Pixel8r

How are you, Pixel?

 

Surviving okay, I trust.

Hanging in there. Going through a lengthy court battle currently for proper access to my son after leaving my cheating partner.

But work and finance is all good. Have branched out into doing websites as well to fill the gaps.

Somethings going on.

In just one day, a big chunk of JP Morgan’s gold was withdrawn from the COMEX. It’s been a while since we have seen such a large single withdrawal. According to the CME Group’s Friday Warehouse Depository gold stocks, a whopping 200,752 ounces of gold were removed from JP Morgan’s Eligible category.

 

If we look at the table below, we can see JP Morgan’s total gold inventories fell from 1,398,214 oz on Thursday (7/30/2015) to 1,197,462 oz:

Basically, JP Morgan lost nearly 15% of its total gold inventories in one day. You will notice that JP Morgan only has 115,754 oz of gold in its Registered category. This is gold that is ready to be delivered. This 200,752 oz gold withdrawal would have totally wiped out JP Morgan’s Registered gold inventories.

 

It's not that I don't believe there's manipulation, after all that's what the anonymous HFT bids and dark pools are, it's just I don't think long term market trends are surreptitiously manipulated, although in the short term everything is. I accept the impact of loose monetary policy, but this isn't manipulation, it's mismanagement. The London Gold Pool and gold leasing were open secrets and were clearly connected with the gold standard, so this was "different..." IMO.

 

I also don't believe in the hyper-inflation thesis anymore, so I "may" consider going to cash when gold peaks next. Clearly inflating the debt away isn't working and I am confident they won't try and push the string much harder, because they'll sacrifice the currency if they hyper-inflate. Having said that I reserve the right to change my mind as conditions change!

 

GATA have well documented the longterm manipulation in gold that went on through the 80's & 90's, culminating in Brown's bottom.

There was a central bank gold price suppression scheme in operation for 2 decades, the useless asset gold was leased to bullion banks for a lease rate. This accomplished two things, it got them some return on their useless none yielding asset and it also meant that gold was sold into the market which kept the gold price down and made their fiat currencies look better. This extra supply made up the shortfall in mined supply for 2 decades.

Things have started to unravel over the last decade and central banks are now net buyers.

Do you deny that this actually happened or that it isn't manipulative?

Re your second point in not believing in the hyperinflation case anymore. They have no choice but to hyper inflate the currency, it is not about reducing the debt it is about continuing the game. If they stop monetising the debt the game stops. Central banks are currently monetising more debt than is issued.

HyperInflation does not necessarily mean rising prices immediately, hyperinflation is the exponential rise in the quantity of money. The rising prices will follow at some point, but the currency is already being hyper inflated.

Actually looking more closely at the charts it did drop through the longterm support, but then closed above it.

This market is obviously heavily manipulated we have had tons of metal being dumped on to the market in the early hours, some have been speculating it can only be by the BIS. Technical analysis kind of becomes pointless as the chart can be painted to create whatever pattern they wish and trick technical analysts into believing whatever they want. The recent drop felt like a capitulation point to me with lots of weak holders selling into it, but who knows what they have planned next. I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop the price down out of the channel in your chart above, just to try and knock a few more out of the their holdings.

I think what it will all end up coming down to is physical availability, as physical metal becomes harder to source the price will turn. The GOFO rate went the most negative this week since 2001, which is showing the pressure on the market.

As usual I think it is best just to accumulate physical metal and not attempt to trade the PM market using paper derivatives. Kind of feeling like I may swap some more gold to silver though lately.

Have I missed something ?

The capitulation low came in June 2013 with the drop to $1178, we have been on base building since then. Through my years of watching Gold it always seems to move in a way where it leaves the bulls behind. I doubt we will see another capitulation low for that reason.

Now comes the time when everyone has to take notice of gold again.

I think it's still too early to discount a final capitulation low. At least looking for a bounce first. It could set up the possibility of one more profitable short from the end of this month going in to the end of the year. But its still too early to call IMO.

warpig talked about an interesting indicator to monitor for confirmation of the change in gold direction on 24knews today, the CCI index. Looking like it is about to confirm it breakout with a test at around 504

 

Does that mean that you are expecting an upturn over the next few months and than the possible drop to a final low?

