Triple Flag, vs. 2X Gold ..   40x Feb$10, 40x Jul$10

TFPM : $16.36 /UGL: $79.46= 20.6%  GDX ($34.58, 47.3%) 4.26.24 
03.27.24: $14.45/ $72.26= 20.0%, /$30.96= 46.7% 
12.29.23: $13.31/ $63.87 = 20.8%, /$31.01=  42.9% 
07.01.22 : $13.05/ $56.45= 23.1%, /$28.16=  46.3%  

===

TFPM ($13.31) $10 Call, feb.15: 3.30-3.60: 3.45 = 13.45 / 0.231= $58.22>$63.87, +9.7%

Ratio: TFPM : $16.36 /UGL: $79.86= 20.6%, YE'23: $13.31 /$63.87= 20.8%

LTG : Jul.'23: mid-2017: ytd: Last: P8.98

mid-2017: ytd: Last: P8.98

Mid-17-w/PSEI :

AB. from xx. 2022: ytd: Last: 5.07

BREAKOUT? Watch T-toR Ratio (Top: 13%?)             : List, GOLD Royalty Cos.

Gold Royalty co's are all BID going into Easter!  Big Breakout coming next? 

/ RGLD 124.6 = Tfpm 16.36, 13.1%, Sand 5.63, 4.5%; Fnv 122.9, 98.6%, at 4.26

3.28.24 / 121.8= Tfpm 14.45, 11.9%, Sand 5.25, 4.3%; Fnv 119.2, 97.9%

Ratio: TFPM to-RGLD: 11.9%; B@10%, S@13%

== OLDER follows...

FNV / Franco Nevada: 3.12.24: $113.03 / rgld-$112.04= 91.6%

12.29.23: $110.81 / rgld-$120.96= 91.6%

FNV-etc: UGL: 00.00, gdx: 00.00, 20.0%, rgld: 120.0, 00.0%. fnv: 100.0, 00.0%

Ye'2023: / UGL: 00.00, gdx: 00.00, 20.0%, rgld: 120.0, 00.0%. fnv: 100.0, 00.0%

w/TFPM ($13.31) vs-UGL ($63.87): 20.8%

UGL ($63.87) vs.GLD ($191.17) = 33.4%, HK-Gold ($1,502): w/AGQ (27.17): w/SIL (28.37):

UGL-to-GLD

Ratio: FNV to_RGLD: 92.6%

• Barron's: This Is One of the Best-Run Big Energy Companies. Shares Look Cheap, Too.

BITO: $20.49, -0.33, -1.59% / BTC:  $42.25k -$250

MARA: $23.49 -4.63, -16.4%; RIOT: $15.47 -2.13, -12.1%, HIVE: $4.53 -0.81, - 15.2%

• Crypto miner Marathon Digital’s shares fall nearly 18%, on pace for worst day since January 

Shares of crypto miner Marathon Digital Holdings fell nearly 18% to as low as $23.07 on Friday afternoon, putting the stock on pace for its worst day since Jan. 18 after logging an impressive rally earlier this month.

Marathon’s stock MARA rebounded slightly over the course of the afternoon session, but was still down 16% to $23.60 as of 3:30 p.m. Eastern time, according to FactSet data.

GROW (2.88)/GDXJ (38.20)=7.54%; HIVE (5.34): 53.8%. pe:14.9, Y: 3.13%, BV: 3.58

Grow-etc, since July'21: 

===

RE:Silver Up, Again

GSVR DOWN on Upgrade interruptions, and Tax Selling?  0.275 +0.01, / SIL: $28.94: 0.95%

@lexconThe $26 AISC is the overall composite AISC. VMC (Valenciana and San Ignacio) is under $20 and Topia is just over $21. El Cubo is over $32 and is that high partially due to the significant reduction in processed tonnage lately while dewatering. In 3Q 76% of the production came from the two low cost centers (El Cubo was ramped down). In a recent interview James said they are already seeing improvements at Topia with the structural changes to contract mining. Does that put that processing plant under $21 AISC soon? Who knows? But they are adding faces and new stopes at El Cubo with the dewatering progress---the dewater is ongoing for some while yet to get to where they want to be but has already opened up some accessible higher grade zones. As they put that higher grade ore thru the mill at El Cubo they likely will ramp up production totals accordingly as well. Any increase in tonnage at El Cubo spreads the fixed costs over larger number of ounces and reduces AISC at that location. I believe James did state it will take 3 or 4 more quarters to get composite AISC down where they want to see it at, where they are targeting and when they can slow the capital spending rate. But simple math says if VMC remains constant, if Topia has a slight reduction in AISC and if El Cubo increases tonnage and grade (reducing the current AISC from $32.67 to anything lower) then we should see some reduction in AISC for each of those next 4 quarters---ie, we won't remain at $26+ elevated AISC for the next 4 quarters and then see a step change lower---rather I expect to see a steady decline in AISC over each of the next four quarters (showing a positive trend change) with the end AISC much lower than current.

