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GatheringStorm
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Posts posted by GatheringStorm
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Is this something I should worry about as a holder of physical PMs and Gold stocks?
Is precious metals trading for retail investors about to be illegal in the US? or is it just a hoax? Would appreciate comments. Apologies if posted before by others.
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The price of gold has soared in recent years, but experts warn that the bubble could burst all too easily
One of these "experts" who has sold out of gold was from the Jupiter Absolute Return Fund whose year to date performance is -1.76%. Whereas £gold is up circa 17% ytd.
Looks like he sold the one bit of his portfolio he shoulda kept.
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Which company did you use to open these ISA's?
They're with 4 different providers for (probably illusory) additional safety.
However, I find Fidelity the best. The easiest and most robust trading platform over several years and the quickest execution of the buys. Link below.
https://www.fidelity.co.uk/investor/default-direct.page
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Because I currently have no job and no income, and the kind of fall Bonner is mooting will slash my nominal wealth drastically if I remain heavily invested in gold. Periodically loading up the truck isn't an option for me because I don't have any money coming in!
Gold price forecasters are a dime a dozen. In truth, none of them have a clue. I would like to see Bill Bonner's supporting calculations. Or perhaps he's using that most useless of all indicators, his gut feeling.
Unless you're leveraged this routine pullback is a non event imho.
I'm sorry to hear you have no job. The only way to make money in gold so far has been to refuse to puke up when everyone else is - but that would be so much harder to do when you need a war chest to survive on.
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I'm interested in the views of both. I take Mish more seriously but Bonner has got me somewhat spooked.
Why would you be spooked at the prospect of a fabulous buying opportunity? Get the truck serviced!
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Which gold stocks are you in? My ISA is splt between CEY (40%) and MML (60%). Should really diversify at some stage but these are excpetional companies imo - MML are producing gold at $180 an oz and expanding production strongly. There is a good thread on advfn
My ISAs are my core long term holding of gold stocks and because of that would never hold juniors within them as the volatility would expend too much of my emotional capital. They are deliberately non trading ISAs to keep me from being shaken out by the frequent manipulation.
I hold only Investec Global Gold and Blackrock Gold and General inside the ISAs.
It's been tough during some of the drawdowns, especially in 2008 but the 2005 ISA is at circa £25k currently.
I wouldn't dream of doing what you're doing and holding just two LSE listed juniors. Too hard on the nerves!
What's wrong with ZJG.to or GDXJ? They're the ones that will mop up the mania if it ever happens!
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My work is calling for a major peak in gold/HUI in late March 2011 and I'll try and pin that to a day or two nearer the time - I personally think Jim Sinclair's date for the 2nd week in January is going to be too early.
I have 6 ISAs stuffed with gold stocks (5 in profit) and I hope you're right but I genuinely doubt that TA can forecast the future with such certainty - especially as the HUI continually disappoints.
I'm surprised at how little gold stock talk there is on this board - must still be very early days!
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Interesting, the front page of the FT website has a headlining story about Britons buying sovereigns and britannias in large numbers to avoid CGT. I can't access as I don't have a subscription?
Buying Brittannias and Sovereigns doesn't avoid cgt in itself. You have to sell at a (nominal) profit for any avoidance of cgt to take place.
I still doubt that "large numbers" of Brits are buying bullion of any sort.
Will there be a cgt allowance? Or will everyone selling anything for a profit be liable?
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Plenty of posters here saying they could not bring themselves to buy at £500 a few years ago...
"a few years ago..."
£500 was about 18 months ago actually
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Gold is a bit difficult for me at the moment. I'm sitting on a good profit with my gold stocks - the sort of profit I always took in recent years.
I'm in this position as well. Oct. 2008 is vivid in my memory. It would be so slick to duck the next downleg in the p.m. stocks and load up when the blood is flowing in the streets again.
However, when the time comes there's bound to be some story floating around that makes you think the p.m. stocks won't bounce in the same way.
I've compromised so far and sold my frothier holdings such as Osisko which are in the RSI (over 70) danger zone but am hanging on to stuff like Wesdome and Claude which have also been good to me.
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There is a real chance of another deleveraging dip ahead.
Absolutely! - but we know what to do this time don't we? Buy the **** out of it.
I keep looking at what gold stocks did in October 2008. Multi multi baggers there for the taking. Won't be had the same way twice.
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Thanks for the interesting comments on Ebay (which I don't follow) and scrap issues. Here a little additional confirmation that we are early in this market:
If that were a stock or an index I would say the base being formed on the right hand side is a thing of beauty.
However this is a ratio. I'm never too sure whether TA works on ratios?
