John Doe

A different opinion - Tom Winnifrith;

There's an interesting response to that article on HPC.

this cannot continue...

But it can continue! Prices are well supported by rents, unlike what happened in Ireland, Spain, or the USA. There was no construction bubble, unlike Ireland, Spain, or the USA. It's just stupid to compare income-to-house-price multiples and assume they will revert to the mean. Interest rates have fallen, people are living longer, wealthy baby-boomer pensioners are investing in safe stable investments (property) for their retirements.

 

Reversion to the mean is not a fact of life, and certainly not a fundamental rule of investing. The world population is growing; it won't revert to the mean. The value of the pound sterling keeps falling; it will never revert to the mean (once upon a time, £1 = 1 lb of gold). House price to income ratios won't revert either: the world has changed, the economy has changed. "When the facts change, I change my mind." Well, I'm changing my mind on a HPC. I just regret that I was too slow to notice the facts changing.

Reply No.11 (Drewster)

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2013/04/blog-not-sustainable-39211.php

Call for pensioners to 'share the pain' of cuts

By: malterwitty

 

Pensioners should share the pain of austerity cuts and pay more tax to promote fairness between the generations in the housing market, a think-tank has warned.

The Fabian Society claims high levels of home ownership among older people threatens fairness, as the wages of middle-income workers stagnate and they cannot afford to buy a home.

 

It argues pensioners' taxes should increase, their benefits should be cut, and a tax on property wealth should be introduced.

Might actually happen, if pensioners ever stop voting

Well, I would send you a Private Message asking for the ability to edit posts (I am a bit of a stickler for grammar and spelling so, if I make a mistake, I like to correct it) - but, I can't see how to do do it. I thought clicking on the member to view their profile might be the way to go, but, apparently, not.

 

I write software for a living. One of these days - retirement beckons - I am going to write proper forum software.

Hi Bab,

After you have made a post, then there is an edit button that appears on the bottom right of the post (next to the report, multiquote and quote buttons) which you can use for an hour or so.

(PS, the edit and the report links both look greyed out until you put the mouse over them)

Oh Dear.

You can find plenty of instances were I said I was wrong about London property prices.

 

But there were many other things that I had right. You JD's memory is flawed, maybe badly flawed.

For my record, all you have to do is look at this thread:

 

DrBubb's Property Diary : tinyurl.com/GPC-Diary

 

All the most significant posts are there to be read - Go ahead and read them, just over 200 posts.

ENJOY

You will find great calls and bad calls, and everything in between.

 

If JD thinks he can do better, he should start his own Diary - as I have invited him to do.

Calm down Dr B, no-one can be right all the time

I guess I've always worried that because it's such a small market (relatively) that it's potentially open to manipulation by bigger forces/powers. But as you imply, there is more to it than that and in many parts it's seen as the safest hedge of all (and will remain that way). If you ever find that crystal ball, please let me have a gander

any thoughts on Gold John Doe?

Sorry zoomraker, but I really don't know much about gold or PMs (apart from it being an historical store of wealth etc) and I've never really followed the gold threads etc.

That said, it looked like a good deal back in 2003/4 (Credit where it's due to Dr B and others for getting in early on that one), but I was always happier with stocks and the housing market as I knew a little about them and practically nothing really about Gold etc (hence I've never commented on any of the gold threads).

I bought a few sov's etc back in 2005, but for fun really, nothing serious. Got some silver last xmas, and have been looking at possibly getting some more sovs & silver soon (but again, no great amount).

And now that the wise UK government, comprised of philosopher kings, financial genii and brilliant students of human nature is offering government backed sub-prime mortgages, it would seem highly probable that there are going to be further increases.

I still can't believe that they printed money! And everyone just accepted it, as if it were the most normal thing !

Oh come on, really. You were constantly going on about crash cruise speed etc for years, and all the time BDEV, your Bellwether, continued to rise (try overlaying BDEV with Land reg figures).

Only recently have you suggested a bottom might be in (for now).

As for my “system”, it’s based on watching the market over decades, living in many parts of the UK and knowing people from all walks of life (with whom I still have regular contact), reading books from authors like Pretcher, Boner and Harrison etc, and then, when they began to appear about 2004, taking in all the views on sites like this and HPC, learning how the PTB work to keep the system going at any cost (and the lengths they go to), and I also watch how most of the country are doing, and don't just concentrate on the poor sods who are being hammered by this crisis (as the perma-bears always do), and then I make up my own mind from the information I’ve assembled from all these sources.

