Walktothewater

Just bumping this excellent post again. I would argue that the bull market has now been completely destroyed. If you still post here Walktothewater, what do you think?

 

Disagree that the bull market"completely destroyed". How do you figure this? Top at 1912 in Sept 11 hasn't even had a 50% correction, so maybe that's what's happening now, we go sub 1000 and find a bottom.

IMO either (1) this is a correction within a bull, perhaps 20yrs from 2000/01, or (2) PMs are telegraphing massive deflation across most assets dead ahead (fits in w what the Japanese did on Friday in seemingly panic), or (3) TPTB on cusp of finishing off a total alice in wonderful repression, no markets, complete central planning etc. in which case sell PMs and buy real estate

Whilst Im not happy, nor I am impressed at ALL with the chartists and technicians who shit the bed on this (when will they accept the charts are not natural market forces at work?), nothing in the last couple months has shifted me from the (1) camp. I say lets visit 900 and be done with the correction.

Likewise, I enjoy your posts GF.

I can't tell if you are being sarcastic or not. You are aware that to mine silver costs more than 25 dollars per ounce for most of the world's mines? Sell at 11 dollars?

 

 

Edit: I think it is certainly not impossible that "silver" could trade at 11 dollars at some time in the future, but it would have been as a result of multiple rapid attacks where hundreds of millions of ounces of imaginary silver are created and sold short within a couple of milliseconds to overwhelm all of the buyers and jam price down a couple of dollars in a second, and this would have to be done dozens of times. There wouldn't be a single ounce of real stuff for sale anywhere.

 

How does this have any relation to governments running sustainable budgets?

Is my point really that hard to see?

I am saying that if the TPTB manage to actually properly destroy this bull market -- as would be indicated by sustained lower prices like $11 for silver (as suggested not by me but the OP) -- then I'm suggesting we enter a full on alice-in-wonderland of financial repression. As in a full on police state of capital controls with every price rigged and zero free markets. It s a frightening prospect akin to entering some sort of Dark Ages, but it cant be ruled out IMO

Why would gold at 800 and silver at 11 mean that the debt and over

leverage problem be over? We have seen in the last couple of years

And months really, gold and silver manipulated/crashed lower. It doesn't seem hard for the manipulators to architect water - falling prices. I can see what you mean re. inoperable mines but I don't see the other parts so clearly. We have runaway stock markets ready for a fall. Maybe like in 2008/9 when gold and silver also nose dived.

I would see 11 silver as a huge opportunity to buy not the Dow but more silver/ gold. I don't see the relationship as everything fixed if we do see lows like that. Please explain.

A grind down to $800/$11 or worse and staying there for few weeks would represent massive and IMO unrecoverable technical damage. It would be an utter disaster for goldbugs. It would represent destruction of the "fundamental" case for years to come. If it happened the banksters would have other "successes" such as US bonds suppressed below 3% as far as eye can see, capital controls, bail-ins, and complete financial repression - i.e. all the present problems "solved". I'm not sure holding PMs makes any practical sense in that sort of reality. Perhaps you can buy food or stuff locally. But you really would be going hard against the grain of mainstream society. Thus probably best to go with the flow and take on a BTL mortgage etc. I think its unlikely but who knows.

$11 would be the end of this bull market. Gold would be what, $800? A few weeks at those sort of prices mean the debt and over-leverage problem is fixed, govts running sustainable budgets and new growth is providing employment and real wage growth. $11 silver would mean a definitive sell on pm's and buy the Dow, fund your pension, take out a big mortgage, etc. There wouldnt be a single mine left in operation anywhere.

How many people sell their house and buy electricity with the money?

 

The vast majority of people buy a house to live in. The only factors they are interested in are:

 

What they earn

How much their mortgage is

Whether general inflation makes it harder for them to pay their mortgage

 

Whether their house price has gone down in nominal terms or in terms of how many ounces of gold you would need to buy it is of no interest whatsoever.

 

Nor does the price of houses in terms of ounces of gold mean anything to anyone other than someone who sold to rent and put all their money into gold.

 

If the price of gold halved tomorrow, would you think that house prices had doubled?

 

If gas halved in price tomorrow, would you consider that house prices had been affected?

I’m not sure what your point is. Do you disagree with the data? The facts, not opinions, but the facts are this: Pounds are the currency unit of the UK. A pound from last year buys less stuff today than it did last year and will buy even less next year. I.e. their value is being diminished. Ergo the effect of nominal price falls is magnified by the falling purchasing power of the currency unit. You may indeed be spot on in your analysis of what people think or what interests them or what XYZ means to the average person. But that doesn’t alter the fact that real house prices, that is prices measured in purchasing power adjusted pounds, have fallen more than nominal.

Boy, why is this trotted out over and over again?

Because it's correct, though the 'penny hasnt dropped' yet for the average person. And i doubt it ever will. Joe Soap gets to say yeah my property is still worth X, forgetting of course that X buys far less of everything else then it did before.

