Catflap

Patently not true. Gold and the broad markets rose together 2003 - 2008. I think that proves that gold's price action cannot be summed up as simplistically as that.

That depends if your simply measuring the stockmarket by it's price or it's earnings and yield - US and UK stocks have been falling in value since the bursting of the dot.com bubble where p/e ratio's were at a peak. On this measure, the real value of stocks has been falling from 2000 to 2009 as gold has been rising but we got to a point where stockmarket valuations got far too low in the crash just like 1974 - the markets were pricing in another Great Depression in a panic sell-off where everything of value was liquidated regardless of fundamentals, gold included through the paper markets.

If we now go back to the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009 then on a p/e ratio stocks had a significant low and had been oversold - eg. UK stockmarket was trading on a p/e ratio of 6.8 on 6 March 2009 the day before this rally started - even China was 8.9 which was incredibly cheap considering it had been over 25 in 2007. You would expect to get these kinds of valuations at the end of a secular bear market in stocks/bull market in commodities.

The problem now is that stocks have likely entered another bull market as they did in late 2002/early 2003 which I think could last until the end of the year or beginning of next year but with gold 3 times the price it was back then. Some stockmarkets like China's could go back to their 2007 highs by the beginning of 2010 but even if they did that, they would probably be on a lower p/e to what they were in 2007. The final p/e low for stockmarkets is likely to be towards the end of the next decade a couple of years or so after the gold price peak where stocks will be a screaming buy - that will be the end of the commodity cycle and the equivalent point to August 1982.

Maybe there is a graph somewhere that can compare the stockmarket in terms of it's earnings to the POG?

The Dow chart "bears" posting.

 

 

What do you think will happen to the price of gold when the Dow tests new lows? Hint.... the smiley is giving the wrong hint.

OK - first the graph. I think it's wrong to compare 1929 where the stockmarket was at it p/e peak with 2007 where it wasn't. If you want to compare the 1929 to 1932 Dow with anything then compare it with something like the 2000 to 2002 Nasdaq which had a 77% fall over a similar period of time or the Nikkei from 1989 to 1992, a similar period of time also. Those were p/e peaks of excessive overvaluation and interestingly, those 3 biggest crashes have all started at the end of a '9' year or beginning of a '0' year - I've often thought that the dot.com bubble should have burst in late 1999 but the significance of a new milenium probably carried it through to 2000.

So you are saying that most here are expecting a correction in equities and a rally in gold while the contrarian is expecting the opposite, a correction in gold and a rally in the equities.

Yes - too much bullishness on gold and too much bearishness on equities despite bullish indicators.

There is a third option, perhaps the contrarian's contrarian, that both gold and equities correct. The rationale for this is that we may be due shortly for another round of deleveraging/ forced liquidation. I think the above chart comparing the present Dow with the past is quite compelling. As others have observed, I doubt gold will go as low as the last correction as there are many smart money lining up to buy which would act to counter too large a sell-off.

Does'nt seem likely to me at the moment, but if we go back to the previous highs with all this stimulus money and 0%/0.5% interest rates then we could get back to the previous highs (like in 1976) from where the problems resume. I can't see why equities would correct anymore from here - yields are high so why sell when interest rates are so low?

I think it will be unlikely to see gold correct while equities continue to rally. They should both continue to be the beneficiaries of inflation fear as long as investor perceptions remain fixed on Bernanke's money supply. The Dow and gold may well continue to rally together before they then correct together, which should come on the back of some economic news or event sparking a deflation scare.

 

Gold would afterwards bounce back to a higher high as it is further monetized [bought as a currency] and be in stronger hands. The Dow should continue down to lower lows.

It happened in December 1974 to August 1976 - why should it been any different now?. Gold tends to go up if stocks are going down and visa versa. Talking about inflation, what inflation?!..... that could be years away. Yes, there could be high inflation or even hyperinflation in the future if things get really bad but that's a long long way off. We are getting a small amount of deflation at the moment which will gradually turn back to low inflation but we are a long way off even getting back to even 80's or 90's style inflation let alone 70's or hyperinflation.

Before we can get high inflation the banks have to be repaired and acting normally again - as I see it, all this money that is being created to support the banks isn't going to come flooding out in a hurry just yet. Remember that gold isn't a hedge against inflation like many say it is but is a form of insurance against corrupt government and the worst economic conditions - investors will always put their money where they can make the best return, even if that means dumping gold in the short-term.

