rgleeson

Some truely great stuff posted by QBAssetManagement in this GATA dispatches post:

http://www.gata.org/node/8149

http://www.gata.org/files/QBAssetManagement-12-14-2009.pdf

Came across this on my internet contraption today; a statistical analysis of Silver ETF bar list (not sure if it's been posted already).

http://www.nowandfutures.com/d3/SilverETFs_1_PDF.pdf

Not sure why they bother anyway, why not use the COMEX and Tokyo contract settling technique and just store ETF certificates of another firm - or is that too obviously self referential?

For any BullionVault fans out there (like me), this is their response to me asking whether it's possible for tungsten cored bars to be passed around in the "Good Delivery Circuit" and thereby me owning one. I would have thought that Central Banks were part of the good delivery circuit, but what the hell do I know... BV poo poos the whole idea anyway...

Anyway FYI:

Dear Bimble,

Thank you for your email. As you know, we send independent assayers into the vaults every year to check all the gold bars, and they send their report to our auditors who publish it – on their website – with the full financial audit.

To read the Assayer's Report

http://www.albertgoodman.co.uk/bullionvault/

Last year, the assayers were 100% satisfied with every bar. They are now due to return to the vaults later this month, coinciding with our 2009 financial audit. Meanwhile, we only ever accept bars from accredited vaults and refiners, and anyone who delivered us a gold bar which later turned out to be bad would be liable for the loss.

On top of that, we guarantee every gram of BullionVault gold ourselves:

http://bullionvault.com/help/terms_and_con...0gold%20content

With regards to the alleged tungsten fraud, such fakes could perhaps circulate outside the Good Delivery circuit. But it's unlikely that any such metal could ever make it into accredited storage.

Accredited custodians only take in bars from other accredited vaults, and metal only enters the system from accredited refiners. Even when they bear the correct bar stamps, large gold bars are not usually accepted from people outside the Good Delivery circuit, which is why taking a Good Delivery bar into private possession seriously dents its value. Any potential buyer, lacking the accredited storage history which ensures integrity, would rather deal accredited metal from an accredited source. It's this warranty -- that delivery is good -- which makes the professional wholesale market cost-efficient and liquid.

You can learn more about Good Delivery at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA)'s website. You'll note just how exacting the criteria for refining and assaying are:

http://www.lbma.org.uk/delivery

The Physical Committee's detailed work on weighing scales is also worth reviewing. Because at these tolerances, the difference in density between gold and tungsten would show in a 400-ounce bar. Their very different melting points (1064°C for gold, 3422°C for tungsten) also make the alleged fakes unlikely, as do their physical states when cooled (gold is soft, tungsten brittle). Following back along the chain of integrity – the formal history of who held the bars, when, and in which approved facility – would ultimately lead to the producing refiner, and no amount of "tungsten" fakes would be worth the law suits, let alone the loss of LBMA accreditation.

As regards the rumours and stories themselves, "Impeccably reliable sources" would never tell an internet blogger that "a number of well-heeled market participants bought...gold futures on the London Bullion Market (LBMA)". Not because they wouldn't want to share such information, but for the simple reason that London dealers don't offer gold futures. Spot, forwards and options, yes. But futures, no.

Nor can anyone trade gold "on" the LBMA, because it is a trade association, not an exchange or the market itself. Nor is gold dealt at the London Metals Exchange (LME) as some authors state. It offers base-metal contracts.

Reliable sources of information would know this. They'd at least look it up before publishing.

Kind regards,

Adrian

Take out a paper derivative based investment in silver, to try and take advantage of the paper derivative problems in the world. Do you see where that could fall down?

I do, I do, and I take your point.

But the probability of the price going up without meltdown, is much higher than it going up only in a meltdown.

And im only thinking of cheeky punt...

Conratulations! I'll plug something in, but is very boring, 100 per cent silver bullion, buy and hold for the next 2-3 years at least.

Don't fancy a Leveraged Silver ETFS punt?

http://www.etfsecurities.com/en/document/e...asp#information

I've been eyeing it up for a while now.

