chazza

It's time to start getting BULLISH on Silver.

 

Punched through the 144dma with more conviction this time.

 

It will flatten out PDQ if we can hold station above it for just a couple of weeks, and even more from next month after the Apr drop falls out of the calculation.

 

I see it as being slammed down yesterday on touching the 150sma the previous day.

Headed-towards the Peak Talk?

 

Do BTL investors get Help-To-Buy

Its crazy, there has to be a better trade....but then a lot of people said that 5/10/15 years ago. And if the trend is your friend....

BTL, i dont think they do

Lots of chat between my colleagues and friends about buying houses/starting BTL/property portfolios for the long game.

http://kingworldnews...l_Ever_See.htmlhttp://kingworldnews...l_Ever_See.html

 

Can you overlay that over the price?

So when will investors be prepared to test the waters again. My guess, 1550.

Personally, would like to see a back test of the downtrend line we brokout of in August this year. That would mean 1590 area.

GCL LN (Geiger Counter): I just saw the price of this recently: 33p! From a high of 133.25 in April last year. Lows at 12. 4 years ago (from what i can see).

I havent looked at Uranium for a while. Anyone following the sector closely?

How much worse?

 

The BIG DIVE in Rightmove figures, usually comes in August.

We may have seen it a month early this year, or August could be really bad

shocking UK GDP figures. -0.7% vs -0.2 expected

Mate just selling in London, bght in 2007, made 50% in 5yrs...

downtrend resumed

20 target?

Without wanting to sound big-headed, are you aware of anyone who has called it better?

If so, I want to know who, so I can start paying more attention to them

(I am always happy to learn from other's techniques)

 

You have called for far too many tops to say the above statement with a straight face

I'm pretty handy at the building, joinery stuff etc and have most of the tools. So, I know when they are taking the piss.

yeah, i think thats the key. I dont mind doing it myself, though i dont have the time (kids & job get in the way). Though i guess the saying "throw enough mud..." carries some weight here as I guess a few people have no idea and just pay up (my wife seems a prime candidate here.. ).

In a related note, getting quotes/work done to the house. Some of the quotes are unbelievable.

It would seem the tradesmen associated with housing are not feeling the pinch yet.

If I lose my job (not insignificant odds) i might consider becoming a chippy/painter and decorator to make my fortune...

I have 26.50, 26.32, your 23/24 and then 21. Why do you think the 26's will be taken out, or do you not consider them support?

Yeah, i think 26 should be reasonable support. Maybe 23 does (or doesnt) come from a panic low. I see 23-area as the bottom of a nice downward channel.

Maybe that is a bit too far, 25 as 50% retracement should also be a decent support. Maybe I wont be greedy and will look for 25-26 area.

Looking for above 70 G:S and 23/24 area silver.

I've always said this.

Most importantly it will give you a cushion of a smaller mortgage and more equity when interest rates go back up.

Agreed, you can get lulled into a false sense of security with low rates, fogetting how much debt 'one' may actually have behind those low monthly repayements.

Looks like a a resonable entry point in gold in GBP, on 255 day SMA. First Sipp investment.

Think we could see a retest of break out line, low 1000 area.

Think its a similar picture in silver which is why im not getting involved there just yet...

May I ask what sort of investment fund you are talking about? I might be interested...

http://www.pmm-partners.co.uk/funds.html

Its not bad and it'll probably be okay given the valuations of Berlin property vs elsewhere and, say, Germany leaves the Eurozone...

Wouldnt mind re-allocating a portion however

A very quick and unscientific look at the immobilienscout website suggested that prices at the top end in the big German cities are rising at about 15 to 20 percent a year. Of course it is a website for the selling of real estate so those figures could be exaggerated, asking prices in my area are about 20 to 25 percent higher than 2 years ago. One tennanted flat for sale is proudly announcing a 4.24 percent yield. Rents are rising quickly.

Not according to my fund though it does seem that over the past year things are moving a bit more.

The ability to raise rents (which is happening a bit more) is helping.

Apparently there is some sort of crack-up boom in housing in Germany, reports Der Spiegel today.

 

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/service/0,1518,799698,00.html

 

Not sure this charts' data is reliable enought to show this:

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since2006/German_House_Price_Index.html

At last, might be able to offload my Berlin investment fund then..

Fundamentals will always rule in the end.

If you know all of the fundamentals I would completely agree with you.

Okay.

I changed the title to :

 

"GOLD - with a Buy & Hold emphasis"

 

Any objections?

What should the subtitle be? (if anything)

"Occasional Trading ideas welcome" ?

"Identifying top-up points" ?

"Keeping the confidence, Staying the course" ?

 

This old chart from page 1, is still relevant, isn't it:

 

 

 

I feel like the BAHAIs and BAHAHs might both be happier now that I have re-titled the other thread:

 

"Beating Buy&Hold - thru Disciplined Speculation"

 

I think everyone here should be statisfied with that Title, and not feel like they have to Jump in every time I post something to try and tell people that "Buy and Hold could be better for the average person, who may not be a discipline speculator."

i think "Gold" was the best title

So that's £1000 per week, and at 5% yield implies a Property worth £ 1 million.

Have I got that right?

 

 

I have a hard time imagining how the UK can sustain prices that high.

Mine was £2.5k for a 3 bed flat in SW London a year ago, so can imagine $4k quite easily, esp with a family.

I have 2 kids now, part of the reason i bought.

And because we are in a massive bull market in housing

There is a VERY subjectve channel from the April 09 - June lows, feb 09 top which silver tested with its spike low on the 26th. I think we retest that channel, so 26.70, or 25.0 for a lower low. Then looking for a rebound to 33/34 area.

Close your ears Pixel8r, I think this calls for an ETF punt...

I have taken the opportunity to swap some gold to silver today via GM, It seems a good way to handle the swings in the market to me. I have done 3 swaps now and each time it has worked out well for me, hopefully this time will as well.

Likewise. Although one should take onboard how GM do it. The exchange is fixed at 12pm - london fixing. My brain was struggling to put 2 + 2 together when i put in my order.

When I got to work the prices were such that the ratio was about 63, my first target on the ratio being 60, I put an order in. Though thinking about it 5 secs after pressing execute....the volatility in the next 5hrs could mean the prices could be anywhere! Gt about 57 in the end so could have been worse.

Good chance we see higher numbers on the ratio, so might kick out the silver at 40 if we see a sharp rebound.

FWIW it's worth I just bought back 1/3 of the silver I swapped for gold in May.

 

But I kept the gold and put some more cash into silver ...

 

The ratio's broken up again. It could stop around 50 or it could go very high. We'll see.

Can see it testing high 50's at least, a nice downtrend line there.

Toying with buying some gold with my USD