I am not one for posting overtly positive articles on gold with little analysis (aka 'ramping') but a paragraph from this one caught my eye:

 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article10711.html

 

I am very positive on the precious metals complex. However, the worst possible approach for anyone is to be overcommitted and borrow money to leverage their position. If you do that you are almost guaranteed that you will sell when the first or second violent shakeout occurs. Be assured that a parabolic rise will have violent shakeouts. The best pros, the big talkers, the wonder boys, the super duper traders down to the last person all can be shaken out by violent corrections when they are over committed. They are often overcommitted. That is what causes the violent fluctuations! Do not play their game.

 

A modest commitment will be in a position to make a small fortune. I do not recommend “going for broke.” There is no need to do so. Those who go for broke usually succeed - at going broke.

 

--------------/----------

 

 

 

funny thing is I have (coughs) taken out a loan to do the very thing the author warns against; not on a dangerous scale you understand, but nevertheless I am strongly considering going leveraged

I think this article is actually a warning of what could happen next with gold based on where the stockmarekts are at, although the author doesn't want to tell you anymore unless you pay a subscription.

This is a fascinating concept, but how can it help us determine if the bear market in the stock averages is complete or ongoing? We can not see the future or predict it with certainty. We have the past and the present and that is all we have that is visible to us. So, let’s take a look at the past and compare it to the present.

 

The last major bear market in the D. J. I. A. bottomed in December 1974 at 577.00. The previous bull market top in 1966 was 1000.00. Over an eight year period the Dow lost 42.3%.

 

The recent bull market in the D. J. I. A. topped in January 2000 at 11,840.00. The bottom in March of 2009 was 6,460.00. Over a nine year period the Dow lost 45.5 %.

 

The bear market of 1966 to 1974 lasted 8 years.

The bear market of 1966 to 1974 lost 42.3 %.

 

The bear market of 2000 to 2009 lasted 9 years.

The bear market of 2000 to 2009 lost 45.5%.

 

Both bear markets compare favorably as to time consumed and percentage of price lost. Does this mean that the current bear market bottomed in March 2009?

I've done a lot of work on this myself and know what he's getting at, although he refuses to spell it out directly he's basically saying that if you are overcommitted, leveraged or have all your eggs in the gold basket you may be in for a rough ride from here. That's why he is quoting the stockmarkets, because in in terms of duration and falls we are at a similar point to early 1975 from where gold made a big correction (although it was more overvalued back then in relation to peoples earnings at that point than is the case today)

Given there is so much bullishness on gold and still much bearishness on equities, the contrarian would be betting the other way - ie. a big rally in equities and a decent (large?) correction in gold. The correction in gold in the mid-70's would have had many on here heading for the exits and feeling very depressed which is why the author of this article is saying 'be careful here'. Not many people saw the large crash in stockmarkets and commodities coming and everyone (myself included) was bullish on commodities for the future.

We have additional evidence that may help us determine whether or not the bear market has ended. The evidence takes the form of patterns and time consumed by these patterns. For a number of years I have been writing about the different corrective patterns in the S & P 500 and the D. J. I. A. First let’s review the patterns and then see if they are complete. They are known market corrective patterns that have occurred in the past. What is interesting is that once these patterns have completed their corrective work a powerful bull market is called for.

I've been doing exactly the same thing and also believe a bull market is already underway in equities for the same reasons - people will keep calling this a bear market rally all the way to the top when in fact it is a short cyclical bull market in a long (17 to 20 year) secular bear market that will not end until p/e ratio's are at their lowest towards the end of the next decade.

Gold investment has more room for growth

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/preci...Money%2BMorning

Useful charts of gold in GBP going back to 1973:

http://goldprice.org/gold-price-uk.html

Surely seasonal patterns should be thrown out the window with what is going on this year. Never before has there been so much QE in effect.

 

I think gold is just about to be breaking out above a $1000, the next few weeks is your last chance to buy below £1000 I believe.

Doesn't make any difference as I see it, markets are irrational a lot of the time - inflation lags the increase in money supply so it may not show up for at least another year, maybe longer. Most people (and some traders) don't know about the potential gold bull that is set to last several more years, they have no idea of cycles just what they see on a day-to-day basis - I know it, you know it but the masses that drive the market to the new highs don't know what's going to happen until much later (just like house prices....)

