chazza
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Posts posted by chazza
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i'm sorry to hear that GF.
you were the reason i started looking at gold in the first place, way back in the hpc gold thread heady days.
+1
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http://www.realclearmarkets.com/off_the_street2/2011/05/gold_standard_qe_iii.html
So bad, I had to post it.
There are several ways a gold standard might be implemented but the most likely in my opinion would be one where the Fed defines an exchange ratio for gold. In such a system, the Fed would announce a target price for gold and then conduct open market operations to achieve the target.So, let's assume for a moment that the Fed announces tomorrow that henceforth the Fed would conduct monetary policy to maintain the current price of gold. Or they might say that they would act to gradually reduce the price to say, $1000/ounce over a period of time. How would the market react to such an announcement?
One effect would surely be that all the speculators long gold would have no reason to keep speculating if the Fed is determined to stabilize or reduce the price. So the speculators would be selling. The same could be said about all the every day citizens who have been hoarding gold in fear of a dollar collapse. Assuming they had confidence in the Fed's determination and ability to maintain a target gold price, there would be no reason to maintain a large cache of the shiny stuff. I think it is also likely that foreign investors would want to convert some of their capital to newly stabilized dollars.
How would the Fed offset this surge in demand for dollars? To keep the price of gold stable, the Fed would have to increase the supply of dollars in the market. If they use normal open market operations to accomplish that it would mean purchasing Treasuries with newly printed dollars. Of course they could also buy gold to support the price as sellers enter the market, but the effect would be the same.
FT actually linked to this story.....
Wow
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Yes.
I can understand being p-ssed off. But it is likely, isn't it.
Homeowners and property investors have enjoyed certain tax benefits.
Isnt it likely that such benefits would be rescinded at some stage?
And even more taxes added, by a revenue-hungry government?
If you wait to buy, then you would see prices fall, making it more affordable to buy, and that would be a positive benefit
Yes I agree it is likely. Fixed assets and all that.
I guess the fairness thing pisses me off.
I wouldnt mind so much if I had benefitted from the market.
I guess one of the things that gets me the most is that the government keeps the market high to protect itself, its taxes and the banks and then says how good it is for the public.....
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Do you see a PATTERN here ?
(threads from HPC):
+ "Property Levies To Reduce Income Tax" / Top end...a start
+ Those Who Benefitted The Most Should Contribute The Most
There's a BIG RISK (of tax rises) for anyone buying expensive new property in London now, but no one is talking about it.
BTLers are (eventually) going to be a target. Look at this cigarette butt and think: BTL:
These would piss me off.
Having been off the generation where i havent 'benefitted' from rising property prices and having to pay a princely sum for a family home now.
I wonder how they will evaulte who has beenfitted from the rise, or in fact, they will just tax everyone living in more expensive houses.
Living in the commuter belt I will probably fall into that net. So I will have a double wammy: (i) having to pay an exorbitant price for a family home due to governemnt errors and poor policy and then (ii) having to pay again in more taxes for the privelege of buying an expensive home. Doesnt make sense.
If this comes in I will be looking at tax avoidance measures. I have always paid full tax. However this will be the final straw.
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Budget day today.
Let's see what the poor home owners (mortgaged masses) get handed out.
Heard there might be some sweetners given?
Institutions such as Aviva and Legal & General have been heavily linked with creating residential property funds, but stamp duty pushing up the cost of buying or building large portfolios has impeded investment.
However, it is now proposed that stamp duty on the purchase of more than one property will be calculated by the average value of the properties, not the bulk value. This means that if an investor buys 100 properties worth an average of £200,000, it will pay stamp duty at 1pc, equal to £200,000, rather than at 5pc, equal to £1m. The measure will cost the Treasury £560m over five years.
George Osborne has also launched consultations on making it easier for residential investors to become a Real Estate Investment Trust, which would mean they do not pay capital gains tax. In the 2012 Budget, the Chancellor is proposing to scrap the 2pc entry charge that landlords must pay to become a Reit and scrapping the rule restricting Reits to stock market-listed companies. This will allow pension funds to turn property portfolios into Reits and potentially allow smaller buy-to-let landlords to benefit from tax breaks on capital gains.
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, said: "Changes to Reits and stamp duty will.... provide a revolution in how rented homes are supplied."
However, the Chancellor also aims to stimulate investment through traditional housebuilders. As well as a £250m fund for first-time buyers, he will allow offices to be converted into homes without planning permission and auction public sector land for development.
If this is correct, this could provide some support for prices. Should also enable the banks to sell off whole portfolios quicker.
