GTG

Cost push and demand pull springs to mind.

There are some elements of living here (Helensburgh, Scotland) that can't be defined using currency.

One of my all time favourite films Local Hero springs to mind.

From:

You appear to have found your sangri la, good luck.

Just as I was about to dive back in, the ugliest contra-indicator appears

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-g...ates-head-lower

Well spotted.... could be a squid trap. Reminds me of their call for $200 oil when it was at $147!

There is a process. Last time Paulson had to go begging cap in hand for his bazooka. What is Geithner to ask for this time? A tank? And at a time political opposition is effectively mobilized. This is why there is only talk of QE2 [jaw-boning the market], but the Fed knows they're on thin political ice. There would be one hell of a fight in Congress over it.

 

Edit

Some "insiders" i.e. members of the Fed regional boards are also in opposition to more stimulus.

I've been thinking about subscribing to Patrick Cox's newsletter devoted to picking promising biotech stocks, he comes recommended by John Mauldin. It's expensive but I'd be using it to get into as many free trades as possible with small amounts of capital then sitting on them in the hope of hitting one or more big success stories.

the inflation is not caused by those who have money (as in cash) but by those who create money i.e. the seignior(s), the people with the printing press.

 

however, the exact point in time at which the currency becomes worthless often depends on when those hoarding cash decide dump their cash holdings. in our case that would be the people hoarding £50 notes and the people hoarding £10 and £20 notes.

 

Mises' crack-up boom:

 

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/crack-up-boom/2007/06/26/

Japanese people having been hoarding yen for many years in the "tansu ginko" (chest of draws bank) at the same time as the BOJ has been financing "bridges to no where", whilst it has had - as the worlds 3rd or is it 4th biggest exporting country? - a world outside it's borders in a debt fuelled boom. No crack up boom there. Japans' bubble burst about 20 years ago, how do you see it being any different in the west.

gov'ts are bankrupt. deal with it. expect much less gov't invovlment within only a few years. they simply can't afford otherwise.

That may be happening already. I wrote to the tax office on 9th March just gone to inform them of a change of address and circumstances. I always write to ensure my communication is recorded in black and white and I keep a copy. Not having received a reply I checked my copy letter to ensure their address, my NI and tax reference were all correct. These were in order so I wrote a follow up letter enclosing a copy of the original on 20 April. Now coming up to three months since my original letter and I still don't have a reply! I will ring them next week but it does make one wonder what is going on.

While I'm here IRS you wrote somewhere back I think in this thread that inflation can be created by those that have the money or words to that effect. Could you elaborate on that please.

The euro's recent loss has been the dollar's gain, which means that it's not the best time to buy the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the most popular alternative to currencies, gold, isn't such a good buy either. The euro's recent loss has been the dollar's gain, which means that it's not the best time to buy the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the most popular alternative to currencies, gold, isn't such a good buy either. Watch the second excerpt from Robert Prechter's May 20 interview with Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker host Aaron Task to hear what Prechter thinks is in store for the U.S. currency and gold.

Just completed an iregular flat correction and embarking on the next 5 wave impulse, next stop $1276.

Looks like another test of the BO area around $1230 (nice and healthy) and then on to $1250 ish.

Don't expect to see much more than a 23.6% pull back at this stage.

Retest of the break out possible now.. then on to $1247

Looks to me we're in a third wave which is further subdividing(third of a third), if that's the case then we're in for a negligle retracement/consolidation followed by a fast and furious move higher next week... is it 1979 again?

 

Right on cue, this is looking like it's going to be one HELLUVA run up, the third wave appears to be subdividing again today!!

Let the power of third waves be with you.

Looks to me we're in a third wave which is further subdividing(third of a third), if that's the case then we're in for a negligle retracement/consolidation followed by a fast and furious move higher next week... is it 1979 again?

I'm also on a free trade/investment here with a small holding after pulling out my principle and dealing commissions.

