grumpy-old-man

The last thing the people running the world need right now is high oil prices.

that depends on what you think their agenda is, we think entirely differently on this iirc.

 

People dont need to use oil like they have been using it. Wood pellets or geothermal for heating is fairly common these days

 

Anyway there is a recession and repayment of debt. Teenagers wont be running around in circles and dad wont lend the car with petrol in it.

 

Meanwhile the indebted oil rich countries have to pump regardless of the price and there is a surplus of oil

we get to find out this year then don't we.

don't forget we only need one 'event' or 'shock' & oil will spike

edited - I agree with what you said though in your statement, but it's the 'event' that will dictate the price of oil, not the things you mention above.

Oil almost into the 60's.

 

50's and below here we come i think

oil will be $150 - $200 p/b by middle/end 2010 imo

this is the short deflationary part of the current biflationary period

I watched a youtube video (can't remember what it was called or where I got the link from) about a reporter trying to sell to anyone on the street a 1oz Canadian Maple worth $1000.

 

No one would take it - not even for $20!

& if a stranger came to you in a high street & stopped you & said you can buy this £50 for £5, would you ?

& that's even when knowing/recognising the currency

of course you wouldn't & neither would I.

I notice CID are still out of 1oz Britannias. h'mmm

we get to find out soon if that Indian floor will hold:

You seem unable to understand that food is more valueable to humans than gold

I wish it was that simple tbh.

power & greed control humans not food.

edit - let's move this to another thread of your choice (or start one) because it's off topic. My last words to you & msparks.

It is pretty obvious the Feds can trade on the knowledge they have by being the markets biggests players. Pretty obvious that the largest speculative positions they dont like can be targetted and destroyed. On the other hand if there are many smaller players all moving with the market there is not so much they can do.

 

If the potato harvest fails the feds cannot so easily drive down the price of potatos unless there are already large stock piles of potatos.

 

Gold seems an easy target because so much is stockpiled doing nothing at all while not much is consumed or needed.

they have 2 options wrt the bolded bit A&L.

option 1 is buy & hold the thing they say they don't have (so watch what they do rather than what they say springs to mind)

option 2 initiate new legislative laws making the owning of a commodity illegal or impose a huge tax levy against it, thus kill that particular market dead in it's tracks.

Just look at this article from Bernanke in 2002:

"Although a policy of intervening to affect the exchange value of the dollar is nowhere on the horizon today, it's worth noting that there have been times when exchange rate policy has been an effective weapon against deflation. A striking example from U.S. history is Franklin Roosevelt's 40 percent devaluation of the dollar against gold in 1933-34, enforced by a program of gold purchases and domestic money creation. The devaluation and the rapid increase in money supply it permitted ended the U.S. deflation remarkably quickly. Indeed, consumer price inflation in the United States, year on year, went from -10.3 percent in 1932 to -5.1 percent in 1933 to 3.4 percent in 1934.17 The economy grew strongly, and by the way, 1934 was one of the best years of the century for the stock market."

remember they plan years in advance.

I see the FED announcing a new huge QE package & buying a massive amount of gold (or perhaps they already have been buying)

or option 2 which let's hope they don't go down that route. I don't think they will go the confiscation route becuase they don't have public oipinion now, however they do have the necessary police state controls in place.

I must admit though the Rothschilds exiting the gold market in 2004 iirc was a planned move imo, so perhaps it will be the confiscation route.......h'mmmm

Did you know that the Rothschilds have been in the gold market since 1810...

food for thought ??

in http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=2350011

you said:

 

 

Market rigging is where you can set the price to what you would like, no-one can do this, the market is bigger than any one institution, a price requires at least two agents.

 

What your "Legatus" and others can do is get information before anyone else, and use this information to see what the market will price at once it gets this information.

 

The difference is acute.

well we will have to agree to differ then. edit - also, 'market rigging' were not my words, but Reinhardt's, I was quoting him but I do agree with him.

I am of the belief that one multi-country organisation does exist & is so big & powerful that it creates & runs the agenda for the whole westernised market.

Once you understand & can interpret the top level agenda the rest just starts falling into place. This is done by watching MSM, world government (especially the US though ) politcal statements & policy creation, financial institutions holdings, governing world bodies, IMF, WHO et al & the many websites that capture all this data.

edit - let's leave this one here though as I don't want to take the gold thread off track .(bearing in mind yesterdays postings). These will have to be my last words on this matter msparks but perhaps we can discuss on another thread sometime.

delayed because the FED started paying interest on reserves - therefore banks are not lending out the new money. Bit of a catch 22 situation though as the FED needs to continue to offer a higher return than banks can get elsewhere - could end up in a bit of a death spiral

 

we shall see

the important word you used there was 'delayed' but you didn't highlight the rest of that line in commodities.

