bobbyald141

 

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Thanks for popping up here to express the case for blind and uninformed Skepticism.

No doubt, you will be in that minority that needs a government capital D Disclosure before considering this reality.

So habe said, even after a government announcement 20-25% will still not believe it.

If that's true, that may be the group you will be in... The Flat Earth segment of the Future.

I will almost certainly be in the 20-25%.

That is because the ONLY thing that will convince me is EVIDENCE.

It don't matter if you are honest or work hard to present your case.

It don't matter if the government or anyone else makes a statement if it is lacking solid evidence.

It don't matter if politicians, generals, scientists or that really nive bloke down the pub believes something - I won't believe it until I see hard evidence.

I don't care how open your mind is or how much you really, really believe it - I want evidence.

Evidence is NOT opinion.

Evidence is NOT stories from nice people.

Evidence is NOT filling in the gaps with whatever you want.

Evidence is NOT guesswork.

So what is the evidence?

Have you got just one piece of solid evidence?

I've read much and watched many videos and as yet I see no evidence - NONE!

EVIDENCE EVIDENCE EVIDENCE

This is all very, very sad. I can't believe you and other are still banging on about aliens.

There is just one barrier to disclosure - there are NO aliens on earth.

We know this because there has been NO evidence produced.

I know you THINK you have evidence but that's just because you and all those other deluded crackpots do not understand what evidence is.

This theme of not understanding what consistutes evidence is common on GEI and explains it's lack of success and it's failure to grasp some very basic concepts.

I've watched many of these UFO video clips and it's just the same nonsense everytime.

Dolan, Willock etc should be in jail or at the very least an institution for the mentally unstable.

I suggest you look at the data on the other thread, which clearly supports the existing theory of a 37 year Earthquake cycle. The only fine-tuning that I am suggesting is that we could see a mid-cycle peak in 2015-16 or so - these mid-cycle periods have often brought some major quakes, tsunamis, and volcanoes.

IF there was a cycle to earthquakes what would it prove? Certainly not that some amazing "Earth Changes" are upon us. Surely it would just be a normal cycle?

It's great to see that this debate is still going strong however I feel that JD has an unfair advantage - an understanding of statistical analysis.

I've just finished listening to the audio book version of this book and found it very interesting so I'm recommending it:

The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives

It explores how random events shape the world and how human intuition tries to fight it. Our brains naturally want to see patterns and order where none exist and consequently we draw many incorrect conclusions. This would be of particular benefit to DR Bubb but I think you may also find it interesting JD.

I started reading this thread not realising that it began in 2008 and it highlights just how useless most financial commentators are.

The first post has two charts. The first is of GLD when gold was around $800 and is accompanied by the following comment: Today's announcement is on GOLD. Following last week's massive, $130 collapse, Gold has given us EXACTLY the move required to confirm the bull market is OVER!

The other chart shows a “likely” projection of the SPY and a new low in the summer of 2009.

With hopeless forecasting like this why should anyone listen to NEOwave?

We see many forecasts on GEI and elsewhere but never go back to all those busy charts with meaningless coloured lines all over them but if we did I know exactly what they would show – the whole charade is meaningless.

Typical classic CLOSE MINDED comment:

"I admit I haven't looked at the videos / links because,... I know they are nonsense"

 

I think you should be embarrassed posting such a comment on GEI.

I have looked at the videos / links and can confirm that they are total nonsense.

Gold getting smashed again.

Currently down 80.

So statistically speaking there is no variation there.

Agreed. Statistically speaking there is absolutely nothing significantly different about earthquake activity this year.

Any attempt to make a case for Earth Changes from this data therefore fails completely.

Statistically speaking deaths would also be irrelevant to this arguement.

Yes, without a doubt it's an extension of the great confidence trick and could at some point all come tumbling down. I guess the converse argument is that in whose benefit is it if it does come to an end?

 

Not the creditors, nor the debtors. I guess that that leaves only the little guy. But heh, when have they ever cared about the little guy?

 

Of course hyper inflation is just as damaging as deflation (which can also ends in civil unrest and wars), but they actually believe they can control hyperinflation, whereas they know they can't control deflation. That's what worries me.

 

As for the footie, I stopped watching when the tickets at Highfield Road went above £6!

Well, I think we agree that whatever TPTB do it will be in their own perceived best interest and sod everyone else - has it ever been any different? The current system is unsustainable so we now only need to wait & see what they do.

Good luck to you JD I hope whichever way you play it you come out the other end relatively unscathed.

This has been an enjoyable chat.

I have always believed that a credit crunch, by definition, is deflationary.