Not sure why the above link isnt working. Every time I paste it in and submit the messageboard software seems to be altering the link. Try going to this post on the investors hub board and follow the link there:

 

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_...age_id=45505876

Thanks, I read through it but ended looking likethis guy on the Investorshub page:

Hey GTG,

 

Thanks for the analysis. Decided today that it was time to take my initial stake off the table and ride my free shares to wherever they take us. This means I will be left holding less than the 10,000 minimum required by allallan but I think I can live with that

 

The price action in another Patrick Cox pick MDRNA was a clear warning shot just how volatile these things are:

 

MDRNA Plunges 24% on $5.5 Million Registered Direct Offering (MRNA)

Great position to be in on any stock especially a speculative high reward story. As mentioned previously I'll hopefully be able to do the same but will also be looking to reinvest if appropriate.

The link in your post to methinks produces an error report

Error!

BRS was unable to process your request as submitted. A diagnostic message was mailed to the appropriate personnel.

ATB

Closed at 1.15. Up 9% on 5x average volume.

 

I am no technician but Im guessing this is pretty bullish

 

As a side note there is a documentary on the evolution of viruses on Horizon on BBC just now. Looks good so far.

Well done on the risk free trade front.

Yes it's behaving well, pulling back on lighter volume too.

I think it's ready for a pullback though according to the EW count, the RSI is also well overbought. I believe we are still in wave (3) which tends to be the stongest of the impulse waves (along with a fifth wave extension) so I'm expecting a retracement to the 38.2% level of around $1.10, also previous resistance. If that fails there is plenty of support around the $1 level which happens to be in the 61.8% area. If that goes just get down on your knees and pray. The way this stock is going I would n't be surprised to see a 23.6% retracement then a move to a new high... famous last words.

Also supporting this is wave 1 closed spot on the 1:1 AB=CD pattern, that is a classic high probabilty reversal pattern.

I'm hoping to join the risk free speculators club shortly.

As for the fuzzymentals, well .... I'll just let the price action do the talking.

Hey GTG, great to have another join us here on this thread. I'm no technician either but these kind of charts can be useful in timing further accumulation so thanks for that.

 

What do you make of the fundamentals of this company? The actual science they are using to develop their anti viral platform is really interesting I think. From a fundamental analysis point of view if these guys can deliver what I think they can then it will be more than a moon shot in price more like a trip to pluto

 

Thats why i think you really have to get a core position now then use technicals to time further accumulation.

 

How are others approaching this? Anyone accumulated allallans 10,000 share minimum?

It sounds very impressive but then it would to me not having any knowledge in the field or industry. It does look like a patent for a wonder drug is in the making, I particularly like the fact that it prevents the virus from infecting the cell compared with the competitors products which are a cure rather than a prevention. An ounce of prevention being better than a pound of cure. The fact that their "product" (is that the right word?) may be able to be customised to whatever virus the receipient is likely to be exposed to is..... well, like you said a possible trip to pluto for this stock.

Feet firmly on the ground though, without being able to calculate an R2R ratio it's purely a speculative punt to me with a small amount of money (a lot less than allallans recommendation)I can afford to lose. If it doubles my moneyt I'll probably take half out for a risk free investment.

Wave 4's or iv in this case tend to retrace 38.2% so we "may" have (hopefully)seen the last low for this stock for some time. Drilling down on the lower time frames would confirm this (if we are in an impulsive wave) IMO.

Had a buy order in at the support area of 81 cents but did n't get hit so jumped in with a small market order fearful of missing the train (hopefully of the bullet type), I intend to buy a little more if we get a pullback. That'll be a challenge considering I'll be asking Selftrade to deal in them rather than through my SIPP account.

For anyone wishing to join the club here's a chart annotated with an elliottwave count assuming an impulse wave is in the making. If so a correction of wave iii i.e wave iv could be anywhere from the 38.2% retracement - which is where it's at now 0.99 - to a maximum retracement to 0.91. Below this i.e. end of wave i would render the count invalid. It could of course just takee off from here or collapse form whence it came. I'm far from an expert in EWT so take it with a pinch of salt.

