webmaster

ROY: At $5.43, SAND could be the Top ROY pick of early MAY, at 7.1% of UGL ($76.70) ROY: Sand: $5.43, 7.1%; Tfpm: $16.32, 21.3%; Rgld: 122.3, 159%; FNV: 123.3, 161% /UGL $76.7 @5.3.24 SAND ($5.43) to TFPM.to (C$22.28): R-24.4%. SAND ($5.43) to TFPM ($16.32): R-33.3% ==

ROY: At $5.43, SAND could be the Top ROY pick of early MAY, at 7.1% of UGL ($76.70) ROY: Sand: $5.43, 7.1%; Tfpm: $16.32, 21.3%; Rgld: 122.3, 159%; FNV: 123.3, 161% /UGL $76.7 @5.3.24 SAND ($5.43) to TFPM.to (C$22.28): R-24.4%. SAND ($5.43) to TFPM ($16.32): R-33.3% ==

The "Unfavored Two" (VLL and MEG) remain under pressure VLL-etc (1.49) /R0CK: (1.49)= 100%, MEG (1.75, 117%), CDC (0.72, 48.3%); Shng (2.75, 184.5%) Shng (2.75, 184.5%) ===

The "Unfavored Two" (VLL and MEG) remain under pressure VLL-etc (1.49) /R0CK: (1.49)= 100%, MEG (1.75, 117%), CDC (0.72, 48.3%); Shng (2.75, 184.5%) Shng (2.75, 184.5%) ===

NEM-vsGold-etc: $40.66 /UGL-76.70= 53.0%; GOLD-$16.46, 21.5%, GDX-$33.44, 43.6% @ 5.03.24 Analyst: Pr.: BkVal: BoS-HuS= Cs, High-Low: Ave: /Price: Q1- Qtr2: OptVol ARMN $ 4.12: $4.54: (6-0-0-0-0) B 8.74-4.75: $6.78: 165%: 0.09 0.19: No Op GOLD $16.46 13.36 (13–4–6-0-0) O 26.2- 17.8: 21.59: 131%: 0.25 0.30: 30.0% NEM : $40.66 25.06: (9-5-8-2-0) O 54.0-38.3: 47.14: 116%: 0.55 0.67: ??? AEM : $65.04 39.43: (16-2-1-1-0) B 98.3-57.0: 76.76: 118%: 0.76 0.81: ??? KGC : $ 6.59: $4.95: (10-1-6-1-1) O 9.78-5.50: $7.97: 121%: 0.06 0.09: ??? RGLD $122.3: 39.48: (5-1–6-1-0) O 168.- 129.: 151.2: 124%: 0.92 1.09: 28.0% FNV : $123.3: 30.26: (3-1-4–1-0) H 175.- 127.: 141.6: 115%: 0.79 0.84: 28.0% WPM: $52.69 15.42 (13-1–3-0-0) B 70.0- 40.4: 58.66: 111%: 0.30 0.29: ??? TFPM: $16.32: $8.99 (10-1-0-0-0) B 23.2-15.0: 18.78: 115%: 0.11 0.11 : 48.0% SAND: $ 5.43: $4.79: (9-1-2-0-0) B 11.0- 5.50: $7.54: 139%: 0.02 0.02: 38.0% GROY: $ 1.90: $3.58: (5-0-2-0-0) O 5.75- 2.50: $3.56: 187%:-0.01-0.01: 72.0% MUX : $11.76: 10.16: (5-0-0-0-0) B 13.5- 10.0: 11.88: 101%: -0.14 -0.11: 66.0% MAG : $12.28: $4.92: (9–2-2-0-0) B 17.5-12.53; 14.97: 122%: 0.13 0.12: 44.0% CDE : $ 4.88: $2.55: (7-1-1-0-0) B 6.00-4.50: $5.46 112%: -0.01 0.03: 68.0% EQX : $ 5.38: $7.68: (7-0–0-4-0) O 8.79-4.93: $7.02 130%: -0.07-0.01: ???? ====> source: Y-stats:

Aboitiz-led UnionBank sets stock rights offering at P30.57 per share to fuel digital expansion cc

