TW11

<said in a Swiss accent>, "they (he) will print and print and print".

I am thinking an Asian bolthole might be a good idea....

What do you reckon to this then, guys? JP Morgan admits defeat

Gotta laugh, there was an RB contra-indicator a few days ago on HPC.

Never fails. We really ought to give him some sort of commission

My copper short more than doing it's job. Was looking for a target for the dollar index but I think that's all out the window now.

I'm in this position as well. Oct. 2008 is vivid in my memory.

Hehe, I dodged Oct '08 but only because the correction back in '06 taught me a very very painful lesson - in an astonishingly short space of time

Back then you could read smug comments on various blogs about how it was a lesson that you had to pay for and that you would learn from it. It irritated the hell out of me at the time, but I have to admit that it is true.

I am very philosophical about it now. I think that if you are going to buy gold stocks then I think you have to do some basic TA* - I don't want to admit that it works but...... well, it does.

*and I admit that my TA is embarrassingly simple but it works.

It's starting to feel like we're approaching an intermediate top here. Sentiment is becoming a little frothy again and I'll sell a significant portion if we blow off to anywhere near $1220.

I think the problem is that to buy/sell anything just now you have to take a view on the general equity market. Of all the market commentators and blogs I follow it is hard to find a bearish commentator - even the voiciferous bears from a few months back have gone quiet. This rally has been astonishing in its strength. When I look at the gold and USDX charts then I'd be happy long gold at this point. I think there's some resistance on USDX up around 83 ish (fib retrace) maybe the old support at 82.6 will become resistant. But all that goes out the window if equities head south again.

Having said all that it maybe classic wall-of-worry stuff. I am pretty good at catching bottoms but I am absolutely hopeless at selling tops - I always sell too soon. And I am also hopeless with currencies...

I'm less inclined now to try and get clever with all this. I wish I had GF's resolve and certainty, at some point the rule book will get torn up.

So you're concerned about losing your position if you take profits. But also perhaps concerned that gold equities might get hammered with all equities at some point. Would selling some of your gold equity for gold bullion put you back in the comfort zone? If there was a general market sell-off, gold bullion prices should hold up better than equities.

 

I am only invested in gold bullion [liquid in both gold and dollars] at the moment for that very reason.

Yep, I think if equities go then gold stocks will go with them. Maybe one day they will de-couple, but for now I think the relationship will remain. I am reliant on my small short to protect from this.

I have to admit that it's not my style and I don't like to change what has been a hugely successful strategy over the last five years.

I'm not keen on bullion. I prefer the more turbo charged returns on the stocks plus I can use stops and be out quickly. It just works for me.

Gold is a bit difficult for me at the moment. I'm sitting on a good profit with my gold stocks - the sort of profit I always took in recent years.

But for the first time in five years I'm not keen to sell. I'm worried I might not get back in again. I see the SPX 61.8% retrace for this rally is bang ahead (@ around 1228 I think) and with all the sovereign debt crises I think that that if it goes then everything will get clobbered again.

I stuck a small copper short on last week and took profit from almost all my oils. I'm happy to gain on the swings and lose on the roundabouts for a while in order to protect the gold position. Not really comfortable with any of this at the moment.

Don't want to sidetrack the gold thread, but does anyone know if Prechter fully discounted money printing in his work?

So many doomsters on this thread. I'm just looking for a good old-fashioned depression... not the end of the world.

Some of the scenarios people are preparing themselves for aren't once in a hundred year events, they are The Big One - and I mean beyond the Great Depression. Statistically it is possible, but given the chances...well it's not a trade I'd be interested in.

You might as well position yourself to profit from the arrival of ET. Great if ET does show up, but given the chances of it, I wouldn't be holding my breath...

Gold right now is just protection from the devaluation of cash. Nothing more.

Faber's latest media appearance... We have a new gold standard

Ok, an emotive link title, it was only a soundbite. But it is his clarity of thought that I like. He keeps it simple and I think the simple answers are usually the best.

All currencies are crap.

<link doesn't work for me in Firefox, but is ok in IE>

This is great from Faber, not just on gold.

I find his media appearances can be too brief, it's good when he gets longer to discuss things.

Faber March 10th

Could get interesting here

Gold COT looking a little better for the bulls. Euro should catch a short term bounce around here too.

Off work today, lots of time to catch up with things - it's all deeply bearish for everything. I suspect there's money to be made for the really nimble. I'm coming round to the idea of the 'All Currencies Are Crap' trade. Bought some gold stocks...haven't bought any for six months. Not massively comfortable cos I am worried about overall market weakness - but that nervousness makes me think there must be a bottom somewhere around here, we'll see...

Edit: I see good support around 1050 and the 200dma is showing at 1022 tonight, should be ok but doesn't work if the EU (Greece et al) blows up over the weekend.

I haven't bought gold at all this year, but I'm looking at this dip and am thinking of a small speculative punt on some miners again. It's not the time of year for it and a stocks sell-off will probably clobber it.... but...

I was looking at This

Looking at it tonight I can see is that it had roughly a 2.5% spread today (it's thinly traded). But I could probably just about live with that.

ETF's arent my normal style but it seems a good way of getting exposure to some of the large producers. Most of them look like unhedged HUI constituents.

Someone tell me the catch.

The miners have been a bit sticky on the upside of recent - particularly given the gains.

 

Do people here use the miners much to gauge the strength of moves in bullion?

I've been trading the gold miners since 2005 and I think they normally are a good leading indicator. I'm completely out of my mining stocks just now. One day it won't work of course. It will be the day it goes parabolic and you just won't get a dip to buy back in on...

But I got caught up in the '06 correction and learnt the hard way - I'm not doing that again.

Lets face it, the US is going to try and inflate the debt away. I assume that the recent dollar rally has more to do with the forthcoming election and investors running to cash. I'm guessing the dollar declines again soon. The weekly chart shows the dollar index hitting some resistance on the 200MA.

I'm even thinking oil would be the ultimate contrarian play just now.

Just seen

Russ Winter is suggesting the oil price has been manipulated.

First go to this Raymond James site. You will need to hit DOE Petroleum Inventory Update. You will then see that total petroleum inventory is running quite high. In fact it has risen for seven straight weeks during a period when normally it declines. Next go to Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and you will see that number is down substantially from last year. I'm not saying that's a bad policy, given the minor Bubble in oil prices at $75, but it clearly is a rob Peter, to pay Paul factor in the inventory picture. And do you think Iranian intelligence watches the SPR as an indicator of US seriousness and intentions? Next look at imports, and you will see that the US has effectively imported in a good chunk of the world's inventory. Don't think so? Well, next go to RJ, energy stat of the week, and hit Sept. 5. The last chart shows worldwide inventory measured in days of demand. Also consider this event, China is now ready to start filling it's own 200 million barrel SPR, and they will be price conscious about it, they've said as much. Now connect the dots, and considering the US has very high inventories (and uses 25% of world oil consumption), what's the picture elsewhere (75% of consumption)? Obviously exceedingly low.

Link: Click

Brief comments from US energy secretary Sam Bodman: Link