For gold to go much higher than £1,000 there needs to be more buyers coming into the market and those are likely to be new investors, like some people reading this thread perhaps who are educating themselves but have no gold positions yet. Without more demand then prices cannot go any higher than they are and that new demand I think needs to come about when less savy investors can actually see inflation going up - just like house prices, when prices start to move up more and more people take notice until you get to the mania phase, the best part.... for us

Look at the inflation stats below and remember what happened to the POG from December 1974 to August 1976:

http://swanlowpark.co.uk/rpiannual.jsp

We've not got anything like this at present - if you inflation adjusted the 42% nominal fall in gold prices in the above period I would hate to think what in comes to in real terms.... so far gold is holding up despite the SM rally which is good but I really can't see it going higher if the SM does what it did from December 1974. Gold up, stocks down, gold down, stocks up - that's how it seems to go. Hopefully really good buying opportunities ahead if enough people pile back into the SM and take it back near to it's 2007 highs (could happen!).

Found this which was a fit of fun as well:

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/education/i...eline/chart.htm

P&F chart also has a bullish price objective of 112:

 

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?...,P&listNum=

That just changed within the last couple of hours!!

P&F chart now has a preliminary bearish price objective of 77 for the dollar - perhaps gold is going higher for a while yet.

More gold ramping!

Gold’s Percentage Rise in the Last Bull Market. What if gold in this bull market repeats the percentage rise in the last bull market? In the 1970s gold rose from $35 to $850, a factor of 24.28. Our low in 2001 was $255.95. Multiply that by 24.28 and you get a gold price of $6,214 per ounce.

Hmm - that was when it was cut loose from it's fixed rate to where it spiked for just one day in January 1980 - the average gold price for January 1980 was $675.

I'm not a fan of Jim Rogers and I'm still expecting a significant gold correction if equities have a monster bear market rally (cyclical bull) which lasts until the end of the year or early next year back to the previous highs. Yes, I know everyone is going to think I'm crazy and nearly everyone probably thought this was a crazy idea at the beginning of 1975. If anything this seems more likely to happen today as inflation is low and interest rates are low - the final leg of the of the equity bear market will have to begin at some later point and that's where I see gold taking off again.

Gold not far off entering it's summer doldrums and dollar index looking very oversold on daily and weekly charts:

Dollar Index (daily)

Dollar Index (weekly)

P&F chart also has a bullish price objective of 112:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?...,P&listNum=

I don't know if gold will go much higher if the dollar starts strengthening - seasonals in USDX says that it should get stronger from here.

You're saying:

 

1. Buy a house using fiat at some time.

2. Later sell your gold (or some) and use the money to pay off any mortgage.

 

I hope that's right.

Interesting idea

Yep, correct - whatever you do buy the house at the bottom even if the average house is still above 100oz gold, but put as little money down as you can as the last leg of the gold bull coud see house prices and gold rise together (as they did in early '77 to late '79) and peak about the same time.

Is see the rent vs. interest payments as good for the owner occupier but I suspect the deposit will still need to be rather large even at the bottom.

I agree, a large deposit would still be needed so this argument maybe doesn't work as well for those that are 100% invested in PM's - for those that hold some cash or can get help with a deposit then it still works. I just don't think I would like to risk missing the bottom of the housing market when it came because the average house was still more than 100oz - we all hope it will go well below this but you can never tell what will happen in the future because of what has happened in the past.

I'm sure most of us ultimately want to buy a house when they are at rock bottom so we can get on with our lives - postponing the purchase of a house for another 2.5 to 3 years past the bottom in the market because 'UK House Prices in Gold' have not reached their lowest point probably isn't the wisest move. There's going to be the uncertainty of how much further gold prices will rise, trying to time the top and buying into a housing market that could also be at a short-term peak like in late '79. Ultimately, I think the stratergy I outlined may prove better financially, less risky as well being a lot less stressful!

Interesting stuff. How does this plan look if you factor in the interest payments? As I recall IRs were high back then.

Not sure - it could work differently this time, but I would expect there to be a corresponding rise in house prices along with gold if they reach a bottom sometime between late 2011 and late 2012 and there is significant inflation. The pattern of a mini-boom like this could occur again where house prices peak at around the time that gold makes it's peak in 2014/2015? - the point I was trying to make is that you might not even need that much gold to buy the average house outright, so long as you buy the house at the bottom of the market with mininal money down and hold onto your gold positions.