Note, above: xx Lance Gokongwei strengthens commitment to Robinsons Land shareholders with record cash dividend Robinsons Land Corporation (RLC), led by bilyonaryo Lance Gokongwei, has declared its highest ever regular cash dividend per share. The company’s board of directors approved the distribution of over P3.15 billion in regular cash dividends, translating to P0.65 per outstanding common share. RLC : 2yr: Last: 15.20 -0.12 Two-Tier Market, in Phl. Builders : Sym. : Price : B.V. : %BV : PER : Yield: E-Yld : ALI : 27.10: 21.33: 127.%: 16.54: 1.58%: 6.05% SMPH 27.55: 13.72: 201.%: 19.87: 1.26%: 5.03% ==== Ave,2 > : 164%: 18.20: 1.42%: 5.55% RLC : 15.22: 28.00: 54.3%: 6.173: 3.42% 16.2%

Bad investment: Owners of Andrew Tan’s Megaworld, Empire East properties bare construction defects, unjust terms BILYONARYO.COM October 24, 2022 Hundreds of Megaworld and Empire East property owners have signed an online petition demanding action from bilyonaryo Andrew Tan for construction defects and unjust payment terms that have made them regret making the investment. A Facebook group called “Megaworld Pissed Buyers” started a petition on Change.org detailing the litany of problems in Megaworld and Empire East properties. These include leaking ceilings and balconies, long delay in turnover of units, and gaps in documentation and financing. > https://bilyonaryo.com/2022/10/24/bad-investment-owners-of-andrew-tans-megaworld-empire-east-properties-bare-construction-defects-unjust-terms/business/

Take out the Magnificent 7, and the SPX has gone sideways SPX vs. IWM, PSEI: PSEI is even "less Magnificent" than the IWM/ Russell 2000 ===

MAJOR PROPERTY PAIR = Back to "Parity" - possible Pairs Trade? SMPH (27.55, 0.41%) vs. ALI (27.10, 0.41%), / PSEI-6,633. > 2017: 2018: 2020: Ytd: 2017: Timing ALI : SMPH : A-toS : /Psei : A% , S % : ye’19 : 45.50: 42.10 : 108.%: 7,815 : .58%, .54% : ye’20 : 40.90: 38.50: 106.%: 7,140 : .57%, .54% : ye’21 : 35.65: 35.50: 100.%: 7,335: .49%, .48% : ye’22 : 30.80: 35.50: 86.8%: 6,566: .47%, .54% : ye’23 : 34.45: 32.90: 105.%: 6,450: .53%, .51% : 05.02.: 27.10 : 27.55: 98.4%: 6,633: .41%, .42% : ===== Two-Tier Market, in Phl. Builders : Sym. : Price : B.V. : %BV : PER : Yield: E-Yld : ALI : 27.10: 21.33: 127.%: 16.54: 1.58%: 6.05% SMPH 27.55: 13.72: 201.%: 19.87: 1.26%: 5.03% ==== Ave,2 > : 164%: 18.20: 1.42%: 5.55% RLC : 15.22: 28.00: 54.3%: 6.173: 3.42% 16.2% MEG : P1.77 : P7.30: 24.2%: 3.176: 3.73% 31.5% SHNG P3.68: P9.31: 39.5%: 2.631: 7.87% 38.0% ROCK P1.53: P5.28: 29.0%: 3.001: 4.92% 33.3% VLL : P1.46: 10.46: 14.0%: 1.987: 4.25% 50.3% FLI : P0.74: P3.81: 19.4%: 4.765: 6.76% 21.0% CLI : P2.70: P4.75: 56.8%: 2.616: 6.67% 38.2% CDC : P0.72: P1.73: 41.6%: 4.283: 4.00% 23.3% ==== Ave,8 > : 34.9% 3.579: 5.20% 31.5% ==== Ave,10 > : 60.7% 6.50: 3.28% 26.3% SHNG "uber alles" (including Beating > ALI, SMPH) MEG (1.77) vs. SHNG (3.68) : -1.91, R-48%. Can anything catch up with the Div. Winner? (SHNG) === MEG / Mar. 2023 article - targeted a PER of 5.8. (now 3.18x), and at 5.8x xx = xx Financial Adviser: 5 Things to Know About Andrew Tan's Megaworld Corporation and How to Profit from It A close look at MEG.... "This year, MEG’s stock price continued to weaken after being removed from the PSE Index last February. The removal of MEG from the index could result in decreased demand for the stock. ... MEG's stock price has fallen to its lowest level in 52 weeks, reaching P1.98 per share. If selling pressure persists, the stock could decline even further to its pandemic low in 2020, which was P1.86 per share"