To tell you the truth I am unsure as to what to expect, I have been thinking we have seen the bottom of this correction with the 2 $1180's at end of June and December last year and we would be setting off on the next wave around now.

I have recently sold a property in preparation to put some more capital into PM's, have started feeding some in but am now starting to think that we could see final drop if we see another 2008 style liquidity crisis. If we do see a repeat it could be that you are still better buying physical ahead because the banks could lockup and capital be hard to move.

Think I will probably end up deploying some ahead and hold some spare powder to see what the next few months bring.

 

("Gold looks Set for a Big Run-up"), a recent post, has been turned into a Video:

 

PLEASE SHARE ! And subscribe, if you have not already.

 

 

Thanks for the video it agrees with what I have been thinking of late. I think the gold bull is about to restart and have been positioning myself to take advantage of it.

There is a possibility of a major crash in the stock market and a resumption of the 2008 crisis, where everything gets sold off in a rush for liquidity. If that happens we could see gold drop for a final low.

It seems that is what Martin Armstrong has been talking about in his latest blog post, expecting the final low to appear not before Jan/Feb 2015 - http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/08/01/july-recap-of-few-markets/

The closings for July were quite important in the long-run.Gold on a nearest futures basis closed July at 1281.30. Support during August will lie at the 124000 and resistance will form at 1285.00 on a closing basis with 1318.00 followed by 1350.00. We do not see a possible final low before Jan/Feb 2015. The uptrend line is about where the last lows were. This is typical and most standard chartists will see that break as bearish long-term. We need to break that support to see the towel thrown in by most. So we are still looking for a low under $1,000 and that could form as early as Jan/Feb. We will lay out the details going into September 2015 in the coming report.

 

Now the Hedgie Bears are capitulating on their shorts, Pixel:

- And the "Manipulators" covered their shorts long ago. The Mind-of-Market was wonderfully controlled:

 

Survey Participants Expect Higher Gold Prices Next Week - Kitco News, Aug 16 2013 12:14PM

 

I would say the "gold suppression plan" worked brilliantly.'

The Bullion Banks shorted near the top, and covered those shorts near the bottom,

buying Gold from folks like John Paulsen, who were eventually driven to sell down when the losses got too big.

The suppression scheme may appear to have worked but in effect the central banks now just have IOU's from bankrupt banks rather than physical sat in their vaults. Doesn't seem that great a plan to me, especially as most of that metal ended going East at discount rates.

The "sale" of GLD by Paulson was actually only picked up from his 13F report. This report shows the holdings of certain securities but doesn't need to show things like physical metal holdings. I expect that rather than selling Gold at the low of the correction it will come out eventually that he actually took delivery of gold from the GLD, which can be done in batches of 100,000 shares, which would show as a sale in the 13F report.

Is it time to sell stocks and buy gold? By: Dominic Frisby

The other major difference between the 70's and now is the fact that there has been a gold suppression scheme in operation since the 80's and the western banks have leased a load of their gold. Why is it that those reporting in the media don't acknowledge the proof that GATA have accumulated, or take it into account? Come on Dominic

This story could have legs.

Your starting to sound like a GATA nut.

Or you do very well, if you are on the right side of them, or use them to create and trigger buying windows.

I think the volatility in the metals is only going to increase massively as we go further into this. Most traders will get burnt unless they are extremely disciplined and I think it isn't something that people should attempt. Maybe you all win, maybe you will win big, but also maybe you will then lose it all and get really angry about it.

I prefer to concentrate on real things and not try to beat the banking bar stewards at their own rigged game. Good luck you will need it.

Bubb, I'm not getting involved in a personal slanging match vs JS, but I'd appreciate it if you laid off the crowing and disrespect every time there is one of these cliff-edge *INSIGNIFICANT* drops of $50-100. I keep JS on the radar, but I don't follow anyone but myself. I see debasement and corruption all around me.

