huntergatherer
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Posts posted by huntergatherer
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Silver in Freefall- Gold not far behind? What's next?
If silver tops around $50, then based on previous corrections we would expect it to correct to the $27 - $30 range.
Being long silver was quite painful and certainly was worse than what was felt by those holding gold. Silver does appear at this time to be close to a local bottom though not necessarily its final bottom.
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How Low Can Gold and Silver Technical Support Go?
May 06 2011
The price action shows support at $1425-$1450. The previous breakout point was about $1435. The 300-day MA (long-term support) is at $1297 and rising. The 200-day MA is at $1356 and rising.
Silver already reached our $33-$34 downside target. We thought Silver would break $40 this week but we didn’t expect it to go below $37-$38. The ultimate bottom could come in the $28 to $30 range. Also keep an eye on the 300-day MA as it has provided consistent support throughout most of the bull market.
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/the-daily-gold/how-low-can-gold-and-silver-technical-support-go.html
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PRECIOUS-Silver dives for 5th day, set for worst week since 1983
Thu May 5, 2011 4:33pm GMT
* Silver set for biggest weekly slide since at least 1983
* iShares Silver ETF holdings drop, most since early 2008
* Gold dragged down as much as 2 pct in commodities rout
Silver has now lost more than 20 percent, the conventional
criteria for a bear market, since it surged to a record high
near $50 an ounce last Thursday. Silver's sharp decline for a
fifth day appeared to trigger sharp losses in crude oil and
other commodities. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB index .CRB was
set for its biggest weekly fall since late 2008.
"It's going to be a long time before silver can find a
bottom to turn higher again," said Dennis Gartman, publisher of
the Gartman Letter.
"When you have this kind of damage, it will take several
weeks or maybe several months for people to be taken out, and
for confidence to be rebuilt," said Gartman. "It's not the end
of the commodities cycle, not even close."
Spot silver XAG= fell as much as 8 percent to a six-week
low of $35.82 an ounce, down about 25 percent so far this week.
Was silver a bubble? I think to a large extent it was. It's
notoriously volatile. The fundamentals of silver are simply not
as good as gold's," said Stephen Briggs, analyst at BNP
Paribas.
Investors scrambled out of physical silver, as reflected by
the 15.3 million-ounce fall on Thursday in metal holdings in
global ETFs, with the world's largest -- the iShares Silver
Trust staging the second-biggest one-day fall since its
inception in 2006. [GOL/ETF]
http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFLDE7440RL20110505
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"Three Peaks and the Domed House" Pattern Suggests Gold Going to $1,290!
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"Three Peaks and the Domed House" Pattern Suggests Gold Going to $1,290!
the “Plunge” phase has now begun and gold should experience a 17% decline to $1,290 per ozt.by the end of June.
we could see silver correct down to the $39 level (i.e. -15%) and possibly go down to the $33 level (i.e. -28%) which would correspond to the “Plunge” phase of the gold index.
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Is a Healthy Correction Overdue in Gold and Silver?
The current blow off move means that a correction could be quite painful for the investor who has overextended by accumulating at euphoric levels.
Do not get me wrong, I believe silver and gold’s long term trend could push gold to $3,000 and silver to $100 by 2013, but I'm welcoming a short-term healthy correction of at least 20% in silver before I will consider buying again. I will wait for pullbacks and not chase the metal at these elevated levels.
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Spot Silver Drops 12% In 11 Minutes As Bulls Routed.
SYDNEY—Spot silver suffered one of its most severe drops on record early Monday, as bulls who have driven the metal up to 31-year records failed to carry it above $48 a troy ounce and were routed in a headlong collapse.
The metal fell 12% in just 11 minutes when the fall was at its most severe. Spot silver saw its informal open at $47.863/oz before rising to a peak of $48.150/oz; it then sold off sharply to a base of $42.210 before stabilizing.
Jonathan Barratt, director of Commodity Broking Services in Sydney, said the sell-off repudiated bulls who were suspected of driving the price up to sell their own positions at a profit.
"You've had the technical move now and people will start to backfill that with fundamentals," he said.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704569404576297840351753636.html#articleTabs%3Darticle
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Headed for a Silver Correction: Take Profits or Go Short
In the classic investors chase for performance, investors may be getting ahead of themselves. Through last Thursday’s close, silver as measured by SLV was up 25% in the last month. Over the past 60 trading days, silver prices have jumped nearly 60% and now stand at almost at four standard deviations above the average price move (see chart below). As a trend follower, I recognize the likelihood of mean regression, and the further the standard deviation above the mean, the more dangerous the trade becomes. This is not an exact science, and the price could move higher before correcting, but simply put, the risk to be invested in silver today is too high to justify the reward.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/265377-headed-for-a-silver-correction-take-profits-or-go-short
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Rise of Gold ETFs Raises Concern of Price Collapse
Friday, 29 Apr 2011 01:34 PM
The explosive growth of precious metals-linked exchange traded funds has prompted some market watchers to warn that those shiny investment vehicles could increase the speed and depth of a future crash.
That sizable outflow, which he said could be in the range of 200 tonnes to 300 tonnes -- or 10 percent or more of the total holdings of gold ETFs — could cause a sharp drop in the price of gold to $900 or lower.
The last time that gold crashed, in 1980, it dropped by 60 percent in one year, and that was before ETFs, said Williams.
http://www.moneynews.com/FinanceNews/Rise-Gold-ETFs-Raises/2011/04/29/id/394590
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Warning! Silver Will Fall by 66%
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/04/29/warning-silver-will-fall-by-66.aspx
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$37.20 now
caught the dip at $34
got some Phillys Maples and Libertads
havent bought Libertads before and they are very dull
ie: not shiny like the other 2
delivery was by UPS and I was supposed to check the seal ,weigh the package
and then sign for them , I found them sitting on my windowsill by the front door
was tempted to claim they never arrived but conscience won out in the end
would be surprised to see sub $30 silver again
but if I do its load up time
Know what you mean.
