Gatesy

Haven't read that article yet, but this one was in the Independent today, around about page 5 with big pitcure of gold bars at the top.... Shallow but visible articles creeping into the mainstream (well, if you call the independent mainstream...) http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-...ble-872392.html

Is there "side trade" to the oil one above which now presents itself? Natgas orices have corrected over the last couple of weeks after a very smooth run up from $7 to $13.5. Price has now corrected to $10.5. This puts the current gas/oil ratio at 12.4; the historical average is 6. Centirca have said today they expect gas prices to catch up with high oil prices of over the "next few years" and that UK household bills wil average £1000 pa. I haven;t had a massive amount of time to research gas, but I have been waiting for a correction as I;m sure there is a bullish medium to long term play here. If oil fell to $100 gas by rights should catch up to $18. If oil then launches again to say $200 with 24 months gas should be $33 based on long term ratios! The March 2010 contract right now is priced at $11.23, but admittedly it will cost you in margin to enter and maintain this trade. At 10000 mbtu's per contract thats $10000 margin for every $ move in the price (to put it simply). The upside of course is $10000 for every $ og growth in the price....

I am watching with interest with regard to Alf Field's thoughts from an EW perspective. His pointers suggest we are in Large wave III which will see gold rise from c.$850 up to $1578 with no more than a 7 or 8% correction at any time. So if you believe in this sort of analysis you could look at the correction of the last couple of days at c.%4 and allow for another 4% margin of error to place new longs. ie. From $989 on Tuesday you could consider a maximum drop to go to $910. Unlikely in my opinion at this stage . I think shallower corrections of around %4.5 are more likely ( thus we could hit $945 within 2 or 3 days) in validating "minor waves" as part of "small wave" ( if you get me....). Of course AF did fudge his analysis a fair bit IMO to account for the long meandering of May 06 to Aug 07, but I think EW has the potential to pan out better in a stronger rallying move of the like which we;ve seen in recent weeks. Could all be bunkum of course ! Edit: G&S moving higher as I type.

Sorry, not sure actually I just noticed this on the price list on the wall when I was in there once Probably just been wacked by Pigsy again, or gutted he missed the last pullback.

Yes, just to clarify I didn't pay anyone £45, my friendly next door neighbour bobby did it for free, just so you don;t all think I;m a dullard...

This was TOTALLY predictable. Council workers mass strike http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7508717.stm Apologies in advance to any council workers on here (who I'm sure do have the time during their day job to surf...) IMO the councils and council workers have been getting fat off over inflated government budgets and council tax collections for the last decade. How predictable then at a time where there is very little real chance of effective strikes in the private sector (cos they're mostly shit scared of losing there jobs), that council workers will feel they have a god given right to demand ever increasing pay deals to buy more cream eclairs and elephants feet off the old Doris who trundles round twice a day with her trolley. This will be a massive problem for the British resident over the coming years, Brown and Blair have got so much to answer for. How can a Traffic Warden possibly justify being paid more than a grunt in the army for example and expect more on top?

Can you believe my GP's charge £45 to validate passports?!

Unless your next door neighbour is one, like mine..

Yes, this last week has made me want to bump up my physical % a fair bit as well (depending if one classifies Goldmoney as physical...). Just transferred a wedge of fiat to GM in readiness.

Marvellous

I know stockcharts have the daily volumes but wondered whether there was intraday available on the cheap

Where are you getting you're intraday volume info Marceau? Are you looking at SLV amongst other things?

Is this support at 18.75 silver a good in or wil we penetrate that support before legging up again ??? (Double top in oil by the way?)

Thanks, and to ziknik and steve, I will take a look

Sorry to clog up the thread but someone posted a link on here to a streaming media file a little while ago and said they had some (free) software which could download streamed files for viewback offline later. Can anyone point me in the right direction? I have searched and googled but can't find a good free option...thanks

Well done BP; I second that pat on the back. I have only just found this thread and have only been active on GEI since Jan. I commend you on picking out this trade back in 06 and I hope you bought more than 1 contract ! I too was contemplating buying a long dated contract (somewhere into 2012) a couple of months ago before the move up from around $118. I was waiting for a pull back to $108 which didn't go back as far as I was expecting, and then woosh ! My dilema since has been when to get in, feeling the risk of a large correction increasing all the time. For me it is 50:50 whether we get a significant pullback soon or not before reaching $200.... I'm intreagued though, how would you view the opportunity now to enter such a trade? Personally, I like Dr Bubbs theory/hope that we get a $15 to $20 pullback with a 2012 target of $400. Oh and allow me, $400 in 2012 will be a cool $340k per contract profit on your Dec 06 price. Very sweet indeed, and of course you have plenty of margin built up already to ride out any short term drops.

Thanks Bobsta

A piece which raises many questions and much debate I expect. Two things which I'd be interested in opinion on: 1) The article talks about different M's as you'd expect; if relevent money supply is now going to contract sharply, I note with interest the point about 1930's tightening to halt the bullion loss under the gold standard. Between 1929 and 1932 this deflation caused the DOW to fall from a high of $381 to a low of $41. During this time , under the gold standard, gold was fixed at value $20.7 per ounce. The astute amongst you will note that the DOW/Gold ratio therefore fell from a heady 19 to 2 times. Now, if we had a gold standard today and tight policy did indeed exist, I could certainly see a similar scenario play out, where one could predict today's DOW falling from a high of aorund $13,000 dollars in 2007 to perhaps $1300 in 2010.... Owning dollars/pounds would be as good as owning gold as value would be maintained, and your purchasing power increasing by the day as goods get cheaper. Clearly there would be other issues to deal with such as mass unemployment amongst other things as demand for goods dries up amidst a collapsing economy and holding onto your gold backed money makes sense. But we don't have a gold standard, so even if we do get deflation of fiat money and the DOW falls to $1300, gold at 2 times the DOW, will rise to $2600. 2) As we know "The Federal Reserve stopped paying much attention to the data a long time ago. It has abolished M3 altogether". Is this article playing exactly into the hands of the media and public exactly as the US / fiat proponents wanted all along? Such that calls for looser policy, so as to avoid deflation, gets all this debt flushed down the toilet as per plan? In this scenario we all know that gold is going to the Moon, Mars and the Kuiper belt. Consider that between 1966 and 1980 (inflationary period) the DOW went from $1000 to $800 ( a 20% nominal fall or bear market). Gold went from $35 to $850. Looking to that DOW/Gold ratio again that's from 29 to 1. Say hello to $10,400 gold?

OT but the amazing part of that story was that regular swimmers at the pool at 6am (whilst it's still dark...) turned up as normal and swam without knowing.... I was wondering just how hungry that shark may have been having not had his breakfast !

GF, can't remember whether you are a fan of Silver Wheaton as a physical substitute? I seemed to settle on SW as a low cost way to gain ownership of ounces (via equity) a little while ago (given the large premiums on Goldmoney), but with the eq market turmoil as it is thought I'd give it the once over on here again..

cheers!

Yes,,, I took the sage's advice (The GLW) and sat tight I may be soory in the short term later today, but I have taken medium to long term positions and that's the way i should play them...

Worth cashing some futures in now to re-open later?... I've be burnt a little trying this in the past, but perhaps not at such a clear moment...