOLD TO CRASH TO $600

now then I will be a buyer (edit to add - as long as we dont have interest rates that are above inflation)

How to sort the economy by the Express

Own up who posted this comment

THAT'S IT THEN..

18.03.08, 10:24am

 

We're fxxxxd!.Tax increases on the poorest are not going to help much are they?.We'll be queing to buy a loaf of fxxxing bread if its left up to Gordon to sort out.The man's a cxxt.

 

• Posted by: seb • Report Comment

Bought a dvd recently that had the Ali v Foreman fight on it. It was hot, and Foreman who was used to knocking them down in 2 rounds or less, just punched himself out of it. Ali was amazing though, but paid for it later.

 

Quite fancy watching Sugar Ray v Les Dennis. Pro celebrity boxing, surprised Sky haven't jumped on the idea.

thing about Ali is, his best years were probably when he was banned, a lot of people think Sugar Ray Robinson was the best pound for pound boxer, but i believe someone has timed both their jabs based on the number of frames (film) and Ali's jab was as fast as Robinson's and he's a heavyweight.

With my fairly naive mind, I'm amazed that we are seeing a dow bounce and commodity sell off today. I feel I've been smartly put in my place by the big boys.

 

took a big hit today on silver- stopped out and down £2k (wiped out gains basically). Arrogantly thought we'd seen the last of sub $20 fluctuations. Now my natural caution is raising its head and I wonder whether I should've just stuck with gold, which has been resistant to the sell off and is climbing again as we speak.

 

I know, I know, long term view and all that, but I have a reward dependent, harm avoidant personality and days like this bring out the blubbing child in me.

this should help

Silver prediction

Dow up today

your havin a laugh

Gold vs the Fed is like Ali vs Foreman. Gold is stood there soaking up blow after blow without weakening. The Fed is getting tired and can't keep up the pummeling for much longer. Pretty soon, it's rope-a-dope time.

No the Fed aint as good as Foreman - if Foreman had used the right tactics on the night he could have probably beaten Ali (wouldn't have got near him when he was in his prime though)

whereas the Fed has ultimately got no chance

More like Sugar Ray Robinson vs Les Dennis

They try to push it below $1,000, but it seems difficult.

how much longer can they keep it up?

$1400

History will look back on the United States Federal Reserve System and conclude that it was one of the most ill-conceived, nonsensical concepts ever to have been concocted by a bunch of testosterone addled egomaniacs who were lunging to become Masters of the Universe. Their game of monopoly is drawing to a close and, whilst there may be a few who are sitting with most of the cash, they will come to discover that the other players have left the table. When the game is over, monopoly money offers no tangible benefits. A new paradigm of values is emerging.

Hmm

 

guess i have missed the silver pull back

 

do i continue to have patience in the hope that they will manage to contain the panick - or do i jump in.

 

do i feel lucky

 

 

 

can the powers continue to fool the masses given that easy credit is no longer available to counteract their fall in wealth

good job i didn't feel lucky given what happened a few minutes later

Hmm

guess i have missed the silver pull back

do i continue to have patience in the hope that they will manage to contain the panick - or do i jump in.

do i feel lucky

can the powers continue to fool the masses given that easy credit is no longer available to counteract their fall in wealth

The dollar's dying today. Something massive must be sat on gold to be holding it down at the moment.

If people keep buying physical or proper allocated accounts will central banks no longer be able to manipulate the price - or am i being too simplistic

another reason to invest in gold

Brian Bloom

I registered last year to receive the novel when it is published

1) Yes, Gold is real money. That is why the central banks have it their vaults and not anything else.

2) Yes, the capitalist fiat monetary system is on the verge of collapse. Ultimately WW III with be the outcome, just like WWII was the outcome of Wiemar Republic.

not sure about the verge of collapse. I think at some point paper money will fail (it always does) and i am pretty sure this will happen within the next 20 years. I just think it will take a long while for the majority to realise the governments game. I think they will try and avoid hyperinflation and try and managed sustained inflation (say 10%pa) to inflate the problems away. Managing this right is going to be a problem, and if they get this wrong hyperinflation could result quite quickly.

Also some other countries (ones with savings) could decide they have had enough and start another currency backed with something maybe Islamic Dinar, China (Silver) .

Some more headlines for the sheep

Economists see US avoiding recession

its already in a recession

As I have said before, only a reverse osmosis water filtration system will remove fluorides. You cannot remove fluorides by carbon, ceramic, or any other filtration system. In fact fluorides cannot be removed by evaporation, freezing or boiling.

This company do reverse osmosis and ceramic/carbon etc. The filters appear to remove more than the reverse osmosis - according to their tick list. Would value your opinion on this. Also does reverse osmosis remove beneficial minerals.

hoping for more of a correction in silver before I buy some more.

freshwaterfilter.com

Do yourself and your family a big favour. Invest in a multi-stage (6 stage preferably) Reverse Osmosis Filtration System. The government is trying to get everyone to drink tap water. So if they are doing that you must smell a rat and act accordingly.

 

They are setting an example - because you are next!

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...Zs&refer=uk

thanks will look into that.

was thinking about the whole house filter from freshwaterfilter.com - have just had a tap water fitted at the offices last week.

just had another look - think that their ceramic/carbon filter one can cope with a combi boiler - dont think the reverse osmosis one can

MAYDAY...MAYDAY...MAYDAY. Mr. Market 006 to ground Control Bernanke.... Emergency Rate Cut Need ASAP!...Losing Altitude quickly....I think we have a liquidity crisis that is turning into a solvency crisis....No parachutes on board...SOS!...SOS! MAYDAY...MAYDAY.

what are the Masters of the Universe going to try now

Not tap water.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...ml?hpid=topnews

 

That stuff it forced medication.

tell me about it - we had a temporary change of supply a few weeks ago and the bathroom was like the local baths. Had a guy out from the water company who said the supply would be changing back and that it was safe to drink (with all the chlorine in it) - wife thought it was pointless informing him of the health risks of chlorine.

It could be a decent answer, YES.

Any ideas of what might beat gold?

Water?

I have a link in my signature on "the other site" that seems to have gone un-noticed by the mods. It links to this forum via tinyurl.com so won't get auto-filtered.

 

I agree though. HPC really has turned into some hangout for hippies lately.... all this talk of growing your own food, how investing/profit is bad, etc... Anyone who discovers HPC.co.uk these days has a very high change of thinking it's inhabited by a bunch of "it's not fair, I want a cheap house, anyone who's been successful deserves to rot in hell" jealous whingers.

 

Getting back on-topic ... it's good to see both G&S making a start in the right direction for the week.... (and the GEI board back on-line).

think that is quite a good idea - peak oil will mean that the days of transporTing lettuce 10,000 miles will be very expensive. I think we are going to need to buy more locally for most things in the future -globalisation is fine if everyone gets on.

Welcome GF

Can I start off the discussion by asking you whether you have any other predictions for the price of gold.

IMO the best two so far that I have read are from Jim Sinclair and Krassimir Petrov.

Both of which I put on this chart:

 

 

I thought this morning, it would be nice to add more predictions to it, and see how they all compare.

 

I might skip the Goldman Sachs one of a falling gold price

 

Steve

Is it relevant, doesn't it mostly depend on the growth in the money supply.

i think the ratio of gold to house prices, dow, silver etc (things that you can buy with the gold) are more relevant.

at some point it will be wise to sell gold and move back into productive assets (dont know when that will be though - but the charts/ratio's that some people post on here should help with that decision.

wonder if cgnao could be tempted to appear occassionally.