BlackPepper

But I don't see it playing out like this. The potential problem facing the major currencies today, and on a global stage, is not their depreciation but their appreciation against financial assets [even if real consumables simultaneously become more expensive]. A forseeable disaster for markets and economies is capital flight out of assets into currencies, and then further and increasingly out of currencies into gold; gold being the prime form of liquidity.

 

In this situation government would be forced to step in and fix the currency to gold/ gold to currency. This may even see gold capped at where the market has taken it. If government didn't intervene, the free market could see economies implode with mass unemployment.

I pondered for a time thinking about what you said, and was considering whether there would be a unified cooperation on a global stage? But I feel this would have a real negative impact on various currencies and economies. Gold would be better used as some sort of wealth erosion insurance protection rather than using the old gold standard regime. Once confidence returns to paper currencies, the rush into gold will evaporate. What is needed is something completely new. Not a re-visit to a system that also failed.

 

 

If paper did collapse, government would then have no choice but to somehow resort to gold as a monetary measure. But once again this only shows that gold is not 'being valued', but is that which does the valuing. Gold, and currencies then fixed to it, or some version of fractional reserve, would then price things. What prices would be, would then no doubt rely on the quantity of money available, and how high the liquidity preference remained.

In the case of Argentina (when it defaulted some years back), did not the government of the day re-issued a new paper currency and pegged it equal to the then USD?

If then as you said regarding paper collapsing, gold would have to be pinned to a fixed value, and be void from speculation.

1] 'Real' value, in monetary terms, is utterly arbitary and contingent. There is no absolute benchmark, it's all relative. Then think of a balancing see-saw. At times of monetary/ credit expansion, asset prices inflate/ appreciate. Then when the reaction sets in, in times of monetary contraction, the currency in turn inflates/ appreciates. Nothing is fixed, and the dynamic, one way or the other, determines what will relatively increase or decrease in monetary value.

 

2] With currencies themselves caught up in a global economy in flux, where currencies themselves are playthings of international investors, gold enters the frame as the strongest/ heaviest symbolic form of money [currency]. In this global context, the monetary worth of both assets and currencies should be determined relative to the primal currency of gold. In this sense we are not quite so rational and scientific as we like to think. Watch how the world plays the actual game not how it thinks.

Not disagreeing with the above, but is not gold's value measured against currency? If paper currency were to collapse as some suggest, how would you measure gold's value? And furthermore, will there still be a buyer?

A THOUGHTFUL NOTE on Gold Prices follows.

 

It says Gold is still a hold, and may be a good Buy, clsoer to key support at $1500:

So my question is now what do we use to measure real value?

Thanx. Silver up to 29.60. Would like to see it around the mid 30s before breathing a little easier. Probably then a sloooow climb towards 50 over the next year or so... then hopefully another explosive move to 100. My target for selling.

Dream on it will not happen.........nations require resources not speculated silver spoons

"How much was mined... where and when?"

I don't think that works.

If you pick up a bar randomly, it will be very hard to know where it comes from, and when it was mined. Also, I think you will find that all the most "interesting" gold will remain secret and hidden.

 

There are some examples of statistical techniques used in mainstream estimates on my Fringe thread:

 

 

 

But I think these estimates are full of holes, as the Thunder Road paper has pointed out.

Hi

with goldbugs anything that threats their faith, is heresy, however gold has performed well although it does not pay a reward for holding/s, besides capital gain, the reward is crap unless you cash in. Now that gold is heading south in value one has to question regardless of hedge protection against currencies (forgive my grammar) gold is/or poor as an investment class as it does not pay a dividend. this issue of hyper-inflation is bullshit, it will not happen look at Australia, tell me where it will occur?

Silver falls 9.5 pct in 2011, first loss in 3 years

 

31 Dec, 2011, 01.52AM IST,

 

NEW YORK: Silver logged its first annual loss in three years on Friday, backtracking from a near-doubling in price during 2010, as worries about the global economy and a recent slide in gold hurt demand.

 

US March silver futures on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled up 2.2 percent from the previous day at $27.915, ending the year on a positive note as the metal followed gold's rally.

 

But the silver price was down 9.5 percent from the end of 2010, when it closed at $30.86 an ounce.

