PSEI in Gold Oz > "Normal level is about 10% of Gold price"

[webmaster]

PSEI in GOLD oz. : back near a Low.  Learn The Rules...

"Expected level of PSEI is Decent Value at about 10% of the Gold price"
… Calculated like this...
PSEI ( 7,947) / Gold ( $1507 x 51.14= Php 77.07k)= 0.103 Oz.

Simple Rule of thumb for Recent Range may be: Expect  approx.10% of an Gold Oz to buy you the PSEI.

(Rule-1: One Ounces buys very approx. 10x the PSEI. Using Gold price in PHP.) :
(Rule-2: Aim to BUY CHEAPER, than the "Rule-1 Price", like half that, even 5% of an Oz, or less.) :
(Rule-3: HOLD a cheap core position for LT, but be willing to trade around it. Improve it as you go.) :
(Rule-4: Long term SELL level might be 1o%-15% of a Gold Oz. 1997 Peak was over 30% on an Oz.)

GOLD PSEI,  Monthly prices since 2000

 Oct.2019. $1507 x 51.14= P77,070;  Apr.2024. $2273 x 56.42= P128,243 = P12,800 "expected" PSEI

PSEI / Phil. Stock Index, since 1988: 10yr.: 5yr.: 1yr. / LAST: 6,745 - chart w/o Labels

Oct.2019 version

SIMPLE RULE?  worked well since about 2000...

Buy PSEI below 0.050 oz. / Sell PSEI above 0.130 - or something like that

YrEnd: PHP/$ : Gold : PHgold: +1yr % :  PSEI : +1yr % : PS/oz.
1990 : 28.00 : $392.8 : 10.99k:  ==== : 0,651.:  ==== :  0.059:
1991 : 26.67 : $353.2 : P9420: - 14.3%: 1,152.:  +77.0%: 0.122:
1992 : 25.32 : $332.9: P8429: - 10.5%: 1,256.: +9.03%: 0.149:
1993 : 27.79 : $391.8 : 10.89k: +29.2%: 3,196.: +155.%: 0.293:
1994 : 24.15 : $383.3 : P9257:  -15.0%: 2,786.:  -12.8%: 0.301: 
1995 : 26.21 :  $387.0 : 10.14k: +9.54%: 2,594: -6.90%: 0.256:
1996 : 26.29 : $369.3 : P9709: -4.25%: 3,171.: +22.2%: 0.327: 

           > End of Millennium "HIGH" for stocks??

1997 : 37.17  :  $290.2 : 10.79k: +11.1%: 1,869.:  - 41.1%:  0.173:
1998 : 39.07 :  $287.8 : 11.24k: +4.17%: 1,969.: +5.35%: 0.175:
1999 : 40.62 : $290.3 : 11.79k: +4.91%: 2,143.: +8.84%: 0.182:
2000 : 49.90 : $272.7 : 13.61k: +16.6%: 1,495.: - 30.2%: 0.110:
2001 : 51.79 : $276.5 : 14.32k: +5.22%:  1,168.: - 21.9%: 0.082:
2002 : 53.52 : $347.2 : 18.58k: +29.7%: 1,018.: - 12.8%: 0.055:
2003 : 55.45 : $416.3 : 23.08k: +24.2%: N/A- :  ==== : ====:
2004 : 56.18 : $435.6 : 24.57k: +6.46%: N/A- :  ==== : ====:
2005 : 53.61 : $513.0 : 27.50k:  +11.9%: 2,096.:  ==== : 0.076:
2006 : 49.47: $632.0 : 31.27k: +13.7%: 2,983.: +42.3% 0.095:
2007 : 41.74 : $833.8 : 34.80k: +11.3%: 3,622.: +21.4%: 0.104:
2008 : 48.09: $869.8 : 41.83k: +20.2%: 1,873.: -48.3%: 0.045:

            > LOW: only 0.045 Oz will buy the PSEI index
2009 : 46.42 : 1087.5 : 50.48k: +20.7%: 3,053: +63.0%: 0.060:
2010 : 43.95 : 1405.5 : 61.77k:  +22.4%: 4,201.: +37.6%: 0.068:
2011 :  43.65 : 1531.0 : 66.83k:  +8.19%: 4,372: +4.07%: 0.065:
2012 :  41.01 : 1657.5 :  67.97k:  +1.71%: 5,813.: +33.0%: 0.086:
2013 : 44.10 : 1204.5 :  53.12k:  -11.9%:  5,890.: +1.32%:  0.111:
2014 : 44.69: 1206.0 : 53.90k:  +1.47%: 7,231.:  +22.8%: 0.134:
2015 : 47.23 : 1069.0 : 50.59k: - 6.15%:  6,984.: -3.42%: 0.138:
2016 : 49.82 : 1145.9 : 57.09k:  +12.8%: 6,841.:  -2.05%:  0.120:
2017 : 50.39 : 1291.0 : 65.05k:  +13.9%: 8,558: +25.1%:  0.132:
2018 : 52.77 : 1279.0 : 67.49k:  +3.75%: 7,466.: - 12.8%:  0.111:
9/’19 :  52.11 : 1485.3 : 77.40k:  +14.7%:  7,779.: +4.19%:  0.101: 

            > 0.101: = 10.1% of a Gold Oz req'd to buy PSEI

2019 :  50.71 : 1519.5:  77.05k:  +14.1%:   7,815.:  +4.67%: 0.101:
2020 : 48.01 : 1877.3:  90.13k:  +17.0%:   7,140.:  -8.64%: 0.079
2021 :  51.00 : 1827.5:  93.20k: +3.14%:  7,335.: +2.73%: 0.079
2022 :  55.68: 1823.9:  101.6k: +9.01%:  6,556.:  -10.6%: 0.065
2023 :  55.40: 2062.9: 114.3k: +12.5%:  6,450.:  -1.62%: 0.056
04/’24  56.42: 2273.0: 128.2k: +12.1%:   6,864.: +6.42%: 0.054

0.054 = Near LOW? only 5.4% of a Gold Oz req'd to buy PSEI

=====
Sources: bigcharts /PesoCross.XL > www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/excel/pesocross.xls
Gold London pm, Kitco : https://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx

> See TIMELINE thread

[webmaster]

GOLD PSEI,  Monthly prices since 2000

          : Phl.Gold: Oct.'19 $1507 x 51.14= P77,070; 

          : Apr.'24 : $2273 x 56.42= P128,243

YrEnd: PHP/$: Gold : PHgold: +1yr % : PSEI : +1yr %: PS/oz.
1990 : 28.00 : $392.8: 10.99k : ==== : 0,651.: ==== :  0.059:
1991 : 26.67 : $353.2 : P9420: - 14.3%: 1,152.: +77.0%: 0.122:
1992 : 25.32 : $332.9: P8429: - 10.5%: 1,256: +9.03%: 0.149:
1993 : 27.79 : $391.8 : 10.89k: +29.2%: 3,196: +155.%: 0.293:
1994 : 24.15 : $383.3 : P9257: -15.0%: 2,786.: -12.8%: 0.301:
1995 : 26.21 : $387.0 : 10.14k: +9.54%: 2,594: -6.90%: 0.256:
1996 : 26.29 : $369.3: P9709: -4.25%: 3,171.: +22.2%: 0.327: 

         > End of Millennium "HIGH" for stocks??

1997 : 37.17 : $290.2 : 10.79k:  +11.1% : 1,869.: - 41.1% : 0.173:
1998 : 39.07 : $287.8 : 11.24k: +4.17%:  1,969: +5.35%: 0.175:
1999 : 40.62 : $290.3 : 11.79k: +4.91%: 2,143: +8.84%: 0.182:
2000 : 49.90: $272.7 : 13.61k: +16.6%:  1,495.: -30.2%: 0.110:
2001 : 51.79 : $276.5 : 14.32k: +5.22%:  1,168.:  -21.9%: 0.082:
2002 : 53.52 : $347.2 : 18.58k: +29.7%: 1,018.: -12.8%: 0.055:
2003 : 55.45 : $416.3 : 23.08k: +24.2%:  N/A- : ==== : ====:
2004 : 56.18 : $435.6 : 24.57k: +6.46%:  N/A- : ==== : ====:
2005 : 53.61 : $513.0 : 27.50k: +11.9%: 2,096.:  ==== : 0.076:
2006 : 49.47: $632.0 : 31.27k: +13.7%: 2,983: +42.3% 0.095:
2007 : 41.74 : $833.8 : 34.80k: +11.3%: 3,622: +21.4%: 0.104:
2008 : 48.09: $869.8 : 41.83k: +20.2%: 1,873: -48.3% :0.045:

           > LOW: only 0.045 Oz will buy the PSEI index
2009 : 46.42 : 1087.5 : 50.48k: +20.7%: 3,053: +63.0%: 0.060:
2010 : 43.95 : 1405.5 : 61.77k: +22.4%: 4,201.: +37.6%: 0.068:
2011 : 43.65 : 1531.0 : 66.83k: +8.19%: 4,372: +4.07%: 0.065:
2012 : 41.01 :  1657.5 : 67.97k:  +1.71%: 5,813.: +33.0%: 0.086:
2013 : 44.10 : 1204.5 : 53.12k:  -11.9%:  5,890: +1.32%:  0.111:
2014 : 44.69: 1206.0 : 53.90k: +1.47%: 7,231.: +22.8%: 0.134:
2015 : 47.23 : 1069.0 : 50.59k: - 6.15%: 6,984.: -3.42%: 0.138:
2016 : 49.82 : 1145.9 : 57.09k: +12.8%: 6,841.: -2.05%:  0.120:
2017 : 50.39 : 1291.0 : 65.05k: +13.9%: 8,558:: +25.1%: 0.132:
2018 : 52.77 : 1279.0 : 67.49k: +3.75%: 7,466.: - 12.8%: 0.111:
9/’19 : 52.11 : 1485.3 : 77.40k:  +14.7%: 7,779.:  +4.19%: 0.101: 

         > 0.101: = 10.1% of a Gold Oz req'd to buy PSEI

2019 : 50.71 : 1519.5: 77.05k: +14.1%: 7,815.:  +4.67%: 0.101:
2020 : 48.01 : 1877.3: 90.13k: +17.0%: 7,140.:  -8.64%: 0.079
2021 : 51.00 : 1827.5: 93.20k: +3.14%: 7,335.: +2.73%: 0.079
2022 : 55.68: 1823.9:  101.6k: +9.01%: 6,556.:  -10.6%: 0.065
2023 : 55.40: 2062.9: 114.3k: +12.5%: 6,450.:  -1.62%: 0.056
04/’24 56.42: 2273.0: 128.2k: +12.1%:  6,864.: +6.42%: 0.054

> 0.054 = Near LOW? 5.4% of a Gold Oz req'd to buy PSEI

====

[webmaster]

TALKING LONG CYCLES of "about 20 years"

Major PSEI PEAKS were 1997 and 2018 (9,100 in Jan.'18)

  

Followed by a "famine period" of up to 7 years... 

My Current Guess is the "C" Low in PSEI will come in at roughly 5,000 +/- 1,000 in Oct.2024, or Oct.2025.

An exact 7-year correction, from the Jan.2018 Peak, would end in Q1.2025.  

I am using Wilson Sy's Seasonal Cycle of "Halloween to Valentine's Day" being a period of SEASONAL Strength, :
we can expect a Cycle Low possibly in either Oct.2024 or Oct.2025, if the Famine period lasts 7 years this time. :
I bet on the seasonal cycle this past year, and now see signs in April 2024 that PSEI may be rolling over. :
And so we could get some real weakness into one of those "sweet spot" seasonal low points.

( BTW,  these are merely intelligent guesses, using Cyclical building blocks. Time with tell how accurate this is. 
It is also possible that the LOW is already in place - see "c?" above.  We may have seen a premature Low in 
Oct.2022 when PSEI touched 5,700 (actual 5,700 close on xx.xx.22.)  If so, then the recent uptrend will continue 
and the PSEI may soon find new highs at 7,500 and higher, exceeding the Q1.2022 highs.  I give this premature 
Low scenario, maybe a 20% probability. That will shift to a higher probability if PSEI makes new highs for 2024.)

[webmaster]

If Looking for a possible LOW in terms of GOLD Oz - PSEI is already cheap...

PSEI: 6,745 / Phl. Gold (Kitco: $2,329 x56.59) = Php.131,800 /oz. = 5.12% of a Gold Oz.

From Table, above:  PSEI has been sliding into a Low...

