enrieb

Gold/Dow ratio just under 11 to 1. Peter Schiffs target was 10 to 1 for year end.

It was Smufs who were the communists. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Smurfs The Smurfs' community generally takes the form of a cooperative, sharing and kind environment based on the principle that each Smurf has something he or she is good at, and thus contributes it to Smurf society as he or she can. In return, each Smurf appears to be given their necessities of life, from housing and clothes to food. Some have argued that the foundation of Smurf society resembles the basic principles of Communism, although Peyo's son, Thierry Culliford, has stated in an interview that his father "wasn't interested in politics at all" More info here http://www.iamlost.com/features/smurfs/commies.shtml Little Red Riding Hood had no connection with economics and is in some versions used more of a morality tale warning young girls to stay on the path, there is an excellent film called The Company of Wolves (1984) by Neil Jordon, who directed Interview with a Vampire, which explores this theme based on a series of short stories by Angela Carter. Charles Perrault explained the 'moral' at the end so that no doubt is left to his intended meaning: From this story one learns that children, especially young lasses, pretty, courteous and well-bred, do very wrong to listen to strangers, And it is not an unheard thing if the Wolf is thereby provided with his dinner. I say Wolf, for all wolves are not of the same sort; there is one kind with an amenable disposition — neither noisy, nor hateful, nor angry, but tame, obliging and gentle, following the young maids in the streets, even into their homes. Alas! Who does not know that these gentle wolves are of all such creatures the most dangerous!

I'm not asking that we restrict free speech, I fully encourage alternate views, its just when people use statements to refute others arguments it causes problems because they can easily claim that the statements they made were not made in response to the original argument. If the statement is put into a sentence that makes it clear about what its role is in the discourse whether it is being used to refute a point or if it is just a random comment, then it helps clarify arguments that distract from the investment topics. I'm sorry if I've gone about posting that in a style that offends you or anyone else. I didn't think I needed to be an administrator or have some kind of special credentials to call attention to that. Using statements on their own in response to peoples posts causes problems.

This is what GF said here's what you said in responce The trouble with this sort of statement is not that it is statements are untrue, they are both truthful statements 1.Gold has dropped during a financial crisis (fact) 2.Gold did crash in 1980 (fact) But you did say these two factual statements in response to GFs point, and then followed with an opinion that by following the jewelry market, the price movements in gold can be easily explained (opinion) Now you seem to be saying that you made these statements completely randomly and that they have no relationship to the discourse that you and GF were engaged in. You were careful not to put them into sentences that would have directly challenged GFs point, as I suspect you knew just how weak the point was, this gives you plausible denibility to retract the statements with the following truthful statement. I never said the spike was due to jewelry. Almost certainly not. I have reconstructed the discourse, using WMs statments (in bold) and making them into basic sentences that reply to GFs points. Here's how it should have looked, or indeed how the brain reconstructs the series of truthful statements. GF: In a financial crisis where investors wake up to gold for good, lack of jewellery demand won't matter much. WM: I disagree with you opinion that gold is a good investment in a finical crisis, if it were a good investment then Why has gold dropped in price during a financial crisis then? Why did gold crash in 1980, the very day that recession hit the US? WM:I do not think that investment demand is responsible for the price movements in gold. I am just saying that by following the jewelry market, the price movements in gold can be easily explained. GF: I think it is factually completely wrong to claim that the spike in 1980 was coming from jewellery buying/selling. All reports I have ever read implied that the spike was solely caused by investors and central banks. Jewellery played no role as entirely expected and logical. WM: I never said the spike was due to jewelry. Almost certainly not. Obviously the non bold part has been added by me, as WM would never dream of making such claims. I have put the seemingly random statements into sentences that directly challenge GFs sentence. Of course when this is done the position looks a bit silly and is hard to defend, thats why the discourse takes place as a series of truthful statements. The reader is left to connect the random statements into a sentence the makes sense as part of the discourse between GF and WM The only explanation given by goldbugs for the falls we have seen during the biggest financial crisis in living memory are mysterious secret organisation 1. There are many reasons for the recent price fall in gold, 2. and no goldbug is claiming that this is done by mysterious secret organisation Now I don't mean to be picking on Wrongmove here, and I'm sorry if it comes across in that way, because everyone does it from time to time. The use of seemingly random 'truthful statements' causes problems in discussions and arguments because one can go back and deny that they meant the 'truthful statement' as a response to points made in the discourse. The lesson is that next time someone makes a 'truthful statement' in response to a point or argument, ask them to put it into a sentence that follows on from what has been said. If they are not willing to do so then the 'truthful statement' should be disregarded as a 'random statement' that has nothing to do with the discourse. Responding to truthful statements in a discussion or argument gives the protagonist the chance to deny that they meant the statement in response to the discussion.

