rigger
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Posts posted by rigger
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Bizarre,just watching the BBC and whilst Hillary and Trump compete to be the least liked and trustworthy.
BUT on the issue of who can bring change Trump wins 82-13.........................................That's a stunning figure.
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A lot higher if true then.
Pax Dickinson says the exit polls are leaked to Drudge as propaganda and that he had Kerry way ahead in '04. God knows, not sure we can trust anything, even the official result!!
The resultis the result but I'm very wary of exit polls especially with potentially unpopular candidates like Hillary and the Don.
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What's the usual total in modern times?
122 million 2004
131 mill 2008
129 mill 2012
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_the_United_States_presidential_elections
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"Clinton takes Pennsylvania."
If there was cheating it will be there (too)
Drudge now saying:
ELECTION WILL BE DECIDED BY EVENING VOTERS
**PROJECTED 140 MILLION TOTAL**
Exit polls can be hit and miss.Especially with an hour or two of voting left
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You've got to think this is going be reflected in the voting numbers to a certain extent. Would be Clinton voters who have got a cold, are tired, longer day ar work might be less enthused and think f it. The enthusiasm gap at the rallies was ridiculous. Tim Kaine had 3 people at 1 rally - not Clinton but the potential future VP a week before a massive election and he could fit everyone into a mini cooper
That's very mich my view of things.But you can see the MSM doing a Brexit and talking the revolution down.
Having outlined Trump's various routes to 270,he's nowhere near as out of it as they'd have you believe.
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Trump on 164 Hillary 203 Toss Ups 171
So Trump needs 106
Ohio (18) Michigan (16) Pennsylvania (20) New Hampshire (4) Maine CD2 (1) Maine (2) North Carolina (15) Virginia (13) Georgia (16) Colorado (9) Nevada (6) New Mexico (5) Arizona (11) Iowa (6)
Ohio+North Carolina+Georgia+Arizona +Iowa=66
I think if Trump loses any of these he's not going to win the second tier which in my opinion are knife edge
Florida 29 +Colorado 9=35
Which leaves him needing 6
So New Hampshire,Maine,Pennsyvlvania,Michigan,Nevada
Just watching Sky and the talking heads are all running Trump down.Someone even said his comments about women were more important than Hillary's email scandal.........seriously,he said some out of line things I get it,but what Hilary did was pontentially criminal.
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The consensus has been Trump needs a monster turnout to have a chance of winning and this appears to be on course. Do you reckon he has any chance at all without Florida?
Much like Brexit,the MSM theory was that it needed a low turnout to get a Leave vote.In actual fact the high turnout saved it.
Hillary's inability to get a crowd tells me-unscientific I know-that she's someone who struggles to motivate voters to come out for her.
edit to take out word 'not'
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The consensus has been Trump needs a monster turnout to have a chance of winning and this appears to be on course. Do you reckon he has any chance at all without Florida?
The maths is simple to me.If he loses Florida,then he needs to pick up Pennsylvania and Colorado.
Don't get me wrong,if he loses Florida,it's going to be tough but paths are still open.
Two weeks ago,he'd have been stumped,but Hillary heading to Michigan tell us it's real close.A lot closer than the bookies odds are implying imo.
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votehillsborough.org
Florida voters have been posting it on Twitter. It's only election day voting though, I didn't realise, so Trump is behind in this county apparently but way ahead of Romney's 2012 vote.
I can't post links as I'm on an Xbox one but the address worked when I clicked on Twitter, not sure why it's not now.
Turnout 65% with a few hours to go...............
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What time will we start to hear news about voter turnout and any indicators of who is doing well in each state? I know the first results will be announced around midnight (GMT), but do we usually get info before this time? I've not paid much attention to previous US elections in the past.
Turnout is reportedly high.This is all anecdotal stuff from tellers at the polling stations.
Haven't seen anything official yet.
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Republicans up 24664 compared to Democrats 21443 in Hillsborough County Florida as of about 40 minutes ago. This county went to Obama in 2012.
