Gatesy

getting very close to that 200mda

I say again that although Ker is doing a lot of thinkin garound this the 200 week moving average is meaningless.

QUOTE (Compounded @ Oct 10 2008, 08:43 PM)

Volatility has been predicted to be massive as the system begins it's collapse - it makes sense if you think about it.

 

If someone is facing margin call or similar squeeze they sell the most liquid asset - gold IMO will be sold and prices affected.

 

 

Have to agree.

 

FWIW the spot price on 10th september was approximatley $750, so as far as I'm concerned I didn't sell any last month so I'm sure as feck not selling any this month.

 

Next week will be good fun if this week is anything to go by.

 

 

We just need to be like little fonzies.

Still is a nice large flag formation. I wonder how big the flag pole and flag will be in 2 or 3 years?

The USD has only 2 choices, either it goes to 100, or it plunges very soon:

Ker, although I don't disagree with your sentiment what relevance does the 200 week or 3.846 year moving average have...? I guess we can all choose a convenient looking MA to bounce off but this is a fooked up market right now and I have sold the dollar too early at least once already . Cheers DD

I promised myself I'd hang on until Thursday's rate decision before getting rid of more cash, but I'm being tested!

 

Andrew McP

From what I can gather the world seems to think there'll be global cuts this week? BofE to cut a quarter or even a half.

Usually, an increase in demand causes an increase in price, not the other way around?

Agreed, but we have also hypothesised on here before that those owning the gold (CB's) to be leased may want a higher return for leasing out their gold given perceived increased current (counterparty) risks.

ft article

Can you post the Lex comments, I don't have access but saw the paper today. Decent comments in first bit but then suggested jewellry demand in India had dried up, but quoting June figures. I'm pretty sure it's hit multi year records since then. Also suggested inflation was no longer a problem. Not well researched IMO.

USDX up sharply

 

 

Last trade 79.403 Change +1.683 (+2.17%)

yes, wondering if this is a good sell opportunity. The weekly RSI is well overbought. If a bail out goes through on Thursday surely negative again for USD.

So what does happen next?

No bail out if it remained that way would presumably spell continued disaster for stock markets. Say for a moment the bail outs stopped here then, congress stops rubber stamping Paulson and Bernanke's plans. What of the fortunes for PM's? I suppose today has shown where gold holds it own as a crisis hedge; so stocks could plummet by 90% and gold retains or even marginally increases in value (something I proposed a few weeks back on the inflation/deflation thread). It's other role as an inflation hedge would presumably go out of the window as we really would have a deflation on our hands.

But I think most here would argue that the bail outs won't stop, but they take a while to get through. So stock indices fall some more, gold stays rock steady, (as a crisis hedge), bail out's eventually come, stock indicies bounce ( a true dead cat bounce) but only a little, gold at this stage could take a hit as folk think the worst is over, but then the inflation from the bail outs really takes hold and gold starts it final up move without really pausing for breath. When does this all happen? I'm not sure at all but I suppose if I hold my gold I'll be alright ( I now think the inflation bit for gold will kick in 2nd half of 2009). Today's stability in gold did a great deal to dispel some of the doubts for me that I suspect many have had as to whether holding gold will pay off. As a relative newbie to gold (just over a year) and suffering the recent significant corrections within that year, doubts were easily created, but for me, now they are gone.

Moriarty puts it all in a lanuage dimwits like me can understand:

 

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty...arty092308.html

Fantastic piece. And there was me getting all complacent.

Or I could learn to stop worrying and embrace a possible financial Armageddon, which, according to the BBC, would be a nice, mild one anyway.

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7631281.stm

hmmmm. I'd put the comments in that article at about number 13-14 on the pompus prognosticators chart posted here the other day; scary.

Nice to see the likes of Minefinders, Kimber etc performing a bit better today, even with the pull back in G&S.