*cough* I have done weight training in gyms for many years, I have also worked in metal fabrication firms where I daily have to move around lots of 50kgs bags of abrasive grit and occasionally have to lift objects far in excess of 100kgs. So I do know exactly how heavy 100kgs is. 100kgs is a very heavy weight and if its in the form of a 50cm by 3cm disc then it is a dead weight, not a weight most people would be able to lift comfortably without doing themselves some serious damage. True that a fit healthy adult is easily capable of lifting weights much greater than 100kgs, if done in the correct manner, but what percentage of the population are that fit. At a guess based on observations at work and at gyms I would say at best 10% of the population are capable of lifting a 100kg barbell comfortably and if its in the form of a dead weight then that figure would be 5%. Carrying a person using a fireman's lift technique or lifting 100kg on a barbell is very different from lifting a dead weight that does not have anything you can grip with your hands. The 100kgs gold coin mentioned above is similar in size to the 50kgs Olympic weight plates that you will find in the gym. That shows just how dense and heavy the gold is compared to the cast iron weights. The plates stop at 50kgs for a reason, to get a good idea of what its like to lift a 100kgs gold coin try lifting two on their own without a bar. I'm going to the gym this morning so I will give it a try, although I doubt I will be able to get my fingers underneath two 50kg plates if they are on a flat surface

On the coin picture it does actually have 100kg stamped on the coin, but how would a person even lift such a thing? Here's a Jim Rodgers interview from the 24th oct, he's been buying gold and still expects massive inflation and a continuation of the commodities bull market. http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=mBVC3H8Pgc4 Also news from the Hindutimes about gold being a good investment http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/St...+best+bet+today It’s Dhanteras, the auspicious day that Hindus buy precious metals to usher in Diwali, but there is a sound economic reason for you to pick gold. At a time when investment in almost everything else — from stock to currency and oil futures — is fraught with uncertainty, investors and traders are increasingly turning to gold because it is safe and promises good returns. Of course, it’s also a good way to honour Dhanavantri, the physician to the Gods, after whom Dhanteras is so called. Gold prices have nearly doubled in the past six years and experts predict a continued climb, both in the short and the longer term, because supplies will continue to trail demand for several years. “People always want something to bet on,” said Prakash Khandelwal, a Mumbai broker. “Right now, it is gold.” Gold sales through this month have risen about 66 per cent from a year ago, according to the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation. The federation’s figures don’t include fast growing sale of gold coins by banks and post offices that now account for 10 per cent total gold sales in the country. “I am short of salesmen because of the rush,” said Kumar Jain Kumar Jain, who owns a jewellery store, Umedmal Tilockchand Zaveri, in South Mumbai. “People are booking gold in advance for Dhanteras.” Jain said. In recent days, gold prices have fallen as central banks worldwide have been selling gold to boost liquidity. As a result, prices have become more attractive than they were some weeks ago. On Saturday, gold prices closed at Rs 11,900 per 10 grams. Investing in gold makes sense, also because “it is extremely liquid and is a good hedge against inflation”, said Keyur Shah, Associate Director of World Gold Council, a grouping of the world’s leading gold producers. Like everything else that is trade, gold prices also go up and down, but are much less volatile than stocks, Shah said. “It is the best investment for long run,” said Vanita Gowani, a Mumbai-based garment trader. “It would be profitable even for my next generation.” Especially with double digit inflation in India atm. http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/St...+concern%3a+RBI With inflation still in double-digits, the Reserve Bank has not tinker with key rates in its credit policy to push up growth as it has to balance price stability and growth. "There are inflationary concerns (in the economy) even though in a mathematical sense, it is coming down...We have to balance the concerns of maintaining price stability and sustaining growth," Reserve Bank Governor D Subbarao told reporters here today. After injecting Rs 1,85,000-crore liquidity into the banking system through various monetary and fiscal measures, including a 2.5 per cent cut in cash reserve ratio and a one per cent cut in key short-term repo rate in recent weeks, the Reserve Bank left its rates unchanged in the credit policy unveiled on Friday. While the apex bank has lowered the growth rate to 7.5-8 per cent for FY'09, it has retained the earlier inflation target of lowering it to seven per cent by March-end. Inflation continued to be a matter of concern as the RBI forecast is based on not merely the wholesale price index but also other data, he said. "The RBI makes a deeper study and if one analyses the consumer price index, the CPI for agricultural and rural labour was up by 11 per cent and that for industry was up 9 per cent," he said. Oil prices, though declining still continued to be volatile and kharif output, though promising, is forecasted to be lower, he said, adding that "a weakening rupee also adds to inflationary pressures." The RBI has announced its monetary policy in the light of these concerns and balanced the need for financial and price stability while propping up sagging growth, he said. Inflation fell to 11.07 per cent for the week ended October 11.

