Fortune

I'm far from a fan of JP Morgue but unfortunately this isn't going to make much difference to the price of PMs. They have an UNLIMITED line of credit from the Fed, so if the hedgies want their cash settlement they can go ahead and claim it. 20%, 30%, 60%? Just print up some more and here you are sir. Who cares, since it's the fed (and therefore by extention all dollar holders) on the hook and not the JP Morgue. This game will carry on indefinately until some big boy kicks the table over (i.e. China or Russia).

Still we can live in hope they karma catches up with them.

This is an oldie but a goodie: an interesting reminder of gold demand in the 1990's. Fascinating to see how gold was still needed to buy food and other essential supplies even though it was right at the end of the bear market - or should I say near Brown's Bottom in 1999. Gold was and still is money. I wonder who bought the gold that the Koreans and Indonesians sold?

Gold hit by Asian crisis

 

The Asian economic crisis has caused the first major fall in demand for gold in six years.

A report by the World Gold Council, an association of world gold producers, shows a 55% drop in world demand to 342.1 tonnes in the first three months of the year.

The price of gold has seen its biggest slump in over a decade in the past year, plunging from around US$417 an ounce in February 1997 to its current price of around US$298.

It hit an 18-year low of US$276.50 on January 13, 1998.

Overall, gold demand in key developing markets in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America plunged 70% to 178 tonnes, mainly because of selling in Indonesia and South Korea.

 

Jewellery swapped for food

 

When the crisis hit, South Koreans conducted a huge gold-collection campaign to help repay foreign debt, while Indonesians also sold some 64 tonnes to pay for basics such as food.

The South Korean campaign alone yielded 250 tonnes of gold from people who swapped family jewellery for local currency.

But the council said the Korean gold collection campaign was over and there were signs of renewed gold demand there in recent weeks as people bought back the metal they had sold.

However, gold selling had not yet ended in Indonesia, it said.

 

European concerns

 

The council also noted concerns about further central bank sales, especially in Europe. As 11 EU countries prepare to move to monetary union next year, the market continues to suffer from an overhang of the metal.

But the council played down the concerns, saying underlying demand for gold was sound and Europe's big central banks were "gold friendly".

Investors might get a nice surprise when the new European Central Bank revealed its policy on gold reserves shortly, it added.

"The prospects are good for a strong recovery in gold demand during the remainder of the year," said the council's manager of gold-market analysis, George Milling-Stanley.

The gold market has expressed concern that, after handing over a proportion of gold reserves to the European Central Bank, Europe's domestic central banks will sell or lend more of their own stocks, thus depressing the market price.

 

The report noted that in the same three months, demand in the United States rose 10% to 88.1 tonnes and in Europe 15% to 52.1 tonnes. But Japanese demand slumped 40% to 24 tonnes.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/97438.stm

$30.445.

 

I am starting to get concerned about the JPMorgue.

 

(Soon they'll gonna ask the COMEX to turn themselves into a cash exchange for silver. All futures will have to paid for upfront. Only silver delivery will be in the future then ... guaranteed by the JPMorgue ... )

Just goes to show what a nonsense the 'futures' market really is. What a sick joke. Actually I think the whole lot should be abolished. You want to hedge Mr Producer? Tough. Pay up the cash up front and take yer goods just like every other mortal. If you want to gamble with your stuff then go to the casino. Problem solved.

I reckon a lot of folks on here fit the average investor category. Folks looking for a "liferaft" that can help protect them. Yes you can accumulate more ounces via trading intermediate peaks and pull backs etc but you can also lose your shirt that way. I note that one of our more flamboyant gold/silver swinger traders has gone awol after countless attempts at shorting tops and turns.

Ker?

Surfdude, have you got a link to where he made those comments ?

On p.16-17 at http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/GOLD-5000-11-11-09.pdf

As we go into year-end, a close for December ABOVE the 2008 high of $1,033.90 on a nearest future basis will signal a very strong posture in 2010 and we should move up to test the top of the Primary Channel [..] This target will stand at the 1300-1500 level in 2010. Things will start to get politically serious if we start to exceed this Channel & find it provides support thereafter.

If GOLD were to make new highs after November [2009], then we could expect a rally going into April 16th, 2010 or so where we could reach a temporary top at the Primary Channel top [...] It does appear that the BIG change in trend may be in October/November 2010 with a 12 month trend thereafter. An Oct/Nov '10 low would point to an explosive rally for the following year & visa versa.

http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/7193/ma...onggold5000.jpg

Got me some major fiat that I want to be rid of. Probably going to be my final lot (really). Mainly because my salary isn't going to keep up at $1500, 2000, 3000, 4000 etc an oz. The remaining fiat with be just for living expenses. So you can blame me if the Da Boyz jam a clamp on the 'short gold and silver' button within the next few days. Apologies in advance!

