lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)
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Posts posted by lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)
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I'm on it.
Just planted peas, strawberries, potatoes, onions, garlic, beetroot, carrots. Pruned the peach trees and vines and planting corn next week. Worried about lack of rain though.
Mother in law butchered a pig in the kitchen last Sunday. 150 euro for half a side and the meat will last all 6 months. Sister is trying to breed rare pigs in Lancashire. Council are all over it though. Shuffling paper and stopping things happening.
peaches - are they ok re frost
whereabouts in the uk are you
im in doncaster - mum used to have a peach tree but no peaches made it
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From the gold thread,
I have actually purchased 6 chickens at the cost of £11 each around mid 2008, and after a few weeks of getting them settled down and feeding them approximately 1 bag of pellets a month (cost of £6.50) I am currently getting at least 36 eggs per week.
hen house arrived
rescuing three battery hens this weekend
will post how we get on
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There is an important factor here which I only recently appreciated.
Those calculations are for the gold price today, not tomorrow, not next week, not next year, and most definitely not in 5 years time.
The actual final price depends very much on what happens between now and the peak. If they increase the contributing numbers, the final price will be much higher some time in the future.
And that's not ramping, that's plain cold hard facts based on previous "gold accounting" periods. ie based on history
yep i know its a moving target
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Gold not far off entering it's summer doldrums and dollar index looking oversold on daily and weekly charts:
P&F chart also has a bullish price objective of 112:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?...,P&listNum=
I don't know if gold will go much higher if the dollar starts strengthening.
yep it may strengthen short term
but looks undervalued to me
http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=9397
Gold isn’t going to $2,000 an ounce.Before you gag on your coffee or suffer chest pains, allow me to explain.
We’re about eight years into the bull market, and gold has breached the $1,000 level twice and has spent weeks trading above the old high of $850. Some observers are now saying that gold’s pretty much had its day and that once the recession is over, it will retreat for good.
However, the four-digit gold price we’ve seen so far is with no price inflation to speak of, no effects of the atrocious increase in the money supply, and despite a rising dollar. What happens to gold when each of those pictures gets turned upside down – high inflation, excess cash jolting the economy, and a falling dollar? After all, gold’s performance to date has been powered only by general anxiety, not by any visible erosion in the dollar’s value.
I decided to take a fresh look at calculations that could be used to appraise gold’s upside potential. No one of them, by itself, comes with compelling logic. But they all point in the same direction.
Gold’s Percentage Rise in the Last Bull Market. What if gold in this bull market repeats the percentage rise in the last bull market? In the 1970s gold rose from $35 to $850, a factor of 24.28. Our low in 2001 was $255.95. Multiply that by 24.28 and you get a gold price of $6,214 per ounce.
U.S. Gold Holdings to Money Supply: The M1 money supply consists of currency and checkable deposits. The U.S. government currently holds 286.9 million ounces of gold. If the government were to make each dollar redeemable by the amount of gold it possesses, we’d arrive at the following price for gold: $1.569 trillion ÷ 286.9 million oz. = $5,468.80 per ounce
Gold/Dow Ratio: The ratio was about “1” when gold peaked in 1980, meaning the Dow and gold were the same price. To restore that relationship at today’s stock prices would mean when the Dow is at 6,626, gold should be at $6,626/oz. Of course, we think it likely that the Dow will get a lot lower before gold peaks. But even if it drops all the way to 4,000, that would imply a gold price of $4,000/oz.
All the Money in the World vs. Gold Reserves: If the public eventually sees the paper game being run by the central banks for what it is, governments will be forced to back their currencies with gold (and perhaps other tangibles like silver). Assuming they had to go into the market and buy the gold needed to restore faith in their currencies, the numbers might look like this: Total central banks reserves (including gold holdings) = $4.8 trillion, divided by 929.6 million ounces total gold reserves held by all official institutions that issue currency = $5,246 gold price.
