kkeegan123

I'm no chartist, but my primitive understanding tells me that, with all those supports converging, we'll either (i) bounce belligerently or (ii) plummet precipitously. Has anyone had experience of using a combination of a short (with a stop loss) and a long (with a stop loss) to play this situation so that you win either way once a trend becomes clear?

Hmmm, interesting thought wanderer. My broker allows hedging with the above technique, but Id5 is right, the strategy is fraught with danger.

Your strategy is normally utilised just prior to a news release in order to catch the action and quickly close out the losing trade or at the end of a wedge formation perhaps. I'm not convinced that any move by silver will be so dramatic that you couldn't exit the losing trade manually. Using buy/sell limits is safer, as Id5 suggests.

Nonetheless, I am sufficiently intriqued. I believe the technique warrants closer inspection and I have time on my hands. Perhaps, with the combined FX knowledge of GEI posters, a reworked strategy could be developed.

Incidently, could anyone tell me if it's generally true that gold leads silver in an uptrend and silver leads gold in a downtrend or is it all about fundamentals?

JL

hey, hoped to get more feedback on this idea! what's wrong with it?? If nothing why don't you all do it!! LOL

Hi CVP, I always use the checklist below before opening a swing trade, although I am a day trader at heart.

* What stage is this stock in?

* Is this stock in and uptrend or a downtrend?

* Is the stock at the beginning, middle, or end of the trend?

* How strong is the trend?

* Where are the trend lines?

* What wave is this stock in?

* What do the moving averages tell me?

* Was there a breakout recently?

* Is the chart "smooth" or "sloppy"?

* Are there any chart patterns?

* Are there wide range candles in the direction of the trend?

* Are there any gaps in the direction of the trend?

* Are professionals selling strength or buying weakness?

* Where are the support and resistance areas?

* Is this stock at a Fibonacci level?

* What does volume tell me?

You could consider opening 2 long trades at $10 a pip with a tight initial stop loss on one position but not on the other in case the market turns in your favour after an initial fall. Move both stops up to your start price asap for two free trades and then set a 50 or 100 pip t/s on one of the trades and let the other one ride. Then again I trade Pm and currency movements through my Forex broker and I guess CFD trading is probably different, so none of the above may apply. Tax free though, if I remember rightly.

Good luck anyhow.

JL

Did you think about opening the door?

 

Do you know, the strangest thing is the thought didn't even enter my head. I just stood and watched from the kitchen, totally bemused as they popped through the letterbox one at a time and formed a heap on the mat.

$1170 just now...

And to think, I hesitated...

Me too and thanks to whomever mentioned them here. I got some silver in in Sept and very pleased with their prices and service.

I felt a bit sorry for my local postie when my Sarnia deliveries arrived. She looked rather miffed at all the seperate packages , seemed like she was shoveling them through the letterbox for ages. Out of sympathy I think I'll limit my orders to 20 items or less in the future.

Good questions, JL. I think my selling strategy depends on other factors and ratios best outlined by Goldfinger. That is unless I really need the money to buy plane tickets or food in a severe emergency.

 

I am not too concerned about the short term exit strategy. Regarding swapping gold/silver for property I am becoming steeled for the very long term as the sentiment in the UK seems made of those black granite worktops and those that dictate that sentiment are desperate blockheads. How quickly that sentiment could turn I don't know. Back last winter I had a few agents on the run but couldn't nail the deal (thankfully?) by being usurped at the finishing line.

 

Looking at the charts and that spike in 1980 I think you would have been extremely lucky to sell there. If that opportunity comes along then I will be there with the goods as near I can to the top. I think the price may well explode to these levels. Overnight then that would be very nice. Maybe a chance to sell a good percentage.

 

As a balance I do think that there is a good chance both silver and gold will take a knock/be engineered a knock like last year before bouncing back again. That's why I have been cautiously adding to my stock rather than going 'all (remaining) in'. I hate buying at the tops (now) but can't stomach the thought of it running out of reach completely either.

 

All in all though I am more than happy waiting for the long term forecast to materialize. Where that is is anyone's guess of course but still some way north of where we are today. The last spike was caused by different factors than we have now. We may well reach a new floor in price and this will be stonger thanks to the tiny, tiny size of the gold and silver markets. The scarcity IMO and difficulty to come by (demand) could really send the two ballistic. So selling into a spike may be a mistake unless other conditions/ratios are met.

