Cheapest GOLD Stocks - METRICS method (Mar'24)

[webmaster]

Cheapest GOLD Stocks : ROY: SR: iMed: JR1: JR2: etc.. based on P/CF

ROY: Sand: $5.43, 7.1%; Tfpm: $16.32, 21.3%; Rgld: 122.3, 159%; FNV: 123.3, 161% /UGL $76.7 @5.3.24

SR : K , EDV, BTO, ABX

iMed : FVI, OGX, NGD, EQX, CDE

JR1 : ORE, ORA, ARIS, KRR;

JR2: ARIS, CXB, MAG, IAU

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CHEAPEST 3 - Royalty, based on P/CF

USD.eqv  Price: Gn.>Target  NAV: Pr/N: Pr/CF EV/eb FCFsust.Mr
1 SAND    4.65 +47% $6.85 $6.04 0.77x 12.4x, 11.3x 57%  
2 RGLD 112.75 +28% 144.0 78.30: 1.44x 14.0x, 11.7x 69%  
3 TFPM  13.63 +14%: 15.56 14.48: 1.27x 16.5x, 15.2x 76%  
6 WPM   44.70 +26% 56.30 29.60 1.51x  25.8x 21.8x 66%   
7 FNV     115.0  +01%: 120.0 55.27 2.08x 26.5x 20.1x 72%

SUGGESTIONS:    
+ Lg. Cap., Diversified: AEM / Agnico-Eagle    
+ Torque to Gold: KGC / Kinross    
+ Growth & value: EDV / Endeavour Mining   
+ Large cap Royalty: WPM / Wheaton Precious Metals    
+ Mid-tied Royalty:  OGR / Osisko Gold Royalties    
+ Small Cap: ARIS.t / Aris Mining

Royalty, CDN, based on P/CF

# sym.    Price Target  NAV : Pr/N   Pr/CF FCFsust.Marg 
1 SSL    C$6.28 $9.25 $8.15: 0.77x 12.4x 57% 
2 RGLD  112.75 144.0: 78.30 1.44x 14.0x, 69% 
3 TFPM C$18.4 21.00: 10.73: 1.27x 16.5x, 76%  
7 FNV    C155.2 162.0: 74.62: 2.08x 26.5x 72% 

Edited just now by webmaster

CHEAPEST 3 - in each category (P/CF)

Price, Target, NAV, P/N, P/CF, sus.FCF-margin

Royalty 
1 SSL    C$6.28 $9.25 $8.15: 0.77x 12.4x 57% 
2 RGLD  112.75 144.0: 78.30: 1.44x 14.0x 69% 
3 TFPM C$18.4 21.00: 00.00: 1.27x 16.5x 76%  
7 FNV   C155.2 162.0: 74.62: 2.08x 26.5x 72%  
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CHEAPEST 3 - in each category (P/CF)

Price, Target, NAV, P/N, P/CF, sus.FCF-margin

Royalty 
1 SSL    C$6.28 $9.25 $8.15: 0.77x 12.4x 57% 
2 RGLD  112.75 144.0: 78.30: 1.44x 14.0x 69% 
3 TFPM C$18.4 21.00: 00.00: 1.27x 16.5x 76%  
7 FNV   C155.2 162.0: 74.62: 2.08x 26.5x 72%

Seniors 
1 K       C$7.25: 11.00,  13.43: 0.54x,  3.9x, 26%  
2 EDV  C25.70: 45.00 55.87: 0.46x,  4.7x  26%  
3 BTO C$3.56: $7.25, $8.48: 0.42x,  4.9x  25%  
6 ABX C21.29: 27.00,  32.75: 0.65x,  6.4x  24%  
Intermed. 
1 FVI    C$4.35: $6.00, $5.18: 0.84x   2.4x  23% 
2 OGC C$2.75: $4.00, $3.09: 0.89x   2.5x  33% 
3 NGD C$2.03: $2.75, $2.86: 0.71x    2.7x  29% 
x EQX  C$6.33: 11.50,  23.44: 0.27x   3.3x  17% 
x CDE     $3.13: $3.00, $3.19: 0.98x  12.0x  -9% 
x HL       $4.06: $5.00, $3.03: 1.34x  12.3x +9%