U.S. Gold Holdings to U.S. Foreign Trade Deficit: The size of a country's deficit or surplus would be of no consequence if all currencies were convertible into a fixed amount of gold. However, the dollar is increasingly considered a hot potato, and when the trade balance reverses, as it must, dollars will flow back to the U.S. and fuel domestic price inflation. Based on the cumulative trade deficit of $9.13 trillion (up from $6 trillion since June ‘07!) and U.S. gold holdings of 286.9 million ounces, the corresponding price of gold would be $31,822 per ounce.
U.S. Gold to U.S. Government Liabilities: Finally, the GAO (Government Accountability Office) calculates an income statement and balance sheet for the U.S. government. As you’d suspect, it is dominated by future liabilities for Medicare and Social Security. What if they had to be backed by the supply of gold? Official U.S. government liabilities now ring in at an incredible $55.2 trillion. To make good on that would require a $192,401 gold price.
No, we don’t think gold will hit $192,000 or even $32,000. And there really isn’t any surefire way to forecast the eventual high. But it’s clear that every weathervane is pointing in the same direction. So, yes, gold isn’t going to $2,000; it’s going higher
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just for the austrian thinkers
Jim Sinclair’s CommentaryIn case you missed this the first time it was posted, please do not miss it this time. What allowed me to call $900 in the early 1970s was pure math.
Here is another exercise of similar character.
Mises’ Equation = Gold Price $6,000 - $31,000?
"Thorsten Polleit, Honorary Professor at Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, did some calculations for this and found (as of March ’09):
- backing all of M1 with gold. M1 divided by gold oz. results in $6000 per oz.
- backing M2 with gold and you get $31,000 per oz.
- backing Euro M3 and gold is E26,000"
Does Mises’ Equation Give a Basis for Gold Price?
May 03, 2009
Assuming you agree to a strict Austrian approach to life and love, Mises advocated sound monetary policy by returning to a gold standard and developed this equation for a “regression” to a properly backed currency called the gold cover ratio:
GCR = (C+D+T+S+L) / G
Where C is cash, D is demand deposits, T time deposits, S savings, and L banks long term liabilities. And our favorite variable G is oz of gold at Fort Knox.
Thorsten Polleit, Honorary Professor at Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, did some calculations for this and found (as of March ’09):
backing all of M1 with gold. M1 divided by gold oz. results in $6000 per oz.
backing M2 with gold and you get $31,000 per oz.
backing Euro M3 and gold is E26,000
But the real impact of Mises’ work is not in what the price of gold should or could be but rather the conclusion that no matter what the government does (e.g. quantitative easing, free running printing presses, artificially low interest rates, stimulus packages, bank bailouts, TARP, TALF, etc, etc) we still get a serious erosion if not all out loss of the exchange value of fiat money
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http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/emma_hartley/..._says_nonexpert
from a telegraph blog
http://www.oecd.org/document/61/0,3343,en_...1_1_1_1,00.htmlForget unemployment, forget insolvency - the answer to the question is here:
www.oecd.org/document/61/0,3343,en_2649_...
Find 'Annex table 54' near the bottom of the page and then click on the line below ('Other background data'). Save or open the spreadsheet and then find the tabs at the bottom related to 'house prices' and 'house price ratios'.
Here's what you need to know: on house price ratios, as at 2007, UK 'price-to-rent' ratio was 170 and 'price-to-income' ratio was 149.7
To get back to 100 on the latter, there needs to be a fall in prices of 33.3% approx. and price-to-rent to get back to 100 needs a fall of 40%.
Look at previous data - e.g. 1991-1996, and you'll see it can be expected to fall below 100 - well below and it took a long time to recover. Add in the fact that wages are going DOWN according to most reports, so price-to-incomes ratio is going down more than a third.
What do you reckon? 50% total fall top to bottom? Or more?
If you look at the previous tab on the spreadsheet - 'house prices' - you can see the whopping percentage increases since 2002, worse in the UK than USA! Compare that with stable Germany and the deflationary Japan.
The 'green shoots' stories relating to the stock market should also be treated with great care. I can understand there are those wanting to talk the markets up, but I suspect many of them are just wanting to dump property and shares before the next collapse in prices.