 

Silver prices plummeted shortly after they rallied to a record high of near $50 an ounce in early May, sparking the so-called commodities flash crash.

 

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/silver-falls-9-5-pct-in-2011-first-loss-in-3-years/articleshow/11309902.cms

mate! this is buy buy signal, underwater investments are the trend now!

Why not start a new thread on it?

 

 

Why? This thread is about GOLD so really I would of thought it was open to all discussions/questions relating to GOLD is up for grabs. Lets take GOLD on face value without the speculation and you will clearly admit GOLD has not hit the targets boasted by the multitude of GOLD cheeleader sites.

So far the advice on this thread regarding buy and hold does not stack up. The whole point of hoarding GOLD is to support vested interests by limiting the local supply, and forcing up market values. Yes I know you have ingrained response that is clearly echoed all over the internet, about GOLD will be the last man standing that represents a safe haven of wealth. So why then is Gold being sold off to prop up other failing asset classes? Well perhaps GOLD is not an income producing asset? So if we all bought gold and buried in the ground how would this help the economies?

Talk about conspiracies........ Ooh maybe the chosen few will reap the golden Nirvana.............

Silver futures - February 2011 to present;

 

Bix Weir's $6000 silver call looks even more ridiculous today, never mind at the top, if we take another excursion to the downside how long are the "Silver Liberation Army" going to wait for $50 again?

 

Have we seen a 31 year double top in Silver?

I think Silver is becoming Gold's ugly sister.

No, because the crisis is not impending, we're in it! A fiat money crisis goes through several stages - not necessarily through all if the politicos and banksters get their act together (which I won't think they'll be able to do this time). Two important bigger stages are: (1) paper money loses property of being store of value, (2) paper money loses property of being means of exchange. (1) means impoverishment of many, which is tragic for them, but not necessarily for you. (2) means breakdown of the economy and hence society, which usually is a problem for everyone. Both of these come gradually, and we are definitely still in the middle of phase 1. The smart money has understood already (because they grasp the concept of negative real interest etc. and gold's monetary function) while J6P will watch total destruction of his wealth before truly understanding. Phase 2 is clearly not here yet, as there is no problem yet with the, say, 1-week period it takes you to convert bullion into cash, move it around the globe, and pay a bill. Once you lose a greater percentage of your wealth during that transfer, we're deep in phase 2, and the real breakdown starts. Then it is that you'll better have some gold bullion on hand. Still you want larger amounts to be safe, and not near the rubble.

Yes thanks again, totally appreciate your insight,

Keep this up, and I will be singing the same tune!

The wealthy dynasties' gold had to be dug out of the ground at some point. The historical and archaeological record seems to suggest that they managed to dig out relatively little.

 

Gold won't help you during social breakdown. Neither will your pension, premium bonds or BP shares. That's not why any sane 'gold bug' buys gold and it's a really strange argument to make. I always wonder what the sceptic's point is when they make it.

Yes Agree, gold had to be dug out at some point, and the amount reflected in historical data does suggest very little but that does not really prove that there was not much gold in existence as per population, but yes a valid point. There is a lot of nonsense floating around on the internet, but there must be some motivation for doing so. It's great to see strong debate. But I don't think gold is a scarce as some would like you to believe. Rumours of rumours based on fear distorts price.

I have read many Goldbug theories/prophecies and some are very sane and some not. There are those who like to hoard gold as a protection against possible wealth errosion on the assumption or belief of a hyper-inflationary outcome where fiat/paper currency will become almost worthless. But I am sitting in the deflation camp unless otherwise convinced.

No evidence to support theory = "they" are suppressing it!

Evidence disproving your theory = "they" are hoaxing it, don't believe what you read, "they would say that..."

 

It's genius really.

 

Annoyingly, it only serves to detract from the genuinely interesting areas of discussion.

Yes annoyingly biased areas of discussion, and easily irritated when someone goes against the tide of belief.

I have an open mind like the sky I see daily big and blue.

No one has the exact numbers. But to me it makes a lot of sense that most gold was produced in modern times. Peak oil will mean peak gold IMHO. Also, that someone holds gold for the past 200 years (a very old someone indeed!) and now in the biggest paper money crisis ever will suddenly show up and dump it all at once is the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard. It is right up there with lizzard men, Elvis being alive and Michael Jackson being an alien (although, I regard the latter two as more likely :lol:). Even funnier that there are people who believe such things but don't acknowledge how central banksters and bullion banksters mess around with gold.