Junior Prod 
/1 ORE  C$0.90: $2.25, $3.60: 0.25x,  2.0x, 41%% 
/2 ORA  C$9.42: 15.00, 117.75  0.08x,  2.4x, 30%% 
/3 ARIS C$4.55: $9.25, 32.50: 0.14x,  3.0x, 22%% 
/4 KRR  C$4.76: $7.75,  $9.92: 0.48x  3.6x, 36%% 
/5 CXB  C$1.75:  $3.00, $4.07: 0.43x  3.6x, 27%% 
/x MAG  C$12.17 20.00, 17.64:  0.69x 13.1x, 14%% 
/x IAU    C$2.11:  $6.00, $5.86: 0.36x  nm , -53%% 
/====

[webmaster]

GOLD set to RIse vs. Stocks?: 140 Years ... YT interview: 

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RGLD : $117.36 + $7.30, +6.63%

BMO Capital Upgrades Royal Gold to Outperform, Adjusts Price Target to $158 From $148

 03/27/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Royal Gold (RGLD.NaE) has an average rating of outperform and price targets ranging from $115 to $166, according to analysts polled by Capital IQ.

(MT Newswires covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www.mtnewswires.com/contact-us)

 

[webmaster]

NOT the CHEAPEST - But called "The Best"

VIDEO:  Top 5 "Best Of The Best" Mining Stocks

Things Can Change, eh?

RICK RULES. Best-of-Best, early 2022

Symbol :  Company Name     :  ye’21 :  ye’23 :  apr’24 : % chg

      =  GLD   : GOLD etf.         :

1. FNV   / Franco Nevada: 137.20: 000.00: 000.00: -10.9%
2. WPM  / Wheaton Prec.:  42.78:   00.00:   00.00:  +18.2%
3. RGLD / Royal Gold       :
4. GOLD / Barrick Gold    :
5. AEM   / Agnico Eagle   :
6. NEM   / Newmont Mng.:

FNV: $122.31, vs YE'21 (137.20): - 10.9%

WPM: $50.57, vs YE'21 ($42.78): +18.2%

RGLD:

GOLD: $17.86,   WPM: $50.57, vs YE'21 ($42.78): +18.2%

AEM: vs YE'21 ($00.00): +00.0%

 

[webmaster]

NEM-vsGold-etc: $40.66 /UGL-76.70= 53.0%; GOLD-$16.46, 21.5%, GDX-$33.44, 43.6% @ 5.03.24

Analyst: Pr.:  BkVal:   BoS-HuS= Cs, High-Low:  Ave: /Price:  Q1-Qtr2: OptVol  
ARMN $ 4.12: $4.54:  (6-0-0-0-0) B  8.74-4.75: $6.78: 165%: 0.09 0.19: NoOp 
GOLD $16.46 13.36 (13–4–6-0-0) O  26.2- 17.8: 21.59: 131%: 0.25 0.30:  30.% 
NEM : $40.66 25.06:  (9-5-8-2-0) O 54.0-38.3:  47.14: 116%:  0.55 0.67:  32.% 
AEM : $65.04 39.43: (16-2-1-1-0)  B 98.3-57.0:  76.76: 118%: 0.76 0.81:   28.% 
KGC : $ 6.59:  $4.95: (10-1-6-1-1)  O 9.78-5.50: $7.97:  121%: 0.06 0.09:  38.%

