Justin Thyme

The highest unemployment rate since 2004 and the largest monthly jump since 1986 !!

Bernanke complete with his inappropriate rhetoric earlier this week are now, officially, obsolete. No way the fed can even dare to mention the possibility of hiking rates. More likely that these numbers combined with higher oil and the delayed fallout from the monoline downgrades are going force another cut

Not really understanding gold's action though. A quick spike then smacked right back down . . .

Gold sure is getting hosed . . .

Let's see if support holds . . . if not, we're in trouble . . .

Lot of talk this week about 10 yr Treasuries yielding over 4%. Lots of analysts pricing in a Fed Funds rate increase before year end to tackle inflation. Theoretically this would not bode well for gold but is the spectre of serious US inflation enough to keep it immune to anything short of 200 b.p. increases or more ?

He said the low of the current correction would be in by the first week of May. So long as this doesn't go below $850 he will be right. Gold did some serious messing around between 1970 and 1980, worse than we have seen this time. I know that history may not repeat itself but its the best we have to go on.

 

I've only been following gold since it got to about $800. How accurate have Jims views been before that?

I can't really say as I only got into gold in October last year and that was on MoneyWeek's say so . . . and there I was considering cancelling the £59 subscription before the trial was up

That would be THE buying opportunity of the decade! Too good to be true IMO.

I'd rather I didn't have to avail myself of that opportunity, thanks . . .

I realise that long term, gold will kick ass but I don't wanna be put in a position where physical i bought at $700 comes off to $650. I'm a gold bull no question but I ain't blinkered. If the wheels come off this sucker, I've got no allegiance whatsoever. Sinclair made a song and dance about the 1st week of May but that's been and gone and gold's in the hole albeit temporarily. No one's expecting the guy to be spot on every time but situations like this call for an open and flexible mind.

Fed to make fresh batch of bank loans

Thursday May 29, 2:55 pm ET

By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer

Fed to keep making bank loans available to ease credit stresses

 

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve announced Thursday that it will make a fresh batch of short-term cash loans available to squeezed banks as part of an ongoing effort to ease stressed credit markets.

 

The Fed said it will conduct three auctions in June, with each one making $75 billion available in short-term cash loans.

 

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080529/fed_credit_crisis.html?.v=3

 

"three auctions in June, with each one making $75 billion" !!!!

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the size of payout increasing each time.

I'm dead certain that I just heard "Breaking News" on CNBC that the Fed has agreed to take foreign assets as collateral for loans provided they're from good quality banking entities.

Looks like Marceau's suspicions of one more sell off in gold were pretty much on the money. Firmly below $900 as I type and looks like it could go significantly lower. I would back up the truck but I'm keen to get involved in some of the junior miners and some sort of play on Japan.

Having seen the action in gold today I fully expected to see a few more pages on this thread.

Isn't it nice to see gold out on its own today. WTI is off but our stuff is up 14 bucks - could this be a turning point ?

David Cameron has just been mocking Brown's "financial genius" at PMQs. "This is the man who sold gold at the bottom of the market."

 

So, will gold become a mainstream topic, I wonder?

I suspect not until it manages to hold above $1000/oz . . .

Even then, it's not something that tends to affect people's daily lives in the way the price of oil does. People don't really need to understand the fundamentals behind oil's rise - all they know is it's ridiculously expensive to fill the Mondeo. Can't see the Sun running a "Remedial Precious Metals 101" spread next to Keeley Hazell's rack somehow

I don't know who is right or wrong (as I haven't been following the details of your altercation), but, regardless of who is the 'winner', I feel that in your last couple of replies, this thread took a small retrograde step towards one aspect of its HPC roots that it seemed to have managed up till now to leave behind.

To be honest, I knew from the moment the thread appeared that it wouldn't be long before this sort of thing reared its head. All the Mad Max-ers who advise buying physical gold, a Glock sidearm and a couple of flashlights can be mildly amusing but this site is geared toward serious but friendly debate on how best to make and preserve wealth in a global environment which seems hell-bent on eroding it.

It'd be nice if we could keep it cvil . . .

Most organisations have "people" on-call over holiday periods to comment to the press. My missus has to do it now and again for her (public sector) organisation. Given the current climate I don't find it hugely surprising that the BoE press office is working this weekend.

Fair enough but I won't be surprised if something major is announced this week

If this denial had been released on any other day, it might hold water but how could the Fed and the BoE get this out within hours of the story surfacing on Easter Saturday especially as they swore blind that leave over the holiday period had NOT been cancelled ?