Yes totally agree with your sentiments, I think where you and I have our differences in reference to gold prior to the 1800's is there is no true accounting as regards to the existing gold not gold that is being produced. You really would not know if wealthy Dynasty's hoarded private stashes prior to the reference point 1800. So perhaps it is not so far fetched as you think

Okay but doesn't the goldbug prophecies regarding the impending "paper money crisis" sound just as rediculous as anything else you get on the net? I mean imagine say you lived in the UK (hey I am citizen of that cold miserable shithole) with a population that is unable to produce enough food to feed itself, then the paper currencies collapse, people panic, how are you going to survive? The last performance we saw on TV when they started to implement mild austerity measures the population set the place on fire and looted the place silly. Imagine that on a grand scale! Or do you feel that everyone will act civilized and you will able to walk down to the market and say "I say old Chap, you willing to trade some gold for that bread?"

7 billion people with cheap fuel and lots of machines can do much more prospecting and digging than 1 billion who have nothing but wooden shovels and mules.

 

Yes thanks thats really great I appreciate your response, but the original question was about how much gold was really in existence prior to the 1800's, besides European accounting totals. Like anything else many businesses have a habit of not disclosing or being truly transparent when it comes to holdings of wealth profits...to avoid paying taxes etc, and furthermore in your own very words about dishonest bankers etc, so to add what makes you think they were transparently honest back in the 1800's?

I am aware you believe gold will continue to rise as it is speculated as to be a true safe haven and when and if due to hyper-infaltionary forces it will not be subject to high valuation loss. You could be right about this, and I do not dispute that, but I personally feel there is something not quite right about all of this, and that is only reason why I am at present bothering to question you as you appear to possess the strongest motivation in this scenario.

BTW I am not in the Wilcock or Fulford camp or for that matter take the likes of David Icke seriously at all, but it does make interesting reading when I am bored.

Oh dude, nothing is strange about this. Nearly everything was at zero back in 1800 when measured in relative terms. We don't want to ignore 200 years of industrialization (incl. the 1849/90 gold rushes etc.), the advent of cheap fossile energy and the population explosion, or do we?

 

EDIT: In contrary to green lizzard men, huge amounts of secret gold, and the end of the world in 2012, the facts that I mentioned above are well-documented and contain no major logical flaws.

Why? Who said? What is the relevence to the question of the accounting of gold after the 1800's?

Better to trade silver which is more volatile. Or even better, stay long gold, and trade silver as a hedge.

 

Staying long gold these past 4 years, doubled my liquid worth, and then enabled me to purchase property with half my liquid worth. Free free-hold property anyone?

Actually yes, I purchased a 3 bedroom dump near Cairns QLD for $46k in 2001 and sold it recently for $295k and during that time the rents covered the holding costs.

I agree with you.

 

But if you look at the estimates of the amount of Gold that exists, they seem to start with a figure near to zero in 1800 or so.

Yes it is strange that from offical accounting estimates there was a near to zero figure considering gold coins at that time were circulating as a form of currency.

I'm still waiting to see some evidence presented for the historical abundance of gold and its ease of discovery and production.

Aztecs in more recent times comes to mind, and they also did not have in possession current day technology to mine gold. History records that most of the gold that was pillaged was melted down.

http://www.aztec-history.com/aztec-jewelry.html

And all this carry on was before the 1800's.

In Australia during the gold rush, you can still evidence of shallow mines in various places, where much surface gold was extracted.

http://www.kidcyber.com.au/topics/gold.htm

http://www.finders.com.au/gold-pages/central-victorian-goldfields/the-golden-triangle/

These are only examples of recent times........

Also throws up all sorts of interesting astrophysical and geological questions regarding the formation of the stuff in the first place. Also, gold mining is a dirty business that creates a LOT of waste material. For there to be that much more gold in circulation, it follows there would also be a huge amount of additional waste. You might be able to keep people quiet, but how do you conceal the waste from an order of magnitude more gold being mined?