 

I know we are in the endgame and I am not about to jump out of my lifeboat, or trade it. Gold could go to $500, I'd just buy more. From your point of view, I am a "lost cause", I'm afraid. However I know that I have the ultimate insurance, kept 'close to my chest'.

The thing is they aren't INSIGNIFICANT if you are a paper trader on leverage, they actually probably nearly wipe you out.

When was the last time we saw a 2.74% move in one day? It is pretty rare, maybe 2-3 times a year, if that. I cannot imagine paying such big commissions in my normal trading. In fact, sometimes the whole options premium I pay is less than 2.74% of the underlying contract. Very often, in fact.

We see moves of that sort very often particularly at options expiries, which is all part of the gold cartels actions to screw the paper traders. Patient physical accumulators have come to recognise these movements and take advantage of physical metal being on sale, which will be the eventual down fall of the cartel.

I am not talking about 2.74% up moves in one day, I am talking about moves of more than that from low point to high point in one day. Everyone knows there is a 2% rule enforced by the cartel on gold. I also buy a lot of silver and there are many days when the movements are far more than that, over 5% a lot of days.

This is my last message here again as I feel you are deliberately saying things in an attempt to get me to post my knowledge. I am sure that if you were half as clever as you make out you will also have seen the movements I am talking about and the above will not be news to you. I have better things to do than to continually defend my position to rude goadings.

You are ignoring the massive spread that GM takes on buying and selling gold.

 

I suppose if you hold for at least a year or two, it is bearable. But you cannot effectively trade on the spreads the GM charges, less your timing is very good. I have traded once or two at GM, but now I mostly just hold Gold and Silver there.

Why do you always need to be so misleading, the commission for buying gold via GM can hardly be described as massive and there is only a fee on buying and not on selling, where as on the ETF's there would be a spread on both transactions.

The buying fee can be made back in less than one day by buying at the right time. I often buy at PM fix around options expiry time each month and the fee is often made up before the end of the day is up. But then I am not about trading, I am more about accumulation.

Here are the current buying fees;

haha.

I set you up there. I knew you would come back with that.

 

Buying Gold futures can be a first step to obtaining physicals, since all you need to do is take delivery.

 

Why do so few people do it- ie take delivery?

They don't want to face the risk of holding physicals and needing to store it.

Why don't you ask those that did take delivery of their gold from futures contracts purchased via MFG, they held warehouse receipts for that gold and still found out that it was lost to JPM as it was somehow still included in MGF's assets.

Using any sort of leveraged paper vehicle to purchase physical PM's in this financial crisis is very risky, that has been proved numerous times but still you refuse to notice it.

One thing I can guarantee to you is this:

From 5 years ago to today, people have done better holding GLD than physicals, for two reasons:

 

+ They have had to bear less storage cost, at least for the average large gold holder, and

+ They have not had any Gold stolen, or lost.

 

We don't hear much about it, but there are many anecdotes of people who have been robbed of their gold, and put into physical danger for having gold on their premises. That type of risk mat well INCREASE in an uncertain future, and I certainly would not want my neighbors to think I was holding physical gold, especially if I was living in a small village.

I would like my money back on your guarantee.

The storage costs for physical gold via goldmoney is 0.18% per year, your gold is stored in a top vault operator VIA-MAT and is also insured and audited. Your gold can be sold back at spot whenever you like for no cost.

Here is a chart which shows the GLD performance against the gold price for the last 3 years (sorry I don't subscribe so can't go back to 5 years). You will notice that the price is slowly moving away from the real spot price, I would imagine this is to cover some of the cost involved in the running of the ETF. There would also be a fee and spread when you came to sell, unlike above.

What is it that they are always saying about past investment results? I truly think at some point during this gold bull run that the GLD and it's investors will come very much unstuck. It just strikes me that there is something very wrong about the fact that the two biggest shorts in the markets, HSBC in gold and JPM in silver, are also the entities that run the two biggest ETF's GLD & SLV.

Anyway I have had enough of going over old ground again, it appears nothing changes in bubba world.

Don't be so blind, Pixel. Look in the mirror !

 

I don't abuse anyone for owning or holding Gold. I own gold, and encourage others to do the same. I help them to get in at the right time, and do not try to dupe people into buying randomly, or worse yet, buying at the top when the fears of being left behind are most intense.

