allyjcambo

!

IRS, just out of interest don't suppose you've ever said to someone, 'I've never thought about that before, not sure I agree, but it's an interesting point and I can totally see where you're coming from"

I mean seriously, i kind of agree with some of what you say in principle, but how do you interact with people on a day-to-day basis? Is it all 'ad hominems' and 'stawmen'

If I heard correctly the new cabinet are all taking a 5% pay cut as a demonstration of what is to come and that they too are "doing their bit for the deficit". Folks buying houses at current prices are taking a huge risk. All the pressure to my mind is weighing down on house prices. I understand all the reasons folks on here have given for buying now as I have a wife and child too. But really renting has been fantastic:

 

ZERO debt

 

Roof just fell in - no massive repair bill for me - catch mr landlord

 

Waking up each morning to see the STR fund (in gold) has made me more when I was asleep than I make working during the day.

 

Seeing G0ldfingers charts of UK houses priced in gold

 

Knowing I am not a wage slave to the banksters by giving them interest on a mortgage

 

I would only consider buying now if I were totally minted and could buy in cash and still have bullion left over. If you dont fall in to that category waiting another year could be the best move you ever make.

Amen to that post. I agree 100%.

The main distinction in trading/ holding for me is not between physical and an ETF, but between gold and silver.

 

Gold - however it is held....physical, GM, BV, Perth Mint, ETF [diversity is good here... I use the first four]- is to be...held. Silver can then be traded if you so wish.

RH, I go over and over this in my head. At any time gold can be confiscated/taxed into oblivion by a government. Even gold coins in one's possession. In essence, it's a safe haven as long as the rule of law holds true. But there's the point. If currencies break down then so does the rule of law. In which case, are you not better off holding cigarettes and guns and/or living on a distant farm? Maybe this is a long run consideration but events in Greece show me that holding some gold is irrelevant if there's blood on the street.

I agree with Methinkshe 100%.

Me too.

I have never understood the hostility thrown his way.

He is never anything other than courteous and generous with his time when I have asked for his opinion.

Some of his posts recently on pragmatism vs. theory have been 1st class.

It would be good to see Catflap back, but otherwise I think the site has returned to its good old self of late.

Fair enough, but bad manners get my goat.

Me too.

I don't see these posts from GOM etc. as 'crack' - they're just unpleasant and add nothing.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...-the-price.html

Some 2010 prediction for the gold price. There are some differences at the margin, but the unanimous opinion is stay long.

The following comment from the above link sums things up best:

"The only way that gold can underperform is if the US and other developed economies recover in a conventional way by cutting spending and raising taxes while at the same time embarking on a period of stable economic growth.

This would prompt a strong and sustained rally in the dollar as confidence in the US economy rose together with bond yields and interest rates.

Given the significant challenges ahead, a muted and fragile recovery appears more likely. With the likelihood that the world will take several more years to heal the wounds inflicted by the credit crunch an alternative asset like gold will remain attractive in such an uncertain environment.

The price of gold may have risen a long way recently but in real terms is still well below today’s real price high of $2300 achieved in 1980. It is over-bought and is likely to see a correction when the dollar has a technical rally. Beyond that, gold remains an attractive each way bet."

I agree & some of us have commented on this already

 

Let's be honest here, it's just a trading site with a VI in the current government O'Bama 'go green' policy.

GOM your entitled to your opinion of course, but I don't see GEI like that at all. There remains a good diversity of opinion on this forum both in terms of outlook and investment strategies.

Can you explain why? He says buy gold as an insurance, don't trade it, buy more on dips. He says that gold is not at all at a long term top. What is misleading about this?

When you put it like that, I have no problem and indeed agree by and large.

However it is the emphatic way in which he delivers his message that concerns me. He has no monopoly on the future and yet makes definitive calls about events coming to pass on or before certain dates. Perhaps 'shill' was too strong. Suffice to say for Sinclair and Dines I think there needs to be the following health warning: take with a large pinch of salt.