Obviously you still have to make the interest payments, but if you've bought near the bottom then it's likely that this is going to cost the same or less than the cost of renting anyway so it's still a winner. Any spare money could then be invested in the stockmarket at around 2017/2018 which would likely be the absolute low point in price earnings valuations from where a new 17/18 year secular bull market in stocks might begin.

http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/UK_H...es_in_Gold.html

Something I've been meaning to analyse is a UK House Price in Gold 'Offest' - the idea here is that you buy your house at the absolute bottom using the smallest deposit possible and hang on to your gold positions as both houses and gold rise in value.

Let's look at what happened last time when gold was in a bull market:

Gold averaged $675 in January 1980 when gold hit it's 1-day peak of $850 - converting this 'achievable' average gold price of $675 in January 1980 back into pounds using the following tables found below:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/EXUSUK.txt

This gives an exchange rate of 2.2641 for that month which gave an achievable gold price of £298 for those in the UK in January 1980.

The Nationwide data says that the average UK house price in Q1 1980 was £22,677

(House prices again peaked at around the time that gold peaked after a mini-boom that started in Q2 1977 - this is what you see on the Natiowide graph and it came after the 1973 peak in house prices due to to negative real interest rates and was followed by another recession in 1981)

So to recap, back in January 1980:

Average house price was £22,677

Average gold price was £298

That means that the average house was 76.1oz of gold.

Here's the interesting bit

Had you bought where the average house was 76.1oz of gold, you would have been buying around the peak of the housing market

The late 70's mini-boom in house prices ended with a peak in Q4 1979 (just before gold peaked in January 1980) and prices fell in real terms for nearly 3 years until another bottom in Q2 1982.

The bottom of the housing market after the 1973 crash came in Q2 1977 where the average house was £12,689 - offsetting this house price bottom with the gold price peak just 2.5 years later in January 1980 would have meant the average house was only 42.6oz of gold.

As an example, lets say house prices bottom in real terms in Q2 2012 (could be even longer) and gold peaks about 2.5 years later in Q4 2014 - the best stratergy is to buy your house as near to the bottom as possible (as in Q2 1977, Q2 1982* and Q4 1995*) with the least money down if we've got decent inflation and hang on to as many gold positions as you can until the peak.

That might be when interest rates start rising and the housing market begins stalling once again - 2014 is just a projection I have but no-one knows how bad this is all going to get and how much inflation will be created. But buying a house as near to the bottom as you can has got to be the best thing you can do - no point waiting for gold to hit a peak before you buy as that will likely be a peak in housing as well!.

Catflap

(* at the 1982 and 1995 lows you would have put the least money down on a house and everything else into the stockmarket)

You of all should like this as highlights Gord's (EDIT stoopidity) in the table for one....then again it might also make you angry.

Pathetic - I don't know why he just didn't sell the lot and have done with it. Switzerland has a population of only 7.6 million so that is impressive.

Platinum, palladium trade with base metals in that they are industrial metals

I'm not so sure - I think they are both and investors will buy them if gold 'looks' expensive in comparison.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$PLA...id=p99596281105

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle5704941.ece

Shortage of platinum after Japan buying spree

 

Families are rushing to invest in the metal as faith in the Government's ability to handle the economic crisis dwindles

 

Leo Lewis, Asia Business Correspondent

 

 

Tokyo bullion dealers are reporting an unprecedented drought of platinum ingots and coins, blaming the economic downturn and dwindling faith in the Government for a rush by middle-class Japanese families to buy precious metal.

 

With dealers turning away would-be platinum customers for lack of stock, retail investment interest is turning towards the even rarer Canadian Maple Leaf palladium coin.

 

Some dealers are predicting volatile palladium prices as Japanese investors compete with the car industry, palladium's main industrial buyer.

 

A government think tank is predicting that Japan's economy shrank by an annualised 10.59 per cent in the final quarter of 2008 - rather than the 5.14 per cent contraction they were predicting four weeks ago.

 

As if this was not enough for concern, there is a growing sense that the Japanese Government is not responding adequately to the economic crisis.

 

Jonathan Allum, chief Japan strategist at KBC Securities, is among a number of analysts with deep scepticism over the plans laid out by Kaoru Yosano, the Economics Minister.

 

“Some of Mr Yosano's previously expressed views do not wholly inspire confidence. This is a man who said on January 28 that a rise in the consumption tax could ‘lay the foundations for increased consumption',” he said in a note to investors yesterday.

 

Although precious metals dealers are thriving, Tiffany's said yesterday that it would cut prices in its Japanese stores by 9 per cent - a reflection of the stronger yen and dire times for the mainstream jewellery industry.

 

Platinum sales at Tanaka Kikinzoku, the largest Japanese bullion dealer, have soared by 430 per cent over the past 12 months.

