THEBIGMAN

LOL dopamine! I share your pain...

Fascinating article by Antal Fekete regarding recent PM volatility and using basis as a trading tool:

Prices, price ratios, volume and open interest statistics, COT reports can be, and probably are, manipulated and falsified in order to mislead market participants and scare them away from real gold. They can have paper gold as much as they want, provided that they are willing to settle in cash. They are offered a posh spot in fools' paradise. But no matter how all these signals are manipulated or falsified, the basis is a pristine market signal that never lies. It can be neither manipulated nor falsified because it shows the divergence between paper gold and real gold. It is a seizmographic signal that picks up rumblings in the bowels of the earth half way around the globe, foretelling the coming of earthquake. The basis will tell you well in advance when all the offers to sell real gold or silver are about to be withdrawn in all the markets of the world. Once that happens, infinite demand will confront zero supply. Don't say it can't happen here. It has happened locally in France in 1796, in Germany in 1923, in China in 1947, to mention but three episodes. This time it will happen globally. I shall tell you all about it in Canberra.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-11110.htm

Well, gold surged over the last few years on correct expectations that inflation (CPI/RPI) would rise. Gold now seems to be falling back because the expectations going forward from here have changed.

Oh, for sure. It's just that a few fundamental truths still apply - western nations are deep in debt - particularly their profligate governments. Since politicians almost invariably take the easy or short-termist solution to any problem (elections approaching, see) they are almost certain to switch the metaphorical printing presses on, and be damned with the consequences (they're alright, they'll vote 'emselves a payrise - and an increased expense account). Where does all the money go? Peeps ain't buyin' property no more. Why the shift in expectations?

Gold has shed 20%, so it needs to gain 25%, just to get to where it started. And it was cheap at the peak, apparently, was it not? I had always thought that the very first rule of TA was don't try to catch a falling knife. If you miss the bottom by 10%, so what?

Very good point. My personal gut feeling is that there's gonna be the mother of all bounces, however that might just be wishful thinking...

I find that sulking helps. Whaddaya gonna do? Sell PM holdings? And buy what exactly? Cash is gash. Stocks have the pox. Bonds are, uh, erm... one minute, for blondes. Mortar 'n' bricks are for <censored>. Fudge it all, might as well hold for the inevitable bounce. And then hold some more. And until then, I'm gonna keep sulk sulking and write a very stiff letter to the Mogambo Guru. 100% Guaranteed.

The markets are teaching a serious lesson in risk-management to commodity traders

Good call. I just can't figure out why PMs have tanked so much in light of latest western inflation figures, money supply figures etc. A cosmic joke indeed. Just wish I had a few extra quid to splash on silver right now...

C'est la vie, wait 'n' see I guess.

Most here prefer it when the price is falling anyway, it seems - fill yer boots and all that.

After seeing silver plummet like it has over the last few days, I'm, er, "filling my boots" alright... unfortunately, with the contents of my rectum. Sigh.

I officially announce the

 

GREAT SILVER SUMMER SALE!

 

Load up now (if you haven't already at $18.40 and $17.30, like me ...).

Heheheh! Buy that man a pint!

Just seen today's silver price. Would you all excuse me whilst I nip outside and start crying like a big baby?

(This sucker loaded up at ~$17.60ish and can't buy on this dip. If he hears a load of technical analysis cobblers about support levels he will reach down the interweb and *throttle* someone)

It looks like it's ready to explode upwards

I'm squeezing my shorts just concentrating over it