In hard money terms (gold) property has well and truly crashed. But that's mumbo jumbo talk LOL...

Advice sought guys and gals:

 

I am in the process of selling a house as my role as executor. I will be a beneficiary and receive about £100k.

 

I am married and live in a rented flat with my wife who is a local authority worker - safe job earns about £40k pa. I am self-employed and earn about £30 pa. Our rent is about £500 pcm. We are both mid 40s.

 

We some savings not a lot in ISAs.

 

Have found house for sale in Cherry Tree Walk, Chesham on for £250,000 needs totally modernising ie redeck thruout, new kitchen, new bathroom and possibly a new boiler. But is habitable.

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-38585210.html

 

Am I mad to take out a circa 125-140 motgage for 15 years? Should I wait? We are in very secure cheap accommo although cramped. This house has loads of space compared to the comedy Victorian cottages with no parking that sell for same money?

Sorry, completely unrelated to your question. I just have to say how shocking UK house prices look in general. And the quality.... [i live part-time in UK, main base east Germany, for £250k you could buy a block of 6,8 or 10 flats, german size/quality, in a good area of Leipzig that puts a reliable £20-25k after expenses in your pocket from day one]

I think "investors" will need to be disciplined too.

Most Gold purists are not. They are complacent and believe they can sit on their gold holdings "no matter what." They do not use stops, and are determined to sit out any "correction" in the price.

 

You may be interested to hear Jonathan Davis' view on the Gold price. Maybe you can sit out the drop he is forecasting, but it may prove too painful for some long term gold holders.

 

I trade some, but not everyday and not every move. You can see my successful modus operandi on the old Beating B&H thread.

Whoa hold your horses, you're lumping a lot of people in together there with some pretty strong sweeping statements...

In any case, Jonathan Davis' is a UK property bear with a spotty track record, Jim Sinclair is a gold bull with an excellent track record. And you're saying the formers opinions on gold price trumps the latters?

This sort of comment amazes me.

 

I proved over many months that I could beat Buy & Hold in the Silver market,

and then I started a thread at the beginning of the Year with Gold at/near $1550, saying it was a good buying point.

"Gold Charts look Bullish as we start 2012"

 

Meantime, JS is telling people that Silver is about to shoot up to $60, just before it drops maybe $2 in a day and begins a new correction?

 

Do you love BS, or are you just pretending? You guys need to wake up and see what junk food you are feeding on. Why do you consume it? Is it an addiction of some sort?

Hang on, let's stick with gold. It's 'ramping' when it goes down, so what is it when it goes up?

You'd rather believe any old conspiracy tripe from David Wilcock and Benjamin Fulford, but you refuse to believe gold is manipulated, as is clearly shown by the 3pm smackdown. Doesn't this strike you as inconsistent? You seem to have some vengeful malice towards GATA and JS, They're essentially correct in what they're saying, the problem is there are strong opposing forces in action here, but you refuse to acknowledge them. Both GATA and JS will be proven correct in time.

Here, here. Todays drop proves nothing. Moreover, if 'ramping' is being correct about a multi-year trend like we've seen then I'm with JS and the rest, whatever you want to call them. My sitting and waiting in gold has paid off month after month for years. I'd need to be a unemployed forensic accountant to follow let alone profit from Dr Bubb's advice.

"You cannot beat B&H": what utter nonsense that has proven to be!

You are being disingenouos Dr Bubb. How much of your life do you devote to working on non-B&H investing strategies Dr Bubb? Answer: serious amounts. Versus how much time can someone with a f/t professional career devote? Answer: not even close to enough.

gold has performed well although it does not pay a reward for holding/s, besides capital gain, the reward is crap unless you cash in.

Cash in and get -5% from bank account?

I'm still waiting to see some evidence presented for the historical abundance of gold and its ease of discovery and production.

SO let me get it straight. There are vast quantities of gold hidden away by the illuminati/Rothchilds etc. Gold isn't in fact scarce, so it is really quite worthless. They are conspiring to bid up the price of gold into bubble levels, so they can dump it onto unsuspecting goldbugs. Hmmmmmm.

So what do you think, are you suggesting to offload gold now?

Marc Faber is most sensible of the lot - 25% each in gold, equities, real estate and cash/bonds. The name of the game now is to keep yourself as intact as possible. Own a safe secure property, keep your head down and stay liquid and diversified materially/financially/socially.

I really don't know what to say about Thrive, David Icke, David WIlcox, Ben Fulford, illuminati, telepathy, Aliens and Binderbergs et al. Even if any or all of this is true (tho frankly much seems highly suspicious to my mind and kinda undermines the credibility of the evidence-based ethos of this site) it is essentially unactionable information.

In any event, I for one have been accumulating gold for years. Physical, in my possession. Havent sold a single gram since first bought circa 2005. Selling now looks like 'snatching defeat from the jaws of victory'.

All IMHO of course.

The mix of rental and owned will probably go one-way, then the other, then back again, just as before.