Only 1 county but it's potentially a good sign.
where are you getting this data?
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In past elections, news starts flowing in by late afternoon (and sometimes sooner)
Not sure what will happen this time
I'm expecting a lot of Clinton skewed exit polls
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They're trying to spin it as desperation but no way he goes there unless there's some chance.
People are smug about Trump over here: 'you've got to be mental to vote Trump' etc etc. so imagine what it's like over there?? I bet there's a sizeable amount of people who keep quiet about supporting him, even in phone polls. This would be especially true with people who aren't massive fans but see him as a better choice than Hitlery, why attract the grief when you're not particularly passionate about it. Pretend you're not voting and have an easier life.
It could definitely be Brexit 2.0.
Styx does a good one on Trump turning the rust belt red.
'if Trumps actions are any indicator his internal polling is painting a rosier picture than the MSM.The fact that Hillary is there two days before the election means Hillary's internal polling is telling her it's a tight race in Michigan.'
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Interesting that Trump chose to go to Minnesota yesterday as it's considered 1 of the safer blue seats. He talked up the issue of Somali immigration and crime, which is mostly centred around Minnesota, so that could get him votes there. According to this article there isn't much reliable polling date out of the state and they haven't had a poll since October 22nd.
He must think he has some chance if he's going there with a couple of days to go.
Very much so Garincho.
Fascinating.Also worth considering that many people will vote for Trump who haven't voted in decades.
Thats was why I believed Brexit would win.I knew loads of people in that category that rarely vote but were passionate Leavers.There could well be a core of these people that past vote weighting in the polls excludes from projections.
Wow.............can't believe he's gone to Minnesota.Conway must think it's in play.
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Lichtman says 6/13 keys are false.I've been through it myself and I reckon 10/13 are false
The keys, which are explained in depth in Lichtman’s book “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016” are:
- Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.-FALSE-they got crushed
- Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.-FALSE-Bernie Sanders was close
- Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.-FALSE-Obama isn't running
- Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.-FALSE-Libertarian's are running,Greens too
- Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign-TRUE
- Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.-FALSE-Ok the Govt figures say all is rosy.Reality,on the ground,may feel somewhat different for many people.
- Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.-FALSE
- Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.-TRUE
- Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal-FALSE,I'd say HiIlary's email thing is a scandal.
- Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.-TRUE
- Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.-FALSE
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.-FALSE-Hilary isn't charismatic
- Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.-FALSE-Trump is charismatic
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'President Barack Obama wants people in North Carolina to vote for Hillary Clinton, so he’s warning them that Donald Trump would tolerate the support of the Klu Klux Klan if he’s elected president.
“If you accept the support of Klan sympathizers — the Klan — and hesitate when asked about that support, then you’ll tolerate that support when you’re in office,” he said'
Things must be close if he's throwing the kitchen sink at it.
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TRUMP: A much better candidate now in the Home stretch
RIGHT ANGLE: TRUMP FINDS HIS MESSAGEPublished on Nov 2, 2016Bill Whittle saw Donald Trump's speech in Grand Rapids, MI and was thoroughly impressed with his much more disciplined, much more effective messaging.
Steve Green and Scott Ott help to break down some examples.
Sadly can't watch this due to work and time but I saw him speak last night and I really think he's developed as a speaker.He was a giving an ad lib piece in a speech and was telling the crowd how his advisers had been telling him not to ad lib.Very funny.
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't will pour money into states like Michigan and New Mexico that Mrs Clinton has led for months, but where her renewed email scandal gives Mr Trump new hope of victory.
Just days ago it was the Clinton campaign that said it wanted to "run up the score" by stealing Republican states like Texas from Mr Trump.
A poll from Texas released yesterday by CBS/Dixie strategies showed Mr Trump back on firm footing, leading by 13 per cent.
Mrs Clinton, meanwhile, is rapidly losing ground.
Mr Trump hopes to capitalise, leaving the more well-trodden campaign trail in Florida and Ohio on Tuesday for Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, states which have voted consistently Democratic for decades but where the businessman is within striking distance.
