emel

You bought near the bottom of the consolidating phase, so there was always a good chance, given the volatility, that the price would continue to consolidate in the short term. It is in the medium/ long term that confidence is more well-placed towards an increase in the price [assuming silver/ gold is in a bull market]. When silver strengthens again, the short term paper loss will be eaten up very quickly. Stick with it.

Yeah, i will. My long term physical (Goldmoney) strategy is unchanged. It's just my shorter term AGQ plans which will need to evolve. Nice graph by the way, puts things into perspective well.

The selling is running out of steam. Look closely. The very last low was on LIGHT volume.

The selling may be done. And if Gold rises, so should Silver, and the silver etfs.

I certainly hope so, the recent activity in AGQ has been brutal. It is certainly not for the faint-hearted. The only positive was that I was on vacation for a lot of it, so wasn't paying attention to the blood bath every day.

Right now, my original plan to exit my position in mid-Feb is pretty much in tatters. I was expecting the well-established seasonality in the PM markets to be the main driver. This doesn't seem to be the case. However, this recent activity doesn't affect my belief in the long term fundamentals, and I will begin buying again this week.

Longer term, my big worry is now that I will need these funds later this year as a down-payment for a house. I have a feeling I will miss out on the main action in the next couple of years.

It was certainly an eventful today. So, with QE3 announced, how high is this going to go? I see this double-whammy of seemingly infinite QE and the traditional seasonality in PMs to be very, very exciting.

I now see us entering a phase of steady appreciation until mid Feb, with the occasional mini-smackdown to keep us on our toes. I've said before I was targeting 70, but this ETF certainly moves quickly - I now think that will be reached within weeks. 80 by the end of year is possible, 90 by mid Feb (end of favourable PM seasonality).

Longer term than that, I think the patient will be further rewarded. Eventually I expect some form of regional credit event or restructuring,to contribute to a spike. I don't know what form this will take, but they will be no doubt when it happens.

I'm really not sure about your target of 600, but I agree that we've recently had a good entry point. I bought on Friday at a price of $52.86. I decided to buy based on a belief that QE3 will push the price of silver/gold up (I also hold physical), and various SMA charts suggested a low was approaching. I got a nice move up after purchase on Friday and on Monday, while it fell back a bit today. I'm happy with the timing, and my target is only around 70. I'm not expecting to hold for long, but as always, things can change. I'm playing with money inside my "trading account" here, it's a relatively small amount and I'm happy to take on more risk than my other portfolios.

Well, this AGQ trade didn't play out how I expected, but I think we are finally on track. I suppose I was silly to ignore silver's seasonality. However, when AGQ dipped, I was able to buy a lot more in the $35-$40 range, averaging down substantially. I'm now 20% up, and bullish. I'm still targeting 70, but we will see. I have quite a lot tied up with this trade, thankfully, I can't see anything that appeals to me more.

 

 

Close enough to 50, so have bought with the last of my earmarked funds.

 

 

I've now pretty much exposed to precious metals with all my liquid worth, with this trade balanced against core gold. Will be keen to reduce a lot of that exposure on the next silver spike. Target of 600 odd in two years or so.

I'm really not sure about your target of 600, but I agree that we've recently had a good entry point. I bought on Friday at a price of $52.86. I decided to buy based on a belief that QE3 will push the price of silver/gold up (I also hold physical), and various SMA charts suggested a low was approaching. I got a nice move up after purchase on Friday and on Monday, while it fell back a bit today. I'm happy with the timing, and my target is only around 70. I'm not expecting to hold for long, but as always, things can change. I'm playing with money inside my "trading account" here, it's a relatively small amount and I'm happy to take on more risk than my other portfolios.

Thanx. Silver up to 29.60. Would like to see it around the mid 30s before breathing a little easier. Probably then a sloooow climb towards 50 over the next year or so... then hopefully another explosive move to 100. My target for selling.

