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allyjcambo

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Everything posted by allyjcambo

  1. allyjcambo

    GOLD

    IRS, just out of interest don't suppose you've ever said to someone, 'I've never thought about that before, not sure I agree, but it's an interesting point and I can totally see where you're coming from" I mean seriously, i kind of agree with some of what you say in principle, but how do you interact with people on a day-to-day basis? Is it all 'ad hominems' and 'stawmen'
  2. allyjcambo

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Amen to that post. I agree 100%.
  3. allyjcambo

    GOLD

    RH, I go over and over this in my head. At any time gold can be confiscated/taxed into oblivion by a government. Even gold coins in one's possession. In essence, it's a safe haven as long as the rule of law holds true. But there's the point. If currencies break down then so does the rule of law. In which case, are you not better off holding cigarettes and guns and/or living on a distant farm? Maybe this is a long run consideration but events in Greece show me that holding some gold is irrelevant if there's blood on the street.
  4. allyjcambo

    GOLD

    Me too. I have never understood the hostility thrown his way. He is never anything other than courteous and generous with his time when I have asked for his opinion. Some of his posts recently on pragmatism vs. theory have been 1st class. It would be good to see Catflap back, but otherwise I think the site has returned to its good old self of late.
  5. allyjcambo

    GOLD

    Me too. I don't see these posts from GOM etc. as 'crack' - they're just unpleasant and add nothing.
  6. The same reason he left 24knews: deletion of thread(s).
  7. Yes they are. Not surprisingly it revolved around Swampy. So far as I could tell, he was misrepresenting Pixel and (whether delibrately or not) making him out to be inept and untruthful. Whatever. To be fair, I think Pixel is trying hard to create the kind of site he wants and why not. Swampy is clearly a bright guy but his ego is massive and wherever he seems to post the site inevitably ends up being about him. He shoud set his own place up rather than slating the sites of others. GOM I know you disagree with this, but I feel strongly that the site owner has every right to run his forum as he wants it. Clearly if he becomes trigger happy he will lose posters but equally inertia is no answer. It's a shame in one sense that a new site has had to come about, but I think it will work well. Both owners have a clear idea as to the kind of forum they want and so I expect there to be a lot less mud slinging going forward.
  8. allyjcambo

    GOLD

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...-the-price.html Some 2010 prediction for the gold price. There are some differences at the margin, but the unanimous opinion is stay long. The following comment from the above link sums things up best: "The only way that gold can underperform is if the US and other developed economies recover in a conventional way by cutting spending and raising taxes while at the same time embarking on a period of stable economic growth. This would prompt a strong and sustained rally in the dollar as confidence in the US economy rose together with bond yields and interest rates. Given the significant challenges ahead, a muted and fragile recovery appears more likely. With the likelihood that the world will take several more years to heal the wounds inflicted by the credit crunch an alternative asset like gold will remain attractive in such an uncertain environment. The price of gold may have risen a long way recently but in real terms is still well below today’s real price high of $2300 achieved in 1980. It is over-bought and is likely to see a correction when the dollar has a technical rally. Beyond that, gold remains an attractive each way bet."
  9. allyjcambo

    GOLD

    GOM your entitled to your opinion of course, but I don't see GEI like that at all. There remains a good diversity of opinion on this forum both in terms of outlook and investment strategies.
  10. allyjcambo

    GOLD

    When you put it like that, I have no problem and indeed agree by and large. However it is the emphatic way in which he delivers his message that concerns me. He has no monopoly on the future and yet makes definitive calls about events coming to pass on or before certain dates. Perhaps 'shill' was too strong. Suffice to say for Sinclair and Dines I think there needs to be the following health warning: take with a large pinch of salt.
  11. allyjcambo

    GOLD

    Why not just ignore it, my precious little friend. I can't speak for Bubb, but to me his point is clear. Gold is not a one way bet and goes up and down like everything else. The bull market in gold is still very much on, but Jim Sinclair in my opinion is a shill. A bit like Jim Dines. You need to be careful with these guys. To me, that's the point of Bubb's posts: be vigilant.
  12. Agreed. If possible, Msparks can you dumb down your posts for thickies like me. A lot of your stuff tends to go completely over my head!
  13. allyjcambo

    GOLD

    Great post.
  14. Probably not the most popular comment (!), but this run in gold keeps reminding me of oil's ascent to $147 last year. And we all know what happened next I don't think it will come to that, what with Chinese demand and so forth, but I would not be surprised to see a nasty correction within the not too distant future.
  15. allyjcambo

    SILVER

    Just popped onto the site and can't see where I can buy silver. Any ideas Wanderer?
  16. allyjcambo

    SILVER

    Thanks.
  17. allyjcambo

    SILVER

    Pixel8r, do you have an intermediate (i.e. next few months) target for silver? Thanks
  18. I remember that interview well, Bubb. It was one of the first CWRs I'd ever heard and I was blown away by his bullishness. Immediately after I bought some uranium stocks and did very well for 6 months or so. Because you were saying something different and because I was unfamiliar with you I chose to ignore your calls. How wrong I was. I don't know much about Sinclair but from what I do he does seem very like Dines. These guys are seriously dangerous (esp to an inexperienced investor). It's not so much what they say but the way they say it. They speak with complete certainty and conviction. Anybody who disagrees with them, simply 'doesn't get it'. To be fair, I think those who follow JS on here do a huge amount of independent reading and thinking for themselves. I also do not think gold will get 'smashed' the way uranium has been.
  19. allyjcambo