 

The Gold cultists are the one who pile abuse on those who do not follow their example : they are the ones who "pour scourn and insults" on those who disagree, and follow the steps outlined in the Screwtape article. The writer of that article was the one who called them a cult. (But "if the shoe fits, wear it!")

 

I happen to agree that their behaviour fits that description (does your?). Do you really disagree with the Screwtape argument? If not, then Why should you care whether I own physical gold or not?

There you go again immediately, telling me "Don't be so blind, Pixel. Look in the mirror !"

You do ridicule people for buy and holding gold, I am sure I am not the only one who has noticed that trait in you.

I don't try to dupe people into buying gold at peaks. Can you point to any time that I have?

I don't agree with the screwtape argument that gold advocates are cultists, as I said above the same could be said about traders. Fanatical cult like behaviour is far different from encouraging the protection that gold and silver offer in this fiat financial crisis.

1. The group displays excessively zealous and unquestioning commitment to its leader and regards his belief system, ideology, and practices as the Truth, as law.The leader is not accountable to anyone.

There isn't one leader and the gold buyers that I have chatted with are always questioning the wisdom of what various pundits say.

2. Rational thought, questioning and dissent are discouraged or forbidden.

Again complete bollocks, there is loads of debate about how to approach things.

3. Members are encouraged to interact only with other group members. Thus, cult members are isolated from the outside world and any reality testing it might provide.

If that was the case why would I still keep putting myself through talking to you about things like this? Healthy debate is much more informative than just 'learning' one way of thinking.

4. The group is elitist, claiming a special, exalted status for itself, its leader(s) and members (for example, the leader is considered the Messiah, a special being, an avatar—or the group and/or the leader is on a special mission to save humanity).

Again complete claptrap, goldbugs are very open to talking about and to all sorts of people.

5. Cults, particularly in regard to their finances, are shrouded in secrecy.

There is no secrecy as far as I can see, loses are discussed very openly unlike loses by traders.

6. The group is preoccupied with bringing in new members.

http://www.greenener...showtopic=15801

Yes, which is why it seems the Major Two isn't in the right place. He talks about "starting from the $26.39 low" which I assume is the start of Major Three.

This is the way I read what Alf Field is talking about. Basically we have had the major one wave, which is split into five minor waves, 3 up and two down. We then had the major two wave which is a corrective one. We have started on major wave three and have already had the first two of the minor waves within it.

What comes now is minor wave three of major wave three, which should be the biggest gain of the whole bull run and definitely not a time you want to be sat on the sideline. Alf explains how this wave should be around a 500% gain which will take us to around $158.

Okay.

I don't get it right all the time. And saying "be careful" (and keeping some of my longs) is very, very different than telling people to "GO SHORT!" - which I never did.

 

Also, you are not being fair to me, since I later identified buying window which was only a few dollars higher than where I said "be careful."

 

You also fail to mention the many times since then that I declared "Buying Windows" on exact lows, or within a few dollars of the low.

 

Do you know anyone who has called the market better? Many Gurus that you respect say repeatedly: "You cannot beat buy and hold." I proved over many months that it was possible to do so, and I beat B&H by about 50%.

 

Please tell me: Where can I go to find better market calls on precious metals? I am very happy to learn from others, whether or not they post here. So this is a genuine request to know where someone can find good trading ideas on PM's.

 

"Do you actually own any physical metal or is all your ownership wrapped up in some ETF?"

 

I have already made millions being long PM stocks: the "Gold stock trade" from the year 2000 was the main thing that allowed me to achieve financial independence and escape the work-a-day life. So I have nothing to prove.

 

Why should you are anyone else care if I own physical metal? In fact, Gold etfs have so far been just as good as gold. And GLD has been LESS RISKY than owning Gold futures (thru a firm like MFG.)

The difference is that you don't own or accumulate real physical gold or silver you trade it. You say you have made millions out of trading stocks, well good on you but the difference is between you and most 'normal' humans is that you already came from a banking background and have a large sum to play with. Many of the people who are buying gold currently have had virtually nothing to do with trading, they are purely trying to see their way through this financial crisis.

