Pixel8r

Mineweb podcast

 

Interviewer: Alec Hogg

Posted: Wednesday , 20 Jul 2011

He is full of it, trying to say that even goldbugs weren't predicting $1600, JS gave that target in 2000.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y--jCrDOSjk

 

250,000,000 oz (50K contracts x 5K oz/contract) @ $40.00/oz = $10 BILLION and this transaction occurred in just 1 minute. Annual world wide silver production is 680,000,000 oz. That's 37% in 1 minute... Thank god the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange started trading silver denominated futures today, it should at least put an end to the margin hikes, as there is now competition in the market place. This can only be good for silver.

Yeah sorry for my silly mistake, I think I was just trying to draw attention to the video as it got no replies. What with all these big numbers floating around (millions, billions, trillions) it easy to get a few zero's wrong, maybe that is Ben's problem.

I agree that the HK exchange opening up should hopefully bring about some more stability and increased competition should stop the rapid fire margin hikes.

Oops I left off 3 0's from the above. Should read 250,000,000,000 ounces traded in one minute!!!

I just posted it on HPC along with a video explaining my thoughts.

 

"Ahead of the curve" = hilarious

Cool, thanks. I will check your video later. Which thread was it in?

No i hope it didnt sound like that. I dont have a timescale but when/if we reach $3000, then that is the point where i will start to sit up and watch the markets a little more closely.

 

Where i was coming from is that as I have a buy & hold strategy, I am aware that this strategy also breeds inertia. You tend to become acustomed to the volatility of the gold price and the danger is that i will hold through thick and thin when the time has come to get out. When we eventually reach the top in the gold price, the downside will take many of the unwary by surprise, but for now, i am sure we have much further to go

I think that us buy & holders on here and other boards stand virtually no chance of missing the top in this, we have discussed the warning indicators ad infinitum and I am sure when the signs start to appear they will be well talked about.

I routinely take a bit of profit anyway over the last 4 years and have been feeding it into other investments. Like for instance last year I bought myself a new camera, a hasselblad H4D 50MP, with profits from bullion. That camera is now earning me good money, better than i have been making from bullion.

The average joe's that i talk to still think that property is the way to go!

 

This week has been a bit of a schadenfreude moment for me seeing gold go through £1000. Back in 2005, a (now ex) friend and I were discussing investing, and despite me taking the contrarian view of the time warning him of the dangers of property investing, he laughed in my face and went ahead and bought a Bulgarian holiday flat. I then told him i had bought a significant investment in gold miners, warned him of the risk of bank/sovereign defaults,(unheard of in 2005), which once again he laughed in my face and publicly humiliated me!

 

Now I dont know about you, but I get a bit hacked off when someone laughs in my face!

 

So I have been waiting for the day that "gold hits £1000" was splashed across every tabloid newspapers front page....(and even "third bong" on news at ten!)....and this week was the week that I had my schadenfreude moment, returned the gesture and laughed in my ex friends face! .

 

As for the Bulgarian flat?......thats nicely underwater now and he has never had a single let in the time he has owned it.

I could tell you three or four stories which are very similar to yours above, property bulls where everywhere and most off them had little understanding of economics. There still appear to be a lot left to me, which is one sign that this is far from over. I have lost a load of so called friends over the last few years due to my stance on property and gold, it seems that it is a common story. It is very good to be proved correct after years of talking about it though.

Have they banned you too then Pix? Ive been banned for no reason. I had my posting ability censored by the mods as I quoted and linked from here what cgnao said about the fall of the pound v euro and then I was banned when I requested that the restrictions be lifted. The place is a waste of time and pinning a new gold thread in the main discussion area is really an admittion that they made a huge mistake that largely undermines the basis of their website. Yes there will be a huge house price crash, but mainly when priced in gold. They may be able to reverse their mistake but golds double the price and they're three years too late. Its a shame that they may have discouraged some from benefiting from it.

Yes, I can still log in but nothing I attempt to post actually shows up. I give up on them, bunch of muppets.

that really is a great graph pixel8r, and shows just how far away we are from a top.

The truly strange thing about it is I have been doing it since 2007 and it still fits, which is amazing when you notice that the chart is actually a log plot. I once forwarded it onto James Turk and he mentioned that it showed the truly hyperbolic nature of the gold price in GBP.

Edit; just realised you way have been talking about the real rates graph, I agree it is but think it would be better if it was done with the shadow stats cpi figures.

250,000,000 ounces of silver sold in one minute!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y--jCrDOSjk

This is something that also worries me.

 

Just as we build positions over time, then my plan would be to average out over time once i feel we are getting close to the end game

 

Its too easy to think we can pick the exact top, so sell out in stages and leave some profit for the next guy

Do you really think we are approaching the end game? I don't think this will end until at least 2014, interest rates have gone so far negative now. If you go off the way CPI used to be calculated via John Williams shadow stats figures, the CPI is currently around 10% while base rates in the US are 0.25%.

From history gold prices continue to rise until rates go to 2% above the inflation rate, so the gold price has a whole load further to go yet.

In the 1970 gold bull run the gold price went from $35 to $850 which is an increase of over 24 times. Things are much worse this time, yet we have only seen an increase of around 6.5 times so far.

This bull run is far from over the public still has virtually zero exposure, talk to the average man in the street and they just look at you strangely.

The chart below shows gold performance compared to real rates (bond rate - CPI) and this is using the official CPI rate, which we all know is cooked. They are currently discussing changing it again to make deficit reductions via reducing social security in the US, I am sure similar will happen here in the UK at some point.