I think this super spike in certain commodities will definetly happen. We are already seeing a spike (note not 'super') in a lot of commodities generally across the board aren't we ?

but yes, you are right as in 'we shall see'.....

so when will the FED announce more QE & start buying physical gold then ?

or would it be just a lot easier to mimic history & just confiscate it through new laws ? (don't quote me on the date pedants, it's not that important in the context of the post)

h'mmm......

what was that event list that cgnao put forward as to what would transpire (notice the underlining )

cgnao from June 2008

"ZCZC CGNAOGLD2 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN

MAJOR DERIVATIVE MELTDOWN ALERT

NWS TPC/CGNAO

SUN JUN 08 21:26:46 UTC 2008

...BOND INSURERS DOWNGRADES TRIGGERING A FRESH

COLOSSAL WAVE OF DERIVATIVE LOSSES

...UNPRECEDENTED CREDIT MARKET PROBLEMS AT LEAST

ONE ORDER OF MAGNITUDE LARGER THAN AT THE HEIGHT

OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION

...MONETARY SYSTEM ONE STEP AWAY FROM TOTAL COLLAPSE

DERIVATIVE LOSSES SURGE, DESPITE MASSIVE INJECTIONS

OF EMERGENCY FUNDS WORTH HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS,

A GIANT $150BN US ECONOMIC STIMULUS PACKAGE AND WHOLESALE

REWRITING OF RULES TO ALLOW COMMERCIAL BANKS TO PLEDGE

RISKY ASSETS TO SECURE HIGH QUALITY CENTRAL BANK FUNDS.

SO FAR CENTRAL BANKS HAVE ONLY BEEN PREPARED TO LEND GOVERNMENT

SECURITIES AGAINST PLUMMETING MORTGAGE ASSETS, BUT THE SITUATION

IS EXPECTED TO GROW EXPLOSIVE IN THE COMING WEEKS.

AS MAJOR BANKS, INSURERS AND OTHER FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

AROUND THE WORLD ARE HIT BY SPIRALLING DERIVATIVE LOSSES AND

COLLAPSING COLLATERAL VALUATIONS, CENTRAL BANKS WILL RUN OUT

OF HIGH QUALITY GOVERNMENT SECURITIES.

AT THAT POINT THE NEXT DESPERATE MOVES OF WESTERN GOVERNMENTS

AND CENTRAL BANKS ARE EXPECTED TO BE

1) A COLOSSAL BAILOUT SCHEME FOR LARGE SCALE OUTRIGHT PURCHASES

OF MORTGAGE SECURITIES, FUNDED BY STRAIGHTFORWARD CREATION OF

CURRENCY WHICH WILL IGNITE A DEADLY HYPERINFLATIONARY PRICE SPIRAL

IN VIRTUALLY EVERY COMMODITY ON THE PLANET AND SKYROCKETING LONG

TERM BOND YIELDS WHICH WILL FURTHER COMPOUND DERIVATIVE LOSSES

WORLDWIDE.

2) DRACONIAN CAPITAL AND EXCHANGE CONTROLS

3) CONFISCATION OF PRECIOUS METALS

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT FINANCIAL HOLDINGS OF ANY KIND, BUT IN

PARTICULAR GOLD AND SILVER BULLION, BY MOVING THEM AWAY FROM

THE USA, UK AND THE EURO AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION

AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. "

Its not "market rigging"

Its insider trading

 

Same applies to Central Banks/IMF/World Bank/Private Banks etc - in fact any organisation that has first dibs access to information.

I don't understand why you are trying to explain the term 'Insider Trading' to me, & comparing it to the term 'market rigging' ?? bizarre... :blink:

I think some big ego's got flattened yesterday by semi-detached working class GOM.

edit - keeping on topic, I see Jim Willie posted this on the 3rd, the day before the crash started.

Not sure if anyone has posted it already, but he discusses the disconnect between the paper & physical markets. We also were discussing this in the silver thread yesterday.

"A great disconnect exists in the gold market between the exchange futures contract price (the paper price) and the gold bullion paid price for transactions (the physical price). The differential in price is growing wider, enough to place tremendous pressure on the gold market itself. Look not to the gold premium paid for purchases, but to high volume purchases in the tens of million$. In mid-December, almost every demand for gold contract delivery was matched by a cash delivery, complete with 25% bonus premium offered. The officials even produced a new ledger item called 'Cash For Delivery' that was necessary to balance their badgered books. It prompted little attention. Some call it a basic bribe. Others call it a technical default.

Fast approaching is the event of GAME OVER for London, a condition that has already reached critical level, according to a key reliable source of information with London connections and direct experience with its market events. How long can a major metals exchange sell contracts but have miniscule supply of gold in their vaulted possession? The paper gold market and the physical gold bullion market have finally separated in a practical manner, meaning actual gold has almost no role anymore in London paper contract settlement. The absence of gold in London requires extraordinary tactics to settle contracts and to obtain gold bullion. Red tape procedures delay delivery for individuals, and bribes accompany gold delivery demands as standard practice. The London Bullion Market Assn has almost zero gold, its supply having been drained in high volumes since early December, a process currently in acceleration. The opportunity to convert fiat money into precious metal at prices considered reasonable is also vanishing. The London gold banker said"

dollar index sitting at 80.......will it hold tomorrow & go up ??

people just don't know where to put that fiat.

gold & silver would be good for them right now but they probably don't realise it.

