BlackPepper
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Posts posted by BlackPepper
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Pfft' the last horrah of the last easy credit orgy. Cannot imagine anyone with half of brain scrambling for some toxIc UK crap real estate?
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Well, I'm sure I've made it clear enough that I am all in now. My silver stocks portfolio total is now just over 8% down. It reached an intra day low of a bit over 20%. If we have seen the bottom, then I am very pleased with that.
Speculation......how much are you prepared to lose? Bets on capital gains hahahah
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Beautiful, blue, CLEAN AIR, of the sort we almsot never see in Hong Kong
nothing compared to NSW south coast with white sands and clear water with waves you can surf and fish http://www.fishingmonthly.com.au/Articles/Display/8552-Estuaries-thaw-out
http://www.barramundifishingblog.com/
you can have clean air http://www.google.com.au/search?q=byron+bay&hl=en&prmd=imvns&source=lnms&tbm=isch&ei=6uG4T-WJMaydiAekoKDyCA&sa=X&oi=mode_link&ct=mode&cd=2&ved=0CHUQ_AUoAQ&biw=1600&bih=7
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Now is really not the time to be asking these kinds of questions. You should already be decided and either staying out or engaged in a buying program.
Perhaps an exit strategy..........
Worries about Europe are pushing people to the dollar,” Frank McGhee, the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “Gold will continue to grind down.”
Advertisement: Story continues below
Gold futures for June delivery declined 1.5 per cent to settle at $US1561 an ounce on the Comex in New York. Earlier, prices touched $US1555, the lowest since Dec. 30. The metal ended 2011 up 10 per cent at $US1566.80.
Prices may slump to $US1,520 within the next few trading sessions, McGhee said.
Bullion for immediate delivery dropped as much as 1.4 per cent to $US1556.52. It ended 2011 at $US1563.70
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/gold-erases-years-gains-20120515-1ynlk.html#ixzz1ut5RBgRA
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There's something Good about this?
Propping up the builders
Daily Mail: Buy a £500,000 home with just FIVE PER CENT deposit!
PM hopes new scheme will get first-time buyers back on the property ladder
(just in time for the next crash! -
Will someone shoot him BEFORE the damage is done please!)
£1bn of taxpayers' cash to be used to guarantee loans for new-build homes Barclays, Nationwide and NatWest to offer 95% mortgages under scheme But MPs fear NewBuy deal, which is open to ALL buyers, could spark another credit crisis And deal is derided as gimmick that will only help construction industry
I think there is nothing that will prop up the property/asset market in the UK much longer, beyond the Olympic games. A delayed delusion perhaps, but we are pricing falls of above 20 percent after August 2012 and who knows. Something else to consider IT is sourced cheaper within Asia with performance results that exceeds. Above that holding costs that effects nett returns make the UK look very unattractive, and currency without merit and tax systems that reward slackers. To add which is more important, service industry is to costly, and performance poor. Technology no longer limits location.
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"Capital is going to where it's safe, and it hasn't been safe in gold," Frank Lesh, a trader at FuturePath Trading in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. "Currency markets tend to rule in commodities, and right now the (US) dollar is king."
Gold futures for June delivery slid 0.6 per cent to settle at $US1594.20 an ounce on the Comex in New York. Earlier, the metal touched $US1578.50, the lowest since Jan. 3.
Gold is trending downwards, and I do not think this time QE3 will have the same impact as previous. Speculative investing appears to be on the nose. I say this because the investors I deal with want guaranteed returns in lower risk assets.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/gold-drops-to-fourmonth-low-20120510-1ydsr.html#ixzz1uPmGwuOc
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Once again, he is quoting JL on the value of sitting tight in bull markets:
""Well, you know this is a bull market!" he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend. And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!"
Of course, the sitting-tight-maneuver by the Gold cult, allowed the traders who can spot parabolic moves, a nice easy exit around $1900. I wonder if Livermore would have been one of those exiting at $1900 if he had been alive today?
My own trading of options and Bull Spreads has allowed me to re-enter the market with limited risk and at low cost, and still have plenty of cash on the sidelines. Personally, I think if JL were alive today, that's how he would be playing it, not sitting on his hands.