Regarding allocated storage, I know that many are happy with the legal aspects of this and are convinced that it is a secure way to store bullion. My thoughts are that they well be safe today and tomorrow but I wonder what would happen for example in a currency crisis. A private company sitting on many tonnes of gold is going to look an awfully tempting fruit to pick by the State. The legal technicalities are not an obstacle to the State in extremis - if necessary, the law can be changed overnight.

 

I expect many have considered this possibility but it is worth remembering that at the precise time that gold becomes a financial lifeboat, someone bigger than you may grab your seat!

I have thought about this possiblity many many times. Believe me I have. Most 'serious' (no disrespect intended) gold-holders have already factored this into their equations. For instance, what are the chances of the US government grabbing gold from a pivate vault versus the chances of the Swiss or British or Hong Kong governments doing the same? The chances depend upon your own political (and geo-political) outlook. I would say the US is at the top of the potential thief list along with the UK. The Swiss however are probably near the bottom of the list. So we are talking about juristiction now right? As usual, do the calculations and hedge as best you can DYODD.

You might ask: so what if the whole world descided to blatantly steal private gold holdings. Really what are the chances of that? I'm not saying its impossible but I personally think it's very unlikely. That scenario sound most definately be like the NWO-era. What's some sovs and krugs in your attic in maistone going to do you for you in that situtation? Good luck trying to cash in your coins then, you will certainly need it. I think what's more realistic is the US and some of its minions going after the metal holdings in the banking system - which is what goldfinger and others have been warning about. Also FOFOA doesn't believe confiscation will happen ever again, and many GEI'ers (including myself) rate his views very highly.

So thus I wouldn't get so hung up about the whole issue. The major thing to consider is the juristiction of your gold holdings. Was it Arch Crawford or someone who said that the best way to protect your wealth from the government was to live in one place, have citizenship from another and keep some your wealth in a third country. But how many people can do that? Just be cautious and do what you think is best for yourself is my humble advice.

To add to that, Havey also mentions the return of backwardation:

In another stunning development for the first time in quite a while gold moved into backwardation on two consecutive days. Yesterday the backwardation from the August to Sept month was 50 cents.

 

Today it was 1.20 with the front month of August higher than the Sept. trading month. However you must be cognizant of the fact that August is a delivery month and Sept is a non delivery month.

 

I would like to see backwardation on the first 3 to 5 months to prove to me absolute shortage of metal and a possible default.

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2010/08/au...commentary.html

Gold AM fix 1/2/10 = $1082

Gold AM fix 25/8/10 = $1237.50

 

$1237.50 - $1082 / $1082 x 100 = +14.37% (Value - Cost / Cost X 100 = gain/loss %)

 

I am very glad that I bought gold over dollars as a safe haven investment, a 14% return over the fiat "safe haven" is an extremely good return.

 

Silver Fix 1/2/10 = $16.23

Silver Fix 25/8/10 = $18.63

 

$18.63 - $16.23 / $16.23 x 100 = +14.78%

 

Even better from silver, which doesn't make sense as it was supposed to deflate.

I was under the impression that RH believed hold both gold and dollars was the best hedge instead of either gold or dollars. Gold forming the core of your wealth, while remaining liquid in dollars (and silver as a gamble). It's a bit disingenuous to suggest otherwise, to say the least.

By selectively choosing your graph you've made it appear there is no bubble.

Show me a graph of gold price, in US dollars, for the last 10 years.

The graph show the ratio of the price of gold in dollars versus the Money of Zero Maturity (cash dollar in your wallet and bank account). The last time gold was 'officially' in a bubble the price of gold touched a ratio of 0.25 of the total dollar paper cash available for folks like you and me (I presume this is only is US-centric rather than a global MZM measure). To even get to get to half of the price that was on offer in the late 70's, gold would have to quadruple from here (something like $4000 per ounce, GF?). So thus no bubble here so far.

ABSOLUTELY when the sheeple finally wake up ( and unfortunately some paper bulls without any physical) to the REALITY that they might as well use monopoly money as fiat as it has exactly the same intrinsic value 0.Why /How anyone with eyes that can see and ears that can hear are still unable to see whats coming down the pipe absolutely staggers me.