 

I still think it is, but with all the printing and inflating away of debt, they are just about holding it back for now. The deleveraging is ongoing and the printing etc I expect will continue for a good while yet. Of course, it is a fine balancing act and could derail at any time. However, I'm convinced that they are so scared of deflation, that they will risk a high level of inflation to avoid it.

 

It was when they first started printing that I realised just how far they would go and soon after got a nice run down house for a song.

 

As such, I am hedged as best I can, with safe high div shares during printing rounds, cash during in-between times and an average size mortgage that I will soon fix for 10 years, with enough savings etc to cover the majority of it if times turn bad.

They are printing and will continue to do so for as long as they can but at some point it ends. There are untold trillions of debt in the world and the holders of this debt are currently happy to accept a small loss from inflation verses what could potentially be a huge loss in a deflationary collapse. As you say it's finely balanced and the printing presses continue to rumble but at some point further printing leads to higher rates and then it's decision time - either they stop printing and deflate or print faster and face rapidly accelerating inflation. Both will be very destructive and ultimately destroy a huge percentage of the imaginary claims to wealth that exist within many asset classes and likely destroy a significant percentage of good productive capacity.

Personally I can't see them printing. Hyperinflation would play out over a much shorter time span resulting in a loss of control by the PTB. Who knows where this leads, civil unrest, war? During a deflation the public are more controllable, politians can limp along, banks can be bailed, printing hidden, excuses made, scape goats found etc. It'll still be tough but the risks to the rich and powerful are reduced and ultimately that's what will decide it.

Late here so I'm off to bed.

Follow the footie? My team Charlton just blew a 2-0 lead.

Are we still on the weird thread?

I saw a flash then everything turned back to serious finance.

Where have all the lizards gone?

Fair points.

 

Without the time to actively follow every twist and turn, I generally moved to buy and hold (buying the dips) of high div shares (during the last decade or so), only offloading when everything is looking c**p and the markets still rise.

I generally stay out of the market although I have a few positions, gold etc., that I've held for a while now.

If I could see anything short or Medium term that makes any sense I'd probably have a go but is all I see is randomness. The problem of course is even if you have a system that appears to work you can never be sure that it does - it may all just be luck. Some people say that every stock they hold has been a winner and that's highly unlikely to be random but in a bull market it can be.

Good luck to you though if your making money.

Jumped out totally summer 2007 (and STR'ed) and stayed out until march 2009, except for a bit of spread betting for fun. Although, I have to say that in addition to the whole scheme looking like it was about to collapse, and the run on NR, DD's thread on "the great dow high of summer 2007" did have a fair bit to do with that decision. Although I know it doesn't work all the time, I still think that there were some great predictive calls that he made using EW theory at that time. Really nailed several major turns.

I'm generally very bearish about housing markets and stockmarkets. I see massive deflation ahead and I'm happy to sit in mainly cash for the present. I also STR'd in 2007 and emmigrated to Australia, the over valued housing and stockmarket was a big part of my decision but I also wanted my kids to have options. It's worked out well so far - more luck than judgement I admit. I was told by almost everyone that if I sold up and left London I'd be priced out of the market forever but could now easily buy my old house back twice over. The Australian housing market is in a huge bubble so I still rent. Currently getting 6%+ on my cash but the A$ can be very volitile and has traded in a wide range since I came over. Another credit crunch and the A$ will surely be hit hard again.

Waiting now for FED/BoE/BoJ/ECD coordinated QE3. At that point, I'll go from my current position of practically all cash, to practically all in

Hope it works out for you. If the QE's manage to hold back deflation I'd be happy but I just can't see it working forever. Eventually defaults will overwhelm QE and down we go. My "do little" approach has been good but I'm increasingly getting the feeling that I will have to make a decision soon but not sure yet which way to jump. As much as I hate to say it, gold and high quality US Gov bonds are favourite.

True enough, however, there are several examples when I have drawn a straight line on a graph, along previous highs or lows, that the market has indeed turned when hit. I have often used these to pick in and out points on the spreadbetting, and have done far better using this approach. Now I only lose half as much money

 

I always thought that, if I were one of TBTB, (be they the fed, PPT, Morgan Stanley, or other market manipulators) the best time to get maximum effect for minimum dollar, would be to intervene at the most predicted resistance/support lines.

There is certainly lots going on in the markets, thousands of players with their own beliefs and systems and it becomes very difficult to separate a real effect/trend/turning point from random market noise. For every play someone has a counter-play. TPTB may sometimes do as you say but then another time they may push through resistance/support to force the hand of shorts/longs and profit that way - who knows? The bottom line is I believe that in the short to medium term the markets are far too close to random for the average player to make it worhtwhile.