 

My own plans (for UK) have been derailed and shattered basically (a blessing in disguise perhaps) so now I am digging in for a battle of attrition. And at the moment I am enjoying it. You know though, that I am in Japan and I am equally worried that the source of the hyperinflations nightmare will start here somehow. Yesterdays news however is that we are back in deflation (like I needed reminding). Wages are down again. 40% of graduates cant get jobs. Prices are falling. Nobody is buying Jack. Stores have sales you couldn't imagine (socks for 10 Yen etc etc). There are holes in the streetscape where shops have once been. (They pull them down here and give back the land) Streets are nicknamed 'shutter dori (street)'. It is all rather depressing. Nobody out shopping. This is classic deflation mentality and it is quite gripping. It seems like the only people surviving are those serving the public sector. What a joke!

 

Maybe when a deflation hits bottom you have a hyperinflation. I really honestly couldn't tell you. I don't think Japan has much room to manoevre. A few years?

 

Thus to me the only thing to buy is PM's when you can. Short term/Long term... I just hope there is use on loading up and we get to a 'spring' somewhere soonish. Fat chance, eh? Buy while you still can.

Thankyou for taking the time and effort to post this interesting reply.

Sarnia have always dispatched my orders in a timely fashion. However once the cost of 1oz plus postage reaches £18, I assume Sarnia will have to start charging VAT.

Yes, my thoughts exactly and the way we're going probably won't be long.

A quick word of recommendation for SarniaSilver. I placed an order for multiple different items on Thursday and my order arrived this morning. 100% present and correct. First impressions - very impressed.

I look forward to the day seeing the price as 50 quid, 75 dollars and 7000 yen per coin. I wonder if/when we'll get there?

Hi Jake, would you sell either partially or wholly at these levels, assuming that your personal/financial situation remains more or less unchanged?

The reason I ask is that I am concerned about my lack of a short-term exit strategy.

I am psychologically prepared for a long hold and a steady price rise over the course of many years. I have always assumed that I will have plenty of time to plan my sales etc...easy, but what if the scenario we have all planned for doesn't happen. Instead, the price explodes very quickly to these levels, almost overnight.

Where does that leave our meticulously planned exit strategies?

Monday is options expiry day. The cartel will try to take the price down as far as is possible, but the thing is that they are losing the ability to do so, I believe, now that china and others are buying at any opportunity the cartel present. At some point the cartel has to let the price run, how much physical gold can they keep letting asia have cheap?

 

I think, and this is just my opinion, that there is a commercial signal failure going on currently. Due to the fact that the paper shorts are now being called to deliver physical, which is now in very short supply, and they can't. I expect that today after the cartels plan A action this morning the price will rise this afternoon to higher than it started, but I could be wrong.

 

The last week or so each time they take the price down, it has been springing straight back up. As I was saying at some point they will need to be buying in a rising market to cover their shorts before Monday. That is why I think the price will go up this afternoon to more than it has fallen.

 

BTW I think silver has also joined the party now.

Pixel8r, embarrassing question from the back of the class but, I'm sure I read somewhere that the big commercial shorts can leave their positions open almost ad-infinitum. Why would they be in a panic to cover them now?

Note to self - Try and pay attention.

Did anyone buy any English Roses? If so what are they like? Still awaiting confirmation of order...but in the meantime I managed to secure a mint roll of Kennedy '64's, some old Morgan dollars and other bits and bobs just for ehem, emergencies...

Tried to buy some back on the 11th Nov from Sarnia but my order couldn't be filled because they only had 7 left. Went to CID and got brits and eagles instead.

Interestingly, my FX broker are offering increased leverage on PM trading.

Dear Client,

As part of our commitment to delivering the best possible trading terms to our clients, we have introduced floating leverage for clients trading Gold and Silver.

As of Monday, 28th September 2009, margin requirements on open positions have been reduced to 1% for the first 20 lots of an open position, 2% for the next 30 lots (between 20.1 and 50 inclusive) and 5% on any amount above 50 lots. For hedged positions we now require half of the normal margin requirement for each side.

Floating leverage for precious metals

1% 2% 5%

Gold ≤20 lots 20.1 - 50 lots >50 lots

Silver ≤20 lots 20.1 - 50 lots >50 lots

For an example, please refer to our company news article located here.

Please note that due to the closure of Globex between the hours of 23:15 and 00:00 (23:15–00:00 MT4 time), Alpari (UK) will disable trading of precious metals each evening between these times.

Regards,

Alpari (UK)

BTW, I would like to thank all of you for the quality of your posts and your tolerance to newbies.

