Billy

Gotta get crafty and use the word dot instead of . and forwd slash instead of / etc etc The bar stewards are monitoring this thread and I bet those of you defecting will also have your PM facility at HPC spiked ... just like GF. I have one message for smelly/bart/olfart and gang - CONGRATULATIONS!!! You have shot yourselves in the foot by spiking the very thread that earned the owner (Brendan M) THE MOST MONEY on ad click throughs!!!!!! What a bunch of useless idiots you are!!! If I were Brendan I'd fire the lot of you!!! :lol: :lol: :lol:

Welcome CIGA!!! Great handle, great to see you here - now where is stonethecrows??? :lol: :lol:

last one from GATA Midas aka Bill Murphy and that's it... pretty pertinent! Warning, please be advised, that there is wacko nut case stalking planet wall street with outlandish claims and prognostications of sky high bullion prices. This crazed fool is shunned by most major media and common folks as being a bit on the edge, a loose cannon. Well, in the fall of last year, October 2007, extra special note was taken by yours truely when this crazed lunatic said that gold would be several hundred dollars higher, and specifically put the price at $950/oz to $1150/oz within six to nine months. The minimum call was $950 by June 08. Most planet wall street cool-aide drinkers yawned, and just thought this creep was nothing but a blow-hard court jester, dressed up like a Mycenaean King in gold laced garb, playing the fool, for the big laugh, and they did laugh at him. Honestly, I was a little skeptical when gold was struggling in the $700s, and told all my friends in the cafe about the gutzee call made by that lone-star gold bug. Well Well, as it turned out, June 08 950$ was the minimum, and dang, the price range was hit within 3 months of the call, JUST NAILING IT, and March 08 $1150 as a maximum, now seems a sure bet, within 30 days. In going back, as it turns out, this gold-freak, has been right on the money FOR SIX YEARS running with the bullion calls and correct analysis. Guess who is laughing now? Who is this guy? Well he goes by the name Midas, now having my sincere congratulations! Derrick Hi Bill, I have an idea! But first some background... over the years, I recommended about 30 friends to take out the free Café trial, in particular the daily Midas. As far as I know, not one took it any further ie none paid the subscription. They virtually all said they didn’t understand it... and it was too time-consuming for them to look at old Midas' to try to understand it. I think at somewhere obvious, there should be a permanent whole page dedicated to new people at Café - with very easy to understand explanation of manipulation. You could use my proof.doc - refer attached latest. By "somewhere obvious", I mean a link either: -at home page, or -on your Guests page (either before or after they enter contact details), or -or at "Le Menu" Table page, immediately above or below the top picture... but either way it must be large and obvious, something like "New Members click here." I recall you had my proof.doc copied to a table (I think it was Matisse Table)... but it wasn't an obvious location to new people, and it eventually faded away as other articles appeared at that table. Regards, Sid Thanks for the note Sid, but this site is not for everyone, especially lazy people who don’t want to do any homework. Think of all the money those people have foregone over the past 9 years because they didn’t take some time and learn something new. That’s their problem and loss. This is not Einstein stuff … matter of fact it could not be simpler. The market was artificially suppressed … not very difficult to understand. Demand for physical gold has been far greater than supply … thus the price must go way up to ration the dwindling mine and central bank supply … also not very difficult to comprehend. Hi Bill: Perhaps this is why most folks are still "asleep" concerning gold and silver. Lord knows you've got enough to read, but thought this might be pertinent. I've tried to understand why people are the way they are because I know they're not stupid. Something is very wrong. In searching for some answers, I came across this: "The Underground History of American Education" by John Taylor Gatto, found on-line here: http://www.johntaylorgatto.com/underground/index.htm Taken from the prologue, found here: http://www.johntaylorgatto.com/underground/prologue6.htm QUOTE Dumb people are no longer merely ignorant. Now they are indoctrinated, their minds conditioned with substantial doses of commercially prepared disinformation dispensed for tranquilizing purposes. Jacques Ellul, whose book Propaganda is a reflection on the phenomenon, warned us that prosperous children are more susceptible than others to the effects of schooling because they are promised more lifelong comfort and security for yielding wholly: "Critical judgment disappears altogether, for in no way can there ever be collective critical judgment....The individual can no longer judge for himself because he inescapably relates his thoughts to the entire complex of values and prejudices established by propaganda. With regard to political situations, he is given ready-made value judgments invested with the power of the truth by...the word of experts." Ellul puts it this way: "The individual has no chance to exercise his judgment either on principal questions or on their implication; this leads to the atrophy of a faculty not comfortably exercised under [the best of] conditions...Once personal judgment and critical faculties have disappeared or have atrophied, they will not simply reappear when propaganda is suppressed...years of intellectual and spiritual education would be needed to restore such faculties. The propagandee, if deprived of one propaganda, will immediately adopt another, this will spare him the agony of finding himself vis a vis some event without a ready-made opinion." END Ready-made opinions, probably via CNBC, CNN or FOX. Respectfully, Edward Ulysses Cate

