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Gatesy

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Posts posted by Gatesy

  2. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Fook...

     

    So it is Good Bye, Good Luck and God Bless

     

    ELLIOTT WAVE GOLD UPDATE 23

     

    Alf Field

     

     

    http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/field112408.html

     

    Still, he does say this...

     

    Looking at the chart below, the correction from $1015 to $699 is 31%! It sticks out like a sore thumb. Surely this is exactly the 32% correction that we should have been anticipating for Major TWO?

     

    Assuming that the $699 low on 23 October 2008 turns out to be the actual low point of the correction, and that remains to be proven, then we can conclude that we have seen the low point for Major TWO. That will allow us to update my original "back of the envelope" template to much higher levels, as follows:

     

    Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);

    Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);

    Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);

    Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);

    Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)

     

     

  8. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Interesting that they are referred to as anarchists when the basis of their claim is (presumably) the constitution itself.

    I believe a case was highlighted in that Zeitgeist film about someone who successfully argued in court, and won, that paper money was not real and therefore her debts were null and void (or something like that...)

  10. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    This should help put a floor under gold, at least for a while: (please ignore if you think Indian jewelry demand is irrelevant)

     

    India gold demand rises as price fall sharply

     

    The India jewelry demand story just cracks me up. One week I have this image of thousands of Indians walking past jewelry shops turning there noses up and the next an image of masses of them running into shops in the same manner as they squeeze onto public transport. What to believe hey?

  13. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Not sure if anyone has posted this yet:

     

    18 October 2008 — GoldMoney Alert from James Turk

    Gold's New Records

     

    Importantly, the debasement of the dollar is becoming so profound as central banks create "unlimited" amounts, the gold cartel will no longer be able to stop the watchdog from barking by capping the gold price. I expect new record highs in gold against the dollar and the euro by the end of this year.

     

    http://www.goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php#current

  14. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    :lol:

     

    Might be a market for high line wellies. (No offense meant to our celtic bretheren)

     

    Tom O'Brien in his show 17.10.08 1hr:33mins in argues we're going back up to $920... this might be useful:-

     

    GLD201008.png

     

    Excellent opinion on oil and commodities after that. If you go back to 1:15 Larry P reckons silver is set up for an easy $13 rise! Enjoy.

    Have you got a link?

  16. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    It seems like everything in the world is just worth less than it was -- whereas, in my simple model of the world, some money must be flowing into something and increasing that something's value, and I assumed that would be gold and silver...

    The last few weeks...........the good old greenback.

  18. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Has anyone any experience of making gold gram payments to another individual via Goldmoney? I was sure I saw that this could be done on Goldmoney but looking at the FAQ's it appears that only merchant type payments can be set up via a website. I was thinking more like a BACS transfer from one individual to another.

  19. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Last week I fixed my mortgage at 5.6% for 7 years. I think that IR's could well go down in the short term but I was not interested in saving a few quid now and risk getting caught out later! I did wonder whether I had done the right thing and was especially nervous last fri when electronic money was flying through the system. I was glued to the tv/computer and online banking hoping the system didnt implode that day!

    However, having done it I am feeling extremely relaxed, knowing exactly what is what for the next 7 yrs. AND 5.6% is still historically low.

    hope this helps

    Springer

    Cheers, yours and goldfingers comments very welcome. The fix does feel to be the way to go.

     

    edit: ps. which provider did you go with and why (if not lowest rate) if you don't mind me asking?

  20. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    A couple of pro-PM reads...

     

    Bailouts Will Soon Drive the Currency Markets: http://seekingalpha.com/article/99813-bail...urrency-markets

     

    The Golden Rule

     

    You see, the same problems that will drive down our stock markets WILL RESULT IN HIGHER INTEREST RATES AND MASSIVE INFLATION. The ONLY direction for interest rates is higher. Please note that I’m not talking about official rates set by monetary authorities. They will be slashed to near zero levels, but the Fed will not be able to control our multi trillion dollar economy by manipulating short term interest rates.

     

    I have a mortgage which tracks the BoE base rate (not libor) and as such have been pleased to bide my time in the short term to take advantage of the lowered interest rate and will be happy to do so until they hit at least 3.5%. What do folks think about the medium to long term prospects for 'official' central rates and the prospect of potentially having a mortgage with close to zero interest? Is this likely/probable? Of course I'd like to have no debt but that is not possible right now and it is not practical for me to re-mortgage to a long term fixed at the moment. I totally accept what is likely to happen to rates in the real market. I have been thinking about re-mortgaging to a long term fixed, but these are more closely linked to libor are they not so am in two minds given my current link to BoE base.

  23. SILVER

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Had you paid more attention then you would have seen my recent post with a statement of James Turk on this issue. Your believes today might be slightly different from what they are now.

    What so I'm supposed to sit by the computer waiting for you to post your thoughts, or at least make sure I've read what you've posted before I express an opinion. Were you trying to be obnoxious or is it just your nature?

     

    Do you mean " your beliefs now may be slightly different than they were earlier today" ? If I see said piece and James confirms that he now sees some issues in obtaining LBMA bars then you may be right. I have a lot of time for James Turk, and if he is now of the view that there is a shortage and that translates as a premium to paper futures on Goldmoney then "I [will] believe there is a gold shortage". Alright by you?

  24. SILVER

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    goldwatcher42ep0.png

    w600.png

    I must say this is a somewhat depressing chart for silver enthusiasts, and even makes me wonder where the enthusiasm really comes from for silver. Of course, I've heard all the statements about silver's potential to 'outperform gold' and in inflation adjusted terms hit treble digits, and to reach a ratio with gold of 35, which if gold got to $5000 would mean silver at $140 odd. And let's be honest, 'investing' in silver is somewhat speculative to say the least and for such faith one would certainly expect the sort of results laid out above to provide the necessary reward for the risk involved.

     

    But this sort of chart brings some cold faced reality to preceedings for me; as someone clever said recently, one of those "ugly facts" which blow away so many unquestionable theories. Now, I'm not sure what the average house price peak actually was this time around, but somewhere around £220k iirc. If you read this chart and compare the current situation with the bust of the 90's a house could be had for c.15k oz of silver. If you take this cycle's peak and cut 30% ( a conservative view of expected peak to trough drop I think you'll agree) and divide by the most optimisitc outcome in this ratio, of a return to the long term 5000 (seemingly the ratio before this infaltionary episode started in the 70's, you get £154k / 5000 = c.£31. At todays exchange rate of c £/$1.70 which I can't see improving as all this plays out that makes £52. This for me is a maximum, as if you change any of the other variables such as a steeper HPC or a stronger ratio, say 15000oz, the expected price outcome for silver is lower. Indeed if you get a 50% HPC and a ratio of 5000, perhaps a reasonable expectation, you get £22 or $37.4 at todays rate. If GBP tanks a lot further against the $ of course the returns start to look worse still.

     

    Now I'm not saying a 3 to 5 fold increase from here (uh hmmm $10 low...) is not an OK return under normal circumstances, but for timing your entry so right as to be buying at an average of $10 in order to hit these return rates, and for the rollercoaster? You decide.

     

    For the record I'm still in :lol:

  25. SILVER

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Are they having shortages of big heavy bars, or just coins?

     

    I'd be surprised if they had no big heavy bars.

    I believe there are no shortages of bars. A good proxy for this is the buy price on goldmoney. They buy LBMA bars. only when I see that price dislocate from 'paper' will I believe there is a gold shortage.

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