I have just tried to post the graph below to the new HPC gold thread and have realised that I cannot post to it anymore. They really are ahead of the curve.

This is trully going to be a testing time for all of us, when the bull starts bucking can we stay aboard.

 

I have to ask myself am I prepared to ride it up to £1100 then see the drop to £890 ???? Am I staying with the herd or am " I " the herd ??

 

At what point do I exit ?? Maybe I should have answered that question when I entered @ £300......Oh I did.....£500, no hold on longer....£700, no hold on longer.....£800, ok sell some ( only 5 - 10% ) and buy back lower......Dammm it, its still going up..........Ok, sell @ £900, oh missed that, never mind still going up will hang in there.................................... When will this madness end :-)

I think this madness, as you put it, will end when gold become linked to currency again probably via the SDR. So you will only miss maybe 10 or 20% by not selling at the peak. There is no way we will ever see $890 again, too much fiat has been created.

gold price on the bbc news front page.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14195981

I unexpectedly just had one of those: 'I don't like what was said so I will ask elsewhere', moments.

Strange really as the margin requirements on gold were actually relaxed when they increased them five times recently on silver. It is almost like they are trying to distract attention away from silver due to lack of supply.

There isn't much chance of gold going parabolic as the cartel seem to always make sure that the 2% rule is stuck to. I do expect gold break the 2% rule on the day that the next round of financial stimulus is actually announced, but not to go parabolic.

This chart of the daily gold movements over the last 3 years hardly looks parabolic to me, more like a steady escalation.

I think silver has turned a corner, but I'll be happier when we're over $39/t.oz.

You should be happy now then.

Gold looks well poised for highs, according to this sound article:

 

http://www.kitco.com.../jul112011.html

 

COT short positions, open interest, public sentiment, and Wall street sentiment indicate a bullish bias.

Poised? It's already at them.

Gold has just put in a new all-time high at $1575.20.

I thought the old high was $1577?

New Andrew Maguire interview on KWN, must listen it seems to be moving the market immediately.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/7/11_Andrew_Maguire.html

LOL!

 

Don't forget the 144dma.

 

You know funnilly enough, every last gold bottom, all the commentators, newsletter writers thought gold would make one last push lower. Right now, I can't find a single one who thinks gold will go any lower ... you know what means ...

 

The markets have been in sync with seasonality to a tee this year. Given this, I reckon we still got another 3 or 4 weeks until gold bottoms.

Not sure which seasonal chart you are looking at, but this one for the last 40 years shows that have already bottomed seasonally.

Looks cheap to me.

Gold rising all morning but the Yanks are back this afternoon with their fistfuls of paper shorts, foaming at the mouth.

 

which way will it go?

It's the shorts that are doing the covering IMO.

 

If previous spikes are anything to go by, it's around 2 years before a new price is reached.

Dream on, you are as usual not facing up to the reality of the situation. but then I guess you need to cling on to false hope holding your dollars.

There is a massive squeeze going on in the physical silver market. Within a year the comex will have no registered silver, I think that we will see a break of $50 this year and then it will turn into support a bit like when Gold went through $1000.

Here's the video the stills above where taken from, if anyone hasn't seen it already.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HaqwFJj4ZY

For anyone following ECU, there has been an interesting development.

Golden Minerals Company and ECU Silver Mining Inc. Announce Merger of Equals Creating a New Growing Silver Mining Company

How can it go below $0?

 

I take your point, but I think these estimates based on gold as a % of total wealth and also total outstanding debt / the amount of above ground gold is a credible way to value gold at the present time given what we know of best estimates of above ground gold and best estimates of total outstanding liabilities, both on and off book.

 

Therefore saying it could go below 0 and to 1,000,000 is theorectically true but doesn't add anything to an investor trying to work out potential tops and if we are anywhere near them.

Sorry I am not sure what he said about it as I don't subscribe to his service, just caught the headline.

The thing with using outstanding liabilities to calculate the gold price is that they are always changing at an increasing rate, what works today is out of date tomorrow. I think it is much better to value gold against other things rather than a flawed fiat currency. As I said above I find it much better to try and use the ratios to other assets to work out potential tops. How could you have worked out a potential top for gold in Zimbabwe dollars a few years back, a gold to food, share, oil or property ratio would have been much better?

Time will tell. The longer term trend is more significant imo... it also gives you more room to the downside if another correction comes. If you take the latest short/ medium term trend of "42%" as your guide [from the heavy correcting spike down in 2008, which seems an odd point to take as bullion always over-corrects], that would put gold at over 2100 this time next year. Could be, but more likely the price will be around 1700/ 1800 based on the long trend. Why not be a bit less patronizing to other views....a definitive answer could only be found by re-visiting it in a year or so's time. Or again, look at what has been predicted a year or so ago. I've been predicting a slow and steady increase in POG for quite some time... in contrast to the moon rockets, a rare sight these days.

The thing is time has already told, we have been having this same conversation for years! I expect gold to be at least $2100 by June 2012, if not higher and the rate of increase steepened further. I remember arguing with you that when gold was around $950 that they next time it went through $1000 it wouldn't look back, at the time you were still saying it was going to be correcting. Look where we are now at $1550 which doesn't seem that slow and stable to me.

Here's my hyperbolic curve on a log graph of gold in pounds again, which clearly shows that increasing rate of change.