Barrick Gold sees slightly slower production as higher gold price drives a 143% increase in Q1 earnings (Kitco News) - Higher gold prices in the first quarter of 2024 continue to drive profits as Barrick Gold (NYSE: GOLD, TSX: ABX), reported slightly weaker gold production in the first quarter but said it was still on track to meet its annual target. May 01, 2024 - 9:06 AM

In addition to big positions in most of the Phl. REIT stocks, I own all of these... MEG-etc (1.78) etc., can follow SHNG (3.65) > updated: 5.2.24 : old. 1.5.24 : MEG was 2.05. SHNG was 3.61

"People are pulling back on buying cheap Fast food" MCD ($273) - does not look so cheap vs. these PHL. Restaurant chains./ (R: 245.73 to 302.39 ) It is the WAGE costs, which are rising faster (in the US) than menu prices, so higher sales don't mean higher prices FAST FOOD TROUBLE! Even McDonalds IS SUFFERING! You know the economy is not great when even McDonald's is starting to complain that business is not up to par. They released a statement on Tuesday this week about how the economy is weaker than anticipated and sales are dropping.

MAXS may be in a Buying Window... MAXS: since xx: Ytd: 10d. : P 3.17 +0.01 MAXS Group is cheap enough to BUY imho. < P3.20. Look at these metrics... P3.17, BV: 6.87, PER: 5.083, EPS: 0.624, Div: 0.169, Yield: 5.33%. I own it now. My average cost is near P3.50. So you can get it cheaper than me now. Haha. Again, no gtee you will make money.

ARMN at $4.06 (Fri) as wtB expire: C$5.56 ($4.064) -2.21= C$3.35 / 1.368 = US$2.448 ===

Reviewing the WINNERS & LOSERS of 2023-24: Since Jan.2022, GLD/ Gold has massively outperformed PSEI, TLT, and Reits (like RCR) ==== : ye’20 : ye'21 : ye'22 : ye'23 : Apr25 : '21>'24 Gold : 1,877. : 1,828.: 1,828.: 2,063.: 2,332.: +27.6% GLD : 178.36: 170.96: 169.64: 191.17: 216.62: +27.7% TLT : 157.70: 148.20: 99.56: 98.88: 88.24: -40.5% PSEI : 7,140.: 7,335.: 6,556.: 6,450.: 6,629.: -9.63% RCR : N / A : P7.60 : P5.85 : P4.89 : P5.14 : -30.4% ==== : EXPECTED RETURNS in Property (REVISITED) Investment: “Expected” : Notes Buy-Build-Sell: 30%+: what Risks? Builder Stocks: 25%+: Per PER=4.0* Stock Trades : 13%+: +PSEI gains Land (lots?). : 10% ?: Long term? REITS, phil. : 8% +: +Cap.Gains 2nd-H.Bargain: 6% +: Mgmt. Issues New Condos. : 3% +: +Cap.Gains ( This was a jumping-off point for the discussion That I led on Sat. morning, Oct. 20th.) TRADE SELECTION: A very brief SUMMARY of my technique: I aim to utilize ALL of the following in my trade selections: + I prefer LOW PER stocks, like <5x + I prefer HIGH DIV Yield stocks, 4% and up + I prefer to BUY BELOW BOOK Value, + I want to see Leverage falling, as Total Borrowing declines and Shareholder equity is rising + I want a chart which shows signs of a bottoming process being underway, rather than a “falling knife” Since Oct.'23, RESULTS were Great! : My Portfolio up +52.6% vs. 11% for PSEI WATCH Portfolio, 10.31.23/ 4.26.24 Mvalue APX. 2.58 40,816: 105,305/ 3.39 138,366 BEL. 1.18 86,957: 102,609/ 1.98 172,175 FILRT 3.00 33,557: 100,671/ 2.70 90,604 LTG 8.85 11,123: 98,439/ 9.90 110,118 MAXS 4.00 25,062: 100,248/ 3.13 78,444 Mreit 12.18 8,210: 99,998/ 13.0 106,730 RCI .460 196.08k 90,197/ 2.62 513,730 ROCK 1.32 71,429: 94,286/ 1.47 105,001 VLL. 1.60 59,880: 95,808/ 1.53 91,616 ====. ====. 887.6K/ ==== 1406.8k Cash* ==== ==== 100.0K/ ==== 100.0k Watch ==== ==== 987.6K/ 1506.8k +52.6% Vs. PSEI 5,974. 6,629. +11.0% ======