Well, the double-leverage ETF will make any retracement a bit more exciting for you, but so far so good. In fact, you may have demonstrated excellent timing with your ballsy move.

I think 50 by the end of the year is perfectly possible, but I'm not sure if we'll see 100 for a very long time. I'm happy to be proven wrong, but feel if we see it in the next few years, it will be after some extreme volatility, by which time things will be too hot for me and I'll be in gold or even cash. My target for selling is 65 within 2 years, I'd also start swapping to gold if the g:s ratio looks favourable again (around 40).

Wow, silver through the 27 barrier. My heavy buy order [AGQ at 40] was hit overnight. Will consider freeing up a little more bullion to buy a little more of this instrument in the next few weeks. 25 looks on the cards now, which is a 50% retracement, which would reflect the 2008 retracement from 20 to 10.

An excellent trade, congratulations.

After playing the gold:silver ratio game earlier this year, I have been steadily accumulating silver again - since the crash at the start of May. I felt pretty happy about buying it at below $35, but stopped in the last couple of weeks as we closed in on $40. I expected silver to follow more gold closely, but they seem to have diverged more than I expected. Looking at the charts and current price, I think I would have been better off buying gold actually, although marginally so. And this could quickly change.

The ratio has increased to around 46 now, so I'm happy to recommence buying silver. I don't know yet what my target ratio is for swapping to gold, or when this will happen, but I'm sure we'll get there eventually.

I have just swapped a smaller amount of gold for silver. That way I have converted silver bullion into more silver bullion over the past days, while staying fully invested in the precious metals bull and in non-paper assets. I would swap again at 50:1 and at 60:1, but I fear it won't happen and maybe that was it already and we're back to the races.

Very nice indeed. I played the silver to gold game too. I swapped a total of 60% of my silver in three equal(ish) tranches at ratios of 40 (yeah, too early I know), 31 and 32. I would have liked to have swapped more, but things moved faster than I expected, I even missed my chance to swap at 30.5 as I was in a meeting at work and people kept expecting for me to contribute, rather than stare at my laptop - damn them! Anyway, I'm happy overall.

I may follow your lead here, and swap some back at this ratio. I'm not as bullish as some here about PMs, but I worry about dollar devaluation and as i earn in $US, I like to spread my risk. Having said that, I do believe there is the potential for the emotional aspect of a bubble economy to send the price of PMs rocketing to very high, never-seen-before levels. We're just waiting for a large shock event - it may be the restructure of the euro, it may be another global recession when the printing presses stop. I don't know. I just know I'd rather be holding PMs if (*cough* when) it does happen.

I will continue buying silver regularly, keeping my eye on favourable ratios (>35) to swap to gold. I still favour silver over gold right now.

GSR now 36.85, well done on this call GF.

An amazing call. And one I didn't quite think would play out like it has so far. My original plan was to start swapping Gold to Silver from ratio 40 down to 35. I started this at 40, but with things moving so quickly, I've cooled my jets. I now believe we will definitely see 30, maybe even 25. I see a greater potential for growth in Silver rather then Gold right now.

I think that makes the G/S ratio 40.2.

Switching 10% of my silver to gold. Next stop 39?

P.S. Another thanks for the graphs.

Just to put expectations of a lower ratio in a more historic context:

Ah! Many thanks, this longer-term view certainly suggests that below 40 and much, much further is perfectly possible. I'm keeping an open mind on this and looking forward to seeing how it plays out. Just happy to have built up sizable holdings (for me) in PMs over the last few years.

Gold:Silver now below 45.

Interesting stuff. For about the last 18 months, I've been buying silver through Goldmoney with a view to switch this to gold when the G:S ratio is more favourable. In some ways, I see this as "banking" my gains in silver.

However, I'm not sure I can hold out to a G:S 35 as possibly suggested by GF's graph, I just don't see it spiking that low. I'm going to keep a very close eye on this and will begin banking at 43. I'll be happy if it reaches 40, but will begin buying gold again.