You say that owning GLD has been less risky than owning gold futures, talk about stating the bleeding obvious! I have never said that owning any sort of paper gold trading vehicle is a good idea. The less risk that you talk about in an ETF is nowhere near the zero counterpart risk of owning physical metal.

Pouring scorn and insults on to those that have had the foresight to take themselves out of the corrupt fiat currency system just makes you look like a banker, which is going to make you very lonely on this site as selfish bankers are what the world is revolting against currently.

Categorising those that are accumulating physical metals as members of a cult is daft, exactly the same could be said about the day trading fanatics.

If you really are comfortable owning gold, why should you need to surround yourself with a mindless Jimmy-One-Note support group. Just own it, as I do, and help others to spot the good buying and selling windows for those who are willing to trade a part of their portfolio, or simply want to add to their holdings in a good buying window.

A lot of us have been around long enough to remember the "Be careful gold may be done here" thread that you started when gold was under $1000. I argued with you in that thread for sometime that it wasn't and that when we broke through $1000 next time that we wouldn't be back. You were very insistent that it was not a good time to buy but history has taught us different, so excuse me if many don't want to listen to your sage advice.

If only history was actually as easy to erase as certain threads.

"Just own it, as I do" or not as is more probable, do you actually own any physical metal or is all your ownership wrapped up in some ETF?

Give me a break.

 

I posted the first story, when I found it - It turned out to be misleading- that's not my writing- In fact, I said it might be a spoof. Later, I found the original Daily Mail article, and pointed out it was a CAPTION COMPETITION./

There is and was no intention to mislead on my part. In fact I tracked the story to the end before anyone else here.

 

This story's backgrouynd does not change my belief (based on a variety of evidence), that there is far more Gold supply than the Big Gold rampers are telling you. I will continue to monitor that story as it emerges. And I will bat away the false evidence if/when I find it so.

Amazing isn't it if you go looking for something hard enough you will always find what looks to confirm what you want to find. The original daily mail artcile was actually linked at the bottom of the one you posted.

Yep I was a deflationist and in the winter of 2008 was expecting a HPC of 50 to 60 percent. Then the QE came and then continued and then continued more with apparently no ill effects, indeed the pound strengthened considerably between winter 2008 and summer 2009 and I finally gave up at the end of the summer.

 

Honestly, the mods and owners of HPC should be ashamed of themselves. By banning anyone who even suggests otherwise they have created a kind of crazed HPC cargo cult. If the crash doesn't happen, as any kind of sensible analysis of reality suggests it won't, then they will have played a part in messing up the lives of thousands of people by talking people out of buying. Even if there are large falls in the future, still most people would have been better off buying in 2003-5 or 2009-2010 as they could have been paying off their mortgage.

 

I think that we need some kind of acronym JD. Something like Wanted and Expected a HPC but Surrendered to QE. WEHPCSQE.

There has been and continues to be a massive HPC, just not when you value houses in the pound that is being printed to oblivion. This is the main fault that the HPC website has, they didn't value house prices using the correct currencies.

Ah yeah,

But some here object to negative comments warning about a short term dip.

 

There have been many such moments, and they help create buying opportunities.

But some Gold purists worry that such comments will "scare people off the bandwagon."

You are talking poppy cock as usual, we welcome dips and also treat them as buying opportunities.

Everyone remembers the "gold may be done here, be careful' thread when gold was below $1000. In that thread you weren't encouraging people to buy during the resistance to $1000, you were trying to stoke fear that the gold bull might be over.

Now I am being described as a gold purists and am into 100% buy & hold. The truth actually is that I have around 35% of my assets in PM's, the rest of my equity is in real world investments producing real world things via my business. I have always laid things out exactly as they are for me, I am only not 100% into my real world business currently because of this financial crisis.

I am getting very bored with the constant insults to my intelligence that are being thrown at me by the traders and their sidekicks on this website. I am not ever going to change my mind on preferring trading to doing real productive business however many insults are thrown at me, all you are doing is showing me more of the reason why.