RGLD $122.3: 39.48:  (5-1–6-1-0) O  168.- 129.: 151.2:  124%: 0.92 1.09:  28.% 
FNV  : $123.3: 30.26:  (3-1-4–1-0) H  175.- 127.:  141.6: 115%:  0.79 0.84:  28.% 
WPM: $52.69  15.42 (13-1–3-0-0) B 70.0- 40.4: 58.66: 111%:  0.30 0.29:  32.%
TFPM: $16.32: $8.99 (10-1-0-0-0) B  23.2-15.0: 18.78:  115%:   0.11  0.11 : 48.%
SAND: $ 5.43: $4.79:  (9-1-2-0-0) B   11.0- 5.50: $7.54: 139%: 0.02 0.02: 38.% 
GROY: $ 1.90:  $3.58: (5-0-2-0-0) O  5.75- 2.50: $3.56: 187%:-0.01-0.01: 72.% 

MUX  : $11.76:  10.16: (5-0-0-0-0)  B  13.5- 10.0:  11.88: 101%: -0.14 -0.11: 66.% 
MAG  : $12.28: $4.92: (9–2-2-0-0) B  17.5-12.53; 14.97: 122%:  0.13  0.12: 44.% 
CDE   : $ 4.88: $2.55:  (7-1-1-0-0)  B  6.00-4.50: $5.46 112%: -0.01  0.03: 68.% 
EQX   : $ 5.38: $7.68: (7-0–0-4-0) O  8.79-4.93:  $7.02 130%: -0.07-0.01: 52.%   
====>  source: Y-stats: 

[webmaster]

ROY: At $5.43, SAND could be the Top ROY pick of early MAY, at 7.1% of UGL ($76.70)

ROY: Sand: $5.43, 7.1%; Tfpm: $16.32, 21.3%; Rgld: 122.3, 159%; FNV: 123.3, 161% /UGL $76.7 @5.3.24

SAND ($5.43) to TFPM.to (C$22.28): R-24.4%.  SAND ($5.43) to TFPM ($16.32): R-33.3%

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[webmaster]

IAU.t / i-80 Gold Corp : C$1.53, BV:1.37, PER: n/a, Yield, n/a (R: 1.49 to 3.12 )

Ratio: C$1.53 / $78.39 =1.95%

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[webmaster]

Gold DOGS - vs EQX/ UGL (B <7%?) - Short cycle Low coming End of June?

EGX ($5.12) / UGL ($74.95): 6.83%.  BTG ($2.59, 3.46%), IAU.t (C$1.44, 1.92%) at 6.07.24

EGX ($5.57) / UGL ($78.39): 7.11%.  BTG ($2.76, 3.52%), IAU.t (C$1.53, 1.95%) at 5.24.24

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Our take: • We view today’s gold pour announcement as positive and note that EQX met its target of first gold in May. The company has a Q3/24 target for commercial production at Greenstone. • At 100% ownership, Greenstone (47% of NAV) is a true cornerstone asset for EQX and on our estimates, the mine will generate just under ~350koz of gold per year at average AISC of ~$900/oz over its 14-year mine life. • We forecast EQX’s overall production ramping up to ~1Moz in 2025, driven by Greenstone, and with AISC declining by 12% y/y.

Our focus going forward:      • Greenstone ramp-up. Recall that on May 13, EQX announced the closing of its acquisition of Orion Mine Finance’s 40% interest in the Greenstone mine for $995M in cash and equity, bringing EQX’s ownership of the mine to 100%. We’re now focused on commercial production (targeting Q3/24), as well as the subsequent ramp-up, which we forecast to drive production to ~1 Moz by 2025.     • Los Filos negotiations. EQX is currently in the process of negotiating new social and land access agreements with local community stakeholders and landowners, a prerequisite, it says, to the construction of a new 10,000 tpd CIL plant which will improve costs and ensure long-term economic viability of the mine. We flag these negotiations and the potential for related production suspensions as a risk to EQX’s 2024 guidance, production profile, and our asset valuation.     • Balance sheet. With an additional $500M term loan to acquire Orion’s Greenstone interest, we forecast ND/EBITDA (NTM) increasing to 2.3x in Q2/24. Management has stated deleveraging is now a focus and on our estimates, the company achieves a net cash position by 2028, supported by increased cash flow from Greenstone.