I wonder what happens when China wakes up......surely they will step in properly very soon.....

what a weekend this will be, I wouldn't like to be holding ANY paper ANYTHING personally. :o

we all had enough warnings from cgnao

It's not a matter of what you want, it's a matter of what I think is appropriate.

 

Wottwotril has been naughty over the past couple of days. Others have been naughty too, especially on the naughty thread, but I have to make a start somewhere. Catflap better also keeps it a little bit down for the rest of tonight, and you GOM please also behave and don't try to summon the ghost of Swampy. And let's not hope fitkid comes in and posts 5 images that carry secret or not so secret messages.

 

OK, so now back to gold. I sense that some people hurt today? I couldn't care less about this move. I am only annoyed that I cannot buy as I would like to right now. People who have invested larger sums in gold have to get used to the fact that their 'investment' can go up or down multiples of their monthly income within a few hours. If you have done your research you know this. The fundamentals are unchanged. Nothing of any relevance happened today in my opinion. Yes, the pressure on Greece increased, but so what? We know that the Euro has its problems, but that does not mean that those of the USD will go away. These currencies are all swirling in a bowl, waiting to get flushed down to the next level. Gold is your lifeboat.

ok fair points.

I think 'Gumbo' is something to eat, but I sense it is used derogatory/in a provocative way. I have disabled your posting ability for one day.

I have no problem GF with that name tbh & would prefer you not to suspend him. All is fair in love & war.

The naughty thread is open again. Please do your mud slinging on here.

thanks but I have said all I need to say on this matter.

I sense something bad, but I don't have time for this cr@p at the moment. I just try to do some reading here to relax a little before I put in another 2h for my work.

you have my word GF that I won't make another off topic post on this matter.

Because he's an immature t*sser who's sent me a personal message today so I can take his troll bait - give him some abuse so he can then complian to the moderators that I used bad language and I get banned. Typical troll tactics, but note the use of asterisks - you read what you want to read.

 

Basically it's another round of sh*t stirring by GEI's favourite sh*t stirrer - he does'nt give a damn what it does to your gold thread, he's out to point score, disrupt the forum and drive away quality posters from GEI as you can see.

 

Think of who you havn't seen on GEI for a while and wonder why?

 

Remind yourself what the forum used to be like and why you first came here.

 

If I get a ban from one of the mods then that's the end of my relationship with GEI as far as I am concerned - I'll be moving on rather than staying here trying to help make the site better.

oh, forgot to ask you, what did you think of my prediction ?

Because he's an immature t*sser who's sent me a personal message today so I can take his troll bait - give him some abuse so he can then complian to the moderators that I used bad language and I get banned. Typical troll tactics, but note the use of asterisks - you read what you want to read.

 

Basically it's another round of sh*t stirring by GEI's favourite sh*t stirrer - he does'nt give a damn what it does to your gold thread, he's out to point score, disrupt the forum and drive away quality posters from GEI as you can see.

 

Think of who you havn't seen on GEI for a while and wonder why?

 

Remind yourself what the forum used to be like and why you first came here.

 

If I get a ban from one of the mods then that's the end of my relationship with GEI as far as I am concerned - I'll be moving on rather than staying here trying to help make the site better.

I have never complained to any mod....ever.

I sent you a link to my post in case you missed it. Nothing else was in that post, please feel free to repost it, you have my permission.

How's your trades going btw ?

Know it's off gold thread but, just spotted Mr Bush attending to receive his award.

some say their is a elitist fight being fought right now between the christians & jews financiers for the 'end game' that is being planned/played out......Legatus is the christian side of things btw.

Man of the Year for Bernanke (or whatever the award was )

Know it's off gold thread but, just spotted Mr Bush attending to receive his award.

Nobel Peace for O'Bombya

Man of the Year for Bernanke (or whatever the award was )

Legatus award for Bush.

you see what us contrarian conspiracy posters mean now (not you rigger)

what will little timmy get though?

You're suggesting the joining fees are an investment. If the information is so trustworthy, why don't you trade an ounce of gold and see how many ounces you can turn it in to? I would be interested in your progress.

I am thinking about possibly joining later in the year, swampy offered to go in with me (although he's doing me a favour really with his knowledge level)

I reckon though that the next year or 2 will probably be the most difficult years to trade for the next few decades, so probably not the best time to risk take, even if they are calculated.

Perhaps I use that as a stepping stone to see what happens, then look to make some cash after 2011 ??

the problem is I don't want to be glued to a computer screen for 24/7.......much like I am now....hang on a mo.....

I really enjoy the geo-politics & history immensely, you learn so much, especially from the history side of things.

Goad, why?

it was actually mainly for flatcap & havilark as they said I was stoopid is as stoopid does.

so I have reacted very childishly by showing them that life is like a box of chocolates, the only difference is I did know which ones were soft.

point made very well I thought.

however I fear I will come undone with my 'gold will finish Feb high after this crash, with new highs every week' post.

edited

Oh no the quartet has dispanded wot wot has gone solo.

They will never sound the same again.

edited as it was a childish reply.