Oologhai + co. My tactics... (fwiw)
It's hard to judge, but if there's one thing I've noticed in the year or so that I've been buying gold is that reasoning doesn't work for me over the short term. So many ups and downs are just noise and completely unpredictable. I've got nervous and taken profits before only to see the price go through the roof, as well as buying strength only to see a fall. I can qualify it with charts, but most of it is gut feelings if I'm honest with myself. Until last week though, I had always been well in profit a week or two later.
I have been reading sound arguments on this thread and in many other places over the last 18 months for a continued rise in the price of gold and I have some faith that that will happen longer term. Given that and the fact I was happy buying in at $990, I should be jubilant to be buying at $920 - as long as I remain confident that the general direction of travel is still up. And that's exactly it. That's what we're getting nervous about isn't it? Not that we'll be down for a month or two, but that we've been fundamentally wrong about the general direction of travel - that maybe, just for a minute there, it was getting a bit euphoric.
At these points I have to reaffirm and rationalise what I believe: that it makes sense to hold at the moment and tentatively buy in to what may prove a rare opportunity. After all, it could bounce back just as quickly. On the other hand, I'm keeping plenty of cash on hand in case of further falls. One thing I'm certain of is that holding lots of GBP fiat makes me nervous.
The big psychological factor is that anything much below $860 would wipe out my profits. Then the reality of chasing losses might well start to affect my behaviour. I've resolved to hang tough and ride it out. It's really interesting to see how fear and greed weave their magic over me. Whatever else happens, it's never dull and I feel like I'm learning lessons about myself.
- Wheely.