Valuation: We maintain our BUY rating and target price of C$12.00. Our target price remains based on an equal weighting of 6.5x NTM EBITDA and 0.6x operating NAV less net debt and other corporate adjustments.

RATIO : xx 

[webmaster]

EQX since mid-2020: $5.12. PER:na , Yield:na (R: 3.95 to 6.50 ) 6.50-3.95=2.55 x38.2%= 0.97+3.95=$4.93

 

UGL: $74.95

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[webmaster]

SUGGESTIONS:    
+ Lg. Cap., Diversified: AEM / Agnico-Eagle    
+ Torque to Gold: KGC / Kinross    
+ Growth & value: EDV / Endeavour Mining   
+ Large cap Royalty: WPM / Wheaton Precious Metals    
+ Mid-tied Royalty:  OGR / Osisko Gold Royalties    
+ Small Cap: ARIS.t / Aris Mining

Royalty, CDN, based on P/CF

# sym.    Price Target  NAV : Pr/N   Pr/CF FCFsust.Marg 
1 SSL    C$6.28 $9.25 $8.15: 0.77x 12.4x 57% 
2 RGLD  112.75 144.0: 78.30 1.44x 14.0x, 69% 
3 TFPM C$18.4 21.00: 10.73: 1.27x 16.5x, 76%  
7 FNV    C155.2 162.0: 74.62: 2.08x 26.5x 72% 

[webmaster]

The "Cheap Majors": EDV.t (29.39) / ABX.t (22.23) = 132%, Gold (16.15) / NEM (40.36) = 40.0%

EDV.t etc - since 2016: "one of Top 10-12 Gold producers" #9?- mostly in Franco-phone Africa

Analyst: Pr.:  BkVal:   BoS-HuS= Cs, High-Low:  Ave: /Price: Prev -Ls :  PER: Yield: OptVol    
EDV.t c$29.39 $12.6 (3–5–0-0-0) B? 50.9-31.3: 39.54: 134%: 0.23 0.23: N/A : 3.72% ???%  
ABX. c$22.23 $13.4 (3-8-7-0-0): O? 41.0-25.0: 30.92: 139%: 0.28 0.21: 20.0 : 2.44% ???%  
GOLD $16.15 13.36 ( 4-9-6-0-0): O? 18.0-25.3: 22.21: 138%: 0.27 0.19:  20.0 : 2.48% 31.%   
NEM  $40.36 25.06 (0-9-7-0-0):  O? 67.9-58.9: 63.39 157% 0.68 0.75:  N/A  : 2.48% 32.%   
AEM  $63.80 39.43 (0-8-5-2-2):  H? 118.-58.0: 63.80 100%  0.57 0.76:  67.5 : 2.51%  30.%  
=== > YahooFinance : Barchart : 

EDV Analyst Recommendation Trends  In the current month, EDV has received 25 Buy Ratings, 2 Hold Ratings, and 0 Sell Ratings. EDV average Analyst price target in the past 3 months is C$40.71.

> xx

Endeavour Mining shares slump after gold miner fires CEO

Jan. 5, 2024 at 6:40 a.m. ET by Steve Goldstein

[webmaster]

Endeavour Mining plc's (TSE:EDV) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 68% Above Its Share Price

editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St) /    Fri, May 31, 2024    In This Article:   EDV.L-5.98%

Largest West African producer :  4 Gold mines & growing

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Endeavour Mining fair value estimate is CA$50.08 (168%)

• Endeavour Mining's CA$29.82 share price signals that it might be 40% undervalued

• The US$39.12 analyst price target for EDV is 22% less than our estimate of fair value

• EDV: 2023: C$29.39, w/UGL ($74.95) = 39.2%

• 

• Ratio, C$29 / ugl-$75 = 39.2%, +3.09%

• 

• FOCUS on NAV & CF, on PER SHARE Basis, RR-Video, and Presentation

[webmaster]