Update, INFRA and Tony Teo's companies. Green and ANI, xx ANI-etc : P0.59, / GREEN: P0.24 = 246% from 2018: Sym: Last : BkVal.: PER : EPS : Div., Div.Y% ( Range ) INFRA P0.51, 39.55, 0.931x 0.540: 0.000, N / A ( 0.42- 0.88 ) GREEN P0.24, P0.97, N / A -0.010: 0.000, N / A ( .205- 1.39 ) ANI : P0.59, P4.46, N / A -0.010: 0.000, N / A ( 0.45- 7.60 ) == INFRA: x

UROY /Uranium Royalties (2.27)=URC (3.12) / CCJ (49.16)=4.62%, URA (29.18), uroy.wt (x) Ratio: UROY (2.27) /CCJ (49.16)=4.62% x

MARC's bottom may be in place, near 0.75 MARC, Last 0.85 ===

CDC : 0.70, / BV: 1.73 =40.5%, PER: 4.164, EPS: 0.168, Div.: 0.029, Yield: 4.11% LAND: 0.80, / BV: 1.75 =45.7%, PER: 8.105, EPS: 0.099, Div.: 0.087, Yield: 10.9% CDC vs.LAND : 0.70 / 0.80= 87.5%

ARIS Mining has been a solid winner. One of the very few Gold miners able to keep up with UGL (2x Gold) and even beat it! ARIS.t (C$5.38) / UGL ($78.13)= 6.89%, Gdxj ($41) .. 5.5/86= 6.4%. 2020: '22: My largest position, though I am downsizing a bit now, at these levels. The expiration of WtB on Friday, may clean out some of the stale longs in the wts., who don't want to exercise, paying C$2.21 per warrant B. Last chart of WtB here maybe? wtB: w/o trendlines ===

FLI : 0.70 / BV: 3.89 =18.0%, PER: 4.507, EPS: 0.155, Div.: 0.036, Yield: 5.14% FILRT: 2.69 / BV: 8.45 =31.8%, PER: 7.544, EPS: 0.357, Div.: 0.028, Yield: 10.4% FILrt : 2.69 / BV: 8.45 =31.8%, PER: 7.544, EPS: 0.357, Div.: 0.028, Yield: 10.4%

GERI : 0.83 MEG : 1.80 ELI : 0.16 GERI : Hidden Value? (pg.33, 2023 Annual Report) Valuation : YE’2022 : YE’2023: Appraised : 30,414M : 31,698M: Cash Flow : 9,936M : 15,338M: Disc. Rate : ( 8.61%) : ( 7.80%) : =“Surplus” : 20,478M: 16,360M : / 10.99Bn sh 1.86 : 1.49 : +BookValue: 3.48 : 3.64 : BV+Surplus: 5.34 : 5.13 : Yr.E -Prices: 0.93 : 0.95 : P0.83 BV+Surplus : 17.4% : 18.5% : 16.2% Outstanding debts (loans) 9,494M x8%= P759M / Rent: 552M = 137.5% (EXCERPT, From Report): Based on management’s estimate, the fair value of building and improvements amounted to P15,338.6 million and P9,935.8 million as determined by calculating the present value of the cash inflows anticipated until the end of the life of the investment properties using a discount rate of 7.80% and 8.61% as at December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively. On the other hand, the fair value of land and land development and improvements amounted to P31,697.9 million and P30,413.5 million as determined through appraisals by independent valuation specialists using market-based valuation approach where prices of comparable properties are adequate for specific market factors such as location and condition of the property as at December 31, 2023 and 2022. RENTALS Rental revenues recognized in 2023, 2022 and 2021 amounted to P551.6 million, P456.0 million and P408.9 million, respectively, and are presented as Rental Income account under Revenues and Income section of the consolidated statements of comprehensive income [see Notes 19.1 and 25.2(a)]. Depreciation charges substantially represent the direct costs in leasing these properties.