silver From Ted Butler’s commentary today: Up Against The Wall There were some surprises in the most recent Commitment of Traders Report (COT) for silver futures on the COMEX. The COT, for positions held as of Feb 26, showed a big drop in the uneconomic spread positions, a notable increase in small trader short positions (most likely as a result of call option exercises that went into the money), and a decline in the total commercial net short position for the first time since the middle of December. (The raptors were buying this past week.) These all represented changes from past patterns, especially noteworthy since prices rose strongly in the reporting week. But there was no surprise for the most important pattern in the silver COT, namely, the concentrated short positions of the largest 4 and 8 traders. Once again, each set new records, as the big shorts sold into the rally. The big 4 are now net short 62,229 contracts, or over 311 million ounces. That’s the equivalent of more than 177 days of world mine production. The eight largest traders are now net short 79,042 contracts, or more than 395 million ounces, or more than 225 days equivalent production. Never has there been a greater concentrated position of any type (long or short) in silver, or in any other commodity. If Nero were alive and responsible for commodity regulation, I’m sure he would be fiddling as the danger in the silver market burns out of control… -END- Adrian: Bill, While having total disdain for the Cartels motives I have never underestimated the enemy; they have always shown themselves to be shrewd and powerful at manipulating markets. That was my opinion up until 3 hours ago...what they pulled today was the dumbest stunt imaginable...in the midst of a commercial signal failure and with cartel groupies covering of late they are trying to quench the fire with gasoline. The pathetic attempt to rescue a terminally ill USD via the Japanese fell on its face yet the desperados still went on a crazy morning PM raid. I am sending this from my phone because I am at my bank wiring funds to take advantage of this generous gift from the Cartel!! Cheers Adrian If you ever wanted to know why GATA is having another conference, today’s Gold Cartel raid ought to be your answer. If you're able to get away from your daily chores, make plans to be there (details can be found at www.GATA.org). The gold/silver shares did not have the luxury of Darth Vader's merry band and remained in the tank. The XAU lost 7.86 to 195.62 and the HUI lost 17.42 to 484.23. If what we are witnessing regarding the manipulation of US financial markets was not so serious, it would be comical. It all seems so goofy, childish and obvious. The brain dead can spot what is going on here. Since there are a lot of people in the world who are not brain dead, these antics have reached their own Tipping Point, in that they are increasingly sending more and more investors into gold and silver ... people who want to own something that makes sense. This dip in gold and silver should be a quickie, as the BIG MONEY moves in to pick up cheap gold. As for silver, it ought to make new highs very soon as the Commercial Signal Failure kicks in further. Early MIDAS tomorrow as I am on my way to San Diego. My sister Diane is being honored on Saturday for her work with foster kids. GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT! MIDAS