Can I make a derogatory image of you Dr B? and use it to ridicule you some more about gold being done at 930USD and call it non-combative educated debate?

Why not just ignore it, my precious little friend.

I can't speak for Bubb, but to me his point is clear. Gold is not a one way bet and goes up and down like everything else.

The bull market in gold is still very much on, but Jim Sinclair in my opinion is a shill. A bit like Jim Dines. You need to be careful with these guys. To me, that's the point of Bubb's posts: be vigilant.

It's always fun to make an arse of myself in public (), so... Sure! Why not?

 

Gold will go more or less sideways for about a month (although, it may be pretty choppy, so it won't feel like sideways necessarily), then there'll be another jump early in the new year, then a slower climb up to a local top around the end of Q1 -- at which point, I would expect to see £850/oz (I was going to say £900 knowing that what seems like 'wild prices' now can seem almost normal when they arrive, e.g. how wild did $1200-before-year-end seem a couple of weeks ago?). In dollars, it'll be more like $1400 or so by then[1].

 

*places d*ck on block*

 

[1] And if you believe all that, you can knit fog... I sounded pretty confident, though, didn't I, eh, eh?

Great post.

Now just bought a kilo of silver! Do I win a prize?

Just popped onto the site and can't see where I can buy silver. Any ideas Wanderer?

Possibility of $28 on a spike by April.

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=140271

Thanks.

I think silver is being quite bullish at the moment and is about to explode upwards any day soon. The cartel have got to be running out of physical sooner or later and when they do watch the price shoot up 2 or 3 dollars in a day.

Pixel8r, do you have an intermediate (i.e. next few months) target for silver? Thanks

I would be very worried about keeping 50% of my wealth in GBP, but I understand the need to keep some fiat cash. Maybe you should look at some other currencies to diversify into. I get the feeling the pound is going to take a big hit after the election next year.

Agreed, I need to get more moved out of GBP.

Bob Hoye amongst others have a lot to answer for!

Indeed he does!

I still think he has a lot to offer, but his propensity to rewrite history (in terms of his predictions) concerns me.

He was spectacularly right last year but of cource past performance is not a guide to future returns etc....

This bull is going to be very difficult to ride, few will manage to hang on for the whole of it.

I agree with that Pixel8r: to me, it is the key point.

I allowed myself to be thrown off the gold bull earlier in the year (not completely but about 30% of my holding). Of course, I regret that now as we revisit the GBP highs. Part of me thinks I'd have been better off not listening to Howe St, Financial Sense, reading GEI, Moneyweek, the Economist etc... because it leads me to constantly feel pressure to fine tune my holdings. To ride this gold bull I think one of the following two approaches will probably suit most: (a) either constantly keep on top of the gold market and all its intricacies (the way you do Pixel8r) or ( buy and hold and try not to think about it too much .

The latter probably suits me better but then again I enjoy reading all the interesting stuff on gold which people post here.

The other strange thing is that despite being fairly well versed in and agreeing with most of the arguments for holding gold and dumping GBP I still hold at least 50% of my wealth in this currency. I guess the fiat culture is ingrained in me, even though I can see that, in long run, its future looks bleak.

No surprises for guessing who's behind this article.....DT's Ambrose Evans Pritchard.

Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for 'global collapse'

Société Générale has advised clients to be ready for a possible "global economic collapse" over the next two years, mapping a strategy of defensive investments to avoid wealth destruction.

In a report entitled "Worst-case debt scenario", the bank's asset team said state rescue packages over the last year have merely transferred private liabilities onto sagging sovereign shoulders, creating a fresh set of problems.

Overall debt is still far too high in almost all rich economies as a share of GDP (350pc in the US), whether public or private. It must be reduced by the hard slog of "deleveraging", for years.

'Debt levels risk another crisis' "As yet, nobody can say with any certainty whether we have in fact escaped the prospect of a global economic collapse," said the 68-page report, headed by asset chief Daniel Fermon. It is an exploration of the dangers, not a forecast.