This guy's my hero - take a look:
wbrussee.wordpress.com/
edit to add
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i still think 50oz
http://www.safehaven.com/article-13227.htm
The value of Gold priced in Sterling, however, remains below its eight-decade average in terms of housing. One ounce of metal now buys one-third of one per cent of the typical British pile, compared to the 1930-2009 average of 0.4%.Given UK housing's habit of over-shooting both at the top and the bottom, however, returning to that extreme valuation beneath 100 ounces between 1980 and 1983 would see real-estate sellers now switching to gold today treble their investment once more before housing turns higher in terms of ounces of metal.
You might charge that Britain's housing stock has gained in real utility since Margaret Thatcher took power. But running water, gas and electric were supplied long before, and central heating became commonplace during the '70s. Still "the barbarous relic" squashing house prices back towards Great Depression levels, approaching - but not quite reaching - the 76-ounce level hit from 1934-1938.
In nominal prices, average UK home prices have risen 350 times over...going from £545 just before the Second World War to some £190,000 this month. Gold Prices, in contrast, have risen some 140-fold to stand near £610 an ounce at today's London close.
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id missed that one thanks
another one to circulate
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Considering how many gold bugs there are on this site I am surprised no one has replied to this.
It is by far the largest trade this year in this ETF. The average largest trade is about 0.5m so this is ABNORMAL.
Why?
dunno
Pakistan?
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about to enter parabolic growth?
http://www.kitco.com/ind/nichols/apr212009.html
Originally my plan was to go back and take a much more detailed look at the most famous "bubbles" in financial history to look for similarities to the current pattern in gold. In my experience most market fractal patterns are similar -- particularly parabolic growth patterns -- so I assumed I would indeed find some tendencies in past bubbles that I could then apply to the current growth pattern in gold, to help give us some idea about how such a pattern would typically develop.But once I started to dig deeper I was absolutely stunned at what I was seeing.
To categorize these parabolic bubble patterns as similar would be a wild understatement. These patterns are so alike that it is truly amazing.
Over the past month I've spent a lot of time trying to better understand why these growth patterns are so consistent and repeatable, and I've come to the conclusion that it has to do with the fundamental way things grow and develop in the natural world. Nature has a blueprint for growth, and the way that energy is added into an expanding system follows universal principles of propagation and growth.
Financial markets are no different than any other natural system. They also follow these same universal principles of energy flow, propagation, and growth, and this is why there are consistent and repeatable patterns in financial markets.
And the most amazing of all financial market patterns is the parabolic "bubble" pattern.
I have found astonishing similarities between all of the "name-brand" parabolic bubble patterns over the last century: The Dow in the 1920s, the Nikkei in the 1980s, the Internet bubble in the 1990s, as well as the recent bubbles in housing and crude oil.
Gold is the next such bubble pattern, and it is just now approaching the most intense part of the pattern, where the energy expands at exponential rates.
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anyway i couldnt wait any longer so bought some more at the weekend and today (have a bad feeling about the budget and sterling)
i will have to save some more currency for a potential low in June (if sinclair is right)
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From the gold thread,
I have actually purchased 6 chickens at the cost of £11 each around mid 2008, and after a few weeks of getting them settled down and feeding them approximately 1 bag of pellets a month (cost of £6.50) I am currently getting at least 36 eggs per week.
http://www.poultry.allotment.org.uk/Chicke...s_economics.php
There are a few very good posts regarding producing food and the cost of it, and it got me wondering if there are many other GEI members who are currently “digging in” and producing home grown food ?