    Jim Sinclair thread (News & Views)

    Agreed. So long as you have governments who believe they know best, you cannot even be 100% safe in gold. At the end of the day, they make the rules. That said, in my view, we're still a long way away from there being anything like confiscation. Paper currencies will probably have to blow up before we get to that stage.
  20. allyjcambo

    Jim Sinclair thread (News & Views)

    I think that's an very good point, PB, in what was a very thoughtful post. A parabolic rise in gold could result in governments taking it off your hands or at least banning you from using it. Gold's rise since 2000 has managed to stay below the radar. Long may that continue.
  21. allyjcambo

    GOLD

    Agreed, I need to get more moved out of GBP.
  22. allyjcambo

    GOLD

    Indeed he does! I still think he has a lot to offer, but his propensity to rewrite history (in terms of his predictions) concerns me. He was spectacularly right last year but of cource past performance is not a guide to future returns etc....
  23. allyjcambo

    GOLD

    I agree with that Pixel8r: to me, it is the key point. I allowed myself to be thrown off the gold bull earlier in the year (not completely but about 30% of my holding). Of course, I regret that now as we revisit the GBP highs. Part of me thinks I'd have been better off not listening to Howe St, Financial Sense, reading GEI, Moneyweek, the Economist etc... because it leads me to constantly feel pressure to fine tune my holdings. To ride this gold bull I think one of the following two approaches will probably suit most: (a) either constantly keep on top of the gold market and all its intricacies (the way you do Pixel8r) or ( buy and hold and try not to think about it too much . The latter probably suits me better but then again I enjoy reading all the interesting stuff on gold which people post here. The other strange thing is that despite being fairly well versed in and agreeing with most of the arguments for holding gold and dumping GBP I still hold at least 50% of my wealth in this currency. I guess the fiat culture is ingrained in me, even though I can see that, in long run, its future looks bleak.
  24. allyjcambo

    GOLD

    No surprises for guessing who's behind this article.....DT's Ambrose Evans Pritchard. Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for 'global collapse' Société Générale has advised clients to be ready for a possible "global economic collapse" over the next two years, mapping a strategy of defensive investments to avoid wealth destruction. In a report entitled "Worst-case debt scenario", the bank's asset team said state rescue packages over the last year have merely transferred private liabilities onto sagging sovereign shoulders, creating a fresh set of problems. Overall debt is still far too high in almost all rich economies as a share of GDP (350pc in the US), whether public or private. It must be reduced by the hard slog of "deleveraging", for years. 'Debt levels risk another crisis' "As yet, nobody can say with any certainty whether we have in fact escaped the prospect of a global economic collapse," said the 68-page report, headed by asset chief Daniel Fermon. It is an exploration of the dangers, not a forecast. Under the French bank's "Bear Case" scenario, the dollar would slide further and global equities would retest the March lows. Property prices would tumble again. Oil would fall back to $50 in 2010. [Odd comment, weaker USD and oil at $50??] Governments have already shot their fiscal bolts. Even without fresh spending, public debt would explode within two years to 105pc of GDP in the UK, 125pc in the US and the eurozone, and 270pc in Japan. Worldwide state debt would reach $45 trillion, up two-and-a-half times in a decade. (UK figures look low because debt started from a low base. Mr Ferman said the UK would converge with Europe at 130pc of GDP by 2015 under the bear case). The underlying debt burden is greater than it was after the Second World War, when nominal levels looked similar. Ageing populations will make it harder to erode debt through growth. "High public debt looks entirely unsustainable in the long run. We have almost reached a point of no return for government debt," it said. Inflating debt away might be seen by some governments as a lesser of evils. If so, gold would go "up, and up, and up" as the only safe haven from fiat paper money. Private debt is also crippling. Even if the US savings rate stabilises at 7pc, and all of it is used to pay down debt, it will still take nine years for households to reduce debt/income ratios to the safe levels of the 1980s. The bank said the current crisis displays "compelling similarities" with Japan during its Lost Decade (or two), with a big difference: Japan was able to stay afloat by exporting into a robust global economy and by letting the yen fall. It is not possible for half the world to pursue this strategy at the same time. SocGen advises bears to sell the dollar and to "short" cyclical equities such as technology, auto, and travel to avoid being caught in the "inherent deflationary spiral". Emerging markets would not be spared. Paradoxically, they are more leveraged to the US growth than Wall Street itself. Farm commodities would hold up well, led by sugar. Mr Fermon said junk bonds would lose 31pc of their value in 2010 alone. However, sovereign bonds would "generate turbo-charged returns" mimicking the secular slide in yields seen in Japan as the slump ground on. At one point Japan's 10-year yield dropped to 0.40pc. The Fed would hold down yields by purchasing more bonds. The European Central Bank would do less, for political reasons. SocGen's case for buying sovereign bonds is controversial. A number of funds doubt whether the Japan scenario will be repeated, not least because Tokyo itself may be on the cusp of a debt compound crisis. Mr Fermon said his report had electrified clients on both sides of the Atlantic. "Everybody wants to know what the impact will be. A lot of hedge funds and bankers are worried," he said. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...l-collapse.html
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