JL

The masses happily getting fiat for their granny's old jewelry-I pity their desperation and despise their greed. Many of them deserve to be fleeced for their lack of research. Many are genuinely short of cach to pay the mortgage/food/credit card. And I feel sorry for them. I am happy to be a 'nutter' and have alienated friends and family members for my pains. Now I just shut up and buy.

 

<snip>

 

So I dont think anyone knows what to expect. All we can do is try as best we can get prepared. The UK's route will not be as decorous as Iceland if the going gets bad. They've only got a handful of a population and are all probably well educated and philosophical. The UK on the otherhand...well, look around on Saturdays, it's scary.

 

Better get onto Chards website again and cheer myself up...

Informative post Jake, thanks. Lots of food for thought.

I think the cartel will give up for a while soon, I mean how much gold do they want to give china at a discount

 

$1350 here we come.

Exactly what I was thinking. Feels nice to have gold in strong hands doesn't it.

front-running the employment data

 

Hi Bill!

Looking at the market behaviour in the metals today I don't think I am going way out on a limb to suggest that the (UN)Employment data tomorrow is really going to stink.

 

<snip>

 

If the news is bad tomorrow, and if gold can fly in the face of that news, it will be a mega-financial market event for our camp, as it will indicate a further loss of control over gold by The Cartel.

 

Either way, no change in my outlook that gold and silver are ready to rumble to the upside, and hold their gains, VERY soon.

 

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

 

MIDAS

Well, it didn't exactly fly...actually it got a good $10 kicking as usual, but has retraced back to $993 from $986 in less than an hour.

Edit - now $996 almost fully retraced....good performance for gold.

Interesting post JL.

 

I am also thinking that a scenario could emerge whereby SHTF is avoided, but peoples confidence in fiat is significantly eroded due to a single/sequence of severe but temporary shocks to the monetary system and the price of PM's has risen considerably but not exploded. '

 

 

I think people's confidence is eroding. Look at China and the dollar. Russia, India, Japan, Brazil are all chipping in with anti dollar comments. Sterling stinks and is ready to plunge by all accounts and the 'nutters' on the internet forums have already changed their 'worthless' fiat into 'real' money 'no one's liability' 'cant print it' etc etc.

True Jake, anyone who makes it their business to know the facts has confidence issues with sterling and fiat, but at the moment, the masses think everything is hunkydory and are happily converting their "unwanted" PM's into fiat. As buyers of PM's, I think we will remain "nutters" for a while yet.

In a post sterling collapse environment the price of gold will be prohibitively expensive and silver will be the affordable PM investment vehicle of choice for the masses.

BTW, I would be interested to know what the generally accepted definition of a S hitting TF scenario might be?

Are we talking about sterling collapse and/or civil unrest, societal and/or basic infrastructure collapse or massive global confidence erosion in fiat currency?

Are Icelanders living through a SHTF scenario? Just curious, as well as just learning.

Yes, I know what you mean and some of the collections and commemorative 1 kg's are nice to look at. There's one or two I like there too.

 

<snip>

 

I like Chards and they have a wonderful website, but they are overpriced IMO. Still they are reliable, trustworthy, friendly and very, very knowledgable. Good solid Northern people. Perhaps I should relocate to Blackpool.

Securing bullion at the best possible price has been my primary goal for a long time, but I am always considering my exit strategy. Like all of us, I am trying to position myself favourably for a myriad of possible future scenarios. One of which could well be the SHTF and in which case we are holding bullion and hopefully protected.

I am also thinking that a scenario could emerge whereby SHTF is avoided, but peoples confidence in fiat is significantly eroded due to a single/sequence of severe but temporary shocks to the monetary system and the price of PM's has risen considerably but not exploded.

Life goes on, people are scared, the internet is still working, CiD still buy and sell PM's and the holding of physical PM's is not commonplace but crucially, the fundamentals of gold and silver are understood by many. In this environment, I can envisage a strong market developing for high quality and unusual investment pieces for long term holding.

Meanwhile, I would be holding onto my core bullion to hedge against further shocks, but would offload investment pieces into the marketplace probably using a popular internet auction site.

Excellent nj. Thanks a lot! I guess a few hours researching the types of coins, dates and equiv in troy ounces will be my sunday morning. It seems only really worthwhile picking up pre 1920 coins, unless you become a serious collector (which I am trying to resist). I bet they are well worn and when in good condition are expensive. Roll on sunday.

