wren

Good point, and it's interesting how a different impression might be obtained depending on the type of display. I'm only eye-balling and in practice I don't worry about the short term. But the previous approaches (at 800 and 900) didn't have the red candlesticks. I wonder whether errol would be so kind as to provide his style of chart going to before the first breach of 700 way back in '06? Not that I claim any prescience. Just chatting.

Do you mean you want the name deleted, but maybe now cannot do it yourself? If so, admin/moderators could sort it.

Nice one. (P.S. I noticed what looked like somebody's real name in the post. Did you mean to delete it?)

What a laff! That guy Laffer was pretty desperate and waffling unconvincingly. The consequences of monetary policy will certainly provide many spectacles.

Thanks. It's interesting to compare on that graph how the price approached the big round numbers 800, 900 and 1000. It hurtled through 800 without hesitation straight to 840 before a few weeks of consolidation around 800. With 900 it passed through boldly to about 903 before beginning consolidation around 900, again for a few weeks. This time on the approach to 1000 the charger lost it's nerve *before* the 1000 hurdle at around 995. It remains to be seen whether a consolidation for weeks has already begun. At each major hurdle of the wall of worry the beast seems to be getting more hesitant.

Same here. My guesses for $1000 and $1200 over on the "guess the dates" thread probably reflect this desire. But some consolidation and sideways action seems reasonable in the spring and early summer (he says, hoping).

"Bush insists US not in recession" http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7283512.stm Does that make it official then? And the DOW closed below 12 000 at 11893.69.

Welcome aboard.

Am I wrong in thinking that the price of silver does not so greatly influence its supply or demand for the following reasons?: 1) Most silver is produced as a by-product in the mining of base metals, like copper, zinc etc. So, many miners cannot choose to increase their silver production while not increasing the other metals. A side effect of this is that in a recession demand for base metals might drop and silver production could drop with them. 2) In most products containing silver the silver is a relatively small component of the price so a big increase in silver price impacts the price relatively less. 3) In many silver products, there is no really good cheaper substitute. It's a long time since I read these things about silver, so please correct me if my memory fails.

DOW/GOLD and House prices/GOLD are important long-term ratios for me. I'm trying to settle on criteria which would identify a maniacal price blowout, if such occurs. If it doubles in less than a year that might be one criterion, but I'd be interested in more sophisticated and reliable criteria. So long as the prospective real return on cash savings is negative, I'd prefer gold (and silver) over cash.

I've failed to connect sometimes recently at kitco.com. Looking at the Alexa traffic stats, although there's an increase over the last few days, on the 5-year graph it is insignificant: http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details/kitco.com

Nice one. The main words are perfect. It's just the "he had a lager drink, he had a cider drink etc...." perhaps aren't quite for the class investor. But then again riding a bull like this you might need one or two....

A better version indeed. Thanks, reminded me of old days. This could be the theme tune of this gold bull.

I guess we get the feel that this is a more serious, investor-style site. When the magic one thousand is breached for the first time a couple of rockets might not go amiss. Or even some music: However, I suspect the number will be breached upwards and downwards many a time. Anyone like to set up a trvial poll for us to compete guessing the magic day? IMO an even more challenging poll would be $1200.

Very sensible, DrBubb, and it will be better for future reference purposes. And thanks for having us!! (And click the ads, folks, to support the site.)

I fear that you are closer to mark number-wise; I was being conservative. I have only a rudimentary idea of the concepts. But that alone would help many folk in general. Was it Ford (of car fame) who said "If the people knew how the money system works, there would be rioting before breakfast"?.

The US dollar really is tanking like hell. $1.53816 to the euro.

The poll was posted in the main forum and I voted. An hour or so later it was moved to the metals subforum where hardly anybody would see it. I was tempted to post at the time to point out the discrepancy of a poll specifically concerning the main forum being in a quiet subforum, but couldn't be bothered. It would have been pointless. I was never rude and indeed sometimes attempted to mediate reconciliation in spite of my being a relative newbie over there. Their loss, if you ask me. I think it's better for us here and I'm much happier, especially now that DrBubb has said he's okay with it. And like GF said, hpc as a topic is history, it's just a matter now of watching the train career over the cliff.

This will be the first K-winter with globally fully fiat monetary systems. I guess the helicopters were primitive back in the '30s. I really wonder how this will play out.

In the last hours of the old gold thread, I made several posts trying to plead the case that that type of thread could serve as a starting point for people unfamiliar with modern fiat monetary systems and how very new they are: an essential education which could be priceless (I nearly wrote gold-dust ) for people who are unfamiliar with it - I reckon over half the population. As you probably know the last dozen or so pages were deleted and it is now closed and banished to the dungeon. My ability to post there seems to have been disabled entirely. Gold might prove to be a festering sore for them.

This sounds like an excellent idea.

Welcome, great to see you made it!

Welcome.

The suggestions that we are at or nearly approaching the end of the Awareness Phase or the beginning of the Media Attention seem very plausible. However..... Even before I saw this post by marmite I was wondering the same thing. I reckon "fair value" for gold, which is difficult to assign but using the history, is probably around 1/3 of one month's average salary, give or take quite a bit. So we could still be somewhat below fair value at around €650 now. Now consider, where on the idealized boom-bust graph would "fair value" lie? Perhaps others have better suggestions, but I'd suggest it would be below Media Attention and maybe even below, the First Sell-Off like the long-term mean. Furthermore, the price at the end of the Awareness Phase might not be much more than that at the First Sell-Off. So, basically I am saying, along with marmite, that I think there is some real possibility that the First Sell-Off has not occurred yet in that idealized graph. Maybe wishful thinking on my part but what do you think?

Welcome. I registered here a few weeks ago but didn't post until yesterday, after the rebullion.