woody

Blimey, that was a quick move. Looks $ related to me. Possibly a renewed effrot to support the dollar after failing to get the oil price down with supply?

I'm feeling quite positive after today. Isn't tomorrow triple or quadruple witching though in NY? If this week is a pre-cursor to the position changes it could be good but I'm leaving short-term money off the table tomorrow as it is going to be a wild ride and I just know I'll get sucked in :-)

It came earlier today so we're probably due a rally in silver shortly. Gold seems less pronounced and I'd expect gold to perhaps come back closer to $900 before it pushes on.

Fingers crossed. The heavy selling on NYMEX started this time yesterday and in about an hours time on the 17th so that'll overhang if it happens again.

It was the news that China is raising the price to ease demand on refineries. Difficult to quantify as they express it in Yuan per tonne but it is significant for being the first increase in 8 months. Whiskey & Gunpowder this morning was suggesting that Saudi doesn't have nearly the reserves it has lead everyone to believe and has already passed peak oil with a sharp decline in production to come. It says Bush knows that and may behind other statements from Brown earlier in the week. This weekend's meeting, I expect, will say no to more production from Saudi or may even reveal worse news. Of course, all that is bullish for Gold and Silver and, I agree, they're looking great here.

Still slipping. That's my intra-day profit gone :-) Must learn not to touch crude oil CFDs!!! I'll regret that on Monday probably when it rallies again!!

There's a trade. Got to be an over-reaction.

Makes sense. Hah, said I'd be kicking myself :-)

There's a short-term trade to be had at a few levels before $950 and after before we get back to the $1000 mark. We're a while away from that though I think although would love to be wrong :-)

Long? He, he. You're braver than me. Good luck with it.

Nice. I've closed off the silver intra-day long at $17.60 which I may kick myself for in a few hours. I'm still well long from much lower down on core positions but this was a bit of fun (and about the first time I've profited from CFDs other than by accident!!!). Silver is looking a bit different to gold on my chart in that despite the volatility, it never breached the uptrend. It remains on a $14 price objective though and needs to trade up above $18 to give a new buy signal and fail that low objective. Resistance then at $18.50. Gold is at $906 now. We might see that $910 yet you know. Next resistance $935 then! A close above $900 would make me happy though.

Well my intra-day theory worked! Little profit on the London short, and running a great position on the NY long. Just need to time closing that and opening the NY/Asian short now although looks like we're in for a strong day!

In P&F terms we've broken through the long-standing down-trend and set a price-objective of $970. A high above $900 today gives a double-top buy signal and we're away. It was looking a bit dodgy late last week but we're now in a pattern of rising highs and lows and critically from a P&F perspective, longer columns of X than O. If the push above $900 fails, it looks like we've built good support at $885 and $875 now.

Is it me or is there a pattern developing here? Note the sell off in London followed by the sharp early rally in NY, sell off in NY, stable in Asia. The last 3 days have all been like this. It is something I'm tempted to trade!

I'm in both. LOIL.L is fun too!

I'm disappointed as I really thought we'd have more of a run than that after Friday. The fundamentals remain really positive but we seem to have a market with no clear view of what the future holds and which is being wildy thrown around by rhetoric. I'm stunned at how the 'talk' about higher US interest rates is having such an effect and nobody is questioning how it differs to events. That said, I do wonder to what extent the news hungry market is being assisted by the threatened G8 intervention in hammering gold and bolstering the dollar on the back of this talk.

WASHINGTON, June 9 (Reuters) - U.S. President George W. Bush on Monday said a strong dollar was in the interest of the United States and the global economy and that energy prices were high. "Strong dollar's in our nation's interest. It is in the interest of the global economy," Bush said before leaving for Europe. Got to be bullish for gold Lehman results look awful and the $6bn rights issue not good. Gold seems to be trading off with the market on the back of it though.

Oil was down but looks like it is bouncing now. I'm getting a strong feeling we might have a mad session in NY again.

I've only recently started accumulating physical but due to VAT on silver tend to hold gold personally and silver in a company. My preference is for bars but I think that is just vanity and most people seem to like coins. In the UK Sovereigns and Britannias have a privileged tax position which makes them more popular and I've picked up a few. Amongst the bars though I go for 1oz gold and 1kg silver. ne thing you'll find though is that premium bobs about from dealer to dealer and day to day so I'm tending to go with the lowest at the particular time rather than worry unduly about the type and denomination being ideal. W

London is open and we're off to the races

Just dug up this old (2000) article: Is Gold Dead? Note the gold/oil ratio in those years, it overshot the historic mean by a significant margin - 35 in 1973, 20 in 1979!!! Lovely quote at the end too: Woody

I'd never heard of basis before this article Steve but from his explanation earlier in the article the other terms describe the position of the futures price to the basis price, which I now understand to be the price it comes out the ground at. If in contango, with a futures price ahead of the basis price, producers are inclined to go short in the futures market as a hedge. If in backwardation they get squeezed on existing shorts and stay out of the futures market as they're already long. The normal position is contango and backwardation is rare. His point is those guys are studying the moves here to try and gauge the supply status. I could be a million miles away with that interpretation!! Woody

Woh, still coming down from yesterday :-) Sadly London closed before the real liveliness kicked in late on in the session so I can't wait for Monday morning to see the impact feed through to the Lonond-listed ETFs. It also seemed that oil just wanted to keep on running, the pit limits kicked in but the electronic trading just drove it up and up so the prospects for NY opening are very exciting :-) Great to see Gold finally made a new P&F double-top breakout yesterday and looking great for a run from here. The chart says $980 but there's a few hurdles on the way: Similarly oil is in new territory after its own double-top breakout with a indicative objective of $172: What has me intrigued though is the gold-to-oil ratio which broke sharply downwards yesterday and shows no sign of perking up: It shows absolutely no sign of halting its fall and even though there is possibility (but no indication) of a bounce it is such a long way from the historic mean. Does anyone have any scenarios or thoughts on this as it isn't a metric I've studied until recently? Whilst I think tensions will keep oil high, I'm hoping that those factors will spurt gold on and the pull of the ratio will cause gold to outperform. Even if the ratio only spiked back to the downtrend line at circa 8x that implies $1100 gold at $138 oil. $1376 gold at $172 oil and I'll wee myself if I think of $172 oil on the historic ratio. In reality of course, I expect the ratio will ease due to falling oil but there still seems good short-term upside and potential for a medium term run from here. To end on a more sobering note, silver is still testing its up-trend but may form a new bullish pattern next week: The gold-to-silver ratio is still bearish but, again, may bounce next week. I'm not even going to do the sums on that one!! Woody

Heating oil has just hit the NYMEX limit, looks like Crude is going to follow!!! George Bush is speaking on the economy later, that is sure to yield safe haven buying

There's at least a couple of Dollars upside in crude still I reckon - I'd expect shorts to come in again at $135, $ still really weak so it all looks good for gold short term. I think there's a good degree of catching up there too, especially to oil. I've got so many things crossed this'll probably be the last post for today!!