geisaver
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Posts posted by geisaver
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Is this because there had been an increase in investment metal?
MUMBAI (Reuters) - India has changed the import duty on gold to two percent of value from the earlier flat 300 rupees per 10 grams, sending the shares of jewellery makers lower.
The world's biggest importer of bullion has also altered silver import duty to six percent of value from the earlier 1,500 rupees per kilogram, the government said in a statement.
Shares of Rajesh Exports (REXP.NS) fell nearly three percent after the announcement.
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/india-changes-import-duty-gold-084809110.html
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BTW, I wanted to start a thread on completely unhedged, debt-free, but dividend paying producers/developers. Are there any pure gold or silver plays anyhow that tick all these boxes? I don't mean royalties/streamers, because they have counterparty risk too. Anyway, just an idea.
Are you going to do the miner's thread in this section or is it buried somewhere else?
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Oh, and by the way, the Tata deal for land rover jaguar was done under the Labour gov, not camerons Conlib
I never said it wasn't Labour. The Nest/Tata deal I mentioned was rushed through a month after Cameron signed up Ratan Tata as an advisor.
Re cars let's hope we don't have another Rover scenario where management just syphon off loads of taxpayers cash for a short term jobs gain.
Hamish you are back on block now, your earlier post was only seen by accident.
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Tata, Nissan and many others now investing big time again in good old blighty.
Investing
Nissan were given tens of millions in government subsidies and loans.
Ratan Tata is one of Cameron's advisors.
Nest signs £600 million Tata IT contract
The competition to provide administrative services to Nest was concluded early, prompting some to question the value of Tata’s bid.
Just yesterday we have Tata saying they may start making cars in India
Cameron is looking to the future like Bliar.
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Indian gold imports plunge in Q4, seen down in Q1
MUMBAI (Reuters) - Gold imports by India, the world's top consumer, plunged 56 percent to 125 tonnes in the fourth quarter, cutting full-year imports by 8.4 percent as record high prices and high interest rates hit demand, the head of India's leading bullion body said.
India, whose appetite for gold dates back centuries, imported about 878 tonnes of gold in 2011, down from 958 tonnes in 2010, Bombay Bullion Association President Prithviraj Kothari said in an interview on Monday.
The World Gold Council said in November that for the fourth quarter it expected the world's second most populous country to buy more than the 281 tonnes it bought in the same period a year ago, taking total imports over 1,000 tonnes.
The October-December quarter covers the peak festival and wedding season, when Indians traditionally splurge on gold jewellery and investments. It is rare for gold demand in the last quarter to remain below third quarter consumption.
"Imports were very bad in October to December, compared with last year, compared with Q3 of this year," Kothari said.
"People were even selling gold in November. For them it was an investment," he added.
Indian gold prices hit a record high of 29,516 rupees per 10 grams on November 15. International gold prices touched an all-time high of $1,920.3 per ounce in September.
In local currency terms, the price of gold jumped 32 percent in 2011, tracking firmness in the world market and taking into account a 16 percent drop in the value of the rupee.
One reason behind the weak demand in the last quarter of the year was the increase in purchases during the first nine months, when many Indians snapped up gold bars and coins, hoping that prices would rally further, Kothari said.
In the first nine months of 2011, investment demand for gold in India rose 22.5 percent from a year earlier to 272.1 tonnes, data from the WGC showed.
But the rise in investment interest during 2011 was not sufficient to overcome a sharp drop in jewellery demand, Kothari said.
"Jewellery sales were very low. Investment demand rose in 2011. People were interested in coins and bars. The share of investment demand in total demand has risen to 35 percent in 2011," Kothari said.
Investment demand accounted for about 22.6 percent of total demand in 2010, WGC data showed.
India imports almost all of its gold requirements.
DEMAND WORRIES TO STAY
The factors that eroded demand and imports in the fourth quarter are likely to hurt demand in the first quarter of 2012, Kothari said.
"Still prices are high. Interest rates are high. Liquidity is tight. I think imports in the first quarter of 2012 will be 50 percent lower than last year," he said.