You can’t make this stuff up. No later than 5 minutes after I received this email, Charlie Gasparino popped up on CNBC, announcing an Ambac deal was close at hand. The DOW then rallied 180 points… Hey Bill, Where's Charlie Gasparino when you need him? I think you could flip a coin on the Hail Mary today. I'm sure they'll try at some point, but they did it yesterday, and it didn't follow through. I think one of your readers pointed out that the fund managers who jump on that bandwagon and help facilitate the Hail Mary, pull in their horns at some point, and the PPT loses some of its sting. This leg down feels kind of "black holish" to me, so we might just get sucked down into the vortex, and blow through the January lows. Question is, when does the Fed play their last trump card? I have a feeling we'll see an emergency cut in order to defend the January lows. That's going to be their line in the sand. If we get no Hail Mary today, and close on the lows, Asia will be looking at a nasty night, and we could be staring at the lows tomorrow, which means we might get a cut tomorrow morning, or the next day. Of course, there's no guarantee that the cut will even work it's magic this time around. It might be good for a bounce, but the last one's effect has completely worn off...Bottom line, this market needs a good puke to help get back to normal. The best thing the Fed could do is take away the punchbowl, but that will NEVER happen, at least not as long as Helicopter Ben is at the controls! Cheers, P de la V UNREAL, except so often too real. The DOW roared back, closing only down 45 to 12,214. The DOG closed up 2 to 2260. As I watch the CNBC market wrap-up pundits beaming on TV after the close, all I can think of is the old PRAVDA. Who woulda thunk it so many years ago? Oh yeah, NO AMBAC announcement!!! BEYOND FARCE. The US economic news presented in the MIDAS commentary has been horrendous for MANY WEEKS. I mean terrible. IMO the ONLY reason the market hasn’t cratered yet is due to the antics of the PPT and its sycophant followers. Before the PPT trotted out their carnival barker, Charlie Gasparino, yields on US Treasuries were tanking. They quickly shot up after the PPT did their thing again. CNBC’s Rick Santelli noted, however, the derivatives laden credit default swap spreads are not coming down … thus the drop in US Treasury interest rates was not achieving the desired results in other related markets. This suggests to me that the possibility of a US financial market system failure is growing. From a MIDAS a few weeks ago… February 14 – Gold $907.60 up 60 cents – Silver $17.22 down 10 cents The Unthinkable Might Be Close At Hand! …Planet Wall Street continues to tell the investing public "Everything is fine." Why else would the DOW keep rallying like it does time and time again? Meanwhile, not since the 70s have I seen a collection of so much negative news for the US economy and financial markets in a month’s time. Because of the constant market rigging over the past many years, which led to excesses of all kinds, the system is BLOWING UP. We are one derivatives crisis (sort of like a neutron bomb going off, setting off one financial nightmare chain reaction after another) away from catastrophe and the unthinkable. Yep, the Titanic analogy again. One day the world looks one way. The next day it is likely to look totally differently. Is that too alarmist? I don’t think so. Just a real possibility thanks to The Gold Cartel, Working Group on Financial Markets, Counterparty Risk Management Group, and the Exchange Stabilization Fund. They have gone too far in their market management. As a result, they have allowed the patient to unknowingly get so sick from his secret addiction that the market managers usual HEROIN FIX won’t soothe the problem… -END-

ETF insider trading fraud ... Bill, Don't know if you happened to notice but GDX sold off about ten minutes before the assault on bullion at the LME close. This market is a playground for insider trading. Total fraud! Rich C

See if I can drum up some business for GATA here is the start of the daily PM newsletter March 4 – Gold $964 down $15.50 – Silver $19.74 down 32 cents PPT’s Carnival Barker Charlie Gasparino Does It Again "How fortunate for governments that people do not think." … Adolf Hitler Go GATA! Right on cue. With Fed Chairman Bernanke sounding more panicky by the DAY (see below), the PPT was forced to hold off with their stock market prop until late in the day, so Plan B was implemented early to calm down growing fears. With the DOW (a widely watch barometer of US financial market health) under severe pressure, The Gold Cartel went into action to bury the most widely watched barometer of negative US financial market health (gold). These sad sack souls didn’t even take the time to bother taking the dollar up this time. They just bombed gold, which, of course, goes against the intuitive nature of what is transpiring in the real world and other financial markets. And that was BEFORE The Gold Cartel really leaned on gold. The Gold Cartel waited until after the PM Fix, which came in at another new high of $984.75, was over for the day to make their move (a standard ploy). The orchestrated correction is a ZERO surprise as the Europeans have been making noises about intervention for days now. The latest… Europe raises pressure on U.S. to halt dollar slide BRUSSELS, March 4 (Reuters) - Worried euro zone policymakers pressured on Washington on Tuesday to do more to halt the dollar's decline, a day after the U.S. currency hit a record low against Europe's single currency. Guy Quaden, Belgium's representative at the European Central Bank, said in an interview on Belgian radio: "Things are becoming exaggerated". "It's up to the relevant authorities to assume their responsibilities and particularly for U.S. authorities, who repeat that they are in favour of a strong dollar but who should reaffirm their words," he said. The Europeans are worried that the slide is getting out of hand after the dollar sank below $1.50 per euro last week. Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders, attending a second day of meetings with European colleagues on Tuesday, put it less bluntly than Quaden but the basic message was the same, that Europe was counting on active U.S. help to tackle an issue which makes life harder for euro zone exporters in world markets. "We are also happy to see the reaction in the U.S. They are also concerned about that. So it may be a first step to a good collaboration between Europe and the U.S. in this field," he told reporters. French Prime Minister Francois Fillon added his voice to the rising chorus ofcomplaint, echoing similar declarations overnight at a Brussels meeting of the euro zone's finance ministers and ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet. "There is a problem in the relationship between the dollar and the euro," he told French Europe 1 radio, saying exchange rate developments were partly to blame for the rising price of commodities, which from oil to wheat are soaring. -END- Yes, there is a problem … the mess created by the Fed, Gold Cartel, PPT and Wall Street. Everywhere you turn here, some entity needs to be bailed out more than the next. It’s called panic, as we are staring at a systemic failure. The yield on our 2-yr note is collapsing. How can the dollar rally much (without short intervention, doomed to fail) when, despite the rhetoric re the silly Strong Dollar Policy, the US is letting the dollar head for oblivion?… TREASURIES-2-year note yield falls to lowest since 2004 NEW YORK, March 4 (Reuters) - The two-year Treasury note's yield fell to its lowest since April 2004 on Tuesday as a sharp stock market selloff sent investors scurrying for the safety of short-dated U.S. government paper. The two-year note's price, which moves inversely to its yield, traded up about 5/32 for a yield of 1.5589 percent , compared with 1.64 percent late on Monday. -END- Instead of taking action which will strengthen the dollar down the road, the Fed and Treasury do the opposite with their policies. Nothing ever changes, especially their market rigging program. This is what grates the GATA camp so much… *The dollar is lower on the day. *US Treasury yields are tanking due to investor fears. *The pundits claim investors are partly running to gold of late as a safe haven play. Yet, just when it ought to rise the most for safe haven reasons, it is slaughtered by The Gold Cartel, BLATANTLY, and the dopes in the gold world say nothing. They make me sick to my stomach, and don’t deserve the respect of a cockroach.