Canaccord Genuity Precious Metal top picks

(Cv. to $= C$1.38 ): 
Senior producers:    : 
EDV (C$53 / C$30.9= +71.5%) Endeavour* 
K > KGC: $11.6/ 8.85=+31.1%) Kinross*  
Intermed. Mid /Jr prods: : 
ARIS (C$11.0 / C$5.86= +87.7%)* 
CXB (C$4.00 / C2.10 = +90.5%) Calibre 
TXG (C$32 / C$21.54= +48.6%) Torex  
 RoyRoyalty /stream co.: : 
WPM (>$72.5/$60.0=+10.8%), Wheaton  
OR (C$31; $22.5 /17.43= +29.1%) Osisko

*I own, or recently owned sh. in these miners.

I will take a close look at: CXB, TXG (and their options, if any)

Sr. / Mid. / Roy. :  

Mid.   

Roy  :

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[webmaster]

Suggestion:  BUY Bonds. Invest interest (of next 2-3yrs) in cheap options on Mining stocks

Gold stock Examples:  GLD at /$225: GOLD (17.91, 7.96%), BTG (2.85, 1.27%)... and EQX ($5.18, 2.30%)

EQX Rally coming?: 

EQX: $5.18 -0.25, PER: n/a Y: n/a, R: 3.95-6.50

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[webmaster]

UPDATED ROY chart

Note Nearly ALL the Targets were reached! 

Only SAND missed so far (yrH: $6.07 / $6.85, -11.4% lower)

CHEAPEST 3 - Royalty, based on P/CF

USD.eqv  Price: Gn.>Target  NAV: Pr/N: Pr/CF EV/eb FCF :  YrH :  Last :
1 SAND    4.65 +47% $6.85 $6.04 0.77x 12.4x, 11.3x 57%  $6.07 $5.49 
2 RGLD 112.75 +28% 144.0 78.30: 1.44x 14.0x, 11.7x 69%  $141 :  134.6
3 TFPM  13.63 +14%: 15.56 14.48: 1.27x 16.5x, 15.2x 76%  18.08: 15.03 
6 WPM   44.70 +26% 56.30 29.60 1.51x  25.8x 21.8x 66% $63. : 57.67  
7 FNV     115.0  +01%: 120.0 55.27 2.08x 26.5x 20.1x 72% $132 : 125.1

SAND: $5.49 -0.14, PER: 55.7x Y: 1.07%, R: 3.96-6.07

[webmaster]

TOP GUNS: Aris (C$6.34, 6.97%), Gold (20.58, 22.6%), AG ($5.79, 6.36%), FVI (C$6.40, 7.00%) / UGL ($91)

Silver : SLV ($27.27, 72.7%), AAG.v (.395, 1.05%), MAG ($13.69, 36.5%), SIL ($33.53, 89.4%) / AGQ ($37.5)

ROYS:

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USD-etf

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[webmaster]

EQX, is it still "cheap"? Costs up, in Greenstone  ramp-up

EQX (5.19 -.18); Day's, O:5.00, H:5.27, L:4.95; PER n/a  (R: 3.95-6.50 )

A day later... EQX (5.81 +.62, +11.95% ); O:5.31, H:5.82, L:5.23, PER: 12.03 (R: 3.95-6.50)