Currently in the greenhouse:
Tomotoes (Bush, Moneymaker & Roma (Seedless)
Sweet corn
Leeks
Beetroot
Courgettes (variety “Gold rush” lol – couldn’t resist growing these)
Runner beans
Cucumber
Strawberries
Various salad leaves
Currently sown in the ground:
Broccoli
Brussels sprouts
Some useful links :
http://www.allotment.org.uk/vegetable/gene...table-chart.php
good idea
made some raised beds two years ago
need to spend more time on them though as yields are not great
main reason for starting project is that i want to avoid all the GM and chemical foods
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nice to see the gold miners going up today
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In a hyperinflationary catastrophe boom anything real/tangible could become an object of speculation, e.g. heavy farming machinery or portaloos. ANYTHING will be better than cash, but the precious metals will rule.
only if those portaloos are good for flushing currency
anyway im ordering some chickens
eggs are the new currency
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latest from Alf
How will the current crisis end?How will the current crisis end? As mentioned, this is a war between fiat money and sound money. It is extremely unlikely that Governments will voluntarily give up their freedom to create fiat money at will. They will have to reach a point where there is no alternative to introducing sound money because citizens finally refuse to accept the fiat currencies. This journey will probably be decidedly unpleasant.
Fiat money will survive for as long as people are prepared to accept it in payment for goods and services. The end will come when the general populace rejects the fiat currency in favour of sound or “good” money.
The bottom line is that it is the people who will finally decide when this crisis will end, when they reject bad money and force the good, sound money into circulation.
How can this happen in the USA? We need to go back to examine the basics of banking. Centuries ago goldsmiths, the forerunners of modern banks, provided a storage service for metallic coin money. The receipts they issued were regarded as being as good as gold and enabled commercial transactions to take place easily. The goldsmiths’ profit came from storage charges.
Later the goldsmiths started issuing receipts for their own gold as loans and charging interest on those loans. Then they started lending fictitious receipts based on the gold they were holding in storage for clients. That was when they morphed from the sound business of storage into the murky waters of lending money belonging to others.
The same two functions are performed by modern banks – the transaction function and the loan function. The transaction function is easy, safe, but unexciting business. The loan function is much more profitable and invites risk taking. This is where problems normally emerge.
With the development of electronic money and electronic banking, the transaction function has become vital to continuing economic activity. This is why Governments are so determined to save their national banking systems, but this requires them to absorb all the bad investments and derivatives from the loan side of the banks.
It seems inevitable that before this crisis is resolved, that the two functions performed by banks, the transaction function and the loan function, will need to be separated.
It also seems inevitable that when government fiat money is rejected by the people, (following unbridled creation of new fiat money), that gold and silver will have to re-enter the national and international monetary systems. In our modern economies, with their electronic money transaction systems, gold and silver will need to be in an electronic format to be reintroduced as money.
Electronic gold and silver money already exists. Some people (ahead of their time) have perceived this need and set up the electronic transaction function of a banking system using gold and silver. James Turk at www.goldmoney.com is one such person. Their business provides a facility for people to open electronic gold and silver accounts. Goldmoney.com buys and holds the precious metals on behalf of clients who can use their holdings to make electronic payments from their accounts, either in gold or silver or by converting back to fiat currencies.
Goldmoney.com makes its profits from minor transaction fees and small margins between the buying and selling prices of precious metals. They only provide the storage and transaction functions of a bank. They do not get involved in the loan function. Thus goldmoney.com has also achieved the separation of the loan and transaction functions of a banking system.
I have no connection with goldmoney.com and only mention their business as an example of how good money may evolve and eventually drive out the less desirable fiat money from circulation. If you use goldmoney.com or any similar business, please be aware that you must do your own due diligence to satisfy yourself of the security of the operation.
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posted by crown over on hpc
but well worth a read
FSA good for purpose?
Following the Dunfermline Building Society collapse, I was approached by a well informed source who describes the way in which the sector was regulated. The attached commentary is a scathing indictment of FSA regulatory practice. This may not surprise you given the institutional self criticism in your report, but what may surprise you is the extent to which the problems continue and pose a threat to other societies like XXXXXXXXXX and XXXXXXXXXX.The individual concerned does not wish to be identified and I have edited the text accordingly. It is worrying in itself that people who wish to act in the public interest should feel that there is a climate of fear and vindictiveness in the FSA. You should, I think, consider how to ease this fear; otherwise problems which you should know about and act upon will remain hidden.
I would be grateful for your reaction.