Housing Starts in U.S. Unexpectedly Decline; Single-Family Starts Increase

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=a5oDxafZlx2I

 

This is so unexpected, it boggles the mind.

I've read that lumber is a good lead indicator of the US building industry, if that's the case things look a bit bearish to me.

The last time there was a MACD crossover was last September and it's plain to see what happened then. Add in the crossing of the 50dma at about the same time and what looks imminent now, I'd say there is a good chance we're near to another leg down. Perhaps another (albeit thin) argument is that the rally is a head and shoulders pattern.

Don’t forget Capital Gains Tax. You might need to move into it for a while before selling.

Not necessary, the chargeable gain of 18% should be covered by my CGT annual allowance of £10,500, god knows what the rate will be after the UK general election next year. My other capital gains have been inside my S&S ISA, spread betting accounts and SIPP. Thanks anyway.

I don't think you have to move in, you just declare it your main residence. Perhaps there is an MP who visits these forums and can advise?

LOL.... I think ziknik is referring to the 3 year rule whereby if you move in and make the second home your PPR (principal place of residence) you can disallow the capital gain in the preceeding three years. It is commonly perceived that by moving in you can avoid paying any capital gains tax at all as the second home becomes your PPR and therefore exempt. One has also got to be mindful of once the move is made or the election of a PPR is made the capital gains tax clock starts to tick on the once PPR. An election of a second property can be made at any time but is only valid from the date of the election for the calculation of CGT except in the first three years following the acquisition of the second property when you have this period in which to decide and your decision is applied retrospectively. That's my understanding of the rules anyway.

Think I may run for a seat in the next general election

No.

Though 6 months is possible, I expect a lag of 1-2 months, and possibly less.

But there are also lags in reporting, so if we see the BDEV turn in the next 2-3 weeks, it may be late Sept/Oct

or even a month later before we get actual negative indices.

 

You should consider this to be "intuitive guesswork", and no better than that

Thanks, the average time to sell property in the area according to Hometrack is 13 weeks and I'm hoping as it's an attractive FTB property I should be in with a chance of getting it sold before the turn. May have to throw in a sweetener for a quick completion if necessary/possible.

Indeed. I dont think it will last much longer,

But do not expect a downturn in property until sometime AFTER you see it sliding

There are sold signs going up all over the place in the corner of Hertfordshire where I live, including three in my street in the past few weeks. These properties had previously been on the market for months. It's very encouraging for me as I've decided to market my second home even though it will be missed for our occasional breaks away. The opportunity cost of keeping it has been eating away at me for awhile now. It's at the other end of the country but hometrack is showing price increase there too.

DrBubb, do you reckon the lag in the builders share price to the drop in property will be about the same as it was at the top i.e. circa 6 months?

OMG..... still got a mortgage at 70!

I think it is a good idea to keep a decent amount of powder dry at this stage. Of course you should also have a decent amount of bullion. For me it it a 50/50 split. Gold looks most likely to stay strong here for a while given post QE inflation concerns. However, I remain convinced these inflationary concerns are perceptions which Bernanke, the deflation fighter, is doing his most to promote with threats of continuous QE. The real economic forces still at work are deflationary and when they bite next we may only then see a move down in gold and silver. This will be the time to buy with your cash reserve [though it may still be a good idea to still be averaging in a little at these levels]. The big move up in gold will come when debt-laden currencies buckle to half of their former worth.

 

Investment should be considered akin to warfare. You can have a strategy, but without certain tactics the strategy may remain unrealised. Tactics in investment is mostly about timing; positioning yourself then waiting to take advantage of certain developments.

Spot on IMO, you've heard of the Greenspan put now we have the Bernanke bluff....

Another shake out of the weak hands is due.