Interesting that you should mention resisting serious collecting, Jake. I was browsing Chards website earlier and although not what I would consider serious collecting, I do really like some of their medallic art collections and commemorative kilo coins.

2005 Alderney Battle of Trafalgar silver proof kilo coin here; http://24carat.co.uk/2005alderneytrafalgarsilverrkilo.html (Interesting quoted ad from Ebay)

and the

2002 Alderney Golden Jubilee Fifty Pound Silver Proof Kilo Coin with Selective Gold Plating here; http://24carat.co.uk/2002alderneygoldenjub...silverkilo.html

Contacted Chards to check price and availability, both in stock but the price is now £545 each and not £495.

Quite a hefty premium, about £100 p/kg more than a standard 1kg silver coin, but I'm getting bored with accumulating 1 oz maples, eagles, pandas and the like. They are nice coins but you can only admire them for so long.

I just feel it would be great to see something "special" nestling amongst the usual stuff in my stash.

The chart below shows something, that can not be pushed down. It comes back and back, and goes higher and higher. You can push it back temporarily, but it will go up and be back again, no question!

 

http://gold.approximity.com/gold-silver_watch.html

Although I understand the allure of PM's as a wealth preserver/haven, I am having difficulty deciding what the primary driving force for the current rally in PM's might be.

Is the main driver the weakness of the dollar, underlying fundamentals or the Chinese influence. I feel unable to make an informed decision on whether or not to increase my exposure to PM's at this juncture.

I always buy on the dips but can't help feeling that I may be waiting along time for a good buying opportunity, especially when considering GBP's fragility.

Hmmm... to buy or not to buy

I don't like the way the nitric is made, there are some very dangerous reactions that could occur here depending on what else is in the drain cleaner. For your own safety skip this step and buy yourself a suitable acid gas respirator and then buy yourself nitric acid here. It is not very strong but it will dissolve a small amount of silver over a few days. If you really want it to work faster then with the respirator on heat the solution gently outside in a pyrex beaker but keep organic residues away from it and do not get it boiling, this is all at your own risk not mine! Playing with acids can kill you! The rest will although I suspect that you will not recover as much of the silver as you hope.

Thanks id5, I've decided that using the chemical process of purification may be one tinker too far. However, can't get the idea out of my head now.

I was wondering if you could offer your thoughts on the two devices (Simplicity and electrolytic thumb cell) marketed here, http://shorinternational.com/refining.htm

They claim that the Simplicity can run 1 kg batch weights and can be used for gold and platinum. Are you familiar with the refining process that the Simplicity utilises and whether it would be possible to bodge a "home-made" version at a fraction of the cost?

Silver melts at 962C and a little butane torch will go to 1300C. Nitric will dissolve the most of board, chips, silver, gold and all. It is best to either separated by crushing and floating the light parts away or burning, and then processing the residual.

 

 

What process are you going to use?

Thanks for the warnings with regards to working with acids in your previous post. I am planning to follow the procedure outlined here;

http://www.goarticles.com/cgi-bin/showa.cgi?C=732873 and using broken and old silver jewellery donated by my wife.

I appreciate that the cost of materials will probably outweigh any potential profit from purifying the silver, but I just enjoy tinkering in the garden shed. Having said that, it sounds as though I would be well advised to undertake my experiments in the open air and upwind.

Hope I don't gas the neighbours...

Most are slightly mad, I know I am.

 

Interesting instructions on refining silver using acids. Do you think that an ordinary blow torch is hot enough to melt silver? Say you have loads of circuit boards with silver on them, does the Nitric acid only affect the silver?

Not really sure about the circuit boards Azazel, but from research to date, I would suggest that the nitric acid will dissolve not only the silver, but solder and most other components.

I was planning to use some old jewellery that the wife won't miss. All sterling silver (92.5 %) purity.

Looking forward to getting started, will let you know how it goes.....

Hi all, I have recently cleared out the garden shed and quite fancy the idea of setting up a mini silver refining "shed project".

http://www.goarticles.com/cgi-bin/showa.cgi?C=732873

I have loads of scrap silver and thought it may be interesting to have a go at making my own bars. The wife thinks I'm mad, but has anyone else tried refining silver.

Graphite molds in a variety of sizes are cheap enough to buy and although the process of refining appears quite complicated, I could have multiple stages of the process on the go at the same time.

Thought it could be a interesting hobby-type project, obviously, with due dilligence to health and safety aspects.

Am I mad?