Many people say that when they are first acquainted with technical analysis, but I dont think it is the reason it works.

TA of course doesn't work.

Even if there was once something in it, it would very quickly become so saturated with players that margins would tend to zero.

JD, I agree with the "self fulfilling" effect under many circumstances, moon watching etc., but in the case of TA I believe that a saturation of players forces many to act on the strategy earlier and earlier and in the process destroy the effect they were hoping to profit from.

I take that reply to mean that you believe that there is an alternative to the scientific method and that that alternative is a combination of intuition, experience, religion etc.

Well here's the really great thing, it's very easy to watch your process in action.

There is no need for any tyrannical scientist to be present, you can do it yourself with a few friends and I guarantee you that if it's enlightenment your after you will just love the results.

Here's what you need to do:

Grab a pack of shuffled cards and get your friends to call on their intuition, gods, psychic powers etc. and name to top face down card.

Go through the whole pack and record the results.

The more times you do this the better and if you can get some really good psychics it'll work much better.

There is no trick.

You don't have to use playing cards - you could toss a coin for example.

You are personally in control through the whole process and any location/time is fine.

The results will be truely astonishing for you so please give it a go.

DR Bubb,

Can I ask whether you believe there is any method, other than the scientific method, for assessing the world around us?

If so, what is that method?

This is a good example of the way in which some valid scientific facts are intermingled with factual errors in order to present a hypothesis that sounds reasonable to the uneducated.

B L O O D - O F T H E G O D S

 

Are you an Rh Negative blood type?

If so you could be a decendent of the ancient astronauts themselves!

Wow, that's some hypothosis - let's follow the logic..

 

For the past decade many people have been working to prove that the earth has been visited by extraterrestrial beings. Who are these visitors? Why did they come? Why did they leave? Did they leave?

OK, so we are looking for evidence to support this hypothesis.

 

If earth was visited in the ancient past, are there any descendants of these visitors? . . .

In the study of genetics, we find that we can only inherit what our ancestors had except in the case of mutation. We can have any of numerous combinations of traits inherited from all our ancestors. Nothing more and nothing less. Therefore, if man and ape evolved from a common ancestor, their blood would have evolved the same way.

Oops. This last sentence is totally wrong. There is no reason to expect this at all. In fact we would expect the opposite but let's carry on...

 

Blood factors are transmitted with much more exactitude than any other characteristic. It would seem that modern man and rhesus monkey may have had a common ancestor sometime in the ancient past. All other earthly primates also have this Rh factor. But this leaves out the people who are Rh negative (15% of global population).

This builds on the error above. There isn't a problem here.

 

 

If all mankind evolved from the same ancestor their blood would be compatible.

No - Wrong again.

 

Where did the Rh negatives come from?

Now the above errors are used to setup the big question.

 

If they are not the descendants of prehistoric man, could they be the descendants of the ancient astronauts?

And finally a huge illogical leap. Even if the above was correct there is absolutely no reason to suggest any connection with ancient astronauts.

 

/More: http://www.greatdreams.com/reptlan/rhneg.htm

 

So no suggestion of evidence to support the above hypothesis plus numerous factual errors in the introduction - this doesn't inspire confidence in the video which I declined to watch.

 

Obviously not ! (or he would have responded by now)

Yet another example of complacent close-minded thinking.

If some sort of enlightenment is coming, the close-minded will be the last to experience it.

Actually DrBubb you're wrong - I did watch most of it but to be honest I don't know why I bothered - It was total nonsense.

The reason I didn't reply was because this is your forum and your topic and if you want to push this rubbish it's your choice. Out of respect I've made the decision to make just one short comment on each such thread to express my view and no more (although I feel compelled to reply to your comment in this case). If you would like me to rip this topic to pieces with real evidence from real scientist I'd be happy to do so but I expect I'd only get another short ban. It would appear to me that many other people on this forum have decided to just ignore these type of topics completely and maybe I should do the same but I'm strangely drawn to such topics, not because I have any interest in them per se, but because I find it incomprehensible that any intelligent, logical, sane person could take them seriously and that’s interesting.

I never cease to be amazed by the extent of human gullibility.

So Mr Bubb, what was your PropertyTribe forecast? -9% for 2011?

I might wander over and see what they're making of it.

I expect they don't care as they all buy property 40% BMV - ha ha.

Some on HPC are also saying that Apr-10 = 168,593 and Apr-11 = 160,395 = -4.86% YoY.

It's a reasonable start I supose

Bold as Brass is correct in that after this year, things will not be as bad as spending returns to "normal" levels (after inflation taken into account that is).