It will be at this moment when we will have the start of our 'Freegold' era. And not a moment before. If I were to hazard a guess it would be either in 2012 or 2016. It's all about the cycles, jack...

The problem is what will happen in between though: could be nuked off the face of the earth from an Israel-Iranian WWIII conflict. I just hope we will be all around (and in one piece) to see it.

People rushed to gold in the Weimar hyperinflation and during the Great Depression. It was just for the USD being backed by gold that people would mostly want to hold gold receipts in USD form. So, people who expect the Dollar to do great things this time around might be very disappointed in the end.

I've just noticed this. And I agree (which is the gist of my point).

The dollar was significantly devalued by Roosevelt against gold in the depression, so it isn't really as simple as "the dollar was backed by gold in the depression". Even in the depression, it was best to swap dollars for gold... as long as you could.

 

There is a similiar dynamic at work today, yet the fx market will do for gold by market forces what Roosevelt was able to do by decree... given the currency was pegged at a certain level to gold [mind you it was much easier for Roosevelt to devalue the dollar than it may be for the market to do so relative to other currencies etc].

 

The dollar didn't do great things when you consider the devaluation.... but it still managed to hold its own in prices thanks to continued deflationary pressures... against assets etc, and it most probably will do so again.... to the chagrin of the authorities. Too much is made of the different currency systems, where in the depression it was supposed to be "backed" and ours today isn't. Facts are the depression dollar wasn't so rigidly backed when you consider the price of the dollar was devalued against gold, and today's dollar isn't so unbacked when it is "backed" by debt creation. Money is money, and human behavior can completely trump the "fundamentals" of a currency once a debt deflation sets in. This is the common over-riding factor.

May I add something to this debate.

If I reading you correctly RH are you saying that it was the perception (or 'confidence' if you will) of the dollar which led many to associated it with real value, not just the backing of the dollar to gold? I thought that in the case of the US Great Depression, the pegging of gold to the dollar was one of the primary reasons for the onset of the depression. Reason being that, as gold cannot be printed out of thin air, the amount of dollars in existence reduced in the face of banking failures and money hoarding - a classic deflationary spiral. And so, in order to stop the spiral of falling wages and prices in the economy, the US government confiscated the people's gold to boost the money supply and create inflation. This was their way of 'printing money' on a gold-standard.

Thus (and some others have also argued) in those days it was the perception of dollar as being backed by gold which gave them the confidence to have faith in the dollar as money. In the present era, people still hold on to this belief even though all currencies are now fiat since 1971 - they believe dollars, pounds, yuan, yen, euros are backed by something (if not gold then something precious or valuable). This is why as you say the dollar's purchasing power could still increase measured against many assets yet at the same time decrease when measured against gold. The true awakening in the gold market will only occur when people realised that they have been had for generations.

Recently I have begun to accept this notion of currencies bobbing up and down against each other, with gold (and perhaps silver) as the lord of them all. Well it's the only one that can explain all the paradoxes out there in the global economy. I think.

imo the sensible thing to do would be to remain as liquid as possible in the strongest currencies, namely commodity and reserve currencies. Different people will no doubt have different preferences. For myself, I am 50% in commodity currencies and 50% in reserve currencies. I expect the commodity currencies to slowly strengthen in the future against the reserve currencies. I don't expect the reserve currencies to hyper-inflate, but rather to increase in purchasing power against assets... even though they may not increase in purchasing power against commodity currencies. No certainties of course, which is why I think diversification in the strongest currencies is a sensible and pragmatic approach.

Sounds somewhat similar to Martin Armstrong's approach. Fiat will still surprise everyone and go on a tear in either direction, all the while deprecating against real money. The problem with the dollar is that most foreign governments and central banks don't want it to die just yet (since they hold most of the stuff) so don't be surprised if they do as much as possible to keep it afloat. For instance, Armstrong believe we will see wild swings in the dollar. Although he didn't give any particular targets, it's entirely possible to see an instanity of the USDX at .100 with Gold at $2500. House, cars, boats etc will be very cheap in this scenario measured in dollars but they will also be much much cheaper measured in gold. Just my 50 pence.

Hey all.

Been VERY busy for the past few months with housebuilding and I still haven't finished! Hope to complete the bugger before september, so no PM purchases for me at the moment. On the bright side though I sill have time to exchange real assets and labour for pieces of toilet paper with ink on....

Anyhow, what's up with the dollar? Are we in the death spiral already? Any significant news?

