rgleeson

Some truely great stuff posted by QBAssetManagement in this GATA dispatches post: http://www.gata.org/node/8149 http://www.gata.org/files/QBAssetManagement-12-14-2009.pdf

Came across this on my internet contraption today; a statistical analysis of Silver ETF bar list (not sure if it's been posted already). http://www.nowandfutures.com/d3/SilverETFs_1_PDF.pdf Not sure why they bother anyway, why not use the COMEX and Tokyo contract settling technique and just store ETF certificates of another firm - or is that too obviously self referential?

For any BullionVault fans out there (like me), this is their response to me asking whether it's possible for tungsten cored bars to be passed around in the "Good Delivery Circuit" and thereby me owning one. I would have thought that Central Banks were part of the good delivery circuit, but what the hell do I know... BV poo poos the whole idea anyway... Anyway FYI: Dear Bimble, Thank you for your email. As you know, we send independent assayers into the vaults every year to check all the gold bars, and they send their report to our auditors who publish it – on their website – with the full financial audit. To read the Assayer's Report http://www.albertgoodman.co.uk/bullionvault/ Last year, the assayers were 100% satisfied with every bar. They are now due to return to the vaults later this month, coinciding with our 2009 financial audit. Meanwhile, we only ever accept bars from accredited vaults and refiners, and anyone who delivered us a gold bar which later turned out to be bad would be liable for the loss. On top of that, we guarantee every gram of BullionVault gold ourselves: http://bullionvault.com/help/terms_and_con...0gold%20content With regards to the alleged tungsten fraud, such fakes could perhaps circulate outside the Good Delivery circuit. But it's unlikely that any such metal could ever make it into accredited storage. Accredited custodians only take in bars from other accredited vaults, and metal only enters the system from accredited refiners. Even when they bear the correct bar stamps, large gold bars are not usually accepted from people outside the Good Delivery circuit, which is why taking a Good Delivery bar into private possession seriously dents its value. Any potential buyer, lacking the accredited storage history which ensures integrity, would rather deal accredited metal from an accredited source. It's this warranty -- that delivery is good -- which makes the professional wholesale market cost-efficient and liquid. You can learn more about Good Delivery at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA)'s website. You'll note just how exacting the criteria for refining and assaying are: http://www.lbma.org.uk/delivery The Physical Committee's detailed work on weighing scales is also worth reviewing. Because at these tolerances, the difference in density between gold and tungsten would show in a 400-ounce bar. Their very different melting points (1064°C for gold, 3422°C for tungsten) also make the alleged fakes unlikely, as do their physical states when cooled (gold is soft, tungsten brittle). Following back along the chain of integrity – the formal history of who held the bars, when, and in which approved facility – would ultimately lead to the producing refiner, and no amount of "tungsten" fakes would be worth the law suits, let alone the loss of LBMA accreditation. As regards the rumours and stories themselves, "Impeccably reliable sources" would never tell an internet blogger that "a number of well-heeled market participants bought...gold futures on the London Bullion Market (LBMA)". Not because they wouldn't want to share such information, but for the simple reason that London dealers don't offer gold futures. Spot, forwards and options, yes. But futures, no. Nor can anyone trade gold "on" the LBMA, because it is a trade association, not an exchange or the market itself. Nor is gold dealt at the London Metals Exchange (LME) as some authors state. It offers base-metal contracts. Reliable sources of information would know this. They'd at least look it up before publishing. Kind regards, Adrian

I do, I do, and I take your point. But the probability of the price going up without meltdown, is much higher than it going up only in a meltdown. And im only thinking of cheeky punt...

Don't fancy a Leveraged Silver ETFS punt? http://www.etfsecurities.com/en/document/e...asp#information I've been eyeing it up for a while now.

Could the people who are perma long and the people who trade short or long all put there trades into http://www.tipythia.com so we can get a clear answer on winning strategies Sorry for the shameless plug (again), but this is the very purpose of the site, built with you guys in mind! Since I started reading Housepricecrash and then GEI nearly 3 years ago I've made ~140% non-leveraged GBP gain, first on just 100% long physical gold strategy, but recently (9 months) 50% in HUI gold stocks and canadian junior mining tips. Tips that I got from this forum. All this at a time when most have been losing the shirt of their back. I have you all to thank for that. But I reckon some of you who actively trade must be doing even better, so please consider sharing your trades with tiPythia!!!