 

The World Gold Council's latest figures suggest that total Japanese gold bullion sales for investment purposes soared by 61 per cent last year. Platinum is popular because the price is about 50 per cent lower than it was this time last year.

Catflap, re your moving averages; why not 50+200DMA? Your 18 and 45DMAs seem to pick bottoms quite consistently when they cross over (18DMA going below 45DMA)!!!

50+200 DMA isn't precise enough, I think the futures markets tend to use similar DMA's to what I am using. I certainly wouldn't use them for picking tops or bottoms - for that I use stochastics

Both silver and platinum look better value than gold atm:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SIL...id=p94531117998

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$PLA...id=p94531117998

Gold now looking bearish to me - head & shoulders pattern and the crossover with the moving averages:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p43996656231

I'm getting conerned that the inflation beast is already stiring with all this money printing.

http://www.forbes.com/2009/03/18/consumer-...-recession.html

CPI Rises Despite U.S. Recession

Lisa LaMotta, 03.18.09

 

Higher-than-expected increase raises questions about future inflationary pressures.

 

 

The U. S. economy continues to falter as companies cut back, countless Americans lose their jobs and the markets continue to be erratic, but somehow, consumer prices are rising.

 

The Labor Department reported Wednesday morning that the Consumer Price Index, a key indicator of inflation, rose by 0.4% in February over the prior month. Increases in energy prices were only partially offset by a drop in food costs. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected that consumer inflation would increase a bit more moderately, by 0.3% for February--matching the 0.3% rise in January. (See "CPI Inches Higher In January.")

 

Some analysts would have you believe that the slight uptick in recent months of the CPI means that America has avoided the dreaded threat of deflation, but Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital -- who has been bearish on U.S. economic prospects for years -- said he believes the increase is a sign that something worse is yet to come.

 

Schiff points back to the time of the Great Depression and asked, "How much worse would it have been if prices had been rising?" We may just find out, as the U.S. crawls deeper into one of the worst recessions in more than half a century. Schiff said temporary factors like the rising dollar have been holding inflation down, but added that the counterbalance of the government stimulus programs means inflation is going to skyrocket once the dollar loses ground -- making things like food and gas unaffordable to the average American, especially those out of work.

 

"This shows some massive inflationary pressures beneath the surface," said Schiff. "Prices should really be falling right now. That would actually be healthy. If you think about all the income people are losing -- what's happening to people's wealth, their home equity, their stock-market portfolio -- if at least this was being offset by a fall in the cost of living it wouldn't be as painful. Consumer prices are supposed to fall in correlations with a loss in income and assets. "

 

The energy component of the CPI rose by 3.3% in February, following a 1.7% pickup in the month prior, while the gasoline index rose by 8.3% last month. In contrast, the indexes for fuel oil and natural gas both declined in February and are well off their highs from last July--the gasoline index is down by 44.0% from its peak.

 

Meanwhile, the food and beverages index declined by 0.1% in February; and the food-at-home index, which includes prices for the major grocery store food groups such dairy and meat, fell by 0.4%.

I'll just add something I read on the HPC newsblog, made me laugh and made me think - 'flashman' seems like a very clued-up city trader who tells it like it is. Hope DrBubb and other EW users on here don't mind as his comments are quite cutting but he seems more than qualified to say such things:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/...ounce-22461.php

28. flashman said...techie and all Wavers: Robert Prechter (the chief waver) is quite a good analyst and his has genuine market insight. I have however often suspected that he analyses the situation then finds supposed Elliot Wave patterns that might roughly correlate to his analysis. This is a very good trick because like all good cons it adds an illusion of plausibility to the implausible.

I have read on this site that Elliot Waves work because they reflect the predictable patterns of human behaviour. Quite ingeniously, Elliot Wave theory anticipates the argument that unforeseen natural phenomena can alter human behaviour by saying that natural phenomena are usually affected by human behaviour and therefore are predictable (global warming springs to mind). The trouble is that there are always natural phenomena that can’t be caused by human behaviour (solar events that heat or cool the world, asteroid strikes, unexpected earthquakes/tsunamis, and many more mundane things). The natural phenomena (major and minor ones) that cannot be caused by human behaviour are constantly with us. They will always be entirely unpredictable and they will always alter our outcomes. The presence of these unpredictable natural phenomena, single-handedly rubbishes the workability of Elliot Wave theory. The poor record of Elliot Wave predictions does further damage. Respected randomness practitioners, mathematicians and Harvard professors alike have proven that it has no value, but its practitioners are unshakeable in their belief. I guess it’s a bit like the religious concept of faith.