I doubt it, in modern times I would generally agree where mercury is used as part of the extraction process, and you would require toxic dump areas for the used chemicals; which adds to the increased extraction costings, but in ancient times gold was mined in relatively shallow mines without the use of chemicals so evidence of ancient mines are almost non-existent as gold was clearly in more abundance and more easily atainable during our ancient ancestors times; and recorded history has displayed plenty of examples of many past kingdoms that do not exist in our current modern times did have plenty of gold, for example the Roman Empire. To add much pillaged gold from war spoils was melted down many times over and hoarded away, so it would almost be impossible to have a true census accounting of how much gold actually exists and this alone allows the speculators to create wonderful myths where so many blindly follow.

To give you an idea I have supplied a link to give you an idea of the size of these existing gold mines, and to make such an enterprise viable would require a considerable amount of gold still exisiting in the ground.

http://www.mining-technology.com/projects/lihir/

Getting "stopped out" is trader think. As a B&H, I have never been stopped out, because there is no stop first place. I watch fundamentals to decide whether I buy or sell. And fundamentals change extremely slowly it seems.

Do I sense fear in your faith GF? and more so deflation and the possible future austerity in the Eurozone? As I said long ago on this very thread you should be prepared for the possible threat to loose your gold or the possible sudden devaluation of your precious and you shot me down in flames with powerful confidence it was totally mind blowing; hey no offence taken I admire such faith/gamble/bets/speculations, it reminds of that fellow who sells that rapture story Chuck Missler. Even the host of this web site gave many insights to the shakey nature of this belief without insult, and many here in their arrogance accused the host of heresy for simply presenting alternatives.

I ask why are Goldbugs rude know it all wankers? Why are Goldbugs happy to trample down anything that goes against their cheerleaders? When they also speculate regarding future outcomes...................

I could be wrong I could be right

I could be wrong I could be right

I could be wrong I could be right

I could be black I could be white

I could be black I could be white

I could be white I could be black

Your time has come your second skin

The cost so high the gain so low

Walk through the valley

The written word is a lie

This is the biggest news for the POG for years.

 

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-rehypotecation-unwind-begins-hsbc-sues-mf-global-over-disputed-ownership-physical-gold

Well if you are NOT actually holding the precious in your hot little hands your gold could be long gone! Gold may plummet now that confidence is being ripped out. Although you have to give credit where credit is due the goldbugs have been saying you gotta hold the physical in your hot little hands.

From GoldSilver.com - "Currently, there is only enough investment-grade gold available on Earth for every living person to have 1/3rd of an ounce." and ".. there is only enough investment-grade silver on Earth for every person to have 1/14th of an ounce."

Anyone for cash?

Regarding the links below, just remember also that as the date moves forward so does the population of the world increase and thus so does the reporting of extreme events that would previously have gone unnoticed... so one expects more reportage of events the more recent they are, but a simple calculation relating the rate of occurrences to the population of the time shows that the actual rate is virtually unchanged.

However, still one should not stop from being alert as you never know as one thing is certain and that is change........

http://www.c3headlines.com/bad-stuff-happens.html

Spot gold eased 0.04 per cent to $US1692.09 an ounce

Bullion struck a record of around $US1920 in September

Hmm I dunno, charts mean very little to me and price does. If I bought in September I would be at a loss and that is fact. Confidence in the precious looks a little shakey. Having said that perhaps we have seen the top and now it will stagnate around its current price range, and this is all speculation by the way. I did remember some funny calls here about gold will be @$5000US an ounce back in 2009 anytime soon.......still waiting

I would've thought gold is being sold because it's liquid globally.

 

Can you spend your BP shares in Tesco? Or gilts, US Dollars or your ISA bank statement for that matter?

Actually you answered your own question and yes I can spend US Dollars almost anywhere as there are always plenty of takers for it. Gold on the other hand will be much harder to sell, since the spot price now seems to trending south.

Some interesting gold/economy charts. Provided as is - not trying to start an argument. Make of them what you will (I like the last 3 in particular).

 

Taken from http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-gold-still-answer-investors

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think gold is being sold off to prop up other assets thus given, and gold is not liquid globally. For example I can't exhange my gold at the local supermarket to buy food. So I would have to sell the gold first and turn into cash before I could spend it at the local supermarket.