jerpy

Following on the near bombed out theme and reasons for optimism, article published in Mineweb.

"It may be difficult to believe, but there are a number of emerging uranium producers with stories that are likely to bring rewards to investors. Until then, the good news for investors is that the Bank Credit Analyst recently asked whether (general) commodity mania had entered the dangerous terminal phase, and, pointing to five of its favorite signposts, found that none were yet worrisome. It added, however, that "the ingredients are in place for a full fledged commodity mania throughout the remainder of this decade".

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/minewe...8&sn=Detail

We are in the post capitulation despair phase

 

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/45859/uraniu...-companies.html

So is this not the time to start looking for bargains or real long term plays?

Keeping an eye on Thorium power, only 8 employees but a uranium play that may

have gone past the despair point, but long term story to be unfolded if you can wait i guess

Riggers

Just noticed a preliminary approach in for Mercator Gold.

Riggers

p.s strong suspicion it was shorted down.

Found this article interesting. Small extract from 20th March 08.

Much of the selling in gold was due to a giant macro hedge fund that had to sell positions in order to meet investor redemptions. John Meriwether, who if you remember was the guy who set up the Long-Term Capital hedge fund that blew up in 1998, apparently faced huge redemptions yesterday in a group of billion dollar hedge funds. His Relative Value Opportunity fund suffered a 24% loss in its fixed income fund. He also has a billion dollar macro hedge fund down around 9% this year. It is likely that he had to sell gold and commodity positions in this fund to meet redemptions or get off margin.

I believe this contributed to the sharp drop in gold and gold stocks yesterday. However, remember that I was talking about a likely correction over the weekend, so a drop was likely anyway due to the charts. Oil stocks in particular were very vulnerable going into this week.

That wasn't the only news that swamped the market yesterday. Thornburg Mortgage revealed that it has to raise at least $948 million in the next week in order to stay in business.

This remains a very dangerous and volatile market. Although the market is oversold and could hold the 1270 support level on the S&P 500 for a few weeks I believe that this level is eventually going to be breached and I expect that event to lead to a panic waterfall decline in the market. The longer the S&P 500 stays above the 1270 support level the worse the drop will be once it eventually closes below it. The selling in gold and commodities is not a sign that all is well, but is simply the start of the deleveraging of hedge funds that will climax in a sharp market drop that will mark the end of this bear leg that began back in October. Once it ends I expect gold stocks to resume their leadership of the market for the rest of the year.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-9737.htm

Is anyone else a little ashamed at the lack of vision UK traders are showing at the moment. It's almost as if they know they should pull the plug and sell, but have to wait for confirmation from their US mentors before they actually do. It's like they have no mind of their own, the FTSE should, in reality be another few hundred down by now, and no doubt will be this afternoon when NY opens. Why UK traders don't have the balls to play the facts is beyond me.

Given where the Dow is now, maybe they should have held their nerve longer?

Interesting RNS on BRR. Don't hold these but from their statement, there seems to be some significance in this piece of information

"Completion of our first quarter's production confirms that our exclusive license for the ConRoast process can provide emerging PGM producers with an economic alternative for smelting their concentrates with significant levels of chrome. It further demonstrates that the process is efficient, economical and environmentally friendly".

My first thought was they had planned a 10mw smelter, but i'm trying to understand there seems to be some kind of different significance about this? Is it revoloutionary, does it give them an edge?

Will this affect others in the sector, do they need to embrace this sort of technology?

Anybody help me out here?

NEW YORK/LONDON, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Platinum surged 3 percent to hit a record high for the 12th successive day on Friday, with acute power problems in top producer South Africa encouraging investors and consumers to buy up the metal.

Spot metal hit a high of $2,060 an ounce before easing to $2,050/2,055 by 2:59 p.m. EST (1959 GMT), against $1,997/2,007 in New York late on Thursday. It has jumped more than 34 percent this year on the top of 37 percent gains recorded in 2007.

"It's panic, panic, panic. If you are a platinum consumer, you are not going to sleep at night," said Robin Bhar, metals analyst at UBS Investment Bank.

"The price move shows you the unprecedented nature of the market. People can see actual physical shortages somewhere down the road and prices moving away from them. It's not a case of just speculation. There is genuine demand coming through."

The article highlights the platinum deficit could widen to "400,000 to 500,000 ounces by the end of 2008, compared with about 265,000 ounces in 2007. The market had a surplus of 65,000 ounces in 2006 following seven successive years of deficits".

But to give balance it highlights some traders have concerns and suggests there could be a pullback of up to $200 ""We already know that platinum is a news-driven market. It's all coming out of South Africa. If everything stays the same right now, and if the shortfall is not going to get greater, this market will not go substantially higher," said Ralph D'Esposito, NYMEX floor trader with RJ Futures in New York.

Notes on Stillwater:

* In general, Stillwater looks like a good buy if one expects platinum to maintain current high levels.

* They have plenty of proven/probable reserves at decent grades. Current market cap is about $33/oz of P&P PGMs (80% of which is palladium.)

* Stillwater is highly leveraged to PGM prices, and specifically palladium. Platinum is only 20% of production.

* They have some hedges in place (at $1035/oz) on ~1/3 of platinum production between Oct 07 and June 08. Some of the loss was already taken last quarter. I suspect there will be another $5-10MM hedging loss taken for Q407.