EQX vs. Enterprize_Value/ Ebitda Ratio - as "cheapness" measure

=== :  Last :  B.V. :  %BV: FwPE: Yield:  MkCp Ebitd Eb/sh  PEb: Db/Er EV/Eb AveEst  %chg  
NEM: 45.26: 25.97: 173% 7.87x: 2.21% 51.53b 6.01b 5.28:  8.57x 30.4% 24.5y 59.56 +31.6%  
Gold : 19.05: 13.47: 141% 9.98x 2.10% 33.45b 5.29b 3.01:  6.33x 14.5% 6.05yr 25.57 +34.2%  
AEM : 85.89 40.89: 210% 17.3x 1.86% 43.09b 4.20b 8.37: 10.3x  7.88%  13.1yr 93.26 +8.58%
AGI  : 20.15  $7.66:  263% 17.7x 0.50% $8.47b 575m 1.37:  14.7x 0.00% 14.7yr 23.79 +18.1%
EQX: $5.44: $7.50:  77.% 5.29x 0.00% $2.46b 226m 0.50 10.9x 51.9% 5.39yr $7.55 +38.8%
GDX : 39.85  === :   ===    n/a   1.25%: 15.36b   === * 
Gdxj : 50.84  === :   ===    n/a  0.54%: $5.58b   === * 
Aris  : $6.30  $4.81  131% 5.26x 0.00%: $1.07b 138m 0.81  7.78x 33.6% 11.4yr  10.72 +70.2%
EDV : 31.94: 12.35: 180% 6.72x  3.53% $7.64b 924m 3.86 8.27x 39.6% 8.23y 43.51 +36.2%
=====

EQX/ Equinox Gold    Q3/24 first look: cost guidance revisions; Greenstone achieves commercial production (CCD comment)

Event: EQX released its Q3/24 operating and financial results after market yesterday evening, November 6.

Our take:  Overall, we view the Q3 print as slightly negative. Gold production slightly missed our estimate and consensus, costs were higher, EBITDA slightly missed, and EPS was in line. Full year 2024 cost guidance was increased due to the slower ramp-up at Greenstone (ramp-up issues previously disclosed, more detail here and here), although we highlight that the updated consolidated costs are in line with our estimates, as we had preemptively brought our costs up (as we believe most analysts did, following the rampup news).

Positively, the company also announced commercial production at Greenstone, with the plant operating at 76% of design throughput for a 20-day period. We also note that Q3 revenue and adj. EBITDA were quarterly records. We remain focused on the ramp, as Greenstone is a cornerstone asset representing 44% of operating NAV and driving production growth to >1 Moz by 2026, on our estimates. Greenstone commercial production announced In a separate press release, the company announced commercial production at Greenstone. As of November 5, the trailing 20-day throughput averaged over 20,400 tpd, representing 76% of design. Crushing and grinding circuits have demonstrated the ability to operate at full production rate of 27,000 tpd, gold recovery has reached daily highs of >90%, and averaged 78% through October (target is 91%).

The focus now is on increasing availability and recoveries. Q3/24 operational and financial highlights (see Figures 1-3):

• Gold production of 174 koz, -2% vs. our 177 koz estimate (consensus 179 koz).

• Cash costs of $1,720/oz, +17% vs. our $1,469/oz estimate.

• AISC of $1,994/oz, +7% vs. our $1,857/oz estimate.

• Adj. EBITDA of $142M, -11% vs. our $160M estimate (consensus $151M). • Adj. EPS of $0.09 was in line with our $0.09 estimate (consensus $0.10). 

Negative revision to 2024 cost guidance (more detail in Figure 4): • Recall that we recently took our 2024 Au production estimate down from 732 koz to 611 koz, in line with the midpoint of guidance (590-675 koz) implied by the recent Greenstone production guidance revision (more detail here). •

With Q3 results, EQX has now updated cost guidance for Greenstone to reflect the slower ramp: • Cash costs have increased 22% to $850-950/oz (vs. our $1,146/z estimate) • AISC has increased 24% to $1,050-1,150/oz (vs. our $1,424/oz estimate) • Accordingly, consolidated cost estimates have also been updated: • Cash costs have increased 11% to $1,450-1,550/oz (in line with our $1,527/oz estimate). • AISC has been increased 11% to $1,820-1,920/oz (in line with our 1,876/oz estimate).

Balance sheet update. EQX finished Q3/24 with $168M of cash (flat q/q), $1,482M debt, and $104M available on the $700M revolving credit facility.