Yours sincerely,
Vincent Cable MP
To give but one example of the abdication of regulatory responsibility, in 2005 and again in 2006 there were "Thematic Reviews" of mortgage books purchased by building societies from wholesale lenders. One XXXXXXXXXX book that was XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX contained several thousand loans categorised as "full status" - i.e. mortgages with properly evidenced income - but on which not a single loan file contained any proof of the borrowers' income from payslips, P60s, audited tax returns or bank statements. We had unearthed incontrovertible proof that societies had been paying high prices for what were ostensibly the safest residential mortgages, but were in fact risky self-certification loans. XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX FSA management turned a blind eye to that particular abuse, as it did to many others. XXXXXXXXXX was not reprimanded or sanctioned, and the societies who bought its loans were not directly contacted. The FSA's only action following the thematic review was to send a general "Dear CEO" letter to all building societies reminding them of the need to conduct thorough due diligence in advance of purchasing loan books from wholesale mortgage lenders. -
how come all the idiots are running the show
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6111932.ece
Bank's Barker backs 'risky' 100% mortgagesGrainne Gilmore
A member of the Bank of England's rate-setting committee said that mortgages which leave buyers with an immediate risk of negative equity should not be banned and that bank demands for big deposits from homeowners may have been "overdone."
Kate Barker, who was commissioned by the Government to write a report on the housing market several years ago, said “I’m not personally convinced I want to say we’d absolutely never have 100 per cent mortgages.
"You might want to have rules about the averages across the book — all that kind of thing. Rather than saying 'no never' because personal circumstances vary enormously," she told The Spectator.
Her comments fly in the face of the Government's pledge to crack down on riskier home loan deals which offer buyers 100 per cent or more of the value of their property. Gordon Brown recently suggested that 100 per cent mortgages should be banned.
Related Links
* House price fall sends 900,000 into negative equity
* Housing bounce may take year, say economists
* Signs emerge UK economy is 'turning corner'
Some 900,000 homeowners have been plunged into negative equity — owing more on their mortgage than their home is worth — after near 20 per cent falls in property prices, figures released yesterday by the Council of Mortgage Lenders showed.
A further 1.1 million homeowners have seen the equity in their property whittled down to less than 10 per cent.
Three in four of those in negative equity have an average shortfall of between £6,000 and £8,000, but nearly a quarter of a million borrowers have a shortfall close to £20,000. A further 13,000 homeowners are in negative equity by £37,000, it said.
Ms Barker also suggested that the banks had over-reacted to the credit crunch by withdrawing many mortgages for borrowers with small deposits.
Banks and building societies now only offer the most competitive mortgage deals to those with at least a 20 per cent down payment, while the very cheapest deals are reserved for those with a 40 per cent deposit. "The big slide down to 75-80 per cent [loan to value requirement] may be overdone," she said.
Speaking about the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) remit, Ms Barker also indicated that targeting inflation alone was not sufficient to ensure economic stability. The MPC is tasked with keeping inflation close to a target rate of 2 per cent. But last year it soared to 5.2 per cent, and is now expected to plummet close to zero.
“Do I think we should have perhaps looked a bit more at some of the money indicators?’ Yes, possibly that’s true.”
Yesterday, David Miles, the chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley who is set to join the MPC in summer, said there were signs that the worst of the country's recession may be over and that were now reasons to be guardedly optimistic about the economy.
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is it just me or does anyone else get quizzed by the banks when wiring funds over to goldmoney
how did we sleep walk into state control
its my money and I want to be able to do whatever i want with it without being forced to answer the questions
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worth a read
While President Obama’s fiscal stimulus will direct some funds to the rebuilding of America’saging infrastructure, unfortunately none will go to fixing the real cause of the problem, to wit
rebuilding the yellow brick road, i.e. reinstating the gold standard, whose dismantling is directly
responsible for the present crisis.
Because the power and wealth of private bankers and public government derives from the ability
to issue credit and spend money that does not, in fact, exist, we cannot expect a solution to be
implemented by those benefiting from the present situation.
Power and money are not easily come by and neither bankers nor politicians will willingly
relinquish the source of their fraudulent and considerable power, no matter how destructive the
consequences are to others.