Under the French bank's "Bear Case" scenario, the dollar would slide further and global equities would retest the March lows. Property prices would tumble again. Oil would fall back to $50 in 2010. [Odd comment, weaker USD and oil at $50??]

Governments have already shot their fiscal bolts. Even without fresh spending, public debt would explode within two years to 105pc of GDP in the UK, 125pc in the US and the eurozone, and 270pc in Japan. Worldwide state debt would reach $45 trillion, up two-and-a-half times in a decade.

(UK figures look low because debt started from a low base. Mr Ferman said the UK would converge with Europe at 130pc of GDP by 2015 under the bear case).

The underlying debt burden is greater than it was after the Second World War, when nominal levels looked similar. Ageing populations will make it harder to erode debt through growth. "High public debt looks entirely unsustainable in the long run. We have almost reached a point of no return for government debt," it said.

Inflating debt away might be seen by some governments as a lesser of evils.

If so, gold would go "up, and up, and up" as the only safe haven from fiat paper money. Private debt is also crippling. Even if the US savings rate stabilises at 7pc, and all of it is used to pay down debt, it will still take nine years for households to reduce debt/income ratios to the safe levels of the 1980s.

The bank said the current crisis displays "compelling similarities" with Japan during its Lost Decade (or two), with a big difference: Japan was able to stay afloat by exporting into a robust global economy and by letting the yen fall. It is not possible for half the world to pursue this strategy at the same time.

SocGen advises bears to sell the dollar and to "short" cyclical equities such as technology, auto, and travel to avoid being caught in the "inherent deflationary spiral". Emerging markets would not be spared. Paradoxically, they are more leveraged to the US growth than Wall Street itself. Farm commodities would hold up well, led by sugar.

Mr Fermon said junk bonds would lose 31pc of their value in 2010 alone. However, sovereign bonds would "generate turbo-charged returns" mimicking the secular slide in yields seen in Japan as the slump ground on. At one point Japan's 10-year yield dropped to 0.40pc. The Fed would hold down yields by purchasing more bonds. The European Central Bank would do less, for political reasons.

SocGen's case for buying sovereign bonds is controversial. A number of funds doubt whether the Japan scenario will be repeated, not least because Tokyo itself may be on the cusp of a debt compound crisis.

Mr Fermon said his report had electrified clients on both sides of the Atlantic. "Everybody wants to know what the impact will be. A lot of hedge funds and bankers are worried," he said.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...l-collapse.html

A leading economist says....don't buy gold. Does anyone see the irony there? Vested interest in keeping the fiat money system going? Or will he buy on a pullback?

 

http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/news/...p;ViewFull=True

 

Crap article - posted for balance though...don't want anyone to say I only post bullish articles....

I genuinely welcome these kinds of comments (BTW, there's more than one economist being quoted and all are mainstream). So long as most 'experts' think it's a duff investment we should see a lid kept on retail speculation. This allows the minority to add to their position without worrying that they're caught up in some frenzy. I have no idea of how things will play out but I would not be surprised if gold sold off (maybe even heavily) in the next 6-12 months. Equally I would expect it to bounce back relatively quickly and still believe it will go significantly higher over the next 5 years or so. The idea, to me at least, that central banks/governments are nursing the economy back to health and will remove the stimulus when we're back on our feet is laughable. Here's a link to the BoE minutes - they have no idea what they're doing, no one does. As long as this trend stays in place, I think gold will continue its ascent but equally I do not rule out some sharp pullbacks along the way.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/edmun...t-price-bubble/

$1,150/t oz and £685.00/t oz I think we'll breach £690.00/t oz today.

I think I'm right in saying that when gold was at its high earlier this year in GBPs, the pound was trading at about 1.40 against the USD. Interesting that we appear to be about to revisit those highs but this time with a stronger pound. Not sure about anyone else, but I take that as a sign that there is plenty more in this gold bull particularly when we're pricing it in GBPs.