India imported 286 tonnes of gold in the first quarter of 2011, WGC data shows.
Gold prices in India are likely to move between 24,000 and 35,000 rupees per 10 grams in 2012, while the world price could range between $1,430 and $2,000 per ounce, Kothari said.
The most-active gold futures contract for February delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange was trading down 0.1 percent at 27,303 rupees per 10 grams by 1000 GMT.
In the world market, gold was trading at $1,565.31 per ounce.
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/indian-gold-imports-plunge-q4-102109225.html
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Short side of long has backed a truck up for PSLV ETF at $12.85
http://theshortsideoflong.blogspot.com/2011/12/portfolio-update-long-silver.html
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I never gave a timeframe, which i s why I am sure $2500 will come (see the FED devaluing the dollar?)-- but I believe $100/Oz silver will come [$100 in today's money] because there simply isn't the incentive to recycle it otherwise.
Without a timeframe isn't the prediction just meaningless? Over time what doesn't increase in price? I predict a loaf of bread will cost £5 but I cannot say when, does that make me a guru?
Re the decrease in purchasing power of the dollar isn't that partly reflected in the increase in wages? People don't earn now what they did in 1930 they earn more of those dollars.
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That would be speculation on the side of the trader. Otherwise, they should be hedged and make money on the bid-offer spread.
What do you think they would do as regards their hedge?
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What I find odd is that even with everyone supposedly selling, it's still almost impossible to get one's hands on much real metal. I bought three Krugerrands from Hatton Garden today ... and they were the last three gold coins they had in stock. While that remains true I won't feel anxious buying, for all the chartists' gloom.
Why would suppliers want lots of stock when prices are falling? Won't they wait and buy as the market is rising, then sell them at a higher price?
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Or, prolonged economic depression could see the flat go unoccupied for a period or the whole building could be devalued through social decay or lack of maintenence. If the BTL investor cannot keep the plates in the air for the full 25 year term, the forced sale and negative equity will bankrupt them.
Just an alternave scenario
Just reading an article with a comment that reminded me of this thread
I bought a new house that was at a reasonable price in order to rent it out and subsidise my pension. This was a good option because the government told us that 6.6 million people were looking for places to live. 6 months later and incuring monthly council tax, landlords insurance, standing charges for water, electricity and gas, I have not had 1 application. What the government failed to tell us was the 6.6 million people were looking for FREE places to live.
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I have not seen a figure quoted for the amount committed towards mortgages yet. The four hundred million pounds announced was basically a bribe to builders and a bail out for the land values on their balance sheets and ditto banks. It is supposed to bring mothballed housing developments back to life. So assuming each mothballed property on average requires a forty or even twenty thousand pound bribe for the builders to finish it, you are only looking at say ten to twenty thousand finished houses. Or roughly one to two weeks mortgage lending for house purchases at September 2011 levels.
I see what you mean. The £400m is just going to be distributed in brown envelopes to builders as bribes. No doubt lots of builders that Coalition MPs and their sponsors have interests in will be at the front of the queue. There is no figure mentioned on the amount of money to be used for the governments 5.5% mortgage liability.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/nov/21/cameron-clegg-homes-plan?newsfeed=true
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Have any meaningful numbers been published on this latest government wheeze to persuade proles to take on massive debts from banksters to 'get the housing market moving'? At a first glance it smells suspiciously like the various New Labour grand plans for housing and mortgages in 2008 - 2010 that fell to pieces upon closer inspection. Initial back of a fag packet calculation 400,000,000 / 160,000 = 2500. A bit high you might cry well divide it by 80,000, or 40,000. Bearing in mind for September 2011 total mortgage lending for purchases was seven billion one hundred million pounds on 48,200 sales for just one month. The initial four hundred million to "unblock" stalled housing schemes at say forty grand per property = 10,000 houses. Or less than one weeks worth of mortgage lending for September 2011.