From a personal point of view I do agree with Goldfinger, and I do think that at least to me, the commentators credibly is improved by the them also choosing to put their money where there mouth is, similar to what DrBubb said in the Commodity Watch podcast after the Fred Harrison interview. But my point is that the commentator is then exposed to the 'your just saying that because it makes you money' attack which is often used in the mainstream media channels (and Internet trolls) to discredit peoples positions. This is almost always an unjust criticism because the most important thing about the advice given, is not whether it makes money for the economic commentator, it is that the economic advice is based on sound and consistent judgment and that the commentator has a proven track record of good advice. Such as people like Peter Schiff/Jim Rodgers etc... We all here are quite well informed about economics and investment so we know if advice is based on sound judgment of the fundamentals, but the public who are not well informed about the subjects are easily deceived by the 'your just saying that because it makes you money' attack. Which we will often see used against Schiff/Rodgers etc... on the news channels. We know its a baseless attack, but the uninformed public are swayed by it. This works both ways though I can think of celebrity BTL investors that were hailed as 'property experts' for putting their money where their mouth was, but in their case the sound judgment of the fundamentals were not present, as we all pointed out at the time, and the celebrity investors simply performed the role of Judas Goats leading the bewildered herd to a slaughterhouse. The only time that the VI attack 'your just saying that because it makes you money' is valid is when the person is giving the advice and the sound fundamentals are not present and they have a track record of making bad economic calls, like the so called experts on Fox Business news who advise people to buy financial share's when it was these same people telling people to buy real estate at the peak or dot com shares in the tech bubble.

I think the fact that Roubini isn't making money from investments that will perform well if his predictions come to fruition give him more credibility as an economic commentator. It's not that Puplava, Schiff, Rodgers, Bubb, Sinclar etc.. don't have the same credibility, because they do, and have been very accurate in what they have been saying for years. Its just that critics can easily say that Schiff, Puplava etc.. are just promoting their business and talking up their investments. I know thats not a very credible attack when you look at the what they have been saying for all these years, but it is often used to undermine their position in the eyes of the great uninformed public.

£543 w00t! Time for a special rocket video, a glimpse at the potential space program that the UK could create if we were to put the might of our financial powerhouse economy behind it. http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=ldDdqyG_M28

Is £538 a record sterling price for gold?

Its almost 10 ounces of gold to buy the Dow at the moment!

Yes they would be hard to stack. I quite like the look of the coin, but will stick with just one in the collection. Its good to have at least one of each major coin, so that you have one to compare to any other potential future purchases and spot fakes.

Its not fake, thats what they are like, the thing that usually makes people suspicious of them is the edge of the coin varying in thickness http://www.taxfreegold.co.uk/goldbuffalos.html Wavy Lines - Variable Edge Thickness In February 2007, one of our customers telephoned to query the "faulty " edge on his gold buffalo. We took a look at our stock, and every one was the same. Because of the realistic sculpting and relief of the coin, the edge varies in thickness between 2.6 and 3.25 millimetres. We do not consider this to be a fault, rather a design feature.