I had a good old belly laugh today at his mangled 'logic' - he hasn't got a freaking clue.

LOL, I noticed that too, and STC must be the most obnoxious poster ever - they're like a sackful of snakes.

they are afraid you'll bring everyone over here game set and match to GF :lol:

Not only do they not like GF, they do not like Gold at all. A good moderator should very rarely be seen or heard - they certainly should NOT be spreading their VI garbage on all the threads - look at the HPC metals thread 'moderators' - look at the numpties in charge of moderating the metals forum, you could not make it up! Metals Gold, Silver, Platinum etc Forum Led by: Fancypants, Bart of Darkness, muttley edit to add they are afraid of a mass exodus if this site's url is posted at hpc

Without a doubt what we are witnessing at HPC is pure hate. Many of these folks have lost a shedload of paper money, and they are lucky to earn 5% in funny money from high street banks. They fail to realise that this is FAR LESS than the real rate of inflation. What little equity they may have left after bad decision after bad decision is being decimated now if they are not in a true currency i.e. gold. They wander onto a 9,000 page gold thread and realise (wrongly!!!) that they've missed the boat! They see folks making over 50% in metals in a year or 18 months. They are so brainwashed by the establishment (schools, university, the professions, the media etc etc) that they cannot and will not admit that they have been HOODWINKED - yes they have been HAD well and truly by the banksters and the politicians - all they can do is attack those who (and eventually they will see this) have the brains and balls to do the research and ACT. This is why cgnao sticks around, he enjoys giving them all two fingers every now and then as gold and silver continue their relentless march upwards. Going bust on a grand scale, as the likes of bart/muttley/smelly/olfart etc etc are doing, really, it couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of people!!! :lol:

They are Utterly CLUELESS :lol: :lol: :lol:

I read that thread. It is quite amazing to me how uniformally utterly CLUELESS thay all are - apart from Impartial and maybe one or two others. :lol:

Brrrmystr @ 17:13 pm. You are very kind. Nothing was said about the next president. JS’s speech was pretty much a generalization of events transpiring over a period of years, and where we are headed next. A lot of the movers and shakers are not in the US. He talks about the “top of the pyramid.” Someone specifically questioned him as to the name of corporation he has alluded to. He gave his opinion of which corporation it is, and I will share that later, but it is only an educated guess based on his research. As for my notes, I have about 9 pages of scribbles on a small blue, lined pad, LOL. The notes are enough to “take me back” to the meeting so I can reconstruct what was said in greater detail. I have done my share of writing in the past, and had many things published, but only by obscure magazines/publishers. (And my forte’ is fiction.) With this subject matter, however, it can safely be said that truth is indeed stranger than fiction.