Fox network interview with GATA, on the subject of gold price and its manipulation - the presenter points out that all the Gold reserve in Fort Knox (priced today and assuming it is all there) is worth less than what was given to AIG in bailout. A nice succinct point I think on the relative price of $/gold, and one I wasn't expecting from Fox. http://news.goldseek.com/GATA/1238518335.php

I look at the chart action on gold, and really - wtf? Does that look like natural market action to anyone? Are we seeing battle of the banks (central)??? http://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do

Or wait until there is brand new gold currency, then no CGT at all, since the amount of gold you own has not increased

How does a Gov make CGT in a bear market. Devalue the currency. Rage.

Rocket man http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=rzrKlEtxTx4 Edit: I retract this rocket man, my graph was on the wrong time setting

Long term manipilation of gold. http://www.sprott.com/pdf/not_free_not_fair.pdf Old report but very good.

In exchange we'll give you a U.S Government paper IOU: "I promise to pay the bearer 1 pension"

Well they could always invade Switzerland under operation 'Gold Freedom'. In the event of a confiscation order, I would rather have gold in a Swiss vault protected by Swiss law and sovereignty, than worry about a jail sentence because I have it under my mattress. People who have never broken the law should think hard about how they will really act in such an event. Did most Americans turn in thier gold; if so why? But then I'm a big BV/GM fan, I prefer the liquidity and margin they offer over coins.

Swap gold for property, lets say a house, and try the scenario again.... The government can issues a CPO (confiscation) for a house I own in UK, but they cannot do the same for a house I own in Zurich. Now, if our first assumption about I/we owning the BV gold is true, I must own the gold in Zurich under Swiss laws. That is the real question no?

Hmmm, would be interested to hear from a legal beagle about that (if we have one on the forum). If BV owned the gold then your statement would sound about right. But in this case, we would be talking about property that I own in Zurich being confiscated by a foreign government.

Should i/we be trading this then? Or is just the dog wagging the tail in anticipation of a dump?

Invisible barrier at 600Euro.

So through various posts we’ve seen news articles that both Saudi and Iran have converted reserves to gold with China rumoured to be thinking about it. What no price impact?

So if I have to find gold to settle my futures contract obligation, but can't because no one will sell me physical at all (price is too low). I can cover that contract with an ETF that is trading at the price of my futures market (which is too low). Did I get that right? Price of the ETF is correlated to the spot price right, so it doesn't have a demand driven price curve like a share? Plus, the spot price is heavily influenced by the futures prices, since more paper changes hands than physical is traded. It all sounds pretty self referential to me, and that's before we talk about ETF risks. Edit: Okay, the ETF still has to expand its gold holding. But it would seem some risk is passed from the Option holder to the ETF vendor on price movement

Take advice from the Mises: http://mises.org/story/3191 Actually I disagree with Murphy in this instance, I think the way out for them is to trash the currency. Devaluation of about 60% and debt equilibrium is normalized. The trick is managing this down and not letting it cascade, which is probably what they are trying to do. Even the Queen was complaining how her Government gifted funds are 70% down in real terms.

Is anyone taking a punt on the rumoured COMEX squeeze coming this Christmas? http://www.minyanville.com/articles/gold-l...x/index/a/19867

As I said, I don't necessarily subscribe to it. But I think a serious discussion has value, and warrants more debate than mocking. It’s certainly as relevant to the gold market as TA. We live in times when market manipulation is common place, from currency intervention, stock market plunge protection or trading suspension, New Bretton Woods, short suspension, and corporate acquisitions through futures. In such times GATA's argument is persuasive: do you think gold is the only market excluded from Government meddling?

Edit: I might add that If had other gold agendas I would do it too, eh GF/CG?

I don't find it laughable; The U.S Government hires people (or has suggested) to do just that on others subjects, such as Iraq. http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/03/report-recruit.html U.S Fed researches TA(why?): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis I mean, how anyone can really predict a gold price of $650, $350 or $50 when mining companies were hardly turning a profit at $800? People on this forum have openly stated they are trading this advice too!! Now I don't necessarily subscriber to the view that this actually happening, just that the idea is clearly not laughable. Many companies do this, from PR, Advertizing and hedge funds, on the basis that forums post have influence, and if i had a gold suppression agenda it is exactly what I would do.