US Mint halts some American Eagle coin production Tue 7 Oct 2008, 12:02 GMT http://africa.reuters.com/metals/news/usnN07435260.html NEW YORK, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Unprecedented demand for precious metals and volatile markets forced the U.S. Mint to cease production for the half-ounce and quarter-ounce popular American Eagle gold coins for the rest of this year and to supply other bullion coins on an allocation basis. "Due to the extreme fluctuating market conditions for 2008, as well as current market conditions, gold and silver demand is unprecedented and the demand for platinum is unusually high," the U.S. Mint said in a Monday memorandum to its authorized coin dealers. "The U.S. Mint has worked diligently to attempt to meet demand, however, blank supplies are very limited and it is necessary for the U.S. Mint to focus remaining bullion production primarily on American Eagle Gold One Ounce and Silver One Ounce Coins," the Mint said. The Mint said it would continue to supply one-ounce American Eagle gold coins and one-ounce American Eagle silver coins on an allocation basis to coin dealers. For half-ounce and quarter-ounce American Eagles, the Mint said that inventory was depleted last week and no more coins would be produced for 2008. Produced from gold mined in the United States, the American Eagles have been novel items among collectors and investors since their introduction in 1986. Each coin has a face value of $50 but it is sold by authorized dealers at a premium to the price of gold. Coin dealers from the United States to Canada have recently reported a surge in buying of bullion coins and other gold products as a worsening crisis in the financial markets prompted people to seek a safe haven in precious metals. (Reporting by Frank Tang; Editing by John Picinich) Dubai September gold jewellery sales up 32% By: Reuters Published on 7th October 2008 Updated 4 hours ago http://www.miningweekly.com/article.php?a_id=144685 Gold jewellery sales in Dubai rose 32 percent in September from a year earlier after gold prices fell, the emirate's industry group said on Tuesday. But September sales fell 3 percent from August after a buying spree that started in July ahead of a Muslim holiday, Dubai Gold and Jewellery Group managing director Tawhid Abdullah told Reuters. "Prices have come off their peak for the year and that helped contribute to the overbuying in July and August, he said. Gold prices dipped to $748.34 an ounce in September - a 12-month low, while the monthly gold average price dropped more than 15 percent from its all-time high of $1030.80 an ounce, hit in March. Buying ahead of the fasting month of Ramadan and the Eid feast, during which many couples marry, had contributed to the overbuying from July through August, Tawhid said. Tax-free jewellery shopping in the United Arab Emirates -- a seven-member federation that includes Abu Dhabi and Dubai, known as the "City of Gold" - lures many Gulf and Western tourists. Spot gold traded around $883 an ounce on Tuesday.

I don't think we are anywhere near the mania phase yet. The bullion will be bought up by the smart money and the institutional investors over the next few years. James Turk has always said that by the time gold approaches the mania stage, the man in the street just won't be able to get hold of any. In the mania stage the general public will not be able to get hold of bullion coins and bars they will have to make do with 9ct chains and rings from Argos.

I quite like the look of them, I only have one though. The only thing I dislike about it, is the way the edge varies in thickness between 2.6 and 3.25 millimetres as you turn it around. I can imagine that they wouldn't stack too well