TBH, it’s served me very well thank you, as my historical posts here clearly show. From my concerns it was all a big ponzy from way back before HPC (my posts started here from ~2006 and explained, long before the 2007 downturn, how I'd been thinking it had all been crazy since 2002-3) to my STR’ing in late 2007, and buying back in the dip of 2009 when it was clear that QE, here and abroad, along with other government interventions, was going to stabilise things and the financial collapse we were concerned about was averted and unlikely to happen for at least another 20 years or more (when they forget how close they came this time). They printed money FFS! (I still can't believe they did this)

Since then, I’ve put the more balanced case here, and been slated for it many times. However, here we are.

Anyway, the past is gone and it's the future that matters. So, if rates rise significantly in the next couple years (unlikely) then that could conceivably result in a new correction. If not, and we don’t have another boom in the meantime, then the excesses could well be worked off by the time rates start to go up.

Who was right?

It’s not really a matter of who was right, although you were certainly wrong on this one .

I think it depends on what prices you are looking at.

 

The Bulls can look at London, and say they called it right.

 

While the Bears look at UK-Haliwide, or Rest of UK.

Not really.

We were all talking about the UK as a whole (as the indices pointed out). Everyone knew that certain parts of London were different and these had seen their nominal low in 2009 (perhaps except for a few diehards that repeatedly kept trying to say London was falling and it would all collapse).

Indeed, going further, we, (the one or two less bearish), often pointed out that good houses in good areas were easily outperforming not-so-nice properties in less affluent areas, and regularly pointed out that there isn’t single market in the country, just many smaller ones. However, taking the country as a whole, it is no surprise at all to see nominal prices essentially flat over the last year or two, and unlikely to fall much further, if at all in the coming few years.

Surprised ? / Seems like no one is... the postings have dried up on this thread

Some of us aren't suprised at all.

For the last couple of years, you all were bangining on about crash cruise speed etc, while one or two of us predicted the nominal low would be in 2012, and that was nearly two years back, when it was clear that the peculiarities of the UK and their affair with housing, and the PTB requirement to stop them falling to far, became obvious.

We were slammed (often very rudely) for having such outrageous views. Yet, here we are.

As we said many times, never underestimate the lengths the PTB will go to keep house prices high. The banks would collapse otherwise. (They think that would be bad).

^ Hmmmmm.

Do I detect a bear turning bullish?

No more crash cruise speed?

(Then again, it is April 1st )

Not exactly a fair comparison. Asking prices in London, Vs approved mortgages for whole UK

Interesting read...

 

The biggest surprise in George Osborne’s Budget was the announcement of a huge expansion of mortgage credit. This was clearly designed to portray the Tories as continuing the work of Margaret Thatcher. It is, after all, a well-known fact that the British are peculiarly obsessed with home ownership, while everyone else rents. And it is another equally well-known fact that Mrs Thatcher, who won three elections, did so on the back of an unprecedented rise in home ownership.

 

 

Both facts are well-known – and both are utterly wrong. In 2000, the UK came 11th out of 20 countries in home ownership rates in an EU survey. Another study in 2004 put the UK as a mid-level country in terms of owner-occupation. Since then, home ownership in the UK has declined quite steeply, so it is likely that we are now close to the bottom of the table.

The entire British economy became built around servicing ever-rising housing costs. By early 2008, another £20 billion each month went on mortgage lending, while of the £10 billion lent for corporate “investment”, much was tied up in property speculation. At least 66 per cent of our lending was going to a large lending bubble. The real figure was probably more than 80 per cent.

And for years we built too few homes. In the 1960s we built 360,000 new homes a year. In the 2000s we built 160,000 a year, many of which were small flats. Last year we started construction on 100,000 new homes. So rents have continued to rise pretty consistently, even during the continuing recession.

http://www.telegraph...ing-market.html

Are the mainstreram press finally catching up?

does it need stimulus because it's a weak market, high prices but low volume?

If, for example, they were about to announce a massive home building program, then they'd need to stimulate to stop the inevitable falls of existing stock.

The bank system can't afford a further drop of more than 5 or maybe 10% (assuming they'll have to mark to market again one day )

In my happy little dream, this is what they will do. More houses, more affordable, more people being able to spend their money in the real economy, instead of via interest to the banks. Ah happy thoughts

And there's More to come, I reckon

House builders love this budget. Calling it a game changer.

House builders have shot up on the back on the budget.