In the years building up to the financial crisis people spent more than they earned i.e. net borrowing increased every year. For us to get back to "normal" levels of spending people will therefore need to revert to spending more than they earn and banks will need to revert to previous levels of lending. (I can't see this happening, in fact I think both borrowing and spending will continue to fall in the years ahead).

However, if you are correct and we do start running up ever more debt when do you think it will end? or do you just see credit expansion to infinity?

So, the question of debt default turns from theoretical to quite imperative. If the Federal Reserve continues buying our debt with fiat, it means that the effects of the debt will only be delayed, the dollar will be dropped as the world reserve currency, and hyperinflation is a certainty.

The buying of debt with fiat does not increase the money supply, it just replaces credit with fiat plus the amounts are relatively small compared to the amount of debt out there. Sure this is all delaying tactics but there is now nothing that can be done to save the system. Even at current rates of swapping debt for fiat the dollar will remain the reserve currency for a long time but as the bond market will soon signal “no more printing” the dollar in my opinion will strength considerably from here as assets fall. There is no way hyperinflation is even remotely possible.

If they do not continue buying, then our government defaults, the country’s financial infrastructure ceases to exist, the dollar loses its world reserve status, and hyperinflation is a certainty. The banking elites haven’t just erected a prison, they’ve tossed us in Alcatraz!

This is wrong in so many ways that it’s hard to know where to start.

If they stopped swapping debt for fiat then some debt would default – this is inevitable anyway. It will certainly not destroy the financial infrastructure and would make cash and the debt that survives worth much more. If the government gets it right, implements financial restraint and allows some strategic defaults then the dollars continued roll as the world reserve currency is assured.

I just cannot understand all this nonsense about hyperinflation. Your debt is an asset of the rich & powerful- why do you think they will destroy this relationship?

Back to the HPC (the sublect of this thread) I think it's clear that whichever of the abve is correct, the debt bubble has peaked and this spells big trouble for the property market. They may be able to delay a little more but the big slide is coming.

Is anyone else struggling to hold the line?

 

I STRd in 2009 and felt glad to have got a price about 8% off 2007 peak in London's Docklands. Since then have moved rentals a couple of times - all part of a slow orbit outwards from the centre to more suburbia. 2 kids, including one small baby. Last rental has been a nightmare - total amateur landlord totally unaware of his responsibilities. Every issue comes close to litigation to get anything done.

 

Since STRing property in the area I am interested in (N2) has gone up by more than 10%, my rent is vast at nearly £4k per month, I shifted most of my pension into cash/near-cash only to see the equities market go up by 15%, and am seeing the 50% of my STR fund that I didn't put into gold rapidly erroding. I am genuinely the laughing stock of my friends and family and it's getting hard to hold the line.

 

Classic "when the last bear turns bull" stuff? MSE style hugs needed.

I'm in cash and not at all concerned with the bounce in the markets as it's all very risky particularly property and commodities.

Once deflation gets a grip on the economy, the government will have run out of options and cash will be the best investment. At that point, people will be screaming to get off the property ladder as they won't be able to afford their repayments, but won't be able to sell as the property market will be in free fall. It will be a blood bath. 40-70% drop in 3 years. You will then be sitting pretty with bucket loads of cash and you willl be able to pick up a property at bargain basement values with probably minimum mortgage.

The FED and BOE will NOT print to infinity and hyper-inflation is impossible for countries with a sophisticated bond market but even if they did bricks and mortar will NOT protect your wealth as history has shown. At some point rates will have to rise as the bond market signals no more printing then they will fall again.

Hold on in there, but for heavens sake, do NOT invest too much in gold and remember to short commodites - cash is king. You have been bold enough to sell a real asset, albeit an over valued one, but to make this work you have keep your cash. Silver or gold may be ok but commodities won't be, you will just get slaughtered by deflation.

I think in time, you'll be sitting pretty, but I dare say you will have a few years of snide remarks from friends who are seeing the value of their houses edge up. Once IR's go north, the shoe will firmly be on the other foot.

Good luck.

Property Tribes...It will be bloody.

It will. I wonder just how far they will let their losses run until they bail? It'll be interesting to follow but they have been warned.

Based on the beliefs that they hold e.g. It only takes commitment and everything will work out fine in the long run, I expect that they will be the last out and possibly signal the time to buy.

Which is my point - there is simply too much money lent into the housing market now...for a collapse to be thinkable. Base rates are going to be low for years.

A strange conclusion to reach - I would have said that there is simply too much money lent into overvalued housing for a collapse not to occur.

I agree that base rates will be low for years but why will that make any difference? - just look at Japan and the US. Rates fall along with everything else in a deflation, including rents. (I do however think we will get a blip in rates as the bond market signals no more QE).