U.S. Mint suspends Buffalo gold coins after depletion Thursday, September 25, 2008 Reuters http://www.canada.com/topics/news/world/st...85-4128914674e1 NEW YORK - The U.S Mint said Thursday it was temporarily suspending sales of American Buffalo 24-karat gold one-ounce bullion coins because strong demand depleted its inventory. "Demand has exceeded supply for American Buffalo 24-karat gold one-ounce bullion coins, and our inventories have been depleted. We are, therefore, temporarily suspending sales of these coins," the Mint said in a memorandum to authorized American Buffalo dealers. The Mint also told dealers that it would work to build up its inventory to resume sales shortly. In mid-August, a shortage of American Eagle one-ounce gold coins due to "unprecedented" demand had also forced the U.S. Mint to temporarily suspend sales of the popular coins. The Mint said Thursday it would continue to supply the American Eagle 22-karat gold one-ounce and American Eagle silver bullion coins on an allocation basis to coin dealers. In addition, the half-ounce, quarter-ounce, and 1-10th ounce American Eagle gold coins and American Eagle platinum were also available, the Mint said. Coin dealers from the United States to Canada have recently reported a surge in buying of bullion coins and other gold products as troubles in the financial markets prompted people to seek a safe haven in precious metals. On Thursday, the U.S. gold contract for December delivery ended down $13 or 1.5 percent at $882 an ounce on the COMEX division of the NYMEX, while spot gold traded at $873 an ounce. Bullion hit an all-time high of $1,030.80 an ounce on March 17.

Its not really the best way to check a coin, but I just carried out your test on some of my coins. The copper had a very high pitched ring and the sovereign was a dull heavy sound.

In all the excitement of the past few weeks I forgot all about the Dow/gold ratio GoldUS$ 888 Dow Jones 10,854 12-1 it should hit 10-1 by the end of the year.

Oh no, no, no William Shatner is the Rock-it Man, burning out his fuse, out here alone! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvQwXOCKNLY...feature=related

I think I understand the point your making, I know that the gold price in terms of Sterling, Euro, Dollar etc do not move in perfect alignment but I do feel that even though the Dollar has enormous problems ahead of it, that its got a slightly better 'medium term' future than Sterling. The saving grace for the Dollar over the medium term is that it still remains the worlds reserve currency.

Absolutely! Its the point I made at the very start of this thread. Many GEI members from the UK bought gold as protection against Sterling losing value, which we all expected would happen at some point(including HPC's anti-goldbug RB) This strategy had paid off as an investment even though the dollar price of gold has fallen in the past 6 weeks, can you imagine how high the Sterling price of gold will be when gold jumps back up to the $1000 range. The fundamental problems are still there in the US/UK economies and these currencies will continue to lose value over the long term regardless of any short term bounce.

I pretty much agree, I don't see large conspiracies, more attempts, at times, to drive the price higher or lower to trigger market buy or sell orders that make money for the big players who could be covering short positions in the market. I do think that its useful for the gold price to be seen as a very volatile asset as this scares away the weak hands, those who understand the role gold plays in the market are comfortable with this risk, though if someone invests from a naive speculative perspective then they will be scared out of the market by the volatility. I think that it is important for Central banks and big market players to attempt take down the price of gold from time to time to make it seem like its no-longer a safe haven for investors. Small moves can trigger larger moves both up and down. In the end its all about risk, I could spend a lot of money and buy a house in the nice part of town and fit a good burglar alarm and feel quite safe about not being burgled, alternatively for far less money I could buy a house in the bad part of town and expect that it would be broken into at some point. If the nice house were to be burgled and the bad house were to be untouched it does not make my judgment of the risk unsound, its just the way events have unfolded over the short term. Ultimately, long term, if I wanted to feel secure and not have much risk I still would be better off buying the house in the nice part of town with the burglar alarm regardless of short term events.

I though he sounded quite confident and and consistent with what he has been predicting for the past five years. I suppose Puplava, Schiff and others may be under pressure to defend their investment strategy to new investors and listeners given the reversal of the dollar in the past 6 weeks, but I think that I trust their views on the economy more than I trust the mainstream. That does not mean that they cannot be wrong, just that I perceive less risk in following their advice than following the advice of the people who have been consistently wrong about all of these matters time and time again. A week of sunshine and high temperatures in November it doesn't mean that its Summer, we need to stick with the fundamentals of the financial climate regardless of the day to day weather. Try to remember that this CDO problem has only just begun. We have seen huge problems caused in the banking sector by the subprime defaults and we still have the option arms, Alt-A and Prime mortgages to come. We are probably witnessing the calm inside the eye of the storm, the good news is we are half way through this storm, the bad news its there are bigger storms on the way.

Off topic, but hey Van der Smut, Steve Netwriter has shown how you can edit your display name so that you can get it all on one line. Its in this thread here. http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....amp;#entry57296