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews...246240120080322

Sorry if this has been posted elsewhere but I'm shocked . . .

Could they actually get away with it ??

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a233faa2-f789-11...0077b07658.html

"Central banks on both sides of the Atlantic are actively engaged in discussions about the feasibility of mass purchases of mortgage-backed securities as a possible solution to the credit crisis.

Such a move would involve the use of public funds to shore up the market in a key financial instrument and restore confidence by ending the current vicious circle of forced sales, falling prices and weakening balance sheets."

No, I am saying that M3 doesn't have to filter through to the base level western consumer to have an impact. It does have an impact when it ends up in the hands of the big dollar holders (which it does 90% of the time).

 

We are getting new money from M3, that it doesn't hit the pocket of Billy Bob Bucktooth in South Carolina is irrelevant to commodities as per my post above.

Do you mean to say that all the extra liquidity being pumped into the banks is ending up being used for speculation in the commodity markets ?

None of the cuts made in the Fed funds rate have really made it into the pockets of Joe Sixpack and Sally Housecoat. Mortgage rates continue to rise just like they're doing here so all this effort is aimed at supporting the banks . . . period. There was a full 100 bps cut this week but was very cleverly presented with the discount rate cut by 25bps on Sunday night with another 75bps on Tuesday. The herd saw what the Fed wanted them to see.

The Fed have pulled off a masterstroke - they've bitch-slapped commodities into line, strengthened the greenback against the euro, pushed the Dow back up over 12300, eased liquidity by pledging to take on moody mortgage paper from anybody upstream of the hedge funds and given the impression they're getting tough on inflation by giving the market 75bps when they obviously wanted 100.

My BV position is now back to where it was 05/01/08 (gulp!) - my first experience of a correction so I know how it feels now - bl00dy awful!

Oh yes . . . it's nasty. I bought in fairly early near $700 gold and $13 for silver and this has shown me the other side of the coin. It's made me wish I'd sold off silver as I watched it hit $21+ on Sunday night as Asian markets opened. Ah well "coulda, woulda, shoulda"

Patience, patience. Climb that wall of fear. All those fresh new dollars have not suddenly disappeared.

Absolutely spot on. It is disconcerting to see the prices drop like this but there is no doubt that the trillion or so extra bucks - so far - floating around the financial system and the certaintly of the long-term trend in commodities will see buyers PILE in sooner than the pundits think. I'm going to keep a very, very close eye on the price action in the coming days.

I'm not paying much mind to the very negative technical analysis that the talking heads on Gloomberg trot out to talk down gold and oil - all of these guys are wearing threadbare £129.99 suits and ties from Asda fer cryin' out loud and, more importantly, TA simply cannot predict events of the magnitude that we've seen in the last week or so.

There has to be some sort of central bank intervention going on in the currency markets. How the hell is the dollar gaining on the dollar after a 75bps cut ?

Does anyone here really believe that the Fed is done cutting rates and therefore "getting tough on inflation" ? What else is in the Fed's armoury ? I mean, they're down to 2.25% - can they really revisit Greenspan's 1% and, if so, for how long ?

This is very bad . . .

$918 and below $18 silver

That's incredible as I paid around 2% commission when I last bought silver off GM back in the summer of 2006.

 

Just goes to show that you can no longer buy physical silver anywhere near official prices, only paper silver. Note they're quite happy to take your physical at the spot price though...

Yeah it does stink a bit, doesn't it ? I think if silver comes off a bit more, I might just swallow the mark-up cos if it's holding where it is at the moment, perhaps the recent parabolic moves really are underpinned by solid investor support rather than fickle speculator funds looking for a quick way to meet margin calls

It doesn't add anything either, but about 20 mins ago, I bought some more gold and silver.

I was just about to buy more silver thru GoldMoney but realised they chuck a buck on the price of an ounce. I mean, spot rate was $18.86 and they wanted $19.96 Considering I was gonna pick up a tousand ounces, that's $900 or £450 . . . no way Jose

I don't remember them being so pricey when I bought silver thru them initially.

Anyone know any other way to buy silver . . . apart from an ETF ?

Gotta hand it to the "cartel" . . . they've done very well getting gold and silver down so heavily. Stark contrast to Sunday night/Monday morning when we had $1030 and $21.50 respectively. I dunno where the money's going but it doesn't seem to be equities. Hoarding cash for a big announcement, perhaps ?

Isn't there support at $960 ??

Silver appears to be heading below $19

We're gettin' hosed . . .