Could the people who are perma long and the people who trade short or long all put there trades into http://www.tipythia.com so we can get a clear answer on winning strategies

Sorry for the shameless plug (again), but this is the very purpose of the site, built with you guys in mind!

Since I started reading Housepricecrash and then GEI nearly 3 years ago I've made ~140% non-leveraged GBP gain, first on just 100% long physical gold strategy, but recently (9 months) 50% in HUI gold stocks and canadian junior mining tips. Tips that I got from this forum. All this at a time when most have been losing the shirt of their back. I have you all to thank for that. But I reckon some of you who actively trade must be doing even better, so please consider sharing your trades with tiPythia!!!

Fox network interview with GATA, on the subject of gold price and its manipulation - the presenter points out that all the Gold reserve in Fort Knox (priced today and assuming it is all there) is worth less than what was given to AIG in bailout.

A nice succinct point I think on the relative price of $/gold, and one I wasn't expecting from Fox.

http://news.goldseek.com/GATA/1238518335.php

I look at the chart action on gold, and really - wtf? Does that look like natural market action to anyone?

Are we seeing battle of the banks (central)???

http://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do

You only pay CGT if you realise the profit in paper terms.

You don't hae to sell it all, do you?

 

Also, consider if you physically hold the gold and you bought it, then you can claim you gifted it and the perosn who received it (I think) only pay CGT on the price as it was when bought.. There are always ways around liabilities, I'm sure!

Or wait until there is brand new gold currency, then no CGT at all, since the amount of gold you own has not increased

Any much higher and the missus and I will be in CGT territory. And I thought I f--ked up by buying in October!

How does a Gov make CGT in a bear market. Devalue the currency.

Rage.

Rocket man

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=rzrKlEtxTx4

Edit: I retract this rocket man, my graph was on the wrong time setting

Long term manipilation of gold.

http://www.sprott.com/pdf/not_free_not_fair.pdf

Old report but very good.

I think they have made it pretty clear that they consider other peoples money to be entirely at their disposal.

 

 

in the usa there is obscene talk about raiding the whole 401k pension pool!!!

 

u can be sure brooooon is salivating at the prospect of doing the same in the uk

In exchange we'll give you a U.S Government paper IOU: "I promise to pay the bearer 1 pension"

I think you’re right, but,

 

Swap ‘Gold’ for ‘Uranium that can be used by Alqaeda to make dirty bombs for use against the UK and her allies’

 

Does it matter that your uranium is in Switzerland?

Well they could always invade Switzerland under operation 'Gold Freedom'.

In the event of a confiscation order, I would rather have gold in a Swiss vault protected by Swiss law and sovereignty, than worry about a jail sentence because I have it under my mattress. People who have never broken the law should think hard about how they will really act in such an event. Did most Americans turn in thier gold; if so why?

But then I'm a big BV/GM fan, I prefer the liquidity and margin they offer over coins.

I can see what you’re thinking and I think you’ve potentially got a good point.

 

But, you can’t stop BV turning over their records to HMG if gold ownership becomes illegal.

 

If gold is confiscated (forced purchased) I expect to lose my BV / GM gold. I will not fight to keep it. It’s not worth the life sentence in Guantanamo Bay.

Swap gold for property, lets say a house, and try the scenario again....

The government can issues a CPO (confiscation) for a house I own in UK, but they cannot do the same for a house I own in Zurich.

Now, if our first assumption about I/we owning the BV gold is true, I must own the gold in Zurich under Swiss laws. That is the real question no?

BV is a Company registered in England & Wales. It doesn't matter where your gold is. If there is confiscation, BV will hand it over. The Swiss Government will not stop BV handing gold over to the UK government (?)

 

GM is a Company Registered in Jersey. It's maybe a little bit safer than BV. But I imagine GM will turn over the gold if they are labelled as a terrorist organisation and have all their bank accounts frozen.

Hmmm, would be interested to hear from a legal beagle about that (if we have one on the forum). If BV owned the gold then your statement would sound about right. But in this case, we would be talking about property that I own in Zurich being confiscated by a foreign government.