AG beginning to play catch-up.  $6.26 vs Range (4.38 to 9.075) / 10.0% of UGL ($63.36), SIL ($28.94): 21.6%

AG ($6.26) / Silver ($24.63)=25.4%,  / AGQ ($28.07)=22.3%

Ratio: $6.26 /SIL ($28.94): 21.6% 

GROW (2.88)/GDXJ (38.20)=7.54%; HIVE (5.34): 53.8%. pe:14.9, Y: 3.13%, BV: 3.58

Grow-etc, since July'21: 

===

GROW (2.84) /UGL (63.36)=4.48%, GDXJ (38.83): 7.31%, +HIVE:

HIVE DIGITAL ANNOUNCES $25 MILLION BOUGHT DEAL PRIVATE PLACEMENT FINANCING TO HODL OUR BITCOIN PRODUCTION AND EXPAND GREEN MINING FOOTPRINT BY 100MW

Mr. Frank Holmes reports

Hive Digital Technologies Ltd. has entered into an agreement with Stifel Canada and Canaccord Genuity as co-lead underwriters and joint bookrunners, whereby the underwriters will purchase, on a bought deal basis, five million special warrants of the company at a price of $5 per special warrant for aggregate gross proceeds to the company of $25-million. The completion of the offering will be subject to receipt of all necessary regulatory and corporate approvals or consents.

The company will grant the underwriters an option to increase the size of the offering by up to an additional 15 per cent of the special warrants sold under the offering, exercisable in whole or in part, at any time and from time to time up to 48 hours prior to the closing date (as hereinafter defined).

Each special warrant shall entitle the holder thereof to receive, subject to adjustment in certain circumstances and the penalty provision (as defined below), and without payment of additional consideration, one unit of the company upon the exercise or deemed exercise of each special warrant. Each unit shall consist of one common share of the company and one-half of one common share purchase warrant. Each warrant will entitle the holder thereof to purchase one common share of the company at a price of $6 per warrant share for a period of 36 months following the closing of the offering

> more:  https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item/Z-C!HIVE-3494816/C/HIVE

AG ($6.32 +0.22) may be finally breaking put above resistance near $6.40 / SIL ($28.78 +0.71): 21.95%

AG Weekly

Barrick GOLD in upswing

Ratio: GOLD (18.09) to UGL (62.66): r-0.289

FRANCO : "A Pile of Money, sitting in the corner... Panana was only 15% of NAV. FNV down 30%"

FRANCO NEVADA - Time to BUY after the CRASH?

World renowned commodities investor Jim Rogers' investing style is pretty straightforward: He waits patiently until he spots a pile of cash just lying around, and then he swoops in to claim it. And right now, Franco Nevada FNV, the world's premier gold company, is exactly that—a pile of money waiting to be picked up! So, why am I so excited about Franco Nevada stock right now? Well, for starters, it's not every day that this top-tier gold company goes on sale. When it does, it's usually a sign to grab some shares.

They own around 400 assets, with the crown jewel being the Cobre Panama copper mine. It's a massive operation down in Panama. But here's where it gets interesting. About a year ago, the Panamanian government threatened to shut down the mine. They thought they had resolved the issue, but recently, the mine was officially closed. This closure caused FNV's stock price to tumble by about 30%. However, this drop seems like an overreaction. The Cobre Panama mine represents only about 15% of Franco Nevada's total net asset value. So logically, even in the worst-case scenario where the mine never reopens, the stock should have only dipped by around 15%. But I don't think we're looking at the worst-case scenario here. Let's dive a bit deeper. This mine is crucial to Panama's economy, contributing about 5% to the country's GDP. It's also one of Panama's largest employers and tax revenue sources. If it stays closed, it would become a significant liability for the country.

SAND "plan to reduced debt by $100M by late 2024"

Greenstone project of EQX, to us is "very material"

Good interview  / Sandstorm Gold Royalties: Investor Update

Triple Flag Precious Metals.  Support at $13.00

TFPM : last $13.65 / UGL ($62.66)= 21.8%, PER: 58.2x, Yield: 1.50%, BV: $9.03

TFPM : last $13.65

Gold Royalty Co’s “Fair Values”  (at Dec.'23)

Sym. :   Last  :   B.V. :  P/BV :  Anal. :  F.V.  : +/disc :
FNV  :  111.65 : 35.24: 317%: $220 : $130.: - 14.1%
(peak)  161.0 : 35.24: 457%: $220 : 160.e:  same?
RGLD: 122.75: 39.48: 311%: $100. : $82.5: +48.8%
SAND: $ 5.07: $4.73: 107%:  5.00e: $4.29: +18.2%
TFPM: $13.65: $9.03: 151% : 19.28: 28.67: -52.4%
GROY: $ 1.53:  $3.64: 42.0% $2.00:  2.00: 
====

Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Franco-Nevada Corporation (TSE:FNV)

Simply Wall St, Published November 10, 2023

Key Insights, C$180 /1.33= $135; Current C$166= $125

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Franco-Nevada fair value estimate is CA$180
• Current share price of CA$166 suggests Franco-Nevada is potentially trading close to its fair value
• Analyst price target for FNV is US$220, which is 22% above our fair value estimate

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Franco-Nevada Corporation (TSE:FNV) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Is Franco-Nevada Fairly Valued?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

10 yr. Highlights:   2024   :   2027   :   2030  :  2033  :

Levered Free CF:  $1.04B : $1.32B  : $1.51B  : $1.64B :

Growth source  : 6x anal. : 6.93%e:  4.38%e: 2.52%e

PV. at 7.2%        :  $972M :  $829M :

    = Total P.V.    :  $9.2B / 192 M sh = $47.92 per sh.

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)

Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$9.2b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.2%.

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$32b÷ ( 1 + 7.2%)¹⁰= US$16b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is $9B + 16B= US$25b  ( /192m=  $130.) In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CA$166, the company appears about fair value at a 7.8% discount to where the stock price trades currently. 

=== > https://simplywall.st/stocks/ca/materials/tsx-fnv/franco-nevada-shares/news/calculating-the-intrinsic-value-of-franco-nevada-corporation

DELM sliding.  1.10.24: P6.20.  (Range: 6.05 to 14.20 ) PER: N/A. Yield: 1.18%,  BV: 9.08, Price was 6.48

New Meetup for the START UP community:  starts meeting in 2024 (in BGC)

Group Description: Calling all Manila entrepreneurs, dreamers, and future moguls! The BGC scene is buzzing with innovative energy, and we're here to turn that spark into a full-blown inferno!  

Join us for a casual happy hour in BGC to meet other movers and shakers to see what this community attracts. We'll get started after 30 minutes from the start time, have some quick introductions, share ideas for the group, and then continue networking.

You're especially going to LOVE this event if you are an online business owner, a CEO with many (or hundreds) of employees, or simply someone who's greatly educated in the business field and interested in startups.

You're going to HATE this event, if you're looking to sell your service to anyway and shoving business cards down everyone's throat. And you'll hate not being invited back if you are selling real estate or anything focused on selling. This is a group to grow together and we expect your guidance and expertise on GROWING A BUSINESS, before we talk about the possibility of who you sell to and if anyone in the group is even the right person...

Cheers, waiting for your RSVP, you know who you are.

PS first event will be separate tabs. No freebies until we get to know this crew.

See the group> https://www.meetup.com/startup-manila/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=braze_canvas&utm_campaign=mmrk_alleng_new_group_announcement_prod_v6_en&utm_term=promo&utm_content=lp_meetup

New Meetup for the START UP community:  starts meeting in 2024 (in BGC)

Group Description: Calling all Manila entrepreneurs, dreamers, and future moguls! The BGC scene is buzzing with innovative energy, and we're here to turn that spark into a full-blown inferno!  

See the group> https://www.meetup.com/startup-manila/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=braze_canvas&utm_campaign=mmrk_alleng_new_group_announcement_prod_v6_en&utm_term=promo&utm_content=lp_meetup

PSEI vs UKX, etc: 6545 / 7638 = 85.7%. / tlt-$98.89, r66.2,  HSI (16,678)

==

Someone may have seen this plan. and LIKES IT

FNV ($111.65) / UGL ($62.66)= r178% vs RGLD ($122.75)= 90.95%, at 12.19.23

Ratio: FNV ($111.65) / UGL ($62.66)= r178%

vs RGLD ($122.75)= 90.95%; 1/.9065= 1.103

(105C +12.90-11)= 107 / 120C= 89.2%; 1/.892 = 1.12

Fortuna vs Silver. updated

FSM ... 1/2021: 1/2022:  $3.99 +0.13 / 22.03= 18.1%, sil-28.65 at 12.19.23

12.27.22: $3.96 +0.12 / 22.11= 17.9%, sil-29.41

INFLATION & RATE etfs, 12.18.23, 4.07% +2.1%=6.16%, Phl.10yr,

/ DBA (21.02),  XLE (84.18, r4.00x), OIH (307.92, r14.65), TYX (40.69, r1.94x)

/ DBA (21.02),  XLE (84.18, r4.00x), OIH (307.92, r14.65), UDN (18.18)

GDXJ - OIH  vs UDN, SLV ... fr.1/2008 w/Dba : 7/2008 w/Dba :  updated: 12.18.23