dopamine

Where is gf posting now? I tried to ask on the fringe thread but it was modded away (I think). A PM would be fine if anyone doesn't want to post.

I'm not trying to stir here btw. I just valued good fingers pov and would like to read his stuff

Nice action in silver today, offset, for gbp holders, by dollar weakness. I've taken to checking USD GBP more than I check PM prices.

Not long before there is an inflationary consensus IMHO, at which point we'll leave $13 behind for good.

As a safe haven currency, gold will again pick up here and could even spike again. The big move in pog will probably come in a year or so when the dollar finally devalues. Until then expect continued strength in the US dollar. And massive volatility. I plan to buy and swap only currencies... buying weakness and selling strength

Agree with most of what you say RH. I am perceiving my own behaviour re: gold far more as 'currency trading' rather than 'investing' if that makes any sense. I don't know whether this is a reflection of 'maturity' in my views about the underlying asset or a reflection of gold's 'behaviour' in the late $800s - $900s (apart from the odd spike, of course).

I'm not sure whether I think we'll see any more 'black swans' like Lehmans etc, so probably more likely that the slow slog through this mess will drive things from now on (although obviously not anticipating a black swan is the precondition for one happening, so I'm talking nonsense there)

For me the current questions are as follows:

1. For how long will gold trade in this range $890-$950 that it seems to have settled quite comfortably into this month? Is this seasonal or a response to the current phase of the crisis?

2. Will the next move, short term, be up or down?

3. Are there any foreseeable events that will make it move convincingly above or below this range in the next few months?

I don't have a 'feeling in my bones' about gold at the moment, apart from thinking that it seems less like a speculative investment and more like a currency atm (which is good).

I think I am going to buy from CID. I just realized that I save £1 per coin when I buy from Europe (7% VAT), so I might just do that. I think I will go for 2009 Eagles & Maples, and then maybe a few Libertads and Koalas just because they are pretty. I don't like Philharmonikers, they look like medals to me.

How many coins in a roll? I've only bought 1 kilo bars up til now but I wouldn't mind some coins as well. The postage at CID makes small coin purchases expensive, it seems to me.

during the last bout of gold selling off in early feb (from 875 to 800) silver was knocked down as well but came back stronger after each downward move. my take on it - the ratio is reverting to mean

I hope so.

Also note today that base metals are up - so silver's resilience may be an artefact of industrial demand / consensus that a bottom in commodities has been reached, rather than a result of safe haven buying. Silver in that dual PM/industrial commodity role again.

Silver up, gold down just for the minute. Can't remember seeing this before - my kcast always shows either two little red arrows or two little green arrows. Any thoughts?

Just briefly broke below $900.

Didn't expect it to break support tbh. Silver interestingly not following today - currently up - perhaps more evidence of manipulation?

Seasonals - where does the biggest demand for gold come from?

 

Gold is usually lower in price by the time August/September arrives so why buy in March at a peak?

Depends why you're buying. If you're a long term investor then thinking about seasonality is reasonable. However, in these crazy times, many are buying exactly because the normal rules no longer seem to apply, and given that there could be a real SHTF scenario any minute, worrying about entry points seems a little superfluous. Imminence of risk influences the demand for insurance. It's a bit like the housing indices still using seasonal adjustments to the figures, up and down - totally irrelevant in the current circumstances IMO, given volume has collapsed.

Maybe I should open a GM in China if James Turk already hasn't.

Potential money spinner I agree - however potentially risky as the chinese government can be a bit 'overweaning', due to their awkward communist ways.

Telegraph in full 'media interest' mode atm. Chinese public beginning to buy.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...hard-times.html

"Banks cede control to governments" - reuters headline

Ah, so, since governments are so trustworthy, gold sells off.

I get it now.

Plunging right now - any reason? About to check reuters.

Interesting that we see such volatility mere weeks after ML and another few investment banks (?Goldman Sachs) ramped gold to private investors, saying it would definitely hit $1000 again and uprating their prediction of average 2009 price - a story that was widely covered in the mainstream financials.

They make money on the way up and down and engineering short term moves in the only asset many private investors perceive as safe at the moment is a spiffing wheeze to add a few Ks onto the balance sheet. Obviously one day it will catch them out, but then they're f***** anyway.

Have there been any recent silver sammy pronouncements?

Wish I'd put the mega trade I planned at $915/oz. Dithered for a day then it ran away from me.

Would've had an extra £10K for my GM account today.

My cojones are too small, but I'm being a bit glass half empty as my core positions are well up.

Ratio looks to be consistently coming down. Silver looks like the one to buy at the moment... considering of course how much gold compared to silver you already hold.

 

http://howestreet.com/audiovideo/index.php...ediaplayer/1111

I'm 50:50 at the moment. Thinking of going to 70:30 in favour of ag. However I do worry that silver has more downside potential since it still behaves like an industrial commodity to a degree (which is why it isn't over $20/oz with gold at around $1K). This fear may of course be misplaced - but gold still seems 'more like money' to me and less of a speculative play (I have a weakness for speculative plays, which is why I'm aware that I need to stop myself making sudden decisions on my PM holdings).

No change yet in the Ag:Au ratio with this recent surge, by my calculations.

The question is will silver correct to the same degree when (if) this current high in gold corrects or will we see a reduction in the ratio.

I'm sticking to ag in goldmoney from now on and may swap some of my gold for silver over the weekend.

Is there a way of trading silver that avoids the VAT and the dealer fees. They are quite expensive.

Spreadbetting and ETFs.

Ag now over £10/oz on Goldmoney.

I thought that too.

 

I just dumped some BV and bought some physical bars.

 

I've got an itch telling me we are going through the 1000USD before very long.

 

I've got another itch telling me the opposite.

 

Oh, which itch do I stratch !

+1 here

I ummed and ahhed over opening a large position at $915. Wish I had now. Also wanted to top up my GM acct but am a bit wary now because I always try to buy on dips.

Can't help thinking that we'll see $1000 again before feb is out. Maybe Au<$950 is history - god knows.

Buying as much as possible at under £10/oz is the challenge now IMO.

Priceless.

I think 860 is a firm possibility in the next week. Look at the upchannel support at 860ish which i am thinking will be tested.

EDIT: I am not trading it.

Thanks. I'm still in 2 minds and haven't placed the trade. This obama action is driving things today.

Is anyone else considering a large trade at these levels, with a view to riding it up to $1000? A stop at $875 in my thinking is more than generous as it seems as if gold is champing at the bit again. I did the same last year, but made the mistake of not taking profits, and the nasty one day plunge we had happened on the day when I couldn't check markets due to work. Can anyone seriously see a further correction down to $850 or below happening before gold takes out $1000 again?

Be grateful for traders' views on this.