This is why the rising price of gold is opposed by central banks. Governments and central banks
are colluding to extend the life span of their faltering institutions by furthering the illusion that
government IOUs, i.e. paper money, printed in exponentially increasing numbers are, in fact,
valuable like gold and silver.
The advantage offered to those invested in paper assets, e.g. cash, stocks, bonds, etc., is the
possibility of paper returns in paper based markets. When such returns prove increasingly
illusory as markets collapse, the flight from paper money will begin and the demand for gold and
silver will explode
This is what governments and bankers fear. Unfortunately for them and fortunately for us, the
efforts of bankers and politicians to extend their own power at the expense of others will soon
end. Soon, like the rest of us, they will be only concerned with saving themselves.
THE END OF AN ERA
We are in an unprecedented situation in unprecedented times. The process of monetary
debasement has now entered the realm of the unimaginable as a result of President Obama’s
historic multi-trillion dollar fiscal stimulus, a stimulus requiring the printing of so much money
it will make obvious the fact that fiat money has no value at all.
Needed change will come, but not until an economic collapse has destroyed the system by which
government and bankers prey on society. Today, government leadership is an oxymoron
designed to perpetuate the present system under the guise of change or any other buzzword that
will give those in power continued access to the government trough
This era, as with all such eras, according to Professor David Hackett Fisher (The Great Wave:
Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History, 2000, Oxford University Press), will end in
economic collapse; and, out of that collapse, another era will rise.
Attachment to the past in such times is reflexive and dangerous; and, attachment to the
foundation of that era, i.e. paper money and credit, is the most dangerous of all. The old is being
swept away and all those attached to its foundation will be swept away as well.
GOLD’S EVENTUAL ASCENT
Whereas communism mistakenly believed the state could create sustainable economic
prosperity, capitalism made the mistake of believing credit-based paper money could do the
same. These are two of the great lessons of this age.
Between the two ideologies, capitalism was closer to the truth, for human endeavor and human
desire are the basis of economic prosperity and capitalism fueled and indebted both in order to
profit. For three hundred years, the banker’s gambit worked. It does no longer.
Only after debt-based capital markets have collapsed and paper currencies are worthless will
another more equitable and sustainable model emerge. Then, it will not be a choice between
central bank credit-based paper money and gold and silver. In the end, only gold and silver will
be left.
We are in the end days of paper’s fraudulent reign. A behemoth fed by credit but now fettered by
debt, its days are numbered. But those who created the beast will not give up easily. They will be
forced to do so.
In the end, the markets will have their way; and, instead of government plunge protection teams
and central banks colluding with investment banks manipulating markets higher and gold and
silver lower, the towering and faltering edifice of debt will collapse on all who invested in paper
assets. In the dust of that collapse, gold and silver will triumph.
Then and at long last, Dorothy in her silver slippers will follow the yellow brick road back home
to an eventually more peaceful, free and prosperous world.
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I have bought Ag spoons and forks from ebay in the past at about spot and a couple of engraved trophies at below spot but this is a time consuming way to aquire silver.
I do however think silver in this form is the least likely to be confiscated.
can they be classified as dangerous weapons
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Time for a remake of Goldfinger with Daniel Craig?
We are living in a disaster and Brown is doing his best to bankrupt the UK
Goldfinger Brown Rides Againby Doug Casey
All the hot air emanating from the participants of the just concluded G20 Summit in London has, with the help of the breathless press, made its way into our neighborhood and lifted the Gordon Brown Alert wind sock atop the Casey Research headquarters.
A little background: Gordon Brown, Britain's prime minister, became infamous for his, let's say, slightly off judgment when he was still serving as chancellor of the Exchequer. Between 1999 and 2002, Brown managed to sell 400 tons or 60% of the country's gold at the very bottom of gold's 20-year bear market. The average price per ounce achieved at the 17 gold auctions was $275 - costing British taxpayers around $2.96 billion. This stroke of genius earned the chancellor such sterling titles as "Sold The Gold Brown" and "Bottom Brown," among others that don't meet our PG rating for publishing.
GOLD
in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
Posted
youre not alone
suppose it depends whether you trade short term movements