Yep. Another budget to help the house builders.

Hi yes move the thread it will be easier to find in the other section

 

 

PS is it me or is are we in the earlyish stages of another mega tech boom rally - a point which has maybe gone unnoticed during the search for Spock ?

The hi-tech sector certainly seems to be grabbing all our half decent students/PhDs over the last year or two.

[the funny thing is, people in the UK find it appalling that 7% of savings can be 'stolen' in this way by the country in its efforts to regain solvency... But there is little overt fuss made of the 6% loss in Sterling this year alone, which has occurred as a result of the country's efforts to regain solvency...]

Indeed. Looking at the (fiddled) inflation Vs savings rate over the last few years (in addition to the devaluation), shows the UK savers have been hit just as much, if not worse.

Without seeing the numbers, I guessing that wouldn't raise much. It's likely most accounts, current and savings are less than E100,000, so, they 'taxed' them at thge lower rate.

Sadly so. The masses with a little still add up to more than the few with a lot.

However, I still think hitting those who had savings less than the stated government deposit protection limit is pure criminality, and will end in more serious problems if they actually vote it through.

Edit** Oddly enough, it seems if they reject the deal, and the banks go bust, then the deposit protection scheme kicks in (100,000 Euro limit).

However, not sure where the funds would come from if their two biggest banks have just gone belly up with debts equal to the countries GDP (EU wide protection scheme?)

Isn't this news more fuel for London property prices? People have a choice between keeping money in dodgy EU banks that might start stealing it or dump it in London property whose value is always protected the the UK government at any cost. If more money did flow into London property that would sterling positive. TPTB might have just managed to persuade lots of Europeans to buy houses in Spain, France, etc

Yeah, pound will probably rise. Compared to half the basket case EU banks, the UK's are still "relatively" safe. (All relative mind). i.e. Spain is really in the s88t still.

They still have to vote it through mind. (Perhaps they could take the burdon off the poorest savers and go for a bigger proportion of the >100,000 euro brigade?)

I guess they will vote after they see the initial market reaction Monday morning.

Yes, sorry: guilty as charged.

 

I've looked briefly at one or two bits, cuch as this -- http://www.raidersnewsupdate.com/ -- and recoiled, having had my instincts confirmed that we're dealing here with puerile drivel.

 

The over-excited, intellectually-facile, downright ignorant Christiano-triumphalist rubbish, (mis-)using the tired old categories of Antichrist, Armageddon, and other such talismans of pseudo-Biblical American ecclesio-imperialism is just simply too wearisome for words.

 

I shall retreat to the other board that you've kindly created, hope that you'll send the house-price thread to join me, and go back to my preferred method of visiting these boards for financial and economic insights, and somewhere else (where people can distinguish literary types and have a sense of historical context) for my theology.

Nice

I agree this thread should be on the serious board.

Not because anyone's right or wrong, but simply because of all the threads, this one really has nothing at all to do with the "other" stuff.

Well, as my eagle thread only lasted an hour on the main site (are you a mod now van?), I thought I mention what did catch my attention today. This was US homes improving again,

http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-20796835

alongside UK lenders predicting more lending and purchases next year.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-20789252

The bottom (nominal, as some of us predicted it would be over a year ago, to almost universal ridicule) might well, in future hindsight, have been late 2012 - early 2013.

Access to all the Alien technology and development of Teslas ideas on zero point energy are helping to avoid the expected crash

 

The elite and the others who are working on these projects have been buying up property knowing that it can never totally crash and they more or less have a one way bet. The Alien libraries also have access to advanced economics that are way ahead of anything humans have come up with so far.

 

Having a big price correction was just a way to enable the insiders to buy up more stuff.

I knew it! I knew that's what it was!

Where you been AAK?

Yep.

See chart:

 

Percentage increase in types of housing, 1991-2007

 

herein: http://www.hnm.org.u...ing-supply.html

So what you're saying is, more social housing = lower housing costs?

Wow, who'd have thought that eh?

Have you forgotten?

It was once a popular "hotspot" for London based BTL investors

And Radio 5 Live DJ's

a decline of 2.2% in Scotland and 11.7% in Northern Ireland."

Well heh, who'd want to live there?

Up 2.8% in Wales Cymru am byth!

Nearly forgot, ONS out today.

Small rise...

Average house prices across the UK have been rising, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Its latest monthly survey shows that prices rose by 0.2% on October, to leave them 1.5% higher than a year ago.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20767378