What Is the Most Successful Franchise in the Philippines? 1. Jollibee (JFC) It is the largest fast-food chain in the Philippines and one of the fastest-growing Asian restaurant chains in the world with over 1,400 stores worldwide. Jollibee is a well-known fast food chain in the Philippines that specializes in burgers, fried chicken, and various Filipino dishes. It has gained immense popularity among Filipinos of all ages and has become a symbol of Filipino culture and pride. With its catchy jingle, friendly bee mascot, and delicious menu offerings, Jollibee has captured the hearts of millions. Founded: January 28, 1978 / Headquarters: Pasig City, Philippines 2. Mang Inasal / Edgar Sia II ( Acq'd by JFC, 2010, 70%; 2016, 30% ) It is a popular fast-food chain known for its grilled chicken and rice meals. It has over 500 branches in the Philippines and has expanded to other countries like the USA, Qatar, and Kuwait. Mang Inasal is a popular fast-food chain in the Philippines, specializing in serving traditional Filipino grilled chicken. It started as a small restaurant in Iloilo City in 2003 and quickly gained nationwide popularity. Mang Inasal is known for its unique dining experience, where customers are encouraged to eat with their bare hands using banana leaves as plates. ( Reasonable Prices: Mang Inasal offers affordable meals, making it accessible to a wide range of customers.) 3. Greenwich Pizza / Cresida Tueres ( 80%, JFC, 1994 ) It is a pizza and pasta chain that has been operating in the Philippines for over 40 years. It has more than 300 stores nationwide and is known for its affordable prices and delicious food. Greenwich Pizza is a popular pizza franchise in the Philippines known for its distinct taste and unique flavor combinations. It was created by businessman Cresida Tueres in 1971 and has since become one of the most successful pizza chains in the country 4. Chowking (acq'd by JFC, 2020) It is a Chinese fast-food chain that serves a variety of dishes such as noodles, dim sum, and rice meals. It has more than 600 stores in the Philippines and has expanded to other countries like the USA, UAE, and Qatar. 5. Goldilocks (74% owned by SM Retail ) It is a popular bakeshop chain that offers a wide range of cakes, pastries, and Filipino delicacies. It has over 400 stores in the Philippines and has expanded to other countries like the USA, Canada, and Singapore. 6. Max's Restaurant / Maximo Gimenez (MAXS) It is a Filipino restaurant chain that is best known for its fried chicken and Filipino-style dishes. It has more than 200 stores in the Philippines and has expanded to other countries like the USA, Canada, and Qatar. 7. Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA, and Po family) It is a pizza chain that has been operating in the Philippines for over 40 years. It is known for its thin-crust pizza, chicken, and mojos. It has more than 200 stores nationwide and has expanded to other countries like the USA, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. 8. 7-Eleven (Japan: JP:3382 ) It is a convenience store chain that has over 2,800 stores in the Philippines. It offers a wide range of products such as snacks, drinks, and groceries. 9. Uncle Johns (was Ministop, acq'd by Robinsons, 2022) It is a convenience store chain that has over 2,000 stores in the Philippines. It offers a wide range of products such as snacks, drinks, and groceries. It is known for its fried chicken and other food items. 10. Dunkin' Donuts / William Rosenberg (Prieto family + Pernod Ricard ) It is a popular donut and coffee chain that has been operating in the Philippines for over 30 years. It has over 1,400 stores nationwide and is known for its delicious donuts and coffee. > source:

AGI to-MEG: AGI (9.69) /MEG (1.80)= 5.38x; AGI-to-JFC (232)= 4.18%. MReit: 13.06, 135%, at 4.24 3.17.24: AGI (9.80) / MEG (1.92)= 5.10x; AGI-to-JFC (264)= 3.71%. MReit: 13.50, 138%