enrieb

How about phrasing it this way, the bold is mine Think of it this way - The speculative value of my house has been half knocked down by a financial hurricane as the credit derivatives that flooded the market allowing people to bid up the price of houses unwind yet further and is about to fall over. The gubbermint gives the banks who caused the whole mess lots of free money in the hope that they may pass it to me so that i can buy enough bricks to shore up the lower levels so it won't collapse thus keeping the value of my house up in la la land. Hey, now I have loads of inflationary bricks I can sell or lend to other people who suffered storm damage, right? or better still I can now continue to Mew and borrow even more money to spend on goods that we import propping up our our service economy and sending even more money abroad so that foreign investors can reinvest it back into my country to borrow to other consumers!

The US military is the only thing holding up the dollar.

Its good to have two, they make that nice 'clink' sound when you drop them gently into your hand.

I've had a few people I know question if I still think gold is a good investment given the recent falls, but they are often quite surprised when I tell them that in terms of the falling pound the sterling price of gold is holding up quite well, unlike their other sterling denominated investments. $805 gold spot price is £450 You can look at the sterling price of gold on goldline.com and see Krugerrands at £482, Britannia, Panda and Eagles at £496 Gold only has to go back into the low $900s for the sterling spot price of gold to go over £500, then it would be difficult to by bullion coins for much less than £550. http://www.goldline.co.uk/bullionCoinsPage.page

(I stole this entire post from HPC, thanks Alfie Moon) From Reuters details of the 'rescue': LONDON (Reuters) - Prime Minister Gordon Brown will announce a package on Tuesday to prop up the slumping housing market. The Department for Communities and Local Government said the package would include: * A new mortgage rescue scheme to help 9,000 vulnerable families struggling with payments avoid losing their homes. Eligible home owners will have three options under the scheme: -- a registered social landlord clears all secured debt and occupants will then pay a rent they can afford. -- a registered social landlord buys a share in the home and converts the property to a shared ownership lease. -- a registered social landlord provides an equity loan allowing mortgage payments to be reduced. A government source said the scheme would cost about 300 million pounds. * A new shared equity scheme to help up to 10,000 first-time buyers earning less than 60,000 pounds buy new homes over the next two years. Buyers will be offered an equity loan of up to 30 percent of the house value, interest-free for five years, co-funded by the government and the housing developer. A government source said this scheme would also cost about 300 million pounds. * New social housing. The government will bring forward funding from existing budgets for affordable housing schemes which could deliver 5,500 more homes over the next 18 months. A government source said this measure would be worth 400 million pounds. see: http://uk.reuters.com/article/domesticNews...02?rpc=401& The 30% scheme to help FTB'ers will only be available for up to 10,000 FTB'ers - NOT ANY AND ALL FTB'ers!!! This 'rescue' will not stop the house price crash - it won't even put the brakes on a little bit. Move along, nothing to see here, etc.

'Free loans' offer to homebuyers Tuesday, 2 September 2008 08:28 UK http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7592852.stm The government is to promise first-time buyers in England "free" loans of up to 30% of their home's value, in an effort to reinvigorate the housing market. Households earning less than £60,000 will be offered loans free of charge for five years on new properties, co-funded by the state and developers. There is also speculation a Stamp Duty "holiday" could be included in the measures when they are unveiled later. The Tories said it was a "short-term survival plan" for the prime minister. House prices are reportedly falling at their fastest rate since the early 1990s, while rising fuel costs and the global credit crunch are denting economic confidence. Communities Secretary Hazel Blears will announce a raft of proposals on Tuesday aimed at buoying the property market. She is one of several cabinet ministers putting forward plans seen as the beginning of Mr Brown's "recovery plan". The loans system, called HomeBuy Direct, is to be run together with "large-scale" property firms. Once the five-year "free" period is up, homebuyers will be asked to pay a fee, the Department for Communities and Local Government said - although no more detail of this was provided. I think the 'free' 30% loan for 5 years is designed to trap foolish people, how will the 30% loan be paid back? simple, idiots will believe that this will kick-start the housing market and that the value of the house they buy will rise over the next five years. They will think that they can pay back the 30% loan with an increase in house prices. In reality this measure will trick people into allowing the government to own 30% of their home, thus nationalizing private housing by stealth and deception. This is of course economic insanity, when the Nasdaq shares fell in price we didn't give out 'free' 30% loans to temp first time share buyers into the market to support share prices, this is all going to end in tears. I am reminded of the scene in Jaws where the Hooper asks Quint if he has ever encountered a shark that is able to submerge with three barrels on it, Quint responds that he has never encountered this situation before and for the first time appears unsure of what to do. The shark continues to attack the boat and Quint powers his boat, retreating towards shore with the shark in pursuit. Quint hopes to draw the shark into shallow waters to beach it, that will cause it to drown. Hooper warns Quint to lower the pressure on the engine because he's going to overload it, at which point Quint increases the revs... Farewell and adieu to you, fair Spanish ladies. Farewell and adieu, you ladies of Spain. For we've received orders for to sail back to Boston. And so nevermore shall we see you again