One more reason for gold and silver to get bombed off their highs: tomorrow is a gold/silver option expiry. The criminals, Gold Cartel and others, who work the Comex almost always ORCHESTRATE a precious metals price dump right before and on the expiries. It is illegal if American anti-trust law means anything, but the CFTC could care less, as they are part of the problem, which is WHY they were included in the Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets.

Should i/we be trading this then?

Or is just the dog wagging the tail in anticipation of a dump?

Invisible barrier at 600Euro.

So through various posts we’ve seen news articles that both Saudi and Iran have converted reserves to gold with China rumoured to be thinking about it.

What no price impact?

Wow, thats huge no? I would not be so happy to receive an ETF in place of physical

So if I have to find gold to settle my futures contract obligation, but can't because no one will sell me physical at all (price is too low). I can cover that contract with an ETF that is trading at the price of my futures market (which is too low).

Did I get that right? Price of the ETF is correlated to the spot price right, so it doesn't have a demand driven price curve like a share? Plus, the spot price is heavily influenced by the futures prices, since more paper changes hands than physical is traded.

It all sounds pretty self referential to me, and that's before we talk about ETF risks.

Edit: Okay, the ETF still has to expand its gold holding. But it would seem some risk is passed from the Option holder to the ETF vendor on price movement

Take advice from the Mises:

http://mises.org/story/3191

Actually I disagree with Murphy in this instance, I think the way out for them is to trash the currency. Devaluation of about 60% and debt equilibrium is normalized. The trick is managing this down and not letting it cascade, which is probably what they are trying to do.

Even the Queen was complaining how her Government gifted funds are 70% down in real terms.

Is anyone taking a punt on the rumoured COMEX squeeze coming this Christmas?

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/gold-l...x/index/a/19867

I think we need to be careful with veering over into Men In Black territory here, as all this talk of government men can perhaps be seen to take some credibility away from the very pertinent and well-informed comments/advice that make up 99% of this great forum.

 

Right now, I'm with Justin Thyme - I've got my physical but Gold simply is not performing as we all expected it to have done by now and if we are all proven wrong then I'd rather be out early than out late. This isn't to say that we are wrong - the economics are all logical, but some of the explanations used do make me wonder sometimes!

As I said, I don't necessarily subscribe to it. But I think a serious discussion has value, and warrants more debate than mocking. It’s certainly as relevant to the gold market as TA.

We live in times when market manipulation is common place, from currency intervention, stock market plunge protection or trading suspension, New Bretton Woods, short suspension, and corporate acquisitions through futures. In such times GATA's argument is persuasive: do you think gold is the only market excluded from Government meddling?

I don't find it laughable; The U.S Government hires people (or has suggested) to do just that on others subjects, such as Iraq.

 

http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/03/report-recruit.html

 

U.S Fed researches TA(why?):

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis

 

I mean, how anyone can really predict a gold price of $650, $350 or $50 when mining companies were hardly turning a profit at $800? People on this forum have openly stated they are trading this advice too!!

 

Now I don't necessarily subscriber to the view that this actually happening, just that the idea is clearly not laughable. Many companies do this, from PR, Advertizing and hedge funds, on the basis that forums post have influence, and if i had a gold suppression agenda it is exactly what I would do.

Edit: I might add that If had other gold agendas I would do it too, eh GF/CG?

government moles infiltrating forums like this with mickey mouse TA to dissuade a few waverers from piling into PMs is laughable.

I don't find it laughable; The U.S Government hires people (or has suggested) to do just that on others subjects, such as Iraq.

http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/03/report-recruit.html

U.S Fed researches TA(why?):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis

I mean, how anyone can really predict a gold price of $650, $350 or $50 when mining companies were hardly turning a profit at $800? People on this forum have openly stated they are trading this advice too!!

Now I don't necessarily subscriber to the view that this actually happening, just that the idea is clearly not laughable. Many companies do this, from PR, Advertizing and hedge funds, on the basis that forums post have influence, and if i had a gold suppression agenda it is exactly what I would do.