Caught the dip at sub $9 ($8.81) when purchased Ag at $18 (halved in dollar terms)
Ag quadrupled since then and $18 purchase doubled.
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Which countries are currently confiscating pensions?
I can see a few problems with the confiscation of pensions in the UK.
If it is undertaken by the Conservatives, it will hurt a lot of their own people. If it is done, it would probably be under a Labour government.
Gordon Brown (Old Labour) already robbed (confiscated) the pensions and abolished tax credits on so called tax efficient vehicles at the time.(PEPS)
Funds have been confiscated from the private sector to pay for public sector gold plated pensions, mal-investment, fraudulent practice and the large blackhole caused by them.
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The vast majority are actually the poorest. These are going to be paying back for years, with no obvious benefit.
Remeber, only 13% of the population earn over the average wage.
The median wage is the only meaningful comparison. 50% of the population earn a lot less than the average wage.
The average wage includes the high earners as well so of course only a small majority will earn over the average wage.
The middle class and the public sector worker are likely to earn the average wage and they are not poor and they are likely to be the ones that overborrowed and overspent much to everyone elses detriment.
So yes the vast majority are actually the poorest however the ones that were able to borrow large multiples of their high wages/salaries are the ones going to be paying back for years because the poor were unable to borrow such huge sums.
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Gold / Silver Price Ratio Near Multi-Decade Lows
February 10, 2011
The gold-to-silver price ratio, defined as the price of an ounce of gold divided by the price of an ounce of silver, closed Wednesday at 45.16 This means an ounce of gold is just over forty five times more expensive than an ounce of silver.
As my chart below shows, twenty years ago in 1991, gold was over 100 times more expensive than silver. Since then, the gold-to-silver price ratio never went below 41.51.
The chart also shows that it is very rare for gold to be less than 50 times more expensive than silver, as indicated by the small percentage of time the ratio is below the dashed black line.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/251918-gol...lti-decade-lows
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That was great
:lol:+1
Sellers very much still locked into the denial stage of 2007 asking prices but we are now in 2011.
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Silver Price Forecast $86.75 in 2011
Dec 02, 2010 - 06:38 AM
There's that forecast again. I've seen something simliar to that before...
Up 25 cents?
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Gold Forecast $3,424 and Silver $86.50 in January 2011
Of course this never happened.
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You have been painting a pessimistic picture with all of the negative G&S articles recently, I assumed you thought the price would fall further.
The bearish articles might considered by some to be bullish and vice versa. Very much depends on the reader. I think the price could fall further as more of the weaker hands are finally shaken out.
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I trust you are selling then?
Not for a while.
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Why silver might fall to as low as $21-$24
Still not the time to be buying.
http://www.straightstocks.com/precious-met...e-even-further/
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Gold Bug Alert:
Chartists infest gold market
Published: February 3 2011 23:40 | Last updated: February 3 2011 23:40
Psychologists have a rich seam in the overlap between gold bugs, chartists and conspiracy theorists. That overlap is causing problems right now for many hard-core gold investors. Their tendency to believe in the power of charts to predict prices – technical analysis, as its followers call it – suggests the gold price should fall.
Supposedly one of the most powerful signs that prices will fall is a “triple top”, three equal price spikes. This pattern appeared for gold last month, and was followed last week by another chartist sell signal: the 30-day moving average price dropped below the 50-day average. When this happened a year ago, gold fell $75.
The view of believers in efficient markets was neatly summed up by Burton Malkiel in A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Reading charts, he said, was no better than alchemy.
If the chartists are right, gold should go down another 3 per cent, to reach the 200-day moving average: the “support level”. If that is broken, gold can keep dropping; if it holds, then the charts will suggest the decade-long gold bull market remains in place.
The more investors believe in charts, the better they will work – hence the focus on obscure patterns in foreign exchange, where there are no short-term fundamentals. The gold market, too, is infested with chartists. They must be hoping the charts are wrong.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fca334de-2fe5-11...l#axzz1D1cOWBM2
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Hi HG, I notice a steady stream of gold bear articles being posted by yourself of late. Care to add your own comments to these pieces? Or do these articles perfectly sum up what you are thinking currently?
Cheers
Hi DS, My core position in Au was purchased below $925 so have a buffer to corrections. I have tried not to buy on the highs and try to remain alert on the falls with prices falling back to say $1250-$1000 or below (if at all possible) would bring me back into the market with remaining funds.
The price certainly got ahead of itself in the run up from the autumn and did not buy into rally up.
Since Au purchases I have bought back into Ag in autumn 2009 which, as we know, went up 82% last year with Au up 28%. I have posted some bearish articles as evidence of bearish market sentiment which probably sums up some current thinking but each to their own etc. Cheers
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Gold fails in the battle for higher risk appetite opportunities
Published on: February 02, 2011 at 16:35
As Gold makes slow and steady decline, investors are turning to higher risk appetite investments virtually ditching the yellow metal which gave them safe haven for long.
Traders and speculators in the international market did not find any reason to go long at the moment because the big hedge funds were keeping money away from the Gold market.
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Gold-f...-36164-3-1.html
:lol:
SILVER
in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
Posted
You Should Short Silver and Gold at These Prices
May 12, 2011
I think silver and gold, both will settle the week lower. For the faint heart, staying away from precious metal for next couple of trading sessions might be a good idea. For aggressive traders, best risk reward is presented by getting short exposure to silver.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/269585-you-should-short-silver-and-gold-at-these-prices