Thanks for the links wrongmove, though you may not be retracting the statement you may have to change it as the links do not support the statement that Physical wasn't selling at those prices, it may be better the phrase it as Physical wasn't selling 'as much' at those prices. That may seem a bit pedantic, but I believe its necessary on a forum where the only thing we have with which to understand each others arguments are the words that are posted; unlike in normal conversation where a statement like that could be corrected in real time and not cause a fuss. A statement like 'physical wasn't selling at those prices' is simply not true as many people were buying physical, though admittedly based on your links not quite as many as before.

Since your asking Warpig to come up with some links to justify his statement, made in response to yours, could you be so kind as to return the favor and give some links to support your statement.

Welcome to the forum

Interesting yesterday, that you mentioned Gold moves are being driven by Oil moves, it reminded me of a Fox business panel discussion from last week on Peter Schiffs site, where Gary ?Calpol? was very instant that Oil prices are being moved by the Financial stocks. He said that Financial stocks are leading the market up and down and that when they top out, that will be it for the market. http://www.europac.net/Schiff-Fox-8-6-08_lg.asp

Thats a very good post and an interesting way of describing the problems.

I suspect this must have something to do with the recent fall in price. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7560485.stm Where the hell did spain get hold of $30bn all of a sudden?

I've been looking at that chart that seems an odd patten to me, Gold at $805 then rising to $820 for half an hour before falling back to $805, then falling to $793. I'm not really knowledgeable on charts but I've not seen anything similar to that since I've been following gold. I'm confused but still very confident about gold as an investment, I just wish I had some spare cash to buy right now.

Would anyone like to guess who made this prediction 6 months ago? Jan 21 2008, 06:03 PM) I am going to go out on a bit of a limb here, but I honestly think Gold will be sub-$500 within 6 months. 10% of the bad news with regard to credit markets is out. IMO, we are looking at around $6 trillion of write-downs worldwide that are connected to the housing market. If banks start to fail a la NR we could be looking at a lot more than that. China is in a lot of trouble and demand from that area will collapse in the next few months sending commodity prices down with them. Unemployment will pick up very quickly this Spring as businesses start to close and cost cotting begins in earnest. It reads deflation. The place to be when deflation is endemic and recession is widespread is US Treasuries and perhaps Swissies and Yen to a lesser extent. Risky bets such as gold will fall as the flight to safety will be predicated upon deflationary pressures. Gold is an inflationary hedge and driven almost solely by sentiment and fear of inflation. That phase of the market is over. Nothing goes on rising for ever. Its all cyclical and gold has had a good run. There comes a point when taking profits is wise. As Warren B says--get out while the herd are still rushing in. Not every drop is a buying opportunity otherwise nothing would ever drop. The black stuff beat the market today. I got out at 4.99 but its still an alluring bet: UK COAL (LSE:UKC.L) Last Trade: 389.75 p Trade Time: 4:35PM Change: 5.75 (1.50%) Prev Close: 384.00 Open: 376.00 Bid: 389.50 Ask: 390.00 1y Target Est: 630.00p

I started buying gold at £650 when it jumped over $700 I though there might be a pull back where I could buy 5k more, it just kept going then it was in the $800 range and I was hoping for a pull back to $700-750 but its kept rising until it jumped up to over $1000 I seriously expected a pull back after this much of a price rise and it finally came back down to the low $900s where I finally managed to buy it, then I when I got some more money I added again when the price fell to $870. The lesson is, I should of bought it when I had the chance at $700 or even $800, by dollar cost averaging as FSN and James Turk always say. In the time I spent waiting for a pull back I learned so much about gold and the world finical situation that I was convinced that I would be much better off having my cash in gold, then I felt comfortable buying in the $900 range. If your unsure about buying it all now you could buy gold with 25-50% of the money you intended to invest, then buy another 25-50% next month and so on. That way if the price falls you get to buy some cheaper next month or if the price rises at least you own some at the current price.