Gold’s weakness was exacerbated by “another one of those tsunamis of selling,” says John Howlett, division vice president with Mitsubishi International. “Supposedly upwards of 14,000 lots of gold were sold in the 5 minutes from 8:20 to 8:25
the above is a comment from zerohedge. Interesting the volume being suddenly sold off.
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Wasn't long ago that investors were salivating over the prospect of 1650 gold. If you're talking about buy and hold then a decent sized time frame needs to be kept in mind. 20% gains year on year are nothing to be sniffed at.
Yes certainly, and gold did perform very well indeed, but perhaps that "time frame" of speculative capital gains has left the building as per buy and hold. After all hoarding prevents opportunity for others.
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Nah, just in the doldrums after a spike up. Nothing unexpected.
Yes just the doldrums of a downward trend...Gold futures for June delivery fell 2.1 per cent to settle at $US1604.50 on the Comex, the biggest decline for a most-active contract since April 4. Earlier, the price touched $US1595.50, the lowest since Jan. 4.
I can see why investors are now looking at income producing assets. This buy and hold business does not look very attractive.
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sorry not sure what i did wrong there
No idea either, but gold fell another 1% for what its worth.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/gold-posts-biggest-oneday-drop-in-a-month-20120504-1y2im.html
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Based on this 3 year log chart of gold it would not be unrealistic to be looking for $2000 by September...
The linear regression trendlines allow you to see some context and within the context of the last three years the correction relative to the mean has been deeper.
Of course there's no guarantee the corrective phase is over. Maybe a sign of that would be a rally in gold miners...?
Looking back further we can see it relative to the 2008 correction;
Yes perhaps, but gold's last leap over the rainbow from 2008 was from stimulus QE1/QE2 and the speculated QE3 that did not happen and not to mention ever increasing inflation to hyper-inflation so far has not happened. So perhaps the corrective phase is downward. All speculation
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So RH,VAN....
Could we now be looking for a start in the next up trend ?
Perhaps, the latest speculation/s is that the FED may boost stimulus.
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http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/04/23/970271/the-unwitting-move-towards-a-global-gold-standard/'>http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/04/23/970271/the-unwitting-move-towards-a-global-gold-standard/
think you need a login so c and p below:
The unwitting move towards a global gold standard
Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Apr 23 12:39.
Professor Lew Spellman, from the McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas at Austin, has an interesting new post out on the changing role of gold in the global economy.
It relates to the notion that a shortage of safe assets may be driving an epic hunt for “safe collateral” — driving down yields on traditional fixed-income investments — because there are more debt liabilities/obligations than safe collateral in the system.
In a zero-yielding environment like this, he believes gold begins to look remarkably attractive. This is especially the case if gold remains a liquid store of value, which is widely accepted as collateral across the system. What’s more, there’s little to differentiate it from a zero-yielding Treasury bond. In fact, the Treasury bond eventually expires, while gold doesn’t.
As Spellman explains:
Hence, the great corollary of over indebtedness is the relative scarcity of good collateral to support the debt load outstanding. This imbalance of debt to collateral is impacting the ability of banks to make loans to their customers, for central banks to make loans to commercial banks, and for shadow banks to be funded by the overnight Repo market. Hence the growth of gold as a collateral asset to debt heavy markets is inevitably in the cards and is de facto occurring. Gold is stepping up to the plate as “good” collateral in a world of bad collateral.
What does this tell us about what’s happening to the global financial system?
In Spellman’s opinion, it seems to indicate that the market may unwittingly be moving towards a collateral-backed global currency (of its own accord). Possibly, even, a new gold standard altogether:
What we are witnessing is a sea change in which market forces are driving a de facto return to the gold standard. All that is missing for this to be a de jure gold standard is some regulatory and legal recognition and one has been proposed. The Basel Committee for Bank Supervision, the maker of global capital requirements is studying making gold a bank capital Tier 1 asset.
Which foretells the following for gold:
The world has gravitated from one gold-backed paper currency to another before, and it likely is happening again. It would depend on whether investors in liquid, default-free, inflation-free paper prefer gold-backed Chinese Yuan to Swiss warehouse receipts or deposits from large international banks with large gold positions that operate with lots of leverage. This is a market choice that will determine the gold linked paper store of value, but the point is that all the paper contenders derive value from the gold backing, and thereby expands the demand for the shiny metal. This is the new calculus of gold. This state of affairs is likely to remain until developed world governments no longer reach for the unreachable and pressure their central banks to finance it.
