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qwerty

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  3. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Of course some was, but only to gold bugs and very desperate jewelers. There is article after article on Kitco, for example, describing what happened to Indian and physical demand in general in the Spring. It crashed.

     

     

    And others bought up the slack! And China has just started

     

    The World's #1 Gold Importer

     

    The Vietnamese government's decision to ban gold imports follows an unprecedented surge in gold ownership. The locals have lunged for gold bullion lately. In fact, they even surpassed India and China as the world's largest source of demand.

    Gold production is already approaching net supply deficit. The largest gold exporters, South Africa and Australia continue to struggle to bring new supply to the market this decade.

     

    Demand destruction is the code-word for declining consumption when commodity prices rise exponentially. So far, this has NOT happened in Vietnam. Fabrication demand has fallen sharply in India as gold prices raced through US$750 an ounce last fall. But despite a surging price since last August, the Vietnamese continue to absorb imports at a record clip - until now.

     

    According to the World Gold Council, Vietnam's first quarter gold imports were 36.8 tons. That's up an astounding 71% from the first quarter in 2007. And gold-hungry consumers purchased 31.5 tons of that total supply or 86% as investments. In other words, they're buying gold to protect their wealth against rising inflation and a weak currency. Sound familiar ?

  5. Gold Comments - 2nd Half

    in Mining and Precious Metals

    Posted

    A very solid interview IMHO. Clearly we don't know how he performed his calculations and what assumptions/rates were used, but on that performance he's clearly a smart, lucid professional. One of the more credible investors / pundits out there in my view.

     

    Very useful comments on juniors, I thought. Maybe you could get him on CWR CC?

     

     

    This is the formula he was using

     

    Similarly, if the amount of gold increases, the value of gold will decrease. Due to its physical properties almost all of the gold ever mined is still around in one form or another, which is one of the reasons why gold is so suitable to be money in the first place. The amount of gold mined on an annual basis is nothing other than inflation of the total amount of gold ever mined. The inflation rate of gold is thus new mine production as a percentage of above ground gold stock, which in turn is equal to the total amount of gold mined since the beginning of time.

     

    Consequently, the change in the gold price, in dollars, over time will be in proportion to the inflation of the dollar and inversely proportional to the inflation of gold. We can calculate the theoretical gold price (Aun) as follows: Aun = Aun-1(M3n/M3n-1)(GPn-1/GPn) [Au = gold price; M3 = money supply; GP = gold production]

     

    Noticed him doing the rounds lately think he is feeling the pinch too used to be around £1000 for annual subscription to his newsletter now around £150 oh and you can pay monthly too!.

     

    https://www.paulvaneeden.com/pebble.asp?relid=496

  6. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    GF you were asking some question on GIM about currencies and the Jim Sinclair ratio etc again from Jesse's this article from the FT thought you might find it interesting

     

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/s...p;max-results=7

     

    The Decline of G7 Bretton Woods II and Monetary Colonialism

     

    At some point the Rest of the World may realize that having any nation's fiat money as the international reserve currency is nothing more a thinly veiled form of colonialism.

     

     

    Policy is a matter for The World, not just a Rich Club

    By Jean Pisani-Ferry

    The Financial Times

    August 12 2008 19:40

     

    As the collapse of the trade talks in Geneva in July made clear, there is no longer any   meaningful  trade negotiation without the main nations from the emerging world. The year 2008 may go down in history as the one in which rich countries discovered that this applies to macroeconomic policies, too.

     

    In January it looked as if the opposite lessons could be drawn from events. For a while, Ben Bernanke at the US Federal Reserve and Jean-Claude Trichet at the European Central Bank seemed to be the only relevant policymakers in the world – and they were, as far as liquidity strains were concerned, if only because the US and Europe account for about two-thirds of the global supply of financial assets.

     

    But as months went by, it became clear that countries affected by the shock represented merely a half of world gross domestic product, two-fifths of global energy demand and not even a third of world cereal consumption. Furthermore, rich countries have significantly less weight at the margin: their contribution to world growth is about half their share of world GDP, so one-quarter of the total, and the same rule of thumb applies even more to the demand for oil and foodstuffs. So in the market for scarce commodities, the effects of the slowdown in the US and Europe were offset by domestic booms in the emerging world.

     

    By the end of spring, policymakers in the Group of Seven leading nations had awoken to an uncomfortable reality that focusing on a regional financial shock had led them to ignore a global commodity shock. Worse, thanks to the fact that most emerging and developing countries in Asia and the Gulf were part of a de facto dollar zone, actions taken by the Fed to address financial stress in fact compounded runaway domestic demand in those countries and fuelled global hunger for commodities. In spite of rising inflation, real interest rates in the main emerging countries are still inappropriately low or even negative.

     

    Stagflation is not here to stay. East Asia is unlikely to remain immune from current near-zero growth in Europe (to where it exports about 5 per cent of its GDP) or, even more, from forthcoming deterioration in the US (to where it exports almost 7 per cent of its GDP). Commodity prices have started to decline. However, the underlying issue will not go away, for two reasons.

     

    First, lingering scarcity of fossil energy and agricultural commodities is likely to remain and to change the macroeconomic scene significantly. For about two decades, since the start of the current wave of globalisation, it seemed that there were no real speed limits to global growth. Dsinflationary forces coming from the increase in the global labour force and the weakening of organised labour were powerful enough to ensure an environment of low prices worldwide. This Goldilocks era has ended and the world economy is likely, over and again, to test the speed limit stemming from constraints on the supply of commodities.

     

    Second, in the same way German unification revealed the fault lines in the European monetary arrangements of the 1980s, the current episode has exposed the fault lines in the so-called “Bretton Woods 2” arrangement, whereby a large part of the emerging world pegs to the US dollar. But for the direction of the shock (a boom then, a slump now), what is happening now is in many way a repetition of what happened then to the European exchange rate mechanism: here, a shock to the anchor country that desynchronises it from its monetary bedfellows.

     

    So the question is: what do we need to manage interdependence better? A straightforward solution would be for the main countries or groupings to target domestic inflation independently in the context of flexible exchange rates. The proviso is that for such a solution to work participants would have to target total, not core, inflation (this may seem obvious but it has apparently escaped some policymakers, who claim that there is nothing they can do about inflation because it is not home-made). This is more or less the arrangement industrialised countries came to a decade or so after the collapse of Bretton Woods. It involves minimal co-ordination and can accommodate differences in preferences. In the European case, it has proved compatible with tighter regional agreements – including a single currency.

     

    The problem is that a large part of the emerging world, starting with China, is not ready for independent floating. There are genuine obstacles to it, such as incomplete financial liberalisation and resistance stemming from the fear of uncontrolled appreciation. However, there is no reason why a preference for managing exchange rates should imply the status quo remains. Ad­justments are needed and the current de facto dollar pegs are often at odds with the countries’ foreign trade. From basket pegs involving currencies other than the dollar, especially the euro, to innovative solutions such as the commodity peg advocated by Jeffrey Frankel of Harvard, there is a large menu of options to choose from for reformers looking to strengthen domestic and world stability.

     

    But with managed exchange rates comes closer policy interdependence. If they are to remain prevalent in one form or another, there will need to be more co-operation in setting reference rates and monitoring aggregate demand. This implies multilateral discussions on exchange rate arrangements as well as on domestic demand policies and domestic subsidies to oil and food consumption. From an institutional standpoint, this also implies going beyond the existing loose arrangements or mere lunch invitations such as the last G8 summit in Hokkaido. The G7/G8 is not the appropriate forum for macro-financial matters any more. A frank policy dialogue between emerging and developed countries requires an appropriate venue.

     

    The one option that is not advisable is to ignore the lessons from this year. For some time now, globalisation has been increasingly difficult to sustain politically, in spite of having brought income gains and low prices to the citizens of the advanced economies. It will already be much harder to convince the same sceptical citizens that they must accept it despite the fact that it brings higher commodity prices and lower incomes. It would simply be impossible to make the case for it if, in addition, it were to be perceived as a source of enduring instability.

     

    Exchange rate arrangements and their implications for global macro­economic management should thus be a priority topic for the international community and especially the International Monetary Fund. The Fund is looking for a renewed purpose; here is one that belongs to its core mission and where it has no substitute. Success, however, will only be possible if the G7 countries admit that the days when they were running the show are over.