 

Back in the day when “black box” trading was all the rage, all the big Wall Street firms spent countless millions on researching technical analysis. The world’s best mathematicians and computer programmers were hired and given dream budgets. Elliot wave theory was considered and tested by all of them. After years of testing, not one outfit concluded that it had any value. The general consensus was that its accuracy was no better than random, but even worse, its timing record was considerably worse than random. This is why, not one fund or professional trading floor in the world uses it. It is considered to be “a doomster’s drama novel, no more than a hobby for its practitioners”. People often point to an Elliot Wave prediction that ‘came true’. The trouble is that everyone knows that the markets go up and down, sometimes just a bit, sometimes a hell of a lot. Any fool could therefore predict a large drop in the markets and claim that when it eventually happens, he was right. While we are talking about Elliot wave predictions, here are a few howlers:-

1. “The Great Bear Market” was forecast in 1997. This was followed by a great bull market.

2. In 2003 he told investors how to handle the coming deflationary depression. In 2004 we started fighting inflation.

3. Dow would drop to 400 in 1995

4. Dow 400 in 1995

5. Dow 800 in 2002

6. Dow 1600 in 2009

Here is a real bit of Elliot Wavery:

“Today’s top was a spike, on news, so our feeling is it represented the top of wave {a} of an {a}-up- {b}-down, {c}-up move for corrective wave 2-up. This afternoon’s late decline was likely the start of wave {b}-down. The alternate is that wave 2-up topped intraday”.

And here’s a comment about the above that reflects my own views:

“It’s not that we don’t understand the individual words and phrases of this kind of commentary, or even what the author is trying to say. It's just that its completely untradeable, unverifiable, unfalsifiable hindsight-driven smoke-and-mirrors carnival gibberish”.

This is what Louis Ruykeyser said about Prechter when he came on the PBS show: “Robert Prechter, editor of the Elliott Wave Theorist, has been on several times and, during his last appearance got put in some pretty painful holds. He came on lying. He just denied the things he had said. And we had to point it out. He misunderstood and thought the program was for his own glorification."

This is course one of Prechter’s biggest problems. He is a vainglorious liar, (I realise that he did not invent Elliot wave, but he is undoubtedly its' biggest champion). None of its followers really care about this. It is their hobby. Perhaps more troubling, is the religion like hold it has on its follows. It’s a bit like the Shroud of Turin. It got categorically proven to have been a medieval fake. Somehow, this did not trouble its believer’s, one bit.

Huge 12% spike up in Randgold Resources this morning.

Stochastics breaking below 80 at exactly the same point as this time last year (mid March)

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p66370829266

I just noticed that Fresnillo PLC will be entered into the FTSE 100.

 

More here: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/03/09...ats-in-and-out/

 

This has got to be good news for Physical Silver, no?

 

I am 100% out of shares but I may have a punt with this share. Any advice?

I own Hochschild Mining the other FTSE 250 listed silver miner - done very well for me so far.

Is it not really bullish that gold has rallied today along with stocks?

A contrarian might take it as a warning bearish signal to sell since it's doing the opposite of what you would expect. This happened in December 1974 when the Dow made it's final low on Friday 6th and gold made a new high 3 weeks later on Friday 27th and Monday 30th.

If the bottom in stocks was Monday 9th this week then I think it's possible gold could go higher whilst the market decides what direction it's moving in as everything is at a crossroads right now. So gold could still make a new high if stocks begin an early rally although you wonder with the information at the touch of a fingertip these days compared to 1974 and the use of TA whether the same thing would still happen.

Now or Never. Face The Gold Cliff & Buy - http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_...n_s_031109.html

 

 

Worth a read.

Thanks, excellent article - puts all those stories into perspective and how they are done to get people buying at a short-term peak. When you read these predictions of $2000 gold for 2009 you wonder how many people are believing it - the prices people are paying on Ebay and the number of bids each lot is getting is amazing.

I think he got a little carried away right at the very end

46. As gold does a potential ten bagger to $10,000 an ounce, the junior gold stocks could rise a hundred fold. I'm serious.

Hell, I've stepped into HPC by mistake.

 

Could have sworn I'd hit the GEI button..... I'm having more & more senior moments........oh dear oh dear......

 

This is definitely GEI - if you need HPC then here's the link

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...p;#entry1730468