At FT Alphaville we’ve played around with the idea of a global mind-meld towards the re-collateralisation of the system’s liabilities before. It’s a theory that we would say explains a lot. Though the best way to think about it really is like a giant game of musical chairs. While the music is playing, nobody cares about there being a lack of chairs. Probability wise, the impression is that almost everyone will be able to get a chair if and when the music stops.
But what happens when the music stops and there are far fewer chairs than anyone expected…? (And when the probability of winding up with no chair next time round is much higher than originally expected?) In that scenario participants begin to “eye” their potential seats ever more closely. Anyone with a stake in the game might even choose to reserve a seat by paying off fellow participants.
That process of reserving a seat thus echoes the collateralisation that’s going on today. Collateralisation equals the location and identification of real-world assets against which existing financial claims can be satisfied. If there’s a lack of acceptable assets in the system versus outstanding claims — the stakes in the financial version of musical chairs rise significantly. As does the cost of reserving a seat, a fact which manifests in the real world as negative yields.
See why ‘the debt-to-safe asset ratio’ may be worth paying attention to?
Related links:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/04/23/970271/the-unwitting-move-towards-a-global-gold-standard/
But the current price decline is not reflecting the above.
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Nothing surprising in that article - my understanding is that he is saying that negative real interest rates cause gold to rise and positive real interest rates cause gold to fall - when real interest rates go +ve I and I have no doubt others will look for better "yield" perhaps away from gold.
The question is when that will be - According to his table, based on official UK CPI figure (if you believe that) interest rates would need to be above around 5-6% nominal to start affecting gold. Do you genuinely believe that IR's are going back to anything like that soon, given the BOE (and the Fed) seem committed to use thin money printing to surpress them as long as need be and if they did rise that high it would almost certainly cause property prices to fall, thereby creating new "yielding" opportunities.
If and when there is a genuine "recovery" (i.e. debt paid or written off to allow productive investment) I hope I'm smart enough to be amongst the first to start looking for new opportunities - sadly I dont see that happening anytime soon given the debt problems and the appetite for bailouts.
That is the golden question will interest rates rise? I believe eventually interest rates will have no choice but to rise. When you say a "genuine recovery" do you mean reinstating the credit party? Economic recoveries can come in many forms perhaps more so through direct investing rather that speculative investing.
For example http://www.zerohedge.com/news/birth-barter-how-one-greek-town-dropped-euro-and-moved there is a video how a small town in Greece has moved on beyond the Euro.
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Well to keep the balance there also needs to some counter debate, as for so long gold has done well since 2001. But now I think its time to revisit the reasons for investing in GOLD.
Gold is not an investment but a speculative asset! Yes totally agree, yes I know there are many supporting arguments regarding Gold, but time and time over I look at gold at face value and I really cannot see merit other than jewelry and high end electronic components . If I purchase gold, then whats next? Oh I hold it like some hoarder. I think shit, it needs to be stored in a safe secure location.Does that come at a cost? In my way of thinking hoarding is almost criminal like, its like some dam holding back water preventing those downstream from the benefits and opportunities. Then to add the speculation.
below is excerpt from http://www.getmoneyrich.com/gold-is-not-an-investment-but-a-speculative-asset/ There are some compelling counter debate/s there for consideration.
So for all those gold fanatics, have a watchful eye on the recovery process of America. The dollar gets stronger (with increase of risk free rates) the gold prices would tumble. At that time you will no other option than either to sell or hoard. In case you sell it is ok but in case you decode to hold, remember what we told you, gold generates not cash flows like stocks, real estate…
As gold does not produce any cash flow, hence it is not possible to estimate a right value of gold. But gold for sure generates a negative cash flow in terms of its storage cost. The value of gold can only be determined by that value that a buyer is agreeing to pay at the time of buying. This is the reason why we call gold as a speculative investment.
There are some compelling counter debate at the above link
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I do WONDER a bit, what the old traditional "gold purists" who used to overwhelm GEI with pro-Gold posts are thinking now?[/b]
If they are shy and feeling like they are "licking their wounds", then very possibily the low has arrived.