Gold mine found in Ireland http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7486799.stm A gold find is being claimed in a small village in Ireland. A local mining company says that the find in County Monaghan could be the biggest ever untapped gold deposit in Britain or Ireland. They say there could be possibly 1 million ounces but will it be expensive to extract.

I am a big fan of Petrov and I like his presentation style he's very enthusiastic about his subject unlike most of the lecturers I had to stay awake to at Uni. I've downloaded all his lectures 25 one hour lectures on macroeconomics, 15 lectures on investment analysis, 4 business cycle lectures, 5 credit derivatives and a few others on peak oil, gold, inflation. You can download the lectures from google video if you use Mozzilla firefox and Downloadhelper both are free programs.

I understand your point but I don't agree. A large part of the gold price is a function of the price of energy that is needed to mine and refine gold. High oil translates into a high oil price, but the two prices do not move up in perfect alignment, the gold price in normal conditions will lag the oil price and I expect that most of the mining companies are aware of what is happening globally to the price of commodities and the weakness of the dollar so they have probably purchased their energy in the futures market. If the price of energy stays high and gold remains low then the mining companies will not be able to produce gold at a profit. This is part of the reasons that the junior mining shares are not performing, eventually as the high costs of oil work their way through to the miners then the supply of gold to the market will fall. True that a gold remains a durable product and most of the gold ever mined is still around, it is what happens to the price of this existing gold when there is a falling supply from the miners.

British Numismatic Trade Association The British Numismatic Trade Association (BNTA) was founded in 1973 after a number of meetings among senior members of the coin trade following the introduction of V.A.T. (Value Added Tax). The special arrangements pressed for by members of the antiques trade generally were successfully introduced. Dealers then needed more effective methods of stock control - a discipline which in turn made the availability of coins more easily publicised. The BNTA has been an effective voice in the fight against forgery, another topic of major concern particularly in the early 1970's, and in establishing standards in the domestic coin trade. Members receive early warning notices of counterfeit coins and stolen property. http://www.taxfreegold.co.uk/bntamember.html I usually buy in person from a BNTA member shop, but it is a little bit more expensive. I have not heard of any problems with coininvest so I would feel quite safe buying from them now I have more experience with bullion coins.

There is no need to apologise anyone should feel free to ask any question they like in the gold thread or even any area of the forum, everyone has to start somewhere and no question is to naive or basic because if you have to ask it then there is a strong chance that there is lots of other people out there who would like to know the answer. As someone who had never invested before, I gained a lot of my knowledge and the confidence to invest in gold through this reincarnated gold thread aswell as learning from Jim Puplava FSN, Peter Schiff Euro Pac, Michael Hampton CWR Jim Sinclar, Von Mises institute etc I hear a lot of good things about goldmoney and it is something I intend to use soon. At the moment though I prefer adding to my physical gold holdings, but I will start using goldmoney for the trading convenience soon. The issue of seizure is a tricky one that cannot fully be discounted. If currency depreciation is small, gold's rise will be small and so not much chance of seizure. If currency deprecation is huge then the gold price rise will be huge and the bigger the risk of seizure. However if you have £10,000 and choose to invest £5,000 into gold and the currency depreciates to almost nothing and seizure becomes a real possibility, would you have rather kept all your assets in fiat? I would rather be holding gold that has appreciated in value against the fallen currency. Your purchasing power in Fiat is being seized daily by inflation, you have to weigh up the risks. Holding physical gives me a better chance of keeping hold of my gold, sure they can take, they can take it from my cold dead hands. Should seizure begin to look like a real possibility then I expect my house will be burgled and my gold stolen, who knows years later when I take up a hobby metal detecting I may even find that the burglar dropped it all at the bottom of my garden when he was escaping. If you don't fully understand the reasons why to invest in gold and you feel panicked into buying you may find yourself just as easily panicked out of gold. The weak hands in the market will be shaken out, so be sure you fully understand the reasons why you are investing in gold and make sure you understand the gold market and the sudden moves it can make both up and down with long periods of consolidation. This is going to take a little bit of research but there is plenty of information around on the web and links will appear in this thread from time to time that will add to your knowledge. Knowing when to exit the market is also going to require some research, others here have their own exit strategies, for me it mainly comes down to price ratios gold/dow or gold/oil gold/housing. When gold starts to look over valued in comparison with another asset that looks undervalued then I will start to diversify out of gold. The most common ratio referred to is the gold to Dow Jones ratio. In 2000 the it took 44 ounces of gold to by the Dow Jones, last year the ratio came down to 20 ounces to 1, this year the ratio peaked at 12 to 1 and I expect it will end the year it will be 10 to 1 or lower. In 1980 when gold hit its all time high it was 1 to 1 with the Dow Jones, but that $850 high was a one day bubble so it would have been much more realistic to sell when the ration got to 2 to 1. The trick is to diversify out of gold slowly, say you have 50 ounces of gold, perhaps when the Dow ratio is 5 to 1 you could sell 10 ounces and buy some shares, keeping the other 40 ounces in gold as the ratio drops further to say 4 to 1 sell another 10 and buy shares and so on until the price is 2 to 1 you will still have some invested in gold as insurance against hyperinflation or for the real big bargain price and should gold go 1 to 1 with the Dow then sell the remaining gold as this will probably be the high, but at least even it if did not get all the way to 1 to 1 then you will have profited from you gold. DrBubb spoke about a good strategy for trading and it was a very disciplined way of investing, he was talking about investing in mining shares with Frizzers on Commodity Watch Radio and I hope I am not misrepresenting his advice here but I remember it as: Do your research, buy low, wait for the asset to double in value, then sell half and get back your initial capital. Jim Sinclare has a good strategy for exiting the gold market and Goldfinger also has an excellent short list for when to sell gold. Edit: sorry if thats a bit rushed, I will try to add some useful links later.