Point # 8: Gold Shares, especially Juniors Someone asked Jim if he had $100,000 to spend right now and the choices were physical metal, top tier producers, or junior mining companies, which would he chose. He said he would go with the juniors, providing that the junior is a company with both good property, and good management. He said it is unbelievable the number of depressed investors who write to him daily regarding the poor porformance of the gold stocks relative to the price of gold. The greatest complaints, naturally, are about the juniors. He still states that this is due to “black box trading” of ratio spreads. Traders go long the majors (or trade a derivative of this transaction rather than actually take long positions) and short the juniors. They make money as long as the ratio is intact and there is good momentum. Fortunately for us, the momentum is stalling. The majors are losing appreciation momentum, and the juniors are not going down much these days. Apparently he believes that the black boxes have already, or will be, recognizing this shift, and this ratio-spread trade isn’t going to work anymore. He expects a shift in momentum where the majors will level off or pull back and the juniors will advance in price. Jim said he has noticed, in some stocks, multi-million share bids which are usually on “reaction days” where they can slip in and scoop up blocks of shares at reasonable prices. But will these traders be able to cover the shorts so easily? I don’t think so. Jim noted that with many juniors, they don’t gradually increase in price, they pop. And when one pops, often others pop at the same time or soon after. He thinks the shorts are going to have a tough time unwinding their positions, but I don’t know whether he’s saying that the shorts’ attemps to get out will create violent upward spikes, or whether it means it will take them a month of daily price increases to eventually dig their way out. Some of you understand these matters much better than I do, so feel free to comment and speculate. I am curious to know how this may play out. I know he is amused at the fact that the host of people who have taken possession of their share certificates has just made the shorts’ scramble to cover much more difficult. As we at the tent have been saying, the imbalance between the price of gold and the share prices is completely illogical, and can’t last indefinitely. We should soon be reaching the stage where the beach ball can’t be held under water any longer, and it is going to explode upward. I think it is already happening. That’s the end of my report. It has been very useful in organizing my own recollections and opinions on what he said. Again, I want to thank everyone who said they enjoyed hearing about the meeting. I’m delighted to know you have found my notes helpful.

Point # 7: The World is Greedy and Dumb I can’t recall exactly where in Jim’s speech this quote fit in, but his statement certainly sums up our present financial environment. Jim states that “every soverign wealth fund is a back door out of the dollar into assets.” Now that the dollar has been gutted by greed and stupidity, the smart people are all fleeing to alternative currencies and safer investments. If we as small time investors have figured out that we distrust fiat currency and need to protect our assets, one would suppose that people with vast sums of money would be even more frantic to extricate themselves from a dollar implosion. The people at the top of the pyramid of power may be among the greedy, but they aren’t among the stupid. As Jim says, follow the smart money and see where they are investing and you won’t go wrong. His research in “connecting the dots” in the gold market led him to what he describes as “a corporate entity in Grand Cayman” who holds the derivatives on Barrick and would get the shares of the company like foreclosing on a house. When asked point blank who that corporation is, he said that he believes it is the Carlyle Group. In Jim’s opinion, gold is the main focus, as “money.” Other metals and minerals are in demand, but not in the same sense as gold. When asked about silver, he reiterated that silver may outperform gold early on, but it won’t be supported at its ultimate high level as gold will be. He also said that he expects platinum and palladium to perform very well as investments.

Point # 6: Success and Security are not a Geographic Location After skimming through a few of the great posts that have been submitted today, particularly the one by TQ discussing the importance of maintaining the proper outlook on life, I decided to make the following item Point # 6. One of the questions asked of Jim was something to the effect of “how to find a place of sunshine and safety” as financial turmoils and transitions take place. Jim’s answer was that he has given us the information we need to create that “place of sunshine” for ourselves and our families. He said that it was not a geographic place. Such a place does not exist. We can, however, do our best to make the choices that will provide as much as humanly possible for a safe and prosperous future. He said that the point of his website and this conference was to help as many people as possible through this difficult time with our families. He wants us to look back on it from a perspective of being safe and financially secure. A related question was, “Shouldn’t we be concerned about food?” and be storing food in case of social upheaval. Jim’s answer was that “If you have gold, you’ll have food.” He said he didn’t mean to make light of the issue, but in every period of financial distress, people with real money have always been able to buy food and whatever they needed, and it would be no different this time. Of course, putting aside a store of basic necessities isn’t a bad idea, but he believed it wasn’t mandatory. Naturally, the follow-through question was, “What about the people who don’t have gold, and don’t have food?” This is where we got into the issue that the economy would be stabilized before the situation degenerated into utter chaos, and that social unrest over food, money, or whatever would be put down with an unfortunate Kent-State type action if the situation got far enough out of hand to require such extreme measures. I’ll close this segment by saying that one of the attendees who stepped up to the microphone was a young Vietnamese fellow who told a very moving tale. He said that as he grew up, his mother often told him with a smile that he owed her eight ounces of gold. This was the price she had paid for herself and each member of the family, to buy passage on the boat that brought them to safety and a new life. He said that he had not fully understood until he grew up, and in recent years began learning about gold, and reading Jim’s website. Now he understands the importance of the timeless wealth-holding: gold, and the freedom and security it has provided to others in similar circumstances. Let’s hope that none of us ever needs to make use of gold in the same way that this young man’s mother did, but it is a reminder of the perils of paper “money” and the difference between gold and the fiat currencies that are here today and gone tomorrow.