Okay I will bite.... the "gold purists" are elsewhere gathered forecasting the coming hyper-inflation, rockets - gold $24,000US per/oz and the coming collapse of paper currency system. I think gold has reached a plateau with nowhere to really go. I also think investors are seeking income generating assets, and gold is not one of them.
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I don't completely agree with him, or I would be selling down some of my Gold positions.
But I shall remain alert to mores signs of an emerging markets slowdown
Another thing his colleague said to me was:
"Goldman has just come out recommending a puchase of Gold and Gold share,
and you know what that means..."
(A Bull call by MS - on its own - would be less a "kiss of death" than a Gold Bull call by GS.)
Well, things are really starting to slow down here, and mining seems to have plateaued.
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Interesting.
I rate Coxe, and so not see him as a Perma-bull on Gold
Recent data from down here regarding gold mines is production is down. Does that mean demand for gold is down or the availability is down?
http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/256696/20111127/australian-q3-gold-production-66-tons-survey.htm
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We have entered the most favourable era for gold prices in our lifetime, and the share prices of the great mining companies will eventually outperform bullion prices...central banks are printing money and creating liquidity beyond the forecasts of all but the most paranoid goldbugs a year ago
Don Coxe, Strategy Advisor BMO (Bank of Montreal) Financial Group
When I hear or read articles or public statements like this, to me it is usually a sign to exit.
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coins which are legal tender (sovereigns and britannias) are exempt from CGT - everything else isn't.
Interesting, so you can use these coins to purchase goods say in your local grocer?
I am still investigating our tax regulations relating to hoarding gold.
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Just a question, for the physical hoarders, do you have to pay capital gains tax on your holdings?
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This story has poked it's head up again. I was reading this http://www.zerohedge.com/news/tungsten-filled-1-kilo-gold-bar-found-uk on zerohedge.
It makes you wonder what is really going here. Tungsten filled gold? The article is compelling although I do take a lot of what is presented on that site with a pinch of salt.
The pictures though tell another story, and how much of this practice goes on?
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The amount of gold doesn't really matter. Because the rate at which currencies are fixed to it [the price] is completely arbitrary. I doubt a gold standard would halt a grinding deflation in asset prices, but it would halt monetary chaos and economic implosion. What's important is the rate at which currencies are fixed to each-other. International trade can then be stabilized on stable currencies and exchange rates.
The price of gold could be capped/ fixed where the market takes it. I think government would step in before the 'manic phase'. Also, I don't see why governments wouldn't keep some form of fractional reserve even with a standard. If it all came to this, banks most probably will have become more regulated. Mind you, debt might have become a dirty word for a generation, which would see asset prices grind down. If the baby boomers finally panicked and started selling, there would be the property crash.
I am somewhat confused here, I was under the belief that the amount of gold regulated the amount of currency available. Was this not the reason we moved away from the gold standard and moved to the asset based model we have now? But yes I could be wrong though.
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Actually, the argument for a recourse to gold is based primarily on instability at the international level. As I've argued earlier, gold is the strongest symbol of money which cuts across the various cultures of developed economies. I think 'something new' or novel will be rejected simply because the attempt at a purely scientific currency [Friedmanism] would have been seen to fail by then. With the failure of theory, it's likely that economists will also be discredited. Government, in that situation, will look pragmatically for something which can work and function relatively well in the face of increasing instability.
The other thing with a proper gold standard, an international one, is the practical balancing mechanism it can provide for trade. Resorting to gold's balancing mechanism is an obvious choice for governments when you consider that it was the massive build up of trade imbalance which has endangered the global economy in the first place.
Here's a good solid British empiricist on the subject:
So really its better to play with the devil you know than the one you do not. I can see your point has merit regarding instability at the international level. But is there enough gold in existence considering the current spot price to be able to support such an attempt for a recourse back to a gold standard internationally? At this point I have no idea and is beyond my understanding. Thanks again for your response.
UK House prices: News & Views
in NEWS Commentary, 2021 & Beyond
Posted
how rude! to suck foreign investors to buy poor property investments to prop up values? How sad you are to encourage foreign funds to support your failing real estate market to prop up values. What scum you are! What morals do you have?
UK is a shithole full of bastards I hope Europe drags you scumbags into reality!