bobbyald141

I havent read all the arguments on this thread, but i am in the Bubb camp on this one. I think this is "it"..the final capitulation where the masses finally realise that the property boom is well and truely over!

 

I expect to see high single/low double digit falls over the next 2 years years before a gradual levelling out and bottoming around year 2000 levels (maybe lower if we see large interest rate rises) I would really like to trade up but will have to see how things look in the property market when we get close to the bottom.

I agree except that I also expect a "BTL tsunami" period at some point where the BTL crowd all try to get out at the same time. This may be brief but would see a dramatic plunge in prices.

However, Martin Ellis, Halifax's housing economist, said falling prices may deter sellers from putting their homes on the market, helping to "reverse the imbalance between buyers and sellers".

I addressed this quote on HPC as follows:

Implying what?

You are expected to imply: Less sellers = less supply = upward pressure on prices i.e. when buyers=sellers we have equilibrium and prices will stop going down.

 

Actual answer for anyone who has got past Economics 101 (probably doesn't include Mr Ellis):

Price is set by supply and demand. Sellers (or buyers) that stay out of the market do NOT contribute to supply (or demand) and therefore have no effect on price. For those buyers and sellers actually in the market setting the price: the price is not in equilibrium when buyers = sellers as buyers ALWAYS equals sellers (how could they not?).

It's a long way down from here.

I'll believe it when I really see it.

 

This is nothing more than a couple of ticks down, which has happened many times before. 2005 and, to a greater extent, 2008. The UK housing market has a habit of surprising people and , in my lifetime, the surprises have always been to the upside.

 

My observations of my locale is that there is a bit more property for sale than usual. But stuff is still selling - particularly family homes, which, in the event of a crash, are likely to hold up better for and for longer. Rents are still extravagant. There are no repossessions or anything approaching the wash-out of 89-94. I know they come further down the road.

 

But for now this is just a tick down.

 

So no premature congratulation

Playing it cool then Dom? Good idea, best not get carried away just yet.

As my wife says, it's never a good idea to be premature.

House price inflation eases again, says Nationwide

We still have house price inflation then? It's just eased a little.

I'm predicting a boom of negative 50%.

At Pricewaterhouse, Hawksworth remains gloomy for even longer. He thinks there is a 70 per cent probability that prices will not return to their peak levels in real terms even by 2015, and an evens chance of prices still not reaching 2007 heights, adjusted for inflation, by the end of the decade.

I've seen this quoted in various places as a gloomy comment.

Am I the only one who thinks that this is a remarkably optimistic comment?

If prices get anywhere near 2007 levels in 2015 I'll be stunned as nothing will have changed and the bubble will still be going strong.

I can see 2015 being close to the bottom at maybe 50% below 2007 levels.

Interesting...

 

The house we sold in Summer 2007 at £430k, has just gone back on the market for exactly the price we marketed it for back then at £450k.

 

The buyer has incurred legal fees, stamp duty and made some improvements on the house, so he will probably be out of pocket unless he gets the asking price at £450k.

 

It is a little frustrating because in the last 3 years I could have stayed in that house, and not rented; my rent is more than my mortgage was. If he gets in excess of £420k then I have made a big mistake selling in summer 2007.

 

The reality is that the funds from my sale haven't made that much either for me to be able to stand up to my wife and say it has been worth living out of boxes for a few years!!

I know what you mean - it has been similar for me too.

There is no guarantee that they can get out in time however and the potential for a huge loss is still there. I'd be very happy in cash at the moment.

Lucky I converted to A$ so I'm currently ahead on the exchange but if you want to see a real housing bubble come to Oz.

It's not music but to be amazed by the relative sizes of the planets and stars watch this:

His track record seems to be far better than Random.

If you get direction of the significant moves right 60% of the time, and employ good risk control,

you can make a lot of money.

 

I do not expect perfection. Excellence is plenty good.

My point is if you have lots of people making random guesses it's possible to select those have great records of say 60%, 70%, 80% accuracy or even perfection but there next prediction is still just a random guess like yours or mine.

DrBubb said:

Nenner Predicts - And gets it right !

He doesnt always get it right.

Have you ever wondered why we get a steady stream of "experts" (who most people have never heard of before) who then, when in the spotlight, turn out to have the same predictive powers as my cat?

Could it be that there are thousands of these people out there guessing and some at sometime get a couple of lucky calls right? I wonder.

They need to refocus the economy in a way that is starts CREATING WEALTH again -

Agreed but this is easier said than done.

Exactly what jobs are people going to do to create wealth?

Can the UK compete with Asia on labour costs?

Have the UK got resources they can exploit?

What do 20m working people actually do?

As it stands a sizable number of workforce just provide meaningless services for each other.