Yep the fear of a "big pullback just around the corner" has gotten me exactly nowhere. Sub £600 was a gift from god for UK investors looking to protect their wealth. Lesson learned listen to what your own analysis of the situation tells you. Best of luck everyone.

 

Love the rocket pic GF. Ah brought a smile to my face even though i have the dreaded swine flu!

Sorry to read that - hope you get well soon.

I must admit I am still expecting a pull back (the deflationary reverse with USD strengthening) but at the same time I'm not sure what this means for gold in GBPs. In Oct/Nov last year even when gold fell hard in USD it didn't fall anything like as much in GBP and then soon took off to new highs a few months later.

Do you expect to see sub £600 gold in the next few years?

Baby, now we're talking!

 

 

See you up there!

 

God bless you Goldfinger!

The other day I was telling my mates (all of whom know little about gold) about these rocket posters and the 'see you up there' tag line.

They thought it was hilarious.

Considering the review was done at the Value investing congress in October, I assume it has to be one of these:

 

* Julian Robertson, Tiger Management

* Joel Greenblatt, Gotham Capital

* Bill Ackman, Pershing Square, L.P.

* David Einhorn, Greenlight Capital

* Alexander Roepers, Atlantic Investment Management

* Eric Sprott, Sprott Asset Management

* Sean Dobson, Amherst Securities

* Lloyd Khaner, Khaner Capital

* David Nierenberg, The D3 Family Funds

* Paul Isaac, Cadogan Management

* Candace King Weir & Amelia F. Weir, Paradigm Capital Management

* Jason A. Stock & William C. Waller, M3 Funds

* Zeke Ashton, Centaur Capital Partners

* Kian Ghazi, Hawkshaw Capital Management

* Whitney Tilson & Glenn Tongue, T2 Partners

 

My bet is David Einhorn of Greenlight. They have had a strong Gold ETF position, but have transferred that to physical gold due to efficiency. They also have largish (4%) position on Gold miners ETF.

 

Einhorn's position on gold in his VIC 09 speech.

 

In short, he believes gold is a good hedge against bad monetary/fiscal policies and will probably do well in future, esp. if there is a sovereign default. Better than holding cash - both at zero interest currently. If sound policies are reinstated, he will exit gold. He also has a twist on Robertson's CMS bond trick - buying higher yield options on JAP/US bonds. That may prove to be a very clever me and me thinks it should be copied

Thanks Halcyon - that's some detailed knowledge from someone who says he's not that into gold!

Appreciate it though.

The more I think about it, the more gold shares seem to be a good bet. In terms of the market in general, timing is of course vital but whether it's deflation or inflation I think gold stocks should perform well. I'm dripping money into a gold fund at present, but if we get Bob Hoye's heavy liquidation, I hope I'll be brave enough to load up on gold stocks.

Julian Robertson suggests gold miners, who can thrive even on falling gold price. . BTW, he thinks gold bugs are nuts and that gold will not go through the roof.

 

The is also an interesting longer term cycle paper on gold ore prices predicting a potential leg of 35% down (from c. early 9 price levels). There's also a recent paper about the performance of long term TA that argues little historical correlation on return over the long term.

 

There's a bias I urge everybody to look up and internalize what it means to their own thinking.

He's reiterating Bob Hoye's thesis (gold goes down but not as much as everything else, and so gold miners become highly profitable).

Why doesn't he disclose the name of the gold expert he talks about? That really annoyed me and made me want to give him a smack!

You can buy gold bars and coins in Harrods now!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...first-time.html

As I have said before and will say again: There is only one gold, and that is stuff you can stash under the pillow, all else is bits of paper or pixels.

 

It looks like Green light is also seeing the "light".

 

We made a couple of modest changes to our macro hedges. First, after extensive investigation we switched our entire GLD exchange traded fund position into physical gold.

 

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1251815214.php

 

My apologies if this has been posted here before as I have been away for a while.

I'm glad your back. Have always enjoyed and respected your posts.