Traineeinvestor

COMEX gold inventory decline:

http://www.24hgold.com/english/interactive_chart.aspx?title=COMEX%20WAREHOUSES%20REGISTERED%20GOLD&etfcode=COMEX%20WAREHOUSES%20REGISTERED&etfcodecom=GOLD

An interesting piece of speculation from a Forbes columnist: http://www.forbes.com/sites/cedricmuhammad/2013/11/01/the-worlds-next-gold-standard-will-come-through-china-and-africa-not-america/

"I believe by this decade’s end we’ll see a gold-backed currency in Africa in one of three ways- through a common market optimal currency area; a series of regional parallel currency regimes which will lead to single currency; or through a local gold-backed currency which becomes so attractive in a multi-currency environment that it compels regional and continental embrace."

FWIW:

1. I have recently renewed a lease for about a 2% reduction in rent from two years ago. It's probably a little below market, but still a better deal for me than having a vacancy and all the cost of getting a new tenant in. The tenant works for a bank.

2. I have another property which has been in a break period for several months now. The tenant has not made any attempt to negotiate the rent down. Based on my experience with this individual, if he thought he could get a lower rent, I am sure that he would.

Both are small flats in Mid-Levels.

Right now I am not seeing any pressure on rents in either direction - but this is a very small sample size.

 

/ FROM an AX thread :

http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property/threads/151878/hk-developers-game:-cut-prices?/

 

Developers LURE Buyers into paying more with tricks

SCMP article - by Sandy Li

"SHKP's offer to subsidize stamp duty for buyers of The Cullinan was a slick manoevre"

She goes on to chronicle the steps used by SHKP to materialise strong demand in a once-quiet market.

Stamp Duty subsidy "instantly made headlines... was widely reported that the incentives plus the discount effectively translated a 20 per cent to 40 per cent discount... Result: more than 2,000 buyers signed up for the first 60 units."

She goes on to report that actual listed prices rose to a premium, then the incentives and rebates were cut.

Does it sound at all familiar? Of course it does.

Sandy Li wrote a good story, reporting a neat bit of clever marketing by SHKP.

I sent her an email recently, and suggested she take a look at this thread. If that helped her to track the complex figures involved in SHKP's strategy - then: Great.

WE need plenty of eyes on this market, and good reporting - to understand how a once simple market now operates in a time of government-imposed manipulations.

Good on you, Sandy Li!

 

Agree. It would be much easier for potential buyers if we could easily determine the actual effective transaction prices ... but, of course, that's the one thing that the developers and agents do not want us to figure out (no different from sellers of any other products).

Incidentally, similar tactics were being used back on 2002/2003 to sell properties - with "free" furniture packages, zero percent second mortgages and so on being offered in lieu of price discounts.

For may part, I am hoping that we see prices of HK property fall enough to make them attractive buying again. It will hurt my balance sheet in the short term but help it in the longer term.

Given the strength of household balance sheets in HK generally, a 30% fall from current levels (as forecast by CIMB) will require a big jump in supply. It could happen, but I am doubtful rather than hopeful. Given that I expect (a complete guess) it to be at least a couple of years before we hit bottom, I'm actually considering paying off a mortgage to improve my cash flow instead of just sitting on cash?

I agree - too soon to be buying the developers (that said, I don't see too much reason to sell either).

A question for those more knowledgable about precious metals than I am. Given the underlying commercial usage and the greater potential for supply disruption, would platinum be a better choice than gold in the longer run?

(1)

2012: When Car Parks became cash shelters

 

The Buyer's stamp duty touched off a mania for parking spaces, but now investors may find it hard navigating their way to a speculative exit

 

"Investors bought properties such as car parks without serious consideration. Now the negative impact is starting to be exposed."

 

According to some reports, investors who bought car parking spaces from developers now find it difficult to resell the properties.

 

"Today returns on office properties are pretty low. Once interest rates go up, they will get into trouble."

 

- Todays SCMP, Business: pg.2

 

 

(2)

A WORD TO TO WISE

 

... or actually a quote, from pg.7 of LuxeHomes (Ask the Expert, Jeffery Ng Chong-yip)

 

"The risk of investing in car park spaces is connected to the economy. In good times, a couple with high disposable income may want to own a car. But the car is usually the first thing to be abandoned in bad times."

 

My limited personal experience is that individual car parks in residential buildings in Hong Kong are a monumental pain in the neck to rent out (not that I would expect too many of the punters buying them to be much concerned about income).

Yep, but I'm still waiting for values to become sufficiently attractive to buy again :-(

It could be a long wait.

USD50 per oz on silver would be nice. I am still kicking myself for not selling in the high 40s last time it spiked up.

The comparison between HK and Paris you posted on 21 November is interesting. Similar prices but:

- one location is in a thriving economy with low taxation, a rapidly growing and supportive neighbour, a hard working and growing population, very low unempoyment, a sound banking system, a stable currency and an absence of anti-landlord laws and regulations

- the other is in France

Which one would you expect to do better over the longer term?

It was quite a good article (IMHO) and provides a good explanation for having a holdco discount. One the interesting things to watch is how these holdco discounts expand and contract overtime - possibly making for good trading opportunities.