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Snap. But I wouldn't be surprised if they are trying to scare a few more into selling before driving the market down as much as they can...before hoovering it all up themselves.
I think physical buyers are the strongest hands of all. Unlike many paper traders, physical holders know exactly why they are in this market, understand the fundamentals and have no trouble riding out the volatility.
As for the man/woman on the street, jewellery holder, these people tend not to listen to the media that usually broadcast the the misinformation such as the BBC, CNN etc. so cannot be "scared out" but they can of course be seduced by the daytime TV "turn your old gold bling into cash" ads.
I think gold stocks are where it's at now. Sentiment is crap and the early speculators are getting battle weary but I think reinforcements are close at hand!!!
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The scrap dealers in the UK are really busy. The assay / foundry offices run out of money by lunch time / early afternoon ( some have upto 6 windows with a huge wad of cash each first thing in the morning ) with the amounts of gold comming in from the wheeler dealers, that they have bought off the public. They are then having no problems selling it off to the mints.
This tells us that we're early to the party. As long as the amateurs continue to sell to the pros, then personally, I'm confident the bull market in gold is alive and well.
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This time last year the deals would last all weekend until at least Sunday lunch time.
In a similar vein, has anyone noticed how few 1 oz gold coins there are on ebay. Back in 2005 when I started buying there were typically over 100 available from UK sellers at any one time. Now it's down to about 15 or so. They were around £245/£250 back in 2005.
In case anyone's worried about the volatility of paper gold they can observe that the ebay price is much steadier and isn't prone to sudden take downs like paper gold.
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Does anyone know where I could get a long term (ie from 1985 - present) chart of Silver priced in Yen?
http://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do
You can get a 20 year silver in yen chart here
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There is an excellent opportunity today to acquire wealth and avoid debt [free-hold property] by riding this gold bull market up. These opportunities do not come along often.
The logic is simple; swap your weakening currencies for strengthening gold. Wait and then buy property when prices have deflated.
I concur with this. Having missed the huge tech stock bubble and the housing bubble, missing a third easy money opportunity would be shear carelessness on my part.
As far as I can tell, precious metals and maybe commodities are presenting that chance. Unlike many on here and HPC I don't see the point of arguing why gold is overpriced. I think "trade what you see" is very good advice. If it's going up then I ought to be in it.
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History - few have made money with gold many have preserved their wealth through difficult times.
Excuuuuuuuse me - I was buying Krugers off ebay for around £250 each in 2005 - look at 'em now!
As for manipulation I'm not convinced - how come the price goes up every year? If that's manipulation then more please!
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what pete waterman is gonna sort them out
Yeah, with help from Stock and Aitken.
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Gold tends to go up if stocks are going down and visa versa.
Patently not true. Gold and the broad markets rose together 2003 - 2008. I think that proves that gold's price action cannot be summed up as simplistically as that.
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Gold outperformed cash ISAs, property and shares over last 10 years
You'd get flamed for posting that over on HPC. I can never work out why some people seem to loathe gold so much. That's why I'm convinced this bull market has barely started. They'll start to get it when we're thinking of selling.
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If you got a minute to spare, pull up a chart of Pinetree Capital pnp.to (up 147% on the last weeks trading!!!)
Pinetree is a basket of junior miners as I understand it. I hope this sort of performance comes to my portfolio soon!
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I think that it already starting to happen, just not to all in a mania yet. Take a look at SLW (+110%) RGLD (+105%) AUY (+60%) in the last month or so. All the gold stocks got massively oversold, the true gems are starting to move, the rest will follow soon.
the CDNX has looked very perky these last four trading days but it could be that the manipulators are on their hols.!
It looks like the HUI/CDNX are capable of decoupling from a sideways DJIA but I still doubt whether they could shrug off another broad market sell off.
I wish I'd had the fortitude to buy the HUI when it was below 160 recently! On a historical chart, trades look like no brainers, the TA is screaming out at you but move over to the right hand edge and all of a sudden, nothing is quite so obvious!
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I notice that Krugerrands are now getting bids over £720.00 now on eBay. I've been a bug since 2005 (thanks to Doc Bubb as it happens) but surely "little guy's" gold is getting a bit overbought now?
It seems only yesterday I was buying Krugs for £245.00. I'm surprised these prices aren't liberating more dusty old bullion coins from "deep storage" and onto the market.
I only wish this kind of mania would hit the gold stocks!
GOLD
in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
Posted
Martin Armstrong bullish on gold!
"Gold Upside Take off only Months Away"
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/11/14_Martin_Armstrong_-_Gold_Upside_Take_Off_Only_Months_Away.html