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The open in New York on monday could be explosive with this news....you have less than 24hrs to get your hands on some silver before the moonshot

DOJ Antitrust Division Considering Launching Investigation Into Silver Market Manipulation By JPM

 

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/01/2010 08:36 -0500

 

Eric King reports the breaking news that in a letter obtained by Ted Butler, the DOJ's Antitrust department is considering launching an investigation into silver market manipulation by JP Morgan. Should an announcement of a full formal probe of manipulation by JPM follow, it would be tantamount to a confirmation of what numerous individuals have been claiming over the years, that JP Morgan, the LBMA, the CFTC, various banks, and even that kindly old grandpa who was so much against derivatives except when he was about to lose money as a result of regulation that he is spending the whole weekend telling his investors in Omaha to run, not walk, to Borsheim's, and buy all their massively overpriced trinkets (you can't be a quadrillionaire without first being a trillionaire), are nothing but a borderline criminal cabal that traffics in wealth extraction courtesy of a few monopolist players. As Eric King discloses in its letter the Anti-Trust division announces that "it will carefully consider the issue of silver market manipulation by JP Morgan and other traders. Generally the CFTC investigates these types of market manipulations. However, the suggestion that JPMorgan Chase may be signaling other traders, warrants further analysis. The DOJ will carefully consider the issue you raise, and you can be assured that if we conclude that silver traders have engaged in anti-competitive conduct, we will take appropriate enforcement action."

 

Ted Butler, always cutting to the point, says: "It's about time a major government organization stepped up to end what has been a very serious crime in progress that has basically covered two decades...[JP Morgan's] level of concentration only exists in the silver markets. Concentration is the hallmark of manipulation or a monopoly. Our markets are supposed to be free markets, they are not supposed to be controlled by anybody. Right now the silver market is a monopoly, the chief monopolist is JP Morgan, and the only entity that can step up to JPM is the Antitrust division of the DOJ...If you want to put it into perspective, more important and more serious than what is currently happening with Goldman Sachs. This is a crime in progress, this is an allegation of current market manipulation. This is as serious as you get. You don't get bigger than market manipulation."

 

And, as a scheduled daily reminder to Christine Varney: if you are evaluating JP Morgan for being a silver market monopolist, maybe you can also consider Goldman Sachs for monopolizing the entire global fixed income market (mostly OTC but also cash).

Whoops wrong thread

Whoopsie indeed!

Inside every gold bull is a silver heart?

The open in New York on monday could be explosive with this news....you have less than 24hrs to get your hands on some silver before the moonshot

DOJ Antitrust Division Considering Launching Investigation Into Silver Market Manipulation By JPM

 

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/01/2010 08:36 -0500

 

Eric King reports the breaking news that in a letter obtained by Ted Butler, the DOJ's Antitrust department is considering launching an investigation into silver market manipulation by JP Morgan. Should an announcement of a full formal probe of manipulation by JPM follow, it would be tantamount to a confirmation of what numerous individuals have been claiming over the years, that JP Morgan, the LBMA, the CFTC, various banks, and even that kindly old grandpa who was so much against derivatives except when he was about to lose money as a result of regulation that he is spending the whole weekend telling his investors in Omaha to run, not walk, to Borsheim's, and buy all their massively overpriced trinkets (you can't be a quadrillionaire without first being a trillionaire), are nothing but a borderline criminal cabal that traffics in wealth extraction courtesy of a few monopolist players. As Eric King discloses in its letter the Anti-Trust division announces that "it will carefully consider the issue of silver market manipulation by JP Morgan and other traders. Generally the CFTC investigates these types of market manipulations. However, the suggestion that JPMorgan Chase may be signaling other traders, warrants further analysis. The DOJ will carefully consider the issue you raise, and you can be assured that if we conclude that silver traders have engaged in anti-competitive conduct, we will take appropriate enforcement action."

 

Ted Butler, always cutting to the point, says: "It's about time a major government organization stepped up to end what has been a very serious crime in progress that has basically covered two decades...[JP Morgan's] level of concentration only exists in the silver markets. Concentration is the hallmark of manipulation or a monopoly. Our markets are supposed to be free markets, they are not supposed to be controlled by anybody. Right now the silver market is a monopoly, the chief monopolist is JP Morgan, and the only entity that can step up to JPM is the Antitrust division of the DOJ...If you want to put it into perspective, more important and more serious than what is currently happening with Goldman Sachs. This is a crime in progress, this is an allegation of current market manipulation. This is as serious as you get. You don't get bigger than market manipulation."

