God Bear

It is the same in Australia

 

 

I can never comprehend this love of debt

 

 

People want more debt, more and more

 

 

There is too much of it already

 

 

People aren't prepared for peak debt and they should be

 

 

Debt is the worlds greatest bubble

Hello Peak Debt

No, the figures will work to the bears' advantage. Nov10/Dec10/Jan11 will need to match the monthly increases of last year just to keep the YoY figure flat. Eg, if there is no rise at all in house prices in the next 3 months, then we will look something like this:

 

 

Jan 2010/ 169,484

...

Oct 2010 164,990

...

Jan 2011/ 164,990 (hypothetical)

 

 

 

Jan 2010 - Jan 2011 YoY = -2.65%

I understand now.

I thought you meant something different when you wrote

As these months fall out of the Halifax YoY figures in the next few months

I thought ' fall out' would mean 'removed'. i.e. we are looking at Feb 2010

Anyway, I think it’s fair to say the Halifax figures at the backend of 2009 were surprisingly high. This was possibly caused by the Stamp Duty holiday, but at the same time it could also have been caused by the mix adjustment method used by Halifax. Given that we don’t actually see the ‘mix’ we can’t verify that the method is being applied properly. This means that Halifax could* adjust the mix to give them the best Christmas bonuses. Don’t be surprised to see some shockingly high figures again.

* In theory only. I’d never accuse them of actually tweaking the figures to suit their bonus requirements.

Nov 2009/ 167,451

Dec 2009/ 168,763

Jan 2010/ 169,484

 

 

As these months fall out of the Halifax YoY figures in the next few months, this index will be turning a nice deep shade of RED!!

I believe you have misunderstood by 180 degrees.

In Feb 2011, the three bigger numbers fall out as you have pointed out. However, this give us the smaller Feb 2010 figure for our new YoY calculation. This plays in to the hands of the housing bulls.

Apologies in advance if it is ME who has misunderstood by a number of degrees and I will be grateful if you could point this out to me.

I believe you have made an error.

The 2 quotes I have picked out below are not consistent. How can a higher MoM make the YoY smaller?

Apologies in advance if it is ME who has made the error and I will be grateful if you could point this out to me.

- Oct-Nov 2009 was 0.45%, even if this month's figures are completely flat, this will bring YoY down below 1%.

i.e. If MoM = 0%, YoY will be below 1%

- Any MoM reading below 1% will bring the YoY% below zero!

i.e if Mom = 0.5%, YoY will be below 0%