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Oil Cycles

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Tim Wood's cyclical indicators say "Sell Oil"


"I ... use the intermediate-term weekly charts, which would correspond to the Secondary movement explained above. In the first chart below I have plotted a weekly chart of crude oil. The indicator in blue is my Cycle Turn Indicator and the one in green is my Trend Indicator. When the Trend Indicator is moving up and is above its trigger line, the intermediate-term trend is bullish and any down turn of the Cycle Turn Indicator is considered a counter-trend move. As an example, the intermediate-term Trend Indicator turned up in late March and crossed above its trigger line the first week of April. Then in late April the Cycle Turn Indicator turned down. We knew that as long as the Trend Indicator held above its trigger line that the decline being signaled by the Cycle Turn Indicator was a counter-trend move. In June the Trend Indicator turned down but never crossed below its trigger line. Therefore, the intermediate-term up trend remained intact. Once the correction into the June intermediate-term low was made, prices moved to new highs."




"This brings us to the present. Earlier this past week both the Trend and the Cycle Turn Indicators turned down. With both of these indicators now moving down we know that the intermediate-term direction for crude oil is bearish."


HE GOES ON to talk about cycles on the Oil Service Sector (OSX) and Gasoline. Here's his chart on OSX





-from: http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

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