 

And, as a scheduled daily reminder to Christine Varney: if you are evaluating JP Morgan for being a silver market monopolist, maybe you can also consider Goldman Sachs for monopolizing the entire global fixed income market (mostly OTC but also cash).

I'm going to stick my neck out here:

 

1. $1033 gold will hold for now and we will see another test of the all-time high. Armstrong's key turning point - April 16 - will see the start of the PM decline; possibly visiting Roman's three figures in dollars and 500's in pounds along the way. Silver the dog will follow in sympathy. Wouldn't surprise me to see the 12's again. Silver bugs you have been warned.

 

2. Possible testing of the crash lows in the DOW in May (around the 11th). Gold bug newbies will jump over the cliff and Jim Sinclair will be swamped (no pun intended) with hate mail.

 

3. Miserable gold and silver consolidation all spring and summer until the epic rally begins in the fall (Oct).

 

You can nail that to a mast.

At the risk of jumping the gun a little too early (or is it too late?), it looks like Armstrong is on the money again. Summer doldrums part two here we come.

they can only take it if they can find it...

I don't think they will confiscate this time around: they will tax the living daylights out of your 'profits'. Look for a 50% capital gains tax on the proceeds of PM's. Gold holders will be as popular as bankers in the mainstream media. Whether you physically own it or not, they will 'confiscate' it from you at the point of sale.

All the signs seems to be pointing towards Asia (or more specifically Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore) and South America as the final defenders of private property rights. What irony! So much for the so-called 'leaders' of the western world - what a joke.

Goldmoney has recently opened a vault in Hong Kong if you don't trust the Swiss (and I increasing don't). Unless you are a millonaire, this is probably the only option left for the little guy / girl.

As I've mentioned before, the only sure way to protect your PM's is to hold physically in at least 2 different countries. Preferably with at least one of those countries outside the anglo-saxon banking orbit (is that even possible?). I'm thinking some in Asia, a little in western Europe and some in South America. Jim Willie keeps his PM's in Puerto Rico, I believe, and the legendary CGNAO is somewhere around that area too. I read somewhere that the ideal way is to own a passport of one country, keep your wealth in one country, and live in another country. But who can do that but the mega rich?

Put it this way: when this thing comes down, there really will be no escape. Don't be under any illusions that you can easily side-step this global crisis with a bag of krugs or brits. We are all going to get shafted in some way. You better believe it. Escaping with a least 75% of your wealth intact will be a result.

But you already sold at $15.50 as you are deflationist. How can anyone believe a word you say when you constantly contradict yourself. If you actually did some research into the cartel and the monthly takedowns at options expiry each month, you wouldn't possibly be thinking of sell around the 24th-26th of each month.

 

My advice to you is steer away from silver as your belife in deflation and refusal to comprehend the gold cartel will mean you carry on selling at the wrong times.

Can't you just give it a rest now? It's all very clear what you think about RH so just leave it be, eh? Why come back to start a fight...it's so petty.

Have to say I'm on the China bears side, such as Rickards and Chanos, on this one. The whole issue of decoupling is an interesting one. I think we'll eventually see decoupling, but in the short/ medium term China's fate looks tied to the project of globalism. What we are seeing now is an asset inflation/ bubble... yet it might take a while for it to pop. Still, the future of gold looks tied to depreciating currencies, and the demise of "market fundamentalism" where it was assumed currencies could themselves trade freely on the market. China is now showing this model to be defunct. The future with gold is one of remonetization imo, not one where it is just another investment vehicle. A completely revamped monetary system may be required to see economies emerge from K winter to spring.

 

South Korean CB today stated they are starting to buy gold. Previously, they had dissed it.

Link?

This is officially the end for Swiss banking secrecy, only the Swiss lower house can preserve the status quo, I think.

 

By the way, AL&K, I ventured to look at your response to me (just ventured to view a single post from you, as I have you routinely blocked!) and found it ignorant, arrogant and repulsive. I reported it. You are a troll. I will NEVER look at a post of yours again. I sincerely hope you are chucked off this board.

 

Swiss upper house approves five bank data deals

Another nail in the coffin for Switzerland. I am seriously considering moving vault to Hong Kong on GM...

Does anyone know what the tax agreement between the the UK and Hong Kong is? Persumably not as bad as Switzerland at the moment right? Or were the 'if you don't hold it, you don't own it' brigade right all along? Decisions, decisions...

So who's willing to make the jump to the Hong Kong vault at GM?