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This one here? http://gold.approximity.com/since1959/Gold_Price_to_MZM_Equilibrium_Price.html
Here is an explanation of what it shows: http://gold.approximity.com/gold_price_model.html
...
To explain, was chatting to some work colleages (in finance industry - i know, i know) about why I would (am) still buy(ing) gold. Didnt go into much detail so they could air there own views/make up their own minds.
I think one quietly gets it, the other was not a buyer at all "far too expensive".
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This one here? http://gold.approximity.com/since1959/Gold_Price_to_MZM_Equilibrium_Price.html
Here is an explanation of what it shows: http://gold.approximity.com/gold_price_model.html
Legend, thanks. I can see it now. Obviously too early for me!!
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GF, a favour please? Can you point me towards the Gold/MZM chart you use or have please. Struggling to find it on gold approxmity.
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Update on House. I put in an offer of 410K. Email from agent states " vendor already has an offer of 550K which they are considering, you offer is out of the ball court" I responded " Sorry your email is unclear. Did you say they had seen the offer, read it and rejected it?" I am awaiting a response. Remembering that the asking price was an over inflated 560K why would they be considering it? I'd bite their hand off!
Legally I believe they have to show the offer?
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Silver/GBP testing its previous all time high 21.63 (from above now of course). Next stop 26 or 20?
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I think it was around $2.40/£1, so £20.60/t.oz.
21.6364 from BBG
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Weybridge
I recall visiting there, and liking the canal link - and I found it oh-so-cheap compared with London.
But then, there are some areas of London that may look cheap soon too.
/see:
How times have changed....
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I'm a Thames lover, so I've liked the thought of Weybridge.
But it might be a little too suburban?
Possibly, but the fast train link into Waterloo helps you feel connected still.
Great for kids to grow up, which is my main reason.
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No, Rightmove is no good for this. This has to be an index of houses.
At some point the arb will come into play, yes, but the difference between FTB's of flats struggling to get a load and equity rich families in their 40s with solid careers is very big. And that is what is driving this.
And, in most cases, they will hold out for a garden ... seen as essential for the kids.
And location - near transport and jobs - is already in play. Using Battersea as our example, there is overland - Clapham Junction - and Northern Line - both going to City and West End in 15-20 mins. Plus buses, cars, bikes etc
Chazza, I know you were in this neck of the woods. Where have you moved to?
Weybridge...all very nice!
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I have just move to prime London commuterville, a friend here is selling his 4-bed to upsize. Within 2 weeks and before offical marketting commences, he has received (and declined) 2 full asking price offers...
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Well, this accurately reflects my experience of London.
No HPC here:
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/art...ow-in-hendon.do
The average detached family home hits the £1m mark -
I can agree with those experiences, however whilst there are a lot of what some people may think are average houses for £1mio+ in London, there is NO WAY that bungalow is £1mio.
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And how would the bank runs have been dealt with? And the riots when the government passed emergency legislation forbidding you from taking your money out of the bank. And the fact that, overnight, everyone would demand their wages in cash?
If bank failure/run-down was a viable option, don't you think the cowardly politicians would have taken it?
The world would not stop turning.
Agreed bank run down would be a difficult process and harder than bailing out, hence why the politicians (inevitably) took the easier option.
As you say they are cowards, anything to 'protect' us (themselves) from hardship.
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Ahh, the ultimate fallacy of the banking crisis - that if nothing had been done Britain would have ceased to function as a nation and somehow just sunk into the sea.
+1
The banks should have been left to fail/placed in run-down
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Three naked silver shorts that were recently spotted in the neighbourhood.
The lower pumpkin is the best I've seen.
Can't believe I will have to wait a year now to impress my kids by passing it off as my own idea.
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If you want to buy a futures contract you have to put down an initial deposit in order to initiate the trade. The deposit is called margin in industry parlance. So whereas the previous deposit was $5000, it has been increased to $6500. This ties up more working capital of those that are trading, and can have a dampening effect on prices and volume. Interestingly enough I was considering buying a mini future contract in silver just before it took a tumble today. I don't normally trade futures and I sure am glad I didn't make a special exception this time!
Just when it started to look like a penalty kick with no goalkeeper...
Probably a stupid question. What system would you trade that over?
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$950, weeeeheeee!!
My point is: there is never no chance. Gold, equities, football, whatever.
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Rightmove UP 3% today, London UP 5%.
What a load of rubbish, can't trust Rightmove
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Interesting. My rent is one 413th of the asking price our landlady couldn't sell her house for until we rented it this August. Can anyone beat that?
I imagine ours would be a similar mutliple where we are renting now
GOLD
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Yup, 1577.57 on the 2nd May