In Pennsylvania, won by President Barack Obama by five points in 2012, Mr Trump emphasised the economy.
"Pennsylvania has lost almost 40 percent of its manufacturing jobs since Nafta, a deal signed by Bill Clinton and supported by Hillary Clinton," he said, promising a "fair deal" if he is elected.
He lost out on a key endorsement in neighbouring Ohio, though. John Kasich, Mr Trump's rival during the fight for the Republican nomination and the state's governor, announced he had cast a write-in vote for Senator John McCain.
Paul Ryan, the speaker of the house, revealed on Tuesday that he did vote for "our nominee", but declined to even refer to Mr Trump by name.
The billionaire will not be troubled if other Republicans feel the need to hold their noses before casting a vote in his favour.
He has expanded his pitch to independents and even fringe Democrats amid Mrs Clinton's email controversy, contending that the choice now boils down to him, or chaos.
"We could be facing the very real possibility of a Constitutional crisis," Mr Trump said on Monday night in Michigan, suggesting that Mrs Clinton would find herself on trial during her presidency for jeopardising America's secrets.
"We'd have a criminal trial for a sitting president," he claimed.
Such is the shift in fortunes between the two candidates over the past week that the Clinton campaign had planned a grand victory celebration in New York for election night, complete with a fireworks display over the Hudson River.
The fuses were set to be lit as early as 9:30pm, the New York Post reported, when polls will still be open in much of the US.
It now appears likely that Mrs Clinton, even if she is ultimately victorious, will have to wait quite a bit longer to start the celebrations.
Analysts at Moody's remain confident that Mrs Clinton will prevail, however.
The final installment of the firm's electoral projections shows Mrs Clinton garnering 332 electoral votes to Mr Trump's 206, based in part on improving economic conditions and Mr Obama's popularity.'
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It would of course ruin Michelle 2020.
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Michelle Obama has just deleted her tweets for the last 3 years. Not sure how relevant this is but a strange thing to do at this time. She doesn't want previous tweets supporting Clinton to be circulated when it all collapses in the coming days??
Very interesting news
http://dcwhispers.com/odd-michelle-obama-suddenly-deleting-years-tweets/
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It appears First Lady Michelle Obama’s Twitter account has had about 3 1/2 years of tweets abruptly removed.
The question now, particularly given the heightened scrutiny of Obama administration emails, is WHY?
Has @MichelleObama deleted her tweets for the past 3 and a half years?
— Paul Joseph Watson (@PrisonPlanet) November 1, 2016
A visit to the First Lady’s Twitter account verifies the above. All the tweets of the last 3 1/2 years are now gone. (Including all tweets related to her recent appearances with Hillary Clinton.)'
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To refer to the OP,this is most definitely the most important US Pres election since Reagan,if not before.If trump wins it's a sea change in the culture in Washington
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Independent Media / Discerning Voters may have won it.
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Mike Rivero has an explanation (which fits my own) about why Comey re-opened the FBI's case on HRC's emails.
MP3 : http://media.blubrry.com/rbn/p/content.blubrry.com/rbn/stream_2016-10-28_145959.mp3
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MR says it seems to be related to a sudden shift in Media coverage of the election - something I have been writing about.
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"It was like a switch was hit over night," and suddenly the MSM is writing about Bill Clinton Inc., and other Clinton crimes.
Why? Rivero thinks it was triggered by Trump's strong showing in the early voting.
"They realize that Clinton may not win, and she will not be able to harrass those who are critical, and talk about Clinton law breaking."
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Rivero deserves great credit (along with many others in the Independent Media), in keeping the Truth alive, and getting Trump's message out,
so that a positive Vote could finallly start to break the toxic grip of the cabal.
That's quite a compelling theory but given how quickly the media has turned,I think it makes a lot of sense.
The Most important election in US History?
in Acore Public Forum: tinyurl.com/Acore-Public
Posted
BBC jsut quoting that the only two issues Trump beats Hillary on are fighting terrorism and the economy.BBC then went on to point out to interviewee that these are most americans top two issues