Is anyone waiting to take advantage of when the Treasury market tanks ? Shorting the Ishares Lehman 20yr ETF was mentioned somewhere not so long ago but any more suggestions would be welcome

I certainly am looking for such opportunities. True to crooked form IG have removed all US treasury instruments from their platform and you can only day trade and roll over TLT. Rediculous but predictable. Must tell you somehting about where they think bonds are going.

edit: Oh, and TLT is Unborrowable

What's the chances of a "retest of the lows" from here then?

ps. I agree with many here, what a day yesterday. I found I had goose pimples for much of the day...

ETFS Conference Call - 'Commodity Securities Limited - trading status'

Speaker: Graham Tuckwell, Chairman, ETF Securities Ltd

Date: 18th September, Time: 11:00am London Time

Date: 19th September, Time: 11:00am London Time

Go to homepage to register (you have to be 'institutional')...

If you listen carefully to Channel 4 news tonight they said "gold is the only safe investment left in America"....that could get a few minds stirring.

Looks like we're getting started towards a fair price.

I can't see the sell price but surely that's not "fair" if it's just a massive spread and you can;t sell at infalted prices too?

mmm...i would have expected oil to shoot up more if this was the case

Did you see the move back up from 91 to 97 in the last hour or so?

The silver belongs to the investor in the case of the unleveraged ETFs

 

The leveraged and inverse ETFs are simply tracking indexes produced by AIG. Investors in those would have lost all their money should AIG not have been baled out. But as I mentioned, ETF Securities is now going to change the relationship with AIG (or perhaps move to another partner) so that risk is eliminated in the future.

I'd maybe prefer they keep the relationship with AIG seeing as it has uncle sams backing. Like Northern Rock, some advise putting cash in there now...

Excuse the off topic, but can any interested parties tell me what the hell Norway has done so wrong compared ot the UK in the last week. GBPNOK rocketing too this afternoon. As far as i know Norway have massive surpluses through trading gas. Gas has increased 5% this afternoon as well

After a pause for breath she's off again !

Yeah... and the rise in oil is pretty minimal right? only a couple of bucks... compared to what we just saw in gold.

 

I think the banking crisis is driving this.... though we do not see directly a currency crisis yet, there is a more general monetary problem. Any whiff of a crisis with the monetary system and banks will create some demand for gold. Just wait for the currency crisis proper and we will be posting rockets galore.

 

Still, there may still be a few more dips as deleveraging continues... but I wonder if most of this has been worked through and the weaker hands have been shaken out.

I take on board the cautionary notes in the above posts as well, but gold could be seen as having been strong these last few weeks holding the long term trend in the chart below (overshooting to the downside slightly) still one swallow does not make a summer.

I feel there is a combo of factors apparently at play here. Nervousness re the system pushing up the lease rates and covering having to happen, feed into gold shares from the new anti-naked short statement. The only thing I;m not sure about is the effect on the bond market. i think I saw something earlier about lowest long yields since 1954 so they ahvenlt collased yet driving money into gold. It could be as you say RH, still to as fuel to the fire is money from currency panic and add to that money from bond panic.

edit: or a decent porno...

Before oil and gold always moved together, as if joined at the hip... this is not always the case now... they often move separately, but still occasionally together.

Feels like today any oil strength is getting sold into whereas gold strength is getting bought feeding on itself?

over 50 buck now....

Good for gold stocks ????

 

http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2008/2008-204.htm

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

2008-204

Washington, D.C., Sept. 17, 2008 — The Securities and Exchange Commission today took several coordinated actions to strengthen investor protections against “naked” short selling. The Commission’s actions will apply to the securities of all public companies, including all companies in the financial sector. The actions are effective at 12:01 a.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 18, 2008.

This and the gold/silver boost certainly feels like good news, but a millionaire footballer parking illegally is breaking the law, but is gettgin fined £30 a disincentive? ie. What will the real punishment be for breaking the law. ps wasn't it illegal already?

I took this as incredibly "weak dollar" talk.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

Fed Keeps Rate at 2%, Rebuffing Call for Reduction

Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and some slowing in export growth are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters,'' the FOMC statement said. ``Over time, the substantial easing of monetary policy combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate economic growth.''