Unless the total amount committed is in the tens of billions per year, it initially strikes me as more political smoke and mirrors designed to win some favourable headlines in the mainstream media. Ditto the £150 million to help bring empty housing back into use. At fifteen grand per property it brings ten thousand properties back to a habitable standard. At ten grand per property it brings back fifteen thousand. At five grand per property it brings back thirty thousand, a tiny percentage of the total housing stock. Fingers crossed I didn't inadvertently borrow a calculator off Mr G Brown when doing the sums.
Isn't the government only putting up 5.5% of the mortgage? So on a £160k house their share is £8,800 meaning 45,000 houses using £400m
The scheme is just something to pretend to be helping FTBs and grab the headlines, to cover what they are doing with REITs.
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That one is also correct IMO using government CPI-inflation. The reason is the same, the average in those years was much lower (around the spot prices of today, I guess) than the singular spike. See also the chart below for an illustration. Naturally, the same caution applies: this is one singular measure for relative value, which is also skewed because of the use of hedonistic government adjustments to CPI - similarly the property:gold chart is somewhat skewed because of the extent of the US housing crisis (there was no such crisis in 1980).
On a government CPI-adjusted base, and on a house price base, taken as is with no other information, it looks as if a top in gold was close, but if I look at the corresponding monetary data I can just laugh at that idea.
OK thanks.
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I believe this chart is correct, especially since the 1980 top of over $800 lasted only a couple of days or so, while we have been north of $1,600 for a long time now, so the average annual price of gold in 1979-80 was much lower (than $800). Do I think it's time to get out? No, not really yet. I've always said that the former lows are places to watch out for, but as well that this financial crisis is so much larger and that we need to look at other indicators as well.
I see no reason why the average U.S. house built in the middle of nowhere in the hope for cheap oil/energy, good employment, a stable dollar, and lots of cheap debt for property speculation should not lose much more value compared to gold.
Watch out for sub-50-oz prices.
What do you think of the inflation adjusted gold chart?
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Inflation adjusted gold now higher than in 1980?
US housing to gold ratio now same as 1979 low
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Am I imagining that I heard on the box last night that there will be some sort of statement today from the government saying they will be guaranteeing mortgages in some way - to get the banks lending again? Think they said something along the lines of the government guaranteeing the value of the 'missing' deposit now that lenders are asking for 20% deposits. So, the government will be giving the green light to 100% mortgages again.
Hmmm - the weird thing is young people should revolt against this - as those not in the market yet will be shackled with enormous debts to put a roof over their head - but, in fact, they'll sign up in droves.
Very strange how little people understand the world around them.
How long before the house price indexes are going up again. Madhouse.
Mortgages are already topped by councils
http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2011/mar/16/local-councils-first-time-buyer-mortgage-support
I'm just waiting for the day when they pass a law when if you have over £x amount in the bank and don't own a house, you are given a prison sentence.
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I guess it's definition. Maybe I am just thinking differently, but I don't think it's right to count my home as a financial asset, but yes, to keep the rain off (and it fails sometimes at that!). It's a financial asset only in the sense that it lets 'me work for me', and not a landlord.
My PMs probably are comparable to the house value, just a guess.
Yes it's definition. A lot of people would say your assets are now allocated 50% property and 50% PMs. Depending on when you bought the PMs your asset allocation could have been a much lower percentage in PMs.
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Well, I need somewhere to live and I have no control over the investments in my pension; neither do i have any control over pension scheme changes (goalpost-moving).
I am ~100% PM for what I control and don't 'need'.
If someone had owned a £300k house outright for 3 or 4 years and put their spare £15k cash into PMs, plus some or all of their spare recent income, would they be 100% PMs?
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Thing is, I am not speculating. This is likely a retirement investment for me (I am ~30 years away from retirement). It's the 3rd pillar to me, because I own my home and contribute to an 'ok' final salary pension, which, if all's well, should perform ok. However I believe the pension obligations will be defaulted on either by inflation or outright failure, so the gold is the counterbalance. My aim is simply to get as many ounces as possible.
Can someone with 3 pillars also be 100% PMs?