 

one-way, then the other, back again, up, down, up again, back around the garden...

Which is it?

Either we go the whole way down a long road to eventual 'Property Apartheid' feudal serfdom, or we don't. There's no 'permanently high plateau' waiting round the corner. And if we don't continue to inflate the property market (at the expense of renters and savers) the UK banking system goes t1ts.

This is the ugly truth the bulls don't want to see.

Well yes, if you sell your house and spend all the money on bread

Leveraged players and owners are doing extremely well. And continue to do so. And renters, like savers or anyone not in debt, are being screwed to the wall in this country. [that's why it's important for the people being screwed by this system to buy gold - another story].

But I ask you, where does this end? Do we end up with a UK where everyone owns their own home, with average prices £10m, £100m £1000m or whatever. Where those that don't get 'on the ladder' are gradually forced into ever worsening rental situations/ poverty, forced out of the UK, forced into tent cities for the dispossessed, squatter camps beside Dover or Stansted for people who don't/can't own a piece of UK land, waiting to scrape the money together to escape "property Apartheid UK" ??

Of course not.

The trend will change and it will be devastating for this country. I wouldnt want to be here when the unravelling gets serious..

I could quite fancy New Zealand or Canada - possibly France or Italy - after that - I think I prefer it here.

Of course you do. You prefer UK in large part because the printing of pounds since 1970s has overwhelming benefited your generation at the expense of all those coming after. If I bought a house for a few grand years ago I’d prefer it too. You don’t accept that the another ‘half’ have to endure shuffling from one outrageously privately rented property every few years or face ridiculous mortgages precisely because of this situation you benefit from.

FYI Dines kept a buy rating on all his uranium picks right the way thru the 07-08 debacle in uranium mining shares. His portfolios were 80-90% focussed on uraniums right up to late 08. DML, PNP were, are and as far as I know have always been continuous buys according to Dines.

New subscribers circa early 07, such as myself, got hammered by taking Dines' buy ratings on face value. Quietly and without a hint of mea culpa, his portfolios are now around 60% uranium focussed.

In other words, be careful of Dines' perpetual bullishness for his picks. Someone like Doug Casey is more appropriate for those who want timing as well as stock picking as part of the advice. For example, Casey also recommends DML but does not currently have a buy rating on it.

Anyone have opinion on DML ?

 

The 3 year chart seems to suggest we are at a trendline and 252 MA

I've recently sold the last of my Uraniums - some nice returns from March buying. Which is just as well as I'm still down quite a bit overall from the debacle in 07-08.

I have a stink bid in for DML at C$1.15. Reckon that will be hit later this Autumn.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...refer=australia

"Paladin May Be ‘Attractive’ Target for Cameco, Areva", so says JP Morgan

PDN up 10%+ on ASX

Gonna hold my nose and buy a selection of Dines recommended U308 producers here, DML, PDN, LAM....

….just like to congratulate myself for bottom fishing MGA Tuesday

 

The action in the major uranium producers/resource holders yesterday (Wed Aug 13) was significant. +20% on average with huge volume. Based on my experience, the rally should continue next 1-2days. Rally in jnrs not so broad based, they may participate or not (I think they will)

I’ll take it that since I’m talking to myself here that we’ve hit a bottom in the uraniums??

Mega uranium is in lift-off mode today

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MGA.TO&am...id=p06226185237

Well here we go. I bought some Mega uranium (MGA.TO) yesterday for C$1.05...

 

Therefore.. its going to 50cents

….just like to congratulate myself for bottom fishing MGA Tuesday

The action in the major uranium producers/resource holders yesterday (Wed Aug 13) was significant. +20% on average with huge volume. Based on my experience, the rally should continue next 1-2days. Rally in jnrs not so broad based, they may participate or not (I think they will)

Uranium co's seem to have taken a spanking in the past couple of weeks, just general market sentiment or have I missed something specific?

Well here we go. I bought some Mega uranium (MGA.TO) yesterday for C$1.05...

Therefore.. its going to 50cents

Dr Bubb,

 

If ever you ahd a case for changing a thread title this has to be it surely?

 

Down, down deeper and down!

 

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/minewe...2&sn=Detail

 

With clear warning for explorers........ "Most importantly" RBCCM continued, "in our view, will be disinterested equity markets that might cease funding uranium exploration and development. We believe that the absence of equity market participation in the uranium industry would constrain the ability of uranium supply to meet the growing demand, which, in turn, could threaten the ability of global utilities' new reactor build programs".

 

You would think a bounce would come sometime?

There’s been a noticeable uptick in media coverage of nuclear/uranium. Last week we had McCains comments, now this random piece in Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

“June 23 (Bloomberg) -- The uranium industry's worst year is about to collide with a nuclear construction program in India and China that rivals the ones undertaken during the oil crisis of the 1970s.

The result is likely to be a 58 percent rebound in uranium to $90 a pound from $57 now, according to Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty and Rio Tinto Group, the third-biggest mining company. “