Yr.End $/Php: GOLD:  PhpAU   yr.Chg:     PSEI:  yr.Chg:  In Oz.:
2017 :  50.39 : 1291.0 : 65.05k: +13.9%: 8,558:: +25.1%: 0.132: > Peak: 9,100, Jan.2018
2018 :  52.77 : 1279.0 : 67.49k: +3.75%: 7,466.:  -12.8%: 0.111 :
2019 :  50.71 : 1519.5:  77.05k:  +14.1%:   7,815.:  +4.67%: 0.101:
2020 : 48.01 : 1877.3:  90.13k:  +17.0%:   7,140.:  -8.64%: 0.079
2021 :  51.00 : 1827.5:  93.20k: +3.14%:  7,335.: +2.73%: 0.079
2022 :  55.68: 1823.9:  101.6k: +9.01%:  6,556.:  -10.6%: 0.065
2023 :  55.40: 2062.9: 114.3k: +12.5%:  6,450.:  -1.62%: 0.056
04/’24  56.42: 2273.0: 128.2k: +12.1%:  6,864.: +6.42%: 0.054

0.054 = Near LOW? only 5.4% of a Gold Oz req'd to buy PSEI

In last two days, the ratio fell to 5.11%, as Gold went on rising.

If PSEI slides to 5,000 and gold stays at $2,300, the ratio will be just 3.85% at Php.56.50

PSEI: 5,000 / Phl. Gold (Kitco: $2,300 x56.5) = Php.130,000 /oz:
    . = 3.85% of a Gold Oz. :
Somehow, it seems possible that PSEI will not get so cheap. :
If it doesn’t, then maybe a global correction in Stocks will drag :
down PSEI, global indices and the GOLD price also.

[webmaster]

The INFLATION CYCLE has turned UP, & Rates are higher too.

Copper vs TNX: xx: 2023: $4.44 /$89= xx, DBA: xx, USO: xx

Longer Cycles turned UP in 2020, after the initial Covid deflation Shock.

DBA (Agri.Commodities) chart shows this clearly. And the price rise now has a "second wind", as Food price push up again.

XOI / NYSE ARCA Oil Index : quote: 

XOI: NYSE ARCO OIL Index  :
Low:   Mar.  2003: $417 :
Peak: May  2008: 1,670 +300% :
Low:   Nov. 2008:  $751   - 46% :
Peak: Jun.  2014:  1,738 +131% :
Low:   Mar, 2020:  $443   - 75% :
Last:  Apr.  2024:  2,260 +410%

[webmaster]

BEATING the PSEI using an investment in IFN, the Indian Fund, as a proxy for PSEI.

IFN is denominated in USD and pays a Quarterly dividend of approximately 10% per annum

 IFN-vs-PSEI: 10d: IFN (17.55) / PSEI (6,450)= r-0.27% of PSEI. And 0.74% of Gold Oz. / disc to NAV

Table: Historical Ratios

YrEnd PSEI :  IFN  :  Disc:  PSEI:  Ratio:  TLT  :  Gold :  IF/Au  
2015: 6984: 22.74: 0.33% 6984: .33% 120.60: 1069: 2.13%  
2016: 6841: 21.39:  0.31%: 6841: .31%  119.10:  1146:  1.87%  
2017: 8558: 26.12:  0.31%: 8558: .31%  126.90: 1291: 2.02%  
2018: 7466: 20.24: 0.27%: 7466: .27%  121.50: 1486: 1.36%  
2019: 7815:  20.13: 0.26%: 7815: .26%  135.50: 1520: 1.32%  
2020: 7140: 19.96: 0.28%: 7140: .28%  157.70:  1877: 1.06%  
2021: 7335:  21.10: 0.29%: 7335: .29%  148.20: 1828: 1.15%  
2022: 6556: 14.81: 0.23%: 6556: .23%  $99.56 1824: 0.81%  
2023: 6450: 18.82 0.28%: 6450: .29%  $98.88 2063: 0.91%  
Ave.:  7238: 20.59 0.28% 7238: .28% 125.33  1567: 1.41%  
/4.17> 6450: 17.55: 0.27%: 6450: .27% $89.28 2360: 0.74%

IFN to Gold: Cheapest yet at 0.74% of Gold Oz

====

IFN-vs-PSEI: 2019: 

Source: CEF Connect

Called: "The Only Investment You Need for the Next 30 Years? "  

Per:  David Skarica, at AddictToProfits

> Source:   https://addictedtoprofits.net/the-only-investment-you-need-for-the-next-30-years-the-result-will-surprise-you-scotday-april-17th-2024/