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UK banks’ rush into property needs watching
By John Plender
Published: April 19 2011 16:27 | Last updated: April 19 2011 16:27
While the financial crisis that began in 2007 had a plethora of causes, property was at the heart of the problem. The fact that the big UK-based banks, with the exception of Lloyds Banking Group which is battling with the dismal property legacy it acquired with HBOS, have been significantly increasing their exposure to the sector should thus prompt eyebrows to twitch.
Most of the growth, revealed in the banks’ recent annual reports, is coming from a big expansion in UK residential lending. Since 2008 HSBC’s UK home loans have risen 31.5 per cent, leaving commercial and residential property accounting for 31.6 per cent of total loans; the rise at RBS is 14.8 per cent, giving a percentage of total loans of 36.3 per cent; and Barclays’ UK home loans have increased by more than a fifth, taking property to 41.4 per cent of total loans.
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putting property on at an overvalued price then dropping the price
to a point where it is still overvalued may trap the gullible into
thinking they are getting a bargain
customer is happy and agent achieves a higher commission than marking the price low from the start
Putting a sale sign in a shoe shop window catches my wife every time
I think the plan is to make their unsold properties look cheaper.
If say they have one on at £300k that isn't shifting putting a similar property on at £350k makes it look cheap. Then once the original one sells they reduce the £350k to £325k then put the next one on at £350k or £375k to make that look cheap. Then a floor of at least £300k is established instead of dropping the original £300k further. If they had put the second house at £300k both that and the original £300k might have been reduced.
An agent near me has a 4 bed that's been on for ages. They have just put a 3 bed on at the same price. The 4 bed will now sell because it looks "cheap" to someone.
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Specifically with the stamp duty thing. If in a single transaction you buy 1 flat for £100k you pay no stamp duty, do this 15 times and you've spent £1.5M and paid no stamp duty. If in a single transaction you buy 15 £100k flats for £1.5M you used to pay stamp duty on £1.5M at 5% = £75k, you will now pay stamp duty at 15 times the median price which is 15 times £100k at 0% = £0. This is the most extreme example I could come up with, but it would have applied to any multiple purchase in a single transaction that took the total value into the next tax band.
http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/sdlt/intro/rates-thresholds.htm
The change just allows bulk purchases to occur in a single transaction without there being a tax penalty. I think it's for 2 reasons; 1) Allow bulk purchase of existing blocks/portfolios 2) Allow banks to package up repoed houses/developments into portfolios to sell in single transactions.
I thought there was a minimum of 1% so in your example they would pay £15k?
If the houses were £249k instead of £100k the total spend is £3,735,000 so at 5% SDLT, would have been £186,750 now it's just £37,350 saving them £149,400 assuming a 1% minimum. 15 "hard working families" not FTBs still pay £186,750
I agree with your 1) and 2)
SDLT for FTBs is going to be looked at in the Autumn. I expect they will have theirs increased to help fund the giveaways to the bulk buyers
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Chazza posted about it on page 108 of this thread. Conclusion seemed to be that it would just allow bulk buyers access to the market on the same terms as smaller investors. A bank doesn't really want to have to process 50 repo sales one at a time to a bulk buyer, but that's what they would have had to do to be tax efficient.
Why is it same terms? Smaller investors have to pay stamp duty on each property and income tax on their rental income.
It seems to me that the budget was anti-small BTL landlords.
A person who thought interest rates are going to rise, might suspect big business is having the government give them huge tax breaks now so that they are positioned to scoop up lots of properties from BTL landlords if they start struggling with interest rate rises.
A very cynical person might even think that housing benefit cuts are also to help flush the properties out of the hands of BTL landlords - once the REITs have gobbled up enough properties they can always put husing benefit back up!
REITS cash sales so no mortgage interest, no CGT, no tax on rental income, now no 2% conversion charge.
GOLD
in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
Posted
I don't understand the tone of your posts sometimes. That one seems to me a bit like deriding posters on here. Why do it?
Wouldn't this be better:
"A confusing story, but it does suggest the story is much more than pure invention"