I'm not sure what that 'J21' means, I've never seen or heard of it before, I don't think that it should be there and I cannot find any information about it in the Spinks catalogue. It looks like its been stamped on using individual letter and number stamps because they are not stamped in an even line. The poster says that its passed the fisch test, so it could be real but the fact its been stamped with J21 will have meant that its lost its bullion status and will only be traded at its scrap value 75% of spot price. It may have been recovered from jewelery where the reverse side (st George) would have been hidden. Edit: Actually looking at the picture it looks like a fake to me, the sword is completely different from this 1928 coin, the picture is about the same size so it easy to spot the difference. http://www.goldsovereigns.co.uk/pretoriamintsouthafrica.html

I can't reply to the Thread over there as I am not registered, but could you post and tell them that the London minted sovereigns have no mint mark, only the sovereigns minted overseas have mint marks. http://www.goldsovereigns.co.uk/mintsandmintmarks.html London None 1817 - Date Sydney S 1871 -1926 Melbourne M 1872 - 1931 Perth P 1899 - 1931 Ottawa C 1908 -1919 Bombay I 1918 -1918 Pretoria SA 1923 -1932

Could three mini coopers really carry that many gold bars between them?

Faster banking transfers underway 23:20 GMT, Monday, 26 May 2008 00:20 UK http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7417303.stm A banking scheme for one-day cash transfers over the telephone or on the internet has started. The scheme will speed up the process which previously saw money transferred between banks disappearing into a black hole for up to four days. Banks made an estimated £30m a year in interest from the delay last year. The £300m Faster Payments Service, developed by 13 banks, starts on 27 May although only a fraction of payments will be quicker from day one. Does this amount to an increase in the velocity of money?

Wage inflation will not take off all by itself, as the effects of inflation take hold and people suffer then it will precipitate industrial action, wages will only rise after workers and unions organize and hold strikes. The sector with the most power is Transport/lorry drivers they have ability to shut the country down and they also have the support of the car driving public. We have created a society that is even more dependent on an oil based infrastructure since the original fuel protests. I speak anecdotally to people who are beginning to suffer from the prolonged higher cost of fuel its only a matter of time before the public start to show unrest. There are quite a few other areas where we can see industrial action starting over pay, in the main its public sector workers but eventually it will spread. The UK economy has only just started to turn downwards I don't think that the public are about to accept a lower standard of living without a fight. The 70s period of economic turmoil, high oil prices, high inflation and stagflation were rife with industrial action. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7411437.stm Police's warning shot in pay row http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/lancashire/7404120.stm Second strike over wages review http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7365331.stm School's out as teachers march http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7341980.stm Coastguard staff strike over pay http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7175503.stm Ministers seek prison strike ban http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7129299.stm Civil servants on 48-hour strike http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6987810.stm Unions back 'co-ordinated' action