* They have the assets in place to make a lot of money, but they are a high cost miner and thus highly leveraged to the commodity price. My model indicates that constant platinum price of $1350 and Palladium of $300 would support the current market price. Platinum at $1500 and Palladium at $360 (constant over time) doubles the intrinsic value.

* They should cash flow around $2/share in 08 (at current prices) which could support a $20 share price.

 

I'd like to compare to other PGM producers, and research supply/demand fundamentals of palladium market, prior to reaching a conclusion on this one.

Ace,

Know you posted these have since risen, but have you seen the article on Palladium, i've just posted on the palladium fund thread, looking for others insight. Asked for comments.

Maybe it should be re-named Palladium thread instead of Palladium fund?

Riggers

Hi Riggers,

 

Thanks for your interest - will do my best!

 

jaguar2001

Another FRR will do fine

Stillwater is up about 60% since I posted this a couple weeks ago. If I had bought it, it would have went down 60% instead.

Got any more research notes? Only interested if you promise not to buy them though

Riggers,

 

MGU is basically a shell that the SLV/DWY team will reverse deals into.

 

When I invested, no one could tell me anything about the company!

 

They did not even have a web site.

 

But the big boys are on board there and these guys like their reputations.

 

Management is excited ----

 

Good luck

 

jaguar2001

Appreciate that Jaguar. If you can spot shares in their infancy like that, i reckon others would welcome your comments on here more often.

Riggers

Magnum? Take a look at my ADVFN thread - has been a bit lonely there

 

Magnum - Sylvania and Dwyka's Baby Sister ASX:MGU (MGU)

 

http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=14923690

 

Why some people don't get in now at around 20 cents and they prefer to wait till this comes to London (planned) at much higher prices beats me!

 

jaguar2001/ smilewithme

Hi Jaguar,

Had already read it, very lively debate, so many posts. L.O.L

Will keep my eye on it for information

Thanks for reference though, will no doubt help others form an opinion.

Riggers

I thought Magnum was a uranium play - do you ave a ticker?

 

Palladium is cheap compared to tother metals imo

Sorry Frizzers, read a post elsewhere, got it a bit wrong, actually in Tantalum. They are an off-shoot, but i looked for a web site myself and found it.

http://www.mmel.com.au/

Still looks of interest, comment if you wish, but going to find more info myself.

Riggers

Yes, I'm worried about South Africa with this week's events ...

Frizzers

Looking around, i've just spoted Magnum, which appears to be an off-shoot of Slyvania and Dwyka.

They are a palladium play to(sorry if slightly off topic), but the price of this is fairly low, but comments on abound it could bounce. Hence my interest. Don't hold, but seriously looking at it for my first none uk play.

Any thoughts on this resource or company?

Yep - and you can pick up Platinum Australia for nowt today too!

More to the point it looks to be operating in a more stable environment. It seems the opportunities and decisions to select shares are narrowing at the moment.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=39829

Certainly seems South(Southern even) Africa might not be the place to invest, but is doing wonders for the Platinum price.

Struggling to get my head round this and sometimes wish some of you metals boffins would answer my odd question.

Researching this sector, everything points to high prices, yet as the article suggests, stocks massively underperforming.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/minewe...4&sn=Detail

Why is this sectors miners regardless of sixe,listing country or stage of production all suffering negative performance, when there appears a shortage of platinum and the price is at record highs?

What's held these back, the same doesn't seem to apply to gold stocks?

Riggers

Read about platmin and their prospects on short note in I.C. Got them marked to watch, but who are beartooth, not heard of them. Any more info links you can pass on please No6?

 

Riggers

Now here's a find. A fund that is heavily into Platinum, which given it's in a bull run, with a wide holding of stocks this ought to outperform.....surely?

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/minewe...2&sn=Detail

The fund also highlights the expectancy for sector consolidation.

Riggers

There are so few platinum companies that if one discovers a resource they can really fly.

 

Platinum Australia, Sylvania and Platmin are all examples of this.

 

I'm hoping Beartooth will do the same.

Read about platmin and their prospects on short note in I.C. Got them marked to watch, but who are beartooth, not heard of them. Any more info links you can pass on please No6?

Riggers

Greatland are an AIM explorer in Tasmania. They interviewed on CWR (very well) a few months back. Can't remember ticker.

Greatland Gold are GGP/LSE. The September article of Mining Journal featured them. You're welcome to the tip Dr Bubb, I don't intend to invest until next year as I don't think it's going anywhere in a hurry.But genuinely intrigued as since launch the sp has gone down and seems to have missed the "hype stage".

Have successfully traded shares for several years, but mining is a sector i guess at, so looking to learn more from others and understand mining fundamentals more. That's what worries me with GGP, prospects, management etc looks good yet s.p performance doesn't seem to reflect them. So am i missing something or is it just at a none exciting share price stage, with the best presumsbly to come on updates?

Hello Dr Bubb,

Been reading threads on here for a few weeks, finally decided to register, as this looks a great board.

Slightly perplexed though after I read the article on Greatland Gold in the September Mining Journal and their share price doesn't seem to match your theory at the start of the thread as it seems to have drifted down bar the odd spike since launch.

The company seems well funded, gives regular updates, has experienced personnel. But I guess it's some time from production, hence the share price apathy. Don't hold, but interested as a long term play and would welcome how you view them in-line with stages of production chart you post at the start of this thread. Know there is a company specific thread, but more interested in how to judge them in your theory.

thanks

Riggers