     

    The writer is director of Bruegel, the European think-tanki

  8. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    I have never seen this hapen at Kitco before on their front page and I have been visiting that site for around four years!.

     

     

    http://www.kitco.com/

     

    Please Note: Metal price changes are now based on closing prices at 5:15 PM NY time Mon-Fri. As a reference point Click for details.

     

    IMPORTANT NEW NOTICE: Due to market volatility and higher demand in the entire industry, we are anticipating delays in supply of all bullion products.Please note that you can continue to place orders and prices will be guaranteed; however, cancellation fees will still be applicable regardless of the length of the delay. Consequently once inventory is received there may also be delays in processing and shipping by our vaults.

  10. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    What are peoples thoughts on the 300dma? We are at about that level, and that has held well over the past 3-4 years.

     

     

    I believe Marc Faber likes that indicator.

     

     

    Gold remains my favourite asset class, but I wouldn’t rule out a decline in prices to below US$800 before the next upward leg gets under way. As Ron Griess observes, the gold price has tended to bounce off the 300-day moving average – currently at US$741. The US dollar may have reached a selling climax in mid-March and I expect a rally, which may have some legs as dollar shorts will be quick to cover their positions.

     

    By Marc Faber for The Daily Reckoning May 2008

  13. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Looks from the Bullionvault information as though there's a continuing steady rise in their gold.... the rise tailing off a little if anything.

     

    Strange how the amount of cash that the 46,000 users have on hand corresponds so closely to the price of gold. I'd guess that's buying occuring on dips.

     

    Also, the distribution of cash has moved away from pounds towards euros. Seems like Brits have been buying gold or withdrawing cash, while Europeans have either been selling or charging their accounts. I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess it's the buying and charging option.

     

    Any thoughts?

     

    W.

     

     

    Interesting site here from a guy at Itulip Bullion Vault Watch

     

    http://www.bullionvaultwatch.blogspot.com/...kk.blogspot.com

  15. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Yes and there was an excellent response that went some thing like this:

     

    if 100 years ago you had a basket of currencies, a pound,a franc a dollar etc it would have been allot of money back then. But look how much they would be worth now.

     

    With the same money you could have bought a few ounces of gold and look at the value of that now.

     

    An excellent illustration of how all currencies have and will be inflated away.

     

     

     

     

  18. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    The silver Brittannia doesn't seem to be available on coininvest at the minute. Any reasons why?

     

     

    They have never had any in over 14months don't know why.

     

     

    Compounded how did your SIPP transfer go.

     

    Not talked about here but it is a way to buy Gold with a great discount from the Goverment. ;)

     

    What were the charges etc if you don't mind me asking.Was it a painless process?.

  19. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    The Chinese Yuan (how many Yuan $1 buys).

     

    cnygm1.png

     

     

    Fast becoming my favorite blog is Jesse's Cafe! One of the best selling books in China

     

    We can't help but note in passing that one of the best selling books in the emerging economy of the People's Republic of China is Currency Wars by Song Hongbing.

     

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2...of-america.html

     

    http://www.thechinaweekly.co.uk/chinaweekl...eoftheweek.html

  22. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Good, old-fashioned hyper-inflation at work. I wonder whether they can still be bothered to print all these zeros on both sides of the note. In Germany they didn't towards the end. :o

    The central bank has issued a 500m Zimbabwe dollar banknote, worth US$2, to try to ease cash shortages amid the world's highest rate of inflation.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7402943.stm

     

     

    You can keep a track of how many it takes to buy 1oz of gold here :D

     

     

     

    http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?...;submit=Convert

     

  23. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/saxena/main.html

     

    All Puru's editorials at FS.

     

     

     

     

    http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/s.../2008/0407.html 7th April

     

    In the current environment, I have no hesitation in recommending precious metals as a long-term store of value. A few weeks ago in the Weekly Update sent out to subscribers of Money Matters, I advised taking profits in this sector and hope that my readers did. In the weeks ahead, I anticipate the correction to continue (Figure 1) and suggest that investors start buying precious metals in the summer months.
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