Point # 5: The Time Frame While I may never understand how this is possible, JS says that the gold price of $1650 and the target year of 2011 has been in his calculations from early in his career. I believe he said something to the effect that it is based on “math and the markets.” We know that he predicted in advance the 1980 top in gold within a few dollars, so I tend to believe him, despite being unable to grasp how he arrives at his figures. During the question and answer period, someone asked what was the probability that his time and price predictions were off, and in which direction would his predictions err. His response was that if he was wrong, the price would be higher, and the time frame sooner. I gathered from his subsequent comments that he believes it is quite likely that the price will be higher, and sooner. He has made conservative predictions, not wanting to mislead anyone. One of the quotes I wrote on my notepad is: “When price preceeds time the price projection is likely not estimated high enough.” If memory serves me correctly, he has stated a few times in the past that we have run to and exceeded the “angels” (magnets or price targets) faster and more easily than anticipated, entering a runaway stage of the gold market. Tying in with this issue of price and time targets, I should note his statement that money and fiscal stimulus can get out of hand, and that these efforts are partly controlled by psycology. While I’m all for a higher gold price sooner, too much of a good thing could work against us. If market psycology breaks down, I believe this will threaten the timeframe and plans which we have been discussing, and the gold certificate ratio might have to be put in place far ahead of schedule (thereby freezing the dollar’s decline and gold price’s ascent at that point). So, perhaps we should applaud the efforts of our leaders who are trying to smother each new economic crisis that breaks out, and lull the investing public into a belief that everything is under control and, “it will all work itself out.” In the meantime, gold marches ever higher while we accumulate mining stocks and metal. Jim mentioned the possibility of a large spike in price. I know some people here rub their hands in glee at the idea, but as Jim reminds, price spikes are typically followed by an equally “violent reaction” (meaning a sharp correction). A slow but steady increase is sustainable, and is better for we who are long the metals and the shares. I am unclear about his comments that followed the mention of a price spike. I am not sure if he felt that after a spike and a correction the price would continue its upward journey, or whether the spike and fall would indicate such market distress that it would demand the immediate institution of the Gold Certificate Ratio. 2011 is not very far away, so if all things play out as Jim says, those of us who have patiently held through the wild price swings and the long, morale-shattering corrections, will be rewarded. We will probably laugh someday over the very things we are crying over today.

# 3, the game is to make money (profits) in paper, then to convert to hard assets before fiat money collapses. The mechanism that will eventually halt the continued devaluation of the dollar will be what Jim calls the Gold Certificate Ratio. If I understand this correctly, once this financial mechanism is instituted, it will be a ratio relationship between US gold holdings verses the amount of US dollar debt held by overseas entities. (Jim was asked how anyone knows just how much gold the US actually holds, and his answer was that it will be whatever we say we still own, as it has not been audited in years, and will never will be, but this will be accepted.) The ratio will not be tied to interest rates as in the past, but to the money supply. While the amount of debt may not be fully transparent, Jim seems to feel that it can be estimated accurately enough, and that a contract will trade on global exchanges that is based on the gold/debt ratio. This financial vehicle will arrest the decline of the dollar, as the price/value of gold will change to reflect changes in debt levels. He believes that the price of gold will remain reasonably close to whatever price it is trading at when this new policy is instituted. The price may range from $50 to $200 an ounce, either way, which is potentially a range of $400/ounce, but at a projected price of $1650.00/ounce when this happens (or higher) this is still a pretty high gold price. The main point being that this mechanism insures that the price of gold doesn’t drop off a cliff as it did in the 1980s. It will remain reasonably stable and quite high. Jim states that it is in the interest of the people who hold vast sums of dollar denominated debt, with no practical means of unloading it all, to eventually stop the dollar’s decline and to resussitate the dollar to improve the value of their dollar holdings. His target for the institution of the gold certificate ratio is around .52 on the USDX index, and he believes that the dollar will eventually trade back to around the 72 to 82 level. As a personal aside, I have read the works of Another and Friend of Another, aka FOA, in the past, and these individuals had many ideas of how the gold markets would evolve, and how price movements of gold and oil were interrelated. Many of these concepts have played out, but some have not. One of the scenarios put forth that did NOT occur was: Entities like Barrick with huge hedge positions that were “under-water” as the price of gold increased (somewhere between $350 and $400/ounce), would “blow-up.” At that point it would be discovered that most of the gold traded today is only “paper gold” contracts, not backed by actual gold, like fractional banking where there is very little cash actually backing the debt/money created into existance. When this became evident, the Comex would seize up and stop trading, and gold would be revalued upward in the many thousands of dollars. The problem I always had with grasping this scenario, is that I found it hard to believe that ”smart money” would allow themselves to be trapped like rats on the wrong side of the rising gold price trend and lose everything. It seemed to me that they would find some way to offset the hedge risk, or push the risk off onto someone else, and manuever themselves into a place where they could get rich off the rising gold price rather than be destroyed by it. In Jim’s scenario, they have done exactly that. The smart money are actually the people on the other side of Barrick’s hedges. They will end up being the owners of the mine and its future production and they will benefit from high gold prices. Something else I find interesting is that Another and FOA spoke with a voice of authority as if they had inside knowledge of the inner workings of the gold and oil markets. To some degree, I believe they did, because so much of what they outlined has come to pass. On a few points, however, FOA warned that what he laid out was not all carved-in-stone fact, and that no one knew exactly what would happen. In looking at Jim’s message, we see the same confidence and voice of authority, as if he has inside knowledge. To some degree, his message is speculation based on huge amounts of research, which he has written up on his website recently in the series of articles “Connect the Dots.” So how much is speculation, and how much is fact? One of the most interesting things Jim said during this segment of his speech was that he has talked to many people in high positions in business and in the economy that agree that what he has outlined for us is going to happen. He went so far as to say that a few individuals have sanctioned his speaking on these subjects, saying “go ahead and talk about it, it’s coming.” I am not fully confident that what Jim says is carved-in-stone fact, and of course each of us will assign to his message a diferent degree of credibility. It does make sense, though, to me. Whether we accept his view of how this will all play out will affect other choices we make, so it is an important issue. I believe he has said previously that he does not believe personal gold holdings would be confiscated. He does not believe the dollar will crumble and society degenerate into a Mad Max world. I share that particular view. I have always felt that if facing economic chaos the US would hyperinflate the dollar and hand out financial aide countrywide rather than allow starvation or social chaos. I don’t spend time worrying about hungry people showing up at my door demanding my garden produce. I don’t believe society will collapse and we will need to live in fortified compounds, although I do believe things could get rather ugly. Just not THAT bad. Along that same theme, Jim believes that firm, decisive police action will be taken if there are any financial/societal uprisings, and yes it might not be pretty. My impression is that Jim doesn’t think the action will be aimed at the “haves” such as those of us who have prepared, but at the “have nots” who would create any uprising and break laws. This topic and concern has been discussed recently here at the tent, and it is a valid concern, as none of us can be certain what we face in the future, and the most we can do is watch how things unfold and assign probabilities to future events accordingly.

Point # 3: Stable High Gold Prices are part of the End Game If anything at all could be considered the crux of Jim’s message, it would be: You are playing on the winning team. Gold wins in the end. While it has felt to us as gold investors that we are swimming against a tide, and that those at the top of the “global food chain” hate gold and are trying to depress the price and destroy it, that is not the case. The scenario that is playing out now, with gold coming back as the form of wealth revered throughout the centuries, has been slowing unfolding over a period of years. Jim prefers not to think of it as a conspiracy, although he admits that most of his friends use that term, but he calls it taking advantage of opportunity. The financial “paper-based” world has structural flaws, as we all know. It is logical that the smart money people, at the top of the global pyramid of power, would find a way to isolate themselves from the destruction of fiat money markets. They know that the U.S. dollar is on life support, and there are large investors and nations who are trapped, holding vast sums of dollars around the world. The end game is a shift from inflated “paper” financial assets to real assets. As we all know, China, India, and the other developing nations around the world will continue to require natural resources - minerals and metals, for a very long time. Paper assets are no longer the road to wealth, hard assets are. One very interesting and somewhat surprising point that Jim made, was that gold was not the entire focus in this plan. All minerals and metals are being targeted by the people at the top of the financial pyramid. Obviously gold plays a special role in that it is “money” as well as serving its other roles. So while it may seem that we have been fighting gold opposition, the opposition does not hate gold, and are in fact positioning themselves to own as much of it as possible, not only the above ground supplies, but more importantly its future production as well as the future production of other minerals and metals. Naturally, at that point, they wouldn’t want the price of gold to plummet back to $250 or $500 an ounce, would they? Which leads to point # 4 . . .

BTW this is at goldtent.com Point # 2: Consolidation of the Mining Industry This is one of Jim’s main points that we at the tent have found unclear. He worded this matter yesterday in such a way that it is obvious he does not mean that Barrick will gobble up every single mining company and own them all. His wording was “all companies of interest who are willing to be taken over.” This, of course, makes most sense. Barrick will not want every mining company, and the shareholders of many mining companies won’t want to be absorbed into Barrick. Nothing was said as to whether he recommended owning Barrick stock. He reitterated, however, that at the end of the game it would play out like the Ashanti case. I am not sure I completely understand the following concept, or how this works, so feel free to jump in and clarify: shareholders would receive delivery in kind, or it would be settled more likely in cash and shares. While I am ignorant about this mechanism, he made it clear in person as he did on his website that the shareholders would have made a lot of money by the time the owners of the Barrick hedges called “game over.” If I understand the matter correctly, these ”longs” on the other side of Barrick’s hedge obligations, would then own the company and would henceforth own and control all future production. Which brings us to Point # 3 . . .

I've found some analysis of Jim Sinclair's recent speech - will post for posterity in case the original site disappears. Point # 1: “This is It.” We have sometimes questioned exactly what Jim means by this. He said that he has been aware for years, and has discussed with us, inherent flaws in the financial markets, and the impending turmoil that was inevitable. Credit and debt are the foundations of our economy. Due to complex fnancial instruments, (derivatives, aka SIVs,) expanding beyond all logic and control (they are unregulated) we have entered unchartered financial waters in recent years. These are unprecedented conditions. The systemic dislocations have never been this great. Neither he nor any of the people he has been educated by, past or present, have ever witnessed anything of this kind. Now the credit markets have broken down with no viable solution for fully repairing the damage, and the damage is spreading from one financial asset class to another. This is the peril that he foresaw happening, and he knew that gold would benefit and protect its owners when this scenario unfolded. Once the credit implosion began he alerted us that “This is it:” the peril he had expected was now a reality. Here is a simplified example of the way derivatives play out: As Jim has said before, these contracts are structured so that the performance of the contract is dependent on the solvency of the person who is on the losing side of the transaction. I.E. this is already a flawed “investment.” He says that if you were to buy a soybean contract and the investment went against you, you would get a margin call. In derivative contracts, however, there is no margin call. The investment simply goes against you, and suddenly trucks start arriving, dumping loads of soybeans on your yard. And you are obligated to pay for them, even though you don’t have the money. While this may be a bit of a simplistic example, Jim said it gave the general idea of how these transactions work and what a hopless mess is created. Jim says that derivatives at this point are basically all “busted” and many have been for a long time, plus they have no real market. The grantor and grantee are the only parties who can “take off ” or liquidate the contract, but in most cases the originators have resold the derivative to other people, who may have in turn done the same. He says the inventors of the OTC derivative in 1992 were eventually jailed, as the transactions were deemed to be illegal and fraudulent, as too little money was creating too large a sum for the “investment.” I am not sure how we moved to the place in the financial world where these instruments were allowed, and actually sanctioned, based on the information I have provided above. Either Jim didn’t explain that, or I didn’t catch that part. In any case, SIVs are little better than a ponzi scheme, and now the genie can’t be put back in the bottle. A lot of “investors” have the proverbial yard full of soybeans and the trucks are tooting a merry salute as they drive away!

Yes he spoke earler to the comm bankers but CNBC have been saying